Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Right_Said_Fred]

Over in Shanghai Jason Yang released a new video. Buildings look more completed on the outside. And the number of Model 3's ready for shipping is growing.And is there another building or a parking lot being planned to the north of the most recent building? The low one close to the triangular one?

When I watch these GF construction videos, now on three continents simultaneously, I often think of how amazing it is that Tesla’s capex is not exploding. During the Model 3 development and production ramp capex was killing Tesla’s bottom line. Now they are building 3 gigafactories and expanding Fremont, yet capex spending is very much under control. To me this is one of the most important achievements of the management and engineering teams and it gives Tesla a huge (cost) lead over the traditional OEMs.

 

[BlackS]

Is it Monday morning yet?

Not yet...you woke up too early...back to bed now

 

[Artful Dodger]

"Jim Cramer: Tesla Stock Could Go Up Substantially From These Levels" | SMR (3 hrs ago)

 

[obie_fl]

...and did you have the same U.S. Broker during that time? Not a very diverse sample set on which to base a conclusion.

Yep I'm basically one of Fidelity's "dead" clients been with them since the 80's. I was a Peter Lynch fan. Most of my investments are tech from the early 90's rode right through the bubble without noticing. Still hold CSCO, MSFT, Intel from back then. Finally dumped my HP stocks last year for some more TSLA. I sold a few things along the way but not too much. I was pretty much a hands off investor for 25 yrs with just the occasional check in and pruning. Honestly I was just lazy and also held a lot of mutual funds too. The system did work pretty well

 

[juanmedina]

I love that a family sedan is constantly set up against purpose-built sports cars and muscle cars!

I wonder how much the Model S Plaid will be? 150Kish... I want one.

 

[mongo]

Got a reference for your U.K. Sep 3rd for the issue of dividend stocks? And that is NOT what the OP wrote from his Broker: they said 'they don't know exactly when' the dividend shares will be issued. This is a HUGE red flag.

The timeline was to illustrate the TD Ameritrade vs Hargreaves Lansdown timelines though Sept 3rd (approx) would have been more accurate.

Any smart lawyer would not guarantee a date that is dependant on others, that would lead to liability.

From their web site, posted early enough to be actionable.
https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/t/tesla-inc-usd0.001
Click 'subdivision'

Details (last updated 14 Aug 2020)


Tesla Inc has announced that it will carry out a 5 for 1 split of its shares, effective at the open of trading on NASDAQ on 31 August 2020. The split will be completed by giving you a bonus 4 shares in addition to each share you hold at close of business on 28 August, thereby increasing your holding by 5 times.

The price of Tesla Inc shares will adjust to take the split into account as soon as the market opens on 31 August. We expect the share price to be approximately 20% of what it was the day before. This means you’ll have more shares but at a lower price. We don’t expect the overall value of your holding to be affected. The company is conducting the split to reduce the share price to a more accessible level.

It’s expected that the new shares will be issued by 3 September, but this can’t be guaranteed. The new shares will be credited to your portfolio once we’ve been issued with them. Please note that from market open on 31 August, until the shares are credited to you, your holding will show a value of only 20% of its real worth. This will correct itself as soon as the new shares are added to your portfolio. If you sell your shares at any point during this period please bear in mind you are effectively only selling a fifth of your entitled holding and will still get the bonus shares credited shortly after.

Meanwhile TSLA will be trading at ~1/5th it's SP , and every UK stockholder would be denied access to 80% of their rightfully owned TSLA equity from Aug 31 to Sep 2nd.

What happens if a corporate event occurs during those 3 days, or S&P announces after-hrs on Aug 28th, but UK shareholders can only trade 20% of their equity for the next 3 days? Or more, depending on an unspecified what?

That is a risk the users of that brokerage take. Just like their trading period does not line up with the US market. Some UK markets are closed the 31st too, is that HL's responsibility?

Do you think that's a libel lawsuit, or a breech of trust lawsuit? It's going to take more than a snippy blog post to right that wrong. There is huge exposure to liability here.

A random poster accusing a brokerage of lying and other fiscal malfeasance has nothing to do with a breach of trust. Nor is calling said poster on it snippy. If you have actual data to show HL specifically will have the shares pre open August 31st, then post it.

The brokerage is not exposed to any liability, the brokerage disclosed the process and delays at least a week ahead of time. Further, if one takes into account their offshore stock disclaimers that I posted.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Every time I watch these GF construction videos, now on three continents simultaneously, I ponder on how amazing it is that Tesla’s capex is not exploding.

It's the magic of non-recourse local loans (GF3/Shanghai), and Eurozone carbon offsets from FIAT (GF4/Berlin).

Not sure how Giga Texas will be fund yet, but at this point Tesla actually needs places to put all its FCF, with Model 3 ramping to 500K+/yr that's ~$2.5B/yr in gross profit from Model 3 alone.

That's some 4D chess right up in there, wot?

Cheers!

 

[BlackS]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1297066537891713025

Best video of the day

 

[Highway2Heel]

Not necessarily. I mean, it says this is his second time; how'd he not die the first time, I'm pondering?

Hmm??

Meaning...shorting didn’t work pre-split and...there won’t be precautions post-split that will make it work then either...

 

[S3XY]

Thanks a million, literally, to this forum. I’m happy to say this week I’ve joined the Teslanaire club. Started buying the stock in early 2018 after reading Ashley Vance’s biography about Elon, recognized his vision was the right one for doing something constructive to address climate change (by trade, I’m a federal scientist that studies climate effects on endangered species), luckily discovered this discussion board in mid 2018, and went all-in over the next year as I learned everything about Tesla from reading your posts 20-30 minutes a day, everyday. I’ve learned more about investing from this hive mind in the last 2 years than the previous 18 going it alone. My portfolio and prospects for an early retirement and doing good for my family and friends have swollen beyond my wildest dreams and life going forward is irrevocably altered regardless of how the stock may fluctuate over the next decade or more that I continue to hold it. In particular, my thanks for wealth wisdom & technical insights over the last few years to: Neroden, FactChecking, StealthP3D, The Accountant, Reflex Funds, KarenRei & dozens of others that contribute nuggets of gold to this collective.

My family still doesn’t own or drive the cars but unbeknownst to the wife, she’ll find a M3 parked in the garage for her next xmas morning, which’ll be joined by my Cybertruck a few years later. We went solar on our new house several months ago and look forward to driving exclusively on sunpower in the years ahead. We didn’t start out as a wealthy family, and the thought never crossed my mind of owning Teslas a few years ago when I started buying the stock, but it’s just the next logical thing to do. Millions of other families will reach that same conclusion in the years ahead and the fossil fuel era will pass into history as that process reaches its culmination. I just hope that Elon’s brilliant plan and execution of the plan have come soon enough to avoid catastrophic climate consequences later this century—that part of the story is yet unknown and to be written. But at least now we have a fighting chance & we'll have some fun while in the fight! Thanks Elon, thanks TMC. Dan

Can we get something above the 'Love' rating? Congratulations Dan. You and your wife are going to love to go for a drive soon. Over two years since I bought mine and I still try to find excuses to go somewhere.

 

[jerry33]

Why do you think volatility will be reduced? I'm not sure it will. In fact, it may even increase as a much bigger percentage of the float will be locked up in S&P 500 index funds, drastically reducing the number of shares available for daily trading. Lower liquidity tends to exaggerate stock movements (well, that's the theory).

I see your point. I thought that having a goodly percentage of shares locked up would create more stability because any fiddling with phantom shares would show up more (assumes phantom shares are a significant part of the volatility) so there would be less inclination to create them.

 

[BlackS]

Let's take a poll on how much toilet boy has lost in the last 2 weeks:

 

[JusRelax]

Along the topic of naked shorting and being forced to deliver, I just wanted to add this picture from my broker: Ally Investments.

The first time I received this option to enroll in securities lending was this past Monday, 8/17. I have no idea if it's related, but the timing is interesting.

 

[Steve m]

Got a reference for your U.K. Sep 3rd for the issue of dividend stocks? And that is NOT what the OP wrote from his Broker: they said 'they don't know exactly when' the dividend shares will be issued. This is a HUGE red flag.

Meanwhile TSLA will be trading at ~1/5th it's SP , and every UK stockholder would be denied access to 80% of their rightfully owned TSLA equity from Aug 31 to Sep 2nd.

What happens if a corporate event occurs during those 3 days, or S&P announces after-hrs on Aug 28th, but UK shareholders can only trade 20% of their equity for the next 3 days? Or more, depending on an unspecified what?

Do you think that's a libel lawsuit, or a breech of trust lawsuit? It's going to take more than a snippy blog post to right that wrong. There is huge exposure to liability here.

Any shares sold next week will include transfer of the other 4 shares and will be sold as if they were 1 share.

 

[Boomer19]

Got a reference for your U.K. Sep 3rd for the issue of dividend stocks? And that is NOT what the OP wrote from his Broker: they said 'they don't know exactly when' the dividend shares will be issued. This is a HUGE red flag.

Meanwhile TSLA will be trading at ~1/5th it's SP , and every UK stockholder would be denied access to 80% of their rightfully owned TSLA equity from Aug 31 to Sep 2nd.

What happens if a corporate event occurs during those 3 days, or S&P announces after-hrs on Aug 28th, but UK shareholders can only trade 20% of their equity for the next 3 days? Or more, depending on an unspecified what?

Do you think that's a libel lawsuit, or a breech of trust lawsuit? It's going to take more than a snippy blog post to right that wrong. There is huge exposure to liability here.

Brokers and banks always have lots of fine print in their agreements with their customers. Banks don't have to give you your money in a timely fashion if they don't feel like it. Brokers don't have to honor your attempted trades in a timely fashion either. When everything is calm and normal things generally happen in a reasonable way. But if things are chaotic, or your particular institution is having its own troubles, then they can certainly screw you with no legal consequences. To some degree anyway. Certainly delays of a day or several are within the bounds of the legal and possible.

This is true in the US. I assume it's at least as bad in other places, but I don't know.

its possible the original poster misinterpreted the brokers response. cust serv is usually terrible at brokerages, and DTCCs service desk is worse

brokerages will generally relay canned response like
"DTCC's estimated pay date is xxx", or something a little more crisp than that,
dtcc generally gives estimated allocation date,
then theyll credit the participant and update the pay date on the same day
but to mongo point, there can be a hop or two if the structure of the brokerage one is using isnt direct participant of US DTCC...so potential delay (even in this day in age!)

so in this case it doesn’t sound ominous to me. it’s just plain ol brokerage customer service ignorance

as opposed to the brokerage telling the customers that they don’t know the ex date of the split, or that the split shares will be allocated later then the actual pay date - that would be bad

again some brokers allocate corp action proceeds differently..so it depends
but i would imagine all of them give you some 'placeholder' on ex date so that your acct value is inline with market pricing

 

[UCF3]

People who think the S&P inclusion is already priced in should watch this from 1:30 to 1:50:

Not sure if this woman is representative of the average money manager whose funds are benchmarked to the S&P 500, but considering how little she seems to understand about TSLA, I wouldn't be surprised if she's going to just buy it upon inclusion, so she won't have to worry about it.

Here we've been thinking that active fund managers are aware of all the upcoming TSLA catalysts, and that they know it's a no-brainer for them to add TSLA ASAP, but perhaps many have been of the opinion since $1,000 that it'd actually be better to wait until the actual inclusion to add TSLA, because going equalweight TSLA now risks buying at too high a price before they are actually judged on how they perform against it.

I mean, even some people on this forum have been saying S&P inclusion has already been priced in since $1,400.

Indeed Frank. I’m even more bullish on the next two months after seeing that. I thought the run up in TSLA after Q2 P&D report was front running by people like her. If this fund manager hasn’t been front running then that means there is a significant amount of shares that need to be bought in addition to the index funds.

 

[Boomer19]

Let's take a poll on how much toilet boy has lost in the last 2 weeks:

View attachment 579384

just keeps doubling down...unbelievable!
sometimes life becomes much more beautiful when you simply admit youre wrong and move on....apparently not in his miserable case

 

[Boomer19]

Along the topic of naked shorting and being forced to deliver, I just wanted to add this picture from my broker: Ally Investments.

The first time I received this option to enroll in securities lending was this past Monday, 8/17. I have no idea if it's related, but the timing is interesting.

i can tell you that as of right now, tsla is easy and cheap to borrow (think general collateral cheap). so maybe just coincidence, or maybe not. its gotta turn at some point!

 

[Curt Renz]

My brokerage assured me that any TSLA trades during the coming week will include transfer of the rights to the dividend shares (stock split) that will be distributed at the end of the week.

 

[astrotoy]

View attachment 579327

At least in the US, if you donate the shares of stock, and not sell, pay the taxes and then donate, both the charity and you are much better off.

The charity gets the full value of the donated shares (any charity worth its salt has a policy that they immediately sell any stock that they receive - not taking any market risk). You get the full value of the stock as a charitable donation (subject to your income and carryover rules) and you don't have to pay any capital gains taxes. In addition, if the person is donating 10,000 shares (worth today $20M) then most probably they would be over the estate tax limit and save additional potential estate tax. If you are in a high tax bracket, this could mean that not only does the charity receive the full value of the stock donation, but you could be saving 40% or more in future estate taxes, as well as getting federal and state income tax deductions (current limit is 30% of AGI if contribution is securities and not cash, with carryover allowed for 5 years). If you are donating and have large pretax IRAs, this would be a very good time to convert to a Roth IRA, since you can shield a good portion of the income tax you would have to pay with the tax deduction from the contribution.

Tax accountants and other experts, please correct me or make additional comments.