Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Lycanthrope]

Oh i contemplated that for days but I think a plaid X or S will take at least a year to appear in Europe. Can’t stand my BMW 3series anymore, in need of a decent car!

Less Plaid at this moment, I need an X still for my family, a Performance is fine, but I'm more thinking potential facelift/battery improvements.

Anyway, I asked for a trade-in from Tesla, see what they come up with.

I've so much frikkin' money right now, I fancy a treat...

(OK, I've a beautiful XP100DL+ now, but I it's a bit the end of the crappy MX's and I really felt it driving to France with the slower charging speed compared to all the Model 3's)

 

[Sofie]

Utter idiocy. I've bought all my Teslas using money made by trading TSLA. Absolutely the best way to do it. I don't regret spending anything. What a loss it would have been to make more money instead of enjoying owning the cars.

Yes! If that’s what makes you happy, don’t let a single soul try to tell or reason with you otherwise!!!!

 

[S3XY]

@SarahsDad, awesome article find, a must read for all. Note this was written in 2007, before the original Tesla Roadster, before the iPhone. Amprius Technology has been perfecting this new battery for over 13 years. Coincidence? I think not.


"The new technology, developed through research led by Yi Cui, assistant professor of materials science and engineering, produces 10 times the amount of electricity of existing lithium-ion, known as Li-ion, batteries...

The breakthrough is described in a paper, "High-performance lithium battery anodes using silicon nanowires,"published online Dec. 16 in Nature Nanotechnology, written by Cui, his graduate chemistry student Candace Chan and five others.

The greatly expanded storage capacity could make Li-ion batteries attractive to electric car manufacturers. Cui suggested that they could also be used in homes or offices to store electricity generated by rooftop solar panels."


If Battery Day only reveals technology better by only 2X, let alone 10X, than existing lithium-ion batteries, this will be a game changer.
If Tesla announces that the new technology is already in production, then Tesla's lead will become insurmountable.
The best has yet to come.

I have to think, given all the years that have passed with no announcements, that this technology has one of the usual "buts" that come along with many battery breakthroughs. It's probably either too expensive to mass produce, does not withstand many charge cycles, or can't handle fast charge rates. Or maybe Tesla's interest revolved around the capacitor version before Elon changed his view on their usefulness.

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Evacuation orders East of Mission Boulevard, does not cover Tesla Factory.

View attachment 579641

Link to map: https://nifc.maps.arcgis.com/apps/V...9d&extent=-123.2395,36.6849,-119.5618,38.1032

Red is mandatory evacuation order, yellow means standby/be prepared to leave on a moment’s notice.

This is the 2nd largest fire in California history

For those of us not familiar with the area - can anyone plot the Tesla factory / holdings on this map?

Hope everyone is safe and whole bunch of rain shows up

 

[Sofie]

I remember when TMCers used to joke that the time to sell Tesla was when Cramer becomes bullish. I kinda like the new Cramer though.

He has taken on a less snakelike persona to me now. I mean, he actually sounded um, nicer I guess is the word...

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

What’s the best resource/guide for learning how to use options wisely?

You could start with this free course: Free Beginner Options Trading Course from Option Alpha

 

[StealthP3D]

But this is largely because Tesla is the same sort of phenomenon as Apple -- a company devoted to something noble that becomes (indeed, must become) a huge financial success seemingly by accident.

I agree that Tesla has noble goals. I'm flabbergasted that you consider Apple's goals comparable or noble.

 

[Sofie]

Important for people to set up different long term and trading accounts. They can track their trading account to see just how smart they are for not HODLing their TSLA indefinitely, or their stocks in general, but trading their way to riches.

I can state with confidence that it was the best thing I ever did concerning TSLA, and although my short term trading account is looking so much better of late, my long term holdings are just shocking. Routinely making daily gains that surpass what I thought were my initial large investments from years ago.

So yeah, I do not qualify as smart based on my trading account. My long term accounts OTOH....maybe.

This is exactly why I could never sell TSLA. I hear over and over again of all the stories of people who deeply and sorrowfully regretted that decision. I’m sure that day will someday come and make sense, for me in general, but that day, is definitely not today but in a very very long time from now.

 

[Sofie]

Agreed...however Google owns 10% of SpaceX....so i am invested in $GOOGL as well Hopefully this split will give more exposure to investors that did not have a chance to get in.

Yes! And part of me wonders if in a few months with elections and all the utter turmoil that ensues along with that dramatic but majorly important event, the share price may drop a bit too.

 

[BlackS]

Yes! And part of me wonders if in a few months with elections and all the utter turmoil that ensues along with that dramatic but majorly important event, the share price may drop a bit too.

$TSLA like all other stocks will rise and drop...what differentiates $TSLA is the future potential returns that will be unprecedented if they continue to execute like they have been.

 

[printf42]

I do have to admit - seeing that map of the evacuation area and the "be ready to go" area - did make me pause for a sec. but that is primarily as I dont know the area

The factory is only a few hundred meters from bay water in a creek. There are major residential areas between the factory and nearby mountains. If the fire burns that far, we have much bigger issues to worry about.

 

[KevinR]

My near-term predictions (aka SWAG)

1. S&P inclusion announcement on August 31st

· SP continues to build in anticipation of this

2. Tesla announces additional share offering within a week after the inclusion announcement.

· A token offering as part of the S&P inclusion negotiations

· This will continue the build the SP (with more retail buyers now)

3. Battery day & Annual shareholder meeting will focus on battery technology, increased range, & highlight the growing Tesla Energy business. Surprises may be moving the timeline for the Roadster & Cybertruck. FSD will be getting closer…still “soon”

· The SP may get a modest bump from this.

· Wall street will still be unable to comprehend the big picture

4. Design refreshes on the S & X will wait until after September 30th

· Announcing on the 22nd would steal their own thunder

· Announcing anything sooner than the 22nd would Osborn 3rd quarter sales

· The effect on SP will be neutral

HODL if you can. Enjoy the ride.

 

[amolina]

What do you all think about an automated cell production line for semi in Nevada that does not require so much labor. What could be the possibility of producing semi in nevada?

 

[Sofie]

$TSLA like all other stocks will rise and drop...what differentiates $TSLA is the future potential returns that will be unprecedented if they continue to execute like they have been.

Absolutely! I’m just hoping for a slight drop around that time so I can put a large amount in at once lol. But for now, dollar cost averaging has served me well because that “dip” I’m hoping for may never come.

 

[SarahsDad]

What’s the best resource/guide for learning how to use options wisely?

Great simplified overview of Options Basics here - it's long but comprehensive and easy to understand.

 

[Bet TSLA]

I agree that Tesla has noble goals. I'm flabbergasted that you consider Apple's goals comparable or noble.

That's because Apple has been subjected to the same level of FUD as Tesla, and you are the victim of that. If you aren't seriously paying attention (similar to how you are paying attention to Tesla now), pretty much you are utterly deluded by a deluge of lies. This has slowed for Apple in recent years as being obviously hugely successful has reduced the level of FUD and the monstrous short interest has decreased somewhat.

Although I agree that making wonderful products that delight customers and change for the better the way they live is not as noble as saving humanity from destruction.

 

[mikevbf]

Since it is the weekend I thought I would share a long form post I cooked up:

Is Tesla Worth Double Toyota?

It’s 8/23/20. After days, weeks and months of TSLA stock and thus valuation booming, to nearly double that of what was the largest automotive company Toyota, I thought it a good moment to take a step back and contemplate the question: “Is Tesla actually worth double Toyota?"

Toyota sells a little over 10 million cars a year. With Tesla worth double Toyota it would eventually need to make double the number of cars as Toyota, right? Even if Tesla’s automotive sales grow at a 50% CAGR, they will not sell double the cars of Toyota until around 2030. Based on a straight forward Automaker A compared to Automaker B perspective, selling your TSLA stock would seem a no brainer.

But Tesla is not a straight forward automotive company. To start with, there is an assumption in the above that Toyota is going to continue selling at the same levels for the next decade. If new car sales are going electric over that decade, my guess is companies like Toyota are going to have a really tough time making the transition while maintaining their sales and profit numbers.

Add to that, each Tesla sold is also a software profit opportunity starting with an ever increasingly priced FSD package currently sold for $8000. And going forward Tesla will have many more lucrative software opportunities in areas such as music and entertainment. There are two major take aways here: 1, Tesla does not need to reach level 5 autonomy in order to become hugely profitable; 2, Tesla selling a car is not the same as another auto maker selling a car, the margin opportunity is much greater per unit sold. And if Tesla does not choose to take those margins, but instead, continually discount their cars, then what do think happens to the sales of companies the like of Toyota who do not have access to the same lucrative software capital streams?

And then there is the whole energy business. 9 of the top 10 revenue companies in the world are either energy or automotive companies with energy companies leading the pack. Tesla is positioned to dominate in the multi trillion dollar energy market with its solar, batteries, and Autobidder. When this and everything else mentioned above are taken into account, Tesla starts to make sense at double the value of Toyota and in the future many more than double Toyota or any other auto maker. And I didn’t even get into the machine that builds the machine, sheer pace of innovation, and Tesla’s pool of current and future engineering talent.

But in the end to be valued so highly, Tesla needs to execute on their plans. So, there is risk. Remember investing long term is essentially gauging the total opportunity of a company minus future risks to capturing that opportunity over time. Place your bets according to your research, beliefs, and financial situation.

 

[mongo]

What do you all think about an automated cell production line for semi in Nevada that does not require so much labor. What could be the possibility of producing semi in nevada?

Semi will be built at Texas, as (most likely) will the cells that go into it.
From Q2 call
Tesla (TSLA) Q2 2020 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool

So if anyone is interested in looking at a Giga Texas with engineering, production, whatever the case may be, please let us know. This is -- we're going to be doing a major factory there, and it's also where we'll be doing Cybertruck there, the Tesla Semi. And we'll be doing Model 3 and Y for the eastern half of North America. Now at the same time, I want to say, we will continue to grow in California, but we expect California to do Model S and X for worldwide consumption and 3 and Y for the western half of North America.

 

[gabeincal]

View attachment 579676

1180 Page Avenue is across the street to the south of Tesla's Page Ave site. Amprius would have a front row view of the new Roadrunner plant currently being constructed across the street. I suspect Tesla would be developing a Silicon anode either through some association with a company like Amprius or via their rumoured aquisition of SilLion. Although this may not be fully developed for the Roadrunner cells that will be featured at Battery Day. However I am expecting a surprise of some kind.

This is the same building they're upgrading right now, including a new electric feed from PG&E to up manufacturing capacity. Something is brewing... Thank you for the information!!!

 

[mongo]

This is the same building they're upgrading right now, including a new electric feed from PG&E to up manufacturing capacity. Something is brewing... Thank you for the information!!!

Just to be clear, Roadrunner is at 47700 Kato and 1055 Page Ave, not 1180 Page (Amprius).
Tesla “PROJECT ROADRUNNER” Location Might Turn Into Serious Production Site