Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mickificki]

Sorry for such a potentially absurd response or question in this thread....

I kick myself for depositing money into a trade account but not proceeding with buying shares of TSLA in april when it was in the $400 range. I kick myself when it dipped a couple weeks ago to 1380.... Even at $2000 a share today, is it foolish for me to not get in today, before the split?

consider this: Tesla is displacing ARAMCO. How much is that worth?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

What is everyone’s Tesla share price estimates for End of year?

Dec 31, 2020 close? $1680.

 

[Nocturnal]

same

regT is fine until you’re diversified enough for PortMar

I was running some math on buying more shares on margin just to sell premium but it doesn't make sense. (not willing to "risk" my core shares either) I don't use too much margin normally so it's no big deal.

 

[elasalle]

Are you saying you sold 50 calls 3000? Are those naked calls, or do you have 5.000 shares to cover them?

now waiting for when to sell next set of CC's. (+just did, sold Sept 3000's now @ $20)

 

[ggr]

Sorry for such a potentially absurd response or question in this thread....

I kick myself for depositing money into a trade account but not proceeding with buying shares of TSLA in april when it was in the $400 range. I kick myself when it dipped a couple weeks ago to 1380.... Even at $2000 a share today, is it foolish for me to not get in today, before the split?

Ayup.

 

[Favguy]

What is everyone’s Tesla share price estimates for End of year?

Goodness knows! But if I had to give a number, baring whole market macro events causing havoc, I'd say about $600

 

[humbaba]

Goodness knows! But if I had to give a number, baring whole market macro events causing havoc, I'd say about $600

I was ready to go ballistic on such a ridiculously bearish sentiment. Oh, wait. The split. sigh I don't think I'll ever get used to the stock price. It was around 300 for so long and since then it just keeps bouncing around. $200, $1000, $400, $2000 and in about a week's time $400 or so again.

 

[Rb48888]

One rule of thumb that I've heard is ask yourself the question "If you owned the stock at today's price, would you keep it or sell it?" If the answer is that you'd keep it at today's price, then it makes sense to buy it at today's price. If today's price would make you want to sell it, then you probably don't want to buy it.

I think more along the lines of would I like to have bought the stock, at today's price, 5-10 years from now. That said, when someone is thoughtfully investing long term, their answers should be the same either way.

One potential pitfall of long-term investors who are focused on short term prices is that if one happens to think the share price is overvalued today, but undervalued long term, they may be inclined to wait on a dip that never comes.

While all stocks will dip, there's no guarantee that any one stock will dip below whatever they think is a fair price today.

This is one reason I generally recommend that fence sitters buy/sell half of their intended position while they are thinking it over.

Since I am generally wrong about short-term price movements, this approach often makes me 50% less wrong.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

So I'd be selling right now if it weren't for inclusion looming large in the near future. I know it's been discussed, but if we know roughly how many shares each major institution needs and roughly how many they currently own....l why can't we just keep a running total of "buying the inclusion should trigger"? Are people/funds doing this and just don't want to share the info? Seems quite doable to me unless I'm missing something.

 

[Artful Dodger]

It's a tug of war today. Not sure whether we are seeing expiration day manipulation by MMs, as many here have suggested, or whether it's people loading up on new calls and unloading many of those 95,000 calls 2000 that expire today, as some others have suggested.

Lol, Call volume was 90K contracts at the $2,000 SP, but Open Interest (O.I.) was only 15K contracts at the end of Options trading yesterday.

Still, with the SP hovering +$50 above that popular $2K Strike Price, there's going to be a real game of chicken to see who blinks first and sells, vs who holds on for a potential late-day rush.

I suspect there is one more factor at play today: an outsized number of Call holders may actually want to excercise their Options to buy shares (S&P comin'), and these folks may counterbalance delta-hedging induced selling, when another Call contract holder decides to 'sell to close' thus cashing out w/o buying shares.

As always, will be facinating to watch, a true master-class in Markets, Economics, Retirement planning, and most especially MARRIAGE COUNSELLING!

Cheers!

 

[lafrisbee]

Dress is a precursor to formal communication, and a support during communication. It establishes the framework, and the message delivered should be assimilated based on ALL the available information.
In Rob's situation there are several aspects he considered. First amongst them was the audience...Cramer's Audience. Cramer wants to be the guy that has his shirt sleeves rolled-up as if he's been working hard all day to get the facts. Cramer wants his audience to see him as having been dressed up earlier in the day, but through out the day he's worked so hard that he needed to take his suit jacket off.
And Cramer wants to be seen as the ONLY guy working that hard for you.
And Cramer knows the sector of his audience that needs to assimilate Rob's information. I think Rob asked what to wear to present the information to the segment of the audience that he and Cramer were trying to influence. And if he didn't "ask" he was told.
Now to my observation... didn't that suit look a little large and dated? Maybe that was on purpose as well, or perhaps Rob's Dad is a little larger than he.

 

[StealthP3D]

consider this: Tesla is displacing ARAMCO. How much is that worth?

Are you asking us to put a price on cleaner air to breath into our lungs and slowing down and reducing all the future impacts of global warming?

It's priceless!

But if you're pointing out how valuable Tesla's energy business could become, well, yeah, that's a very big number!

 

[jbcarioca]

...I have sold some shares, roughly 15% of my TSLA holdings. ..

Just for the record; in the event that other long term TSLA shareholders are ready to sell a bit it is wise to remember that if they're US taxpayers they'll end out with very substantial capital gains. In my case it has ended out with my 2020 gross income higher than I have ever previously had. Thus I'll have hefty estimated tax due on 15th September. For those of us who have not previously faced this it is sometimes easy to forget the estimated tax. I have had this happen before but never quite this large. of course, if you forget to pay, the penalty from the IRS is only 3% from 3Q 2020, although it is compounded daily until paid.

I refer to this as definitely a First World Problem.

 

[Mo City]

So I'd be selling right now if it weren't for inclusion looming large in the near future. I know it's been discussed, but if we know roughly how many shares each major institution needs and roughly how many they currently own....l why can't we just keep a running total of "buying the inclusion should trigger"? Are people/funds doing this and just don't want to share the info? Seems quite doable to me unless I'm missing something.

I suspect there may be a lot a post-split, post-inclusion selling. The run-up to Battery Day should interesting to watch.

 

[ZsoZso]

Just a silly thought: how many Robinhood traders may think like this:
"Oh, this dividend-split thingy on TSLA is a great opportunity to double-dip for free. I buy some shares before 21st Aug., sell them the following week and THEN get issued 4 shares for each that I can sell again after the 31st"

I know that's not how it works and the brokers will take care of transferring the extra shares to the buyer of next week.
The question is how many "noob" traders do not know that and hope to "game the system" ?

 

[Blue horseshoe]

Decided to pull the trigger on a straddle play.
Bought 4 (Oct 2) calls strike $2050
Bought 4 (Oct 2) puts strike $2050
TSLA price at time of trade: ~$2050
cost of straddle $44,710ea = $178,840 total

If price stays around $2050 through Oct 2 max loss is $178,840.

Profit occurs on this volatility bet if the price goes up or down and with the run up before the split and sp500 inclusion I expect a large move and with this trade it doesn't matter if it's up or down.. it just has to move.

 

[lafrisbee]

My theory was a little different as I believe regular short-sellers are fine (other than taking a hit from the rising price). My theory (which has yet to be proven or disproven) is that bad actors (probably market makers) had been running a scheme to float a bunch of synthetic shares they had created out of thin air (due to lack of any real oversight). These shares were used to manipulate the market (mostly depress TSLA share price) and make money but the extra accounting brought about by the split threatens to uncover their shenanigans and they have to make those shares whole (by buying on the open market). This may or may not precipitate a short squeeze.

This is just a wild theory (that there are millions of synthetic shares floating about) I am entertaining MAY be happening - there is no hard evidence of it. And I don't know if this Friday or next Friday would be the date they would have to make good on their shares (I'm leaning towards today). One way they could possible shake enough shares loose is by running the price too high, too quickly and hope they can precipitate a selling frenzy. Even after this has fully played out we may not know the real answer. But if we see another strong rally before the day is out (or before next Friday) I think it adds a lot of credence to this theory.

After reading your opinion I started thinking that is some Hiro *sugar* right there. Perhaps he would smile if he read your post. And perhaps this is just the kind of thing that Elon hired him to come do.

 

[ggr]

it’s not a point of contention.
it’s not dividend income

you keep debating it

i’ve replied to you directly more than once with the mechanics of how it works. yet you keep posting non-factual interpretations. i’m trying to help you understand.

the long, who lent shares or not, gets the extra 4 shares tacked onto his position.

And you keep missing the point @Knightshade is making. Yes, the real holder gets his 4 new shares. But the guy the short borrowed from also needs to get his 4 new shares, and the only way for that to happen is for the short to make him whole, either by buying shares on the open market, or borrowing more. If the short takes no explicit action, the broker will just borrow new shares on his behalf, and add them to both the lender and short's balances. But Tesla did not provide those shares. They came from somewhere else. My only disagreement with @Knightshade's post is that the short won't feel like he had to do anything, and the dumb shorts will just sit there, fat, dumb and happy, in a deeper hole.

 

[astrotoy]

Hate to say this, but . . . yes. YES: KEEP YOUR MOUTH SHUT.

Learn from our experience.

We loaned about $40k to buy my wife's sister her Model 3 last year. Payments have come, BUT they've been less than "like clockwork" despite a signed and very formal loan agreement. This is awkward so I've not brought it up with my wife.

Now that we're at a massive sum of PAPER gains on TSLA, what do you think the odds are that I'll have much leverage on getting those payments back on the agreed-upon schedule?

Those odds would decrease even further if the full extent of our gains was known within the family. So, YES, IMHO it is far, far better to keep your pie hole shut when it comes to TSLA investments. Nothing good will come of it.

Nothing.

My experience is that if you loan money to a close friend or relative, you must assume that it is a gift, not a loan. If the loan payments slow down or stop coming, they will stop communicating with you and you will have lost both money and any relationship you have. The only exception is to take possession of collateral of equivalent value to the loan amount. So if they stop paying, you have their asset and you don't feel taken advantage of and the loan payment is never discussed again.

 

[Singuy]

Yup. They keep saying that every time TSLA rises. But there are too many good news items in the near future for this to be a bubble of any kind. No doubt there will be more ups and downs, but the long term trend will be up.

I don't understand what is going on. Stock pulled back almost 30% from post earning highs due to dead news and transition out of tech. If the split was not announced, we may be in the gutter right now as my other tech stocks with blow out earnings have yet to hit their post earning highs. Tesla was pulling back faster than my other tech stocks at the time. So I think it's too early to call this anything until the dust settles post split, post battery day, post s&p and post q3 deliveries.