Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

TSLA is worth ~36% of GOOGL. Is it really that far out of whack to think about it being more valuable in the next few years?

TSLA triples in price while GOOGL holds flat and you have that.

TSLA quadruples in price while GOOGLE rises by less than 33% and you have that.

Sure it'll take some time to happen but do you doubt it will?

How about AAPL? (double the TSLA numbers from above)

Only about 10 companies ahead of TSLA on the market cap list now.

* AAPL
* AMZN
* MSFT
* GOOG / GOOGL
* FB
* BABA
* BRK.B / BRK.A
* V
* TSM
* JNJ

TSLA should jump 3 or so spots just in the coming week or two.

And still those people will somehow think TSLA is a better value when it's several multiples more expensive than it is now. They'll be drawn in by all the press coverage as TSLA eventually is considered legit and the press stops calling it overpriced. Yes that will take a while too, but the same person that wouldn't buy it at 300 will somehow think it cheap in a few years at several times that price.

I'm just saying the general public in which most people knows nothing about stock sees Tesla being 2000/share, they instantly draw comparison to other stocks over 1-2k, namely amazon and google. Also most people don't even realize Amazon is a stock that's 3k. Most people think stocks are generally 300 dollars or less. Sub 100 dollars being more of a normal stock price. They don't understand valuations, they just understand stock prices. MSM doesn't help either because they want flashy headlines like 2000 dollars!

 

[dhanson865]

I'm just saying the general public in which most people knows nothing about stock sees Tesla being 2000/share, they instantly draw comparison to other stocks over 1-2k, namely amazon and google. Also most people don't even realize Amazon is a stock that's 3k. Most people think stocks are generally 300 dollars or less. Sub 100 dollars being more of a normal stock price. They don't understand valuations, they just understand stock prices. MSM doesn't help either because they want flashy headlines like 2000 dollars!

I understand, I just took it as a moment to reflect on the ratios and do a little mental math to see where we'd have to go. I needed a scratch pad and had to look up the top marketcap list so it didn't take much more effort to turn it into a brain dump post. Half in reply to you, half more of a "hmm what if".

 

[Boomer19]

Since this is the weekend, I thought I'd post a fascinating retrospective clip of Cathie Wood of ARK Investing, in one of her first interviews on CNBC, way back in February 2015. She had the same strident confidence about Tesla then that she has now. It's hilarious to watch the other commentators try to belittle and disparage her. The SP was 200 then, so a 10-Bagger since. Guess she gets the last laugh .

Tesla, the Apple of autos: Pro

amazing

wapner (a chanos p!ssboy) arrogantly laughed at her more than once. he’s a smug *#%^”

josh brown at least understood her frame of reference and gave her credit for that.
and stephanie link (usually the consummate professional) was at least more respectful with her argument, but clearly took for granted, at the time, that big auto would just wake up one day and decide to crush tesla.

cathie wood still proving to be right, except for her 3 year head start estimate. probably longer now due to inaction by big auto.

stephanie link and countless others continue to be wrong on the competition angle...5.5 years later

 

[pharma5]

Quick 2 cents - that PCT app connects to a much larger family which has issued patents in all IP5 markets. Don't know how practical/deployed the tech is, or how tied to Tesla, but there is a decent amount of patenting going on.

In U.S., Amprius has 25 issued patents, the most recent of which is US Pat No 10,707,484 (issued July 7th):
United States Patent: 10707484

Am grateful to folks on this thread for posting and discussing great investor content.

The Cui patent application is
WO2011119614
And can be found here
Espacenet - Origineel document
It did result in Two European patents

Espacenet - Origineel document


Espacenet - Origineel document

 

[pharma5]

In U.S., Amprius has 25 issued patents, the most recent of which is US Pat No 10,707,484 (issued July 7th):
United States Patent: 10707484

In contrast, Tesla's most recent published app from July is or novel electrolytes for Li-metal / anode-free batteries:
United States Patent Application: 0200220220

 

[elasalle]

California Fire Map: Active Wildfires

 

[Gwgan]

9 Defenses Against The Biden Tax Increases
#8

Defer Tesla. The credit is gone but might come back. Buy the car in 2021.

 

[jerry33]

Defer Tesla. The credit is gone but might come back. Buy the car in 2021.

This makes it appear as if the only reason to purchase a Tesla is reduced car expenses because otherwise no one would purchase an inferior driving experience. The truth is that Tesla is a superior driving experience and the credit or lack thereof make almost zero difference, as has been shown by Tesla's sales volumes.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

so, what to expect from tomorrow? Monday gap up? SP hit because of a no volume week?

My best guess is +/- 15%.

Is that you, Adam Jonas?

 

[Unpilot]

Is that you, Adam Jonas?

Can't be...range far to narrow.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

I'm just saying the general public in which most people knows nothing about stock sees Tesla being 2000/share, they instantly draw comparison to other stocks over 1-2k, namely amazon and google. Also most people don't even realize Amazon is a stock that's 3k. Most people think stocks are generally 300 dollars or less. Sub 100 dollars being more of a normal stock price. They don't understand valuations, they just understand stock prices. MSM doesn't help either because they want flashy headlines like 2000 dollars!

Good thing then that TSLA will be at 400 in a week time. The general public will no longer see it as expensive or overvalued. This is why I am really looking forward to the stock split. It will make TSLA look cheap again, even when it's not. It's so stupid, but that's how it works for a lot of people.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Good thing then that TSLA will be at 400 in a week time. The general public will no longer see it as expensive or overvalued. This is why I am really looking forward to the stock split. It will make TSLA look cheap again, even when it's not. It's so stupid, but that's how it works for a lot of people.

It 'may' be $500... It's all perception....like i tell my son and everyone else 'if you think its expensive now...keep waiting and pay more later'

 

[HG Wells]

Good thing then that TSLA will be at 400 in a week time. The general public will no longer see it as expensive or overvalued. This is why I am really looking forward to the stock split. It will make TSLA look cheap again, even when it's not. It's so stupid, but that's how it works for a lot of people.

OR not having heard of the split they think the price has collapsed and its time to BUY !

 

[aubreymcfato]

Casey Neistat, "king of vloggers",
released a video of a LA to SF trip he made in his Tesla to his 12.2 millions subs.
He doesn't even mention it but there is a lot of driving and charging, Tesla all over the places.
Makes it look like very natural, even a 500mile roadtrip.

 

[astrotoy]

In my preretirement life I was founder and CEO of a non-profit foundation. Two of our board members were founders and CEO's of Fortune 500 and 1000 companies. When asked about his longevity, one of them always replied, "I was CEO for 44 quarters." Unlike Musk, his company had merged with another big company, so he did not own anywhere near 20% of the company. It was a Silicon Valley based technology company (not software), but he had to constantly focus on the P/L of the company quarter by quarter, like the vast majority of CEO's. That focus, I believe, is largely responsible for most companies, including Tesla's major competitors, to be unable to take the long view, as evidenced by Musk's comment in 2015 that Tesla wouldn't be profitable until 2020. It also is responsible for so much of the focus on the day to day performance of the stock price (why did TSLA go up or down today?) is more important than asking the question about the long view. For a company like GM, Ford, VW, Toyota, etc. to completely reengineer itself, laying off huge numbers of employees, retooling its operations, restructure to become highly vertically integrated, and then settling in for years of unprofitability, would mean that the CEO would be quickly out of a job.

 

[gabeincal]

47700 kato is directly opposite Amprius 1180 Page in this Google street view as per Under the Tesla sign. Google Maps

Yeah, made a mistake on the addresses.. But to make up for said mistake, I went and did some fieldwork.

 

[ZsoZso]

Tesla has a job opening in Dartmouth, Nova Scotia for Cell Materials Engineer:
Cell Materials Engineer - Tesla Canada | Tesla

Dartmouth is right across the bay of Dalhousie University, where Jeff Dahn's research lab is located:

Does that mean Tesla is opening a battery research lab there ?

 

[Rarity]

For a company like GM, Ford, VW, Toyota, etc. to completely reengineer itself, laying off huge numbers of employees, retooling its operations, restructure to become highly vertically integrated, and then settling in for years of unprofitability, would mean that the CEO would be quickly out of a job.

And the dividend... Unless they can attract a different set of investors, they have to maintain their dividend.

It will be interesting to see the type of investor base that Tesla will have post-S&P.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Good thing then that TSLA will be at 400 in a week time. The general public will no longer see it as expensive or overvalued. This is why I am really looking forward to the stock split. It will make TSLA look cheap again, even when it's not. It's so stupid, but that's how it works for a lot of people.

The "general public" does not own stock. Those who do own any significant amount of stock are not quite that stupid.

The run-up of 50% since the split makes no fundamental sense. There wasn't anybody, even the most bullish here, who were saying before the split was announced that the stock should be 50% (or even 20%) higher by the end of August. There was much speculation about how high it could go upon S&P 500 inclusion, but that is yet to come. Battery day is yet to come. So whatever has caused it to go up 50%, perhaps fear on the part of the shorts or some mysterious accounting related to the split that may screw those with naked shorts, it all goes away on August 31st. My guess is that this will become clear, and this coming week will see the last of this mystery rise, with only the last stragglers participating so fairly muted. And then the next week will be down, maybe one third of what the final split rise turns out to be after the coming week. Maybe even down hard on the 28th in anticipation.

So back to 1750 or so by September 4? Of course all bets are off if S&P 500 inclusion is announced. So that wild card will prevent the stock from falling too far. But I think the week starting August 31 is likely to be rather tricky for traders.

I expect I'll write a few puts for fun this coming week, and then not play the week after. And perhaps even turn some calls into a bull spread to protect my gains.

 

[dww12]

Yeah, made a mistake on the addresses.. But to make up for said mistake, I went and did some fieldwork.

Wow, why am I watching dirt being pushed around in Austin, that looks like some interesting sugar!