Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[elasalle]

California Fire Map: Active Wildfires

 

[Gwgan]

9 Defenses Against The Biden Tax Increases
#8

Defer Tesla. The credit is gone but might come back. Buy the car in 2021.

 

[jerry33]

Defer Tesla. The credit is gone but might come back. Buy the car in 2021.

This makes it appear as if the only reason to purchase a Tesla is reduced car expenses because otherwise no one would purchase an inferior driving experience. The truth is that Tesla is a superior driving experience and the credit or lack thereof make almost zero difference, as has been shown by Tesla's sales volumes.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

so, what to expect from tomorrow? Monday gap up? SP hit because of a no volume week?

My best guess is +/- 15%.

Is that you, Adam Jonas?

 

[Unpilot]

Is that you, Adam Jonas?

Can't be...range far to narrow.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

I'm just saying the general public in which most people knows nothing about stock sees Tesla being 2000/share, they instantly draw comparison to other stocks over 1-2k, namely amazon and google. Also most people don't even realize Amazon is a stock that's 3k. Most people think stocks are generally 300 dollars or less. Sub 100 dollars being more of a normal stock price. They don't understand valuations, they just understand stock prices. MSM doesn't help either because they want flashy headlines like 2000 dollars!

Good thing then that TSLA will be at 400 in a week time. The general public will no longer see it as expensive or overvalued. This is why I am really looking forward to the stock split. It will make TSLA look cheap again, even when it's not. It's so stupid, but that's how it works for a lot of people.

 

[BlackS]

Good thing then that TSLA will be at 400 in a week time. The general public will no longer see it as expensive or overvalued. This is why I am really looking forward to the stock split. It will make TSLA look cheap again, even when it's not. It's so stupid, but that's how it works for a lot of people.

It 'may' be $500... It's all perception....like i tell my son and everyone else 'if you think its expensive now...keep waiting and pay more later'

 

[HG Wells]

Good thing then that TSLA will be at 400 in a week time. The general public will no longer see it as expensive or overvalued. This is why I am really looking forward to the stock split. It will make TSLA look cheap again, even when it's not. It's so stupid, but that's how it works for a lot of people.

OR not having heard of the split they think the price has collapsed and its time to BUY !

 

[aubreymcfato]

Casey Neistat, "king of vloggers",
released a video of a LA to SF trip he made in his Tesla to his 12.2 millions subs.
He doesn't even mention it but there is a lot of driving and charging, Tesla all over the places.
Makes it look like very natural, even a 500mile roadtrip.

 

[astrotoy]

In my preretirement life I was founder and CEO of a non-profit foundation. Two of our board members were founders and CEO's of Fortune 500 and 1000 companies. When asked about his longevity, one of them always replied, "I was CEO for 44 quarters." Unlike Musk, his company had merged with another big company, so he did not own anywhere near 20% of the company. It was a Silicon Valley based technology company (not software), but he had to constantly focus on the P/L of the company quarter by quarter, like the vast majority of CEO's. That focus, I believe, is largely responsible for most companies, including Tesla's major competitors, to be unable to take the long view, as evidenced by Musk's comment in 2015 that Tesla wouldn't be profitable until 2020. It also is responsible for so much of the focus on the day to day performance of the stock price (why did TSLA go up or down today?) is more important than asking the question about the long view. For a company like GM, Ford, VW, Toyota, etc. to completely reengineer itself, laying off huge numbers of employees, retooling its operations, restructure to become highly vertically integrated, and then settling in for years of unprofitability, would mean that the CEO would be quickly out of a job.

 

[gabeincal]

47700 kato is directly opposite Amprius 1180 Page in this Google street view as per Under the Tesla sign. Google Maps

Yeah, made a mistake on the addresses.. But to make up for said mistake, I went and did some fieldwork.

 

[ZsoZso]

Tesla has a job opening in Dartmouth, Nova Scotia for Cell Materials Engineer:
Cell Materials Engineer - Tesla Canada | Tesla

Dartmouth is right across the bay of Dalhousie University, where Jeff Dahn's research lab is located:

Does that mean Tesla is opening a battery research lab there ?

 

[Rarity]

For a company like GM, Ford, VW, Toyota, etc. to completely reengineer itself, laying off huge numbers of employees, retooling its operations, restructure to become highly vertically integrated, and then settling in for years of unprofitability, would mean that the CEO would be quickly out of a job.

And the dividend... Unless they can attract a different set of investors, they have to maintain their dividend.

It will be interesting to see the type of investor base that Tesla will have post-S&P.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Good thing then that TSLA will be at 400 in a week time. The general public will no longer see it as expensive or overvalued. This is why I am really looking forward to the stock split. It will make TSLA look cheap again, even when it's not. It's so stupid, but that's how it works for a lot of people.

The "general public" does not own stock. Those who do own any significant amount of stock are not quite that stupid.

The run-up of 50% since the split makes no fundamental sense. There wasn't anybody, even the most bullish here, who were saying before the split was announced that the stock should be 50% (or even 20%) higher by the end of August. There was much speculation about how high it could go upon S&P 500 inclusion, but that is yet to come. Battery day is yet to come. So whatever has caused it to go up 50%, perhaps fear on the part of the shorts or some mysterious accounting related to the split that may screw those with naked shorts, it all goes away on August 31st. My guess is that this will become clear, and this coming week will see the last of this mystery rise, with only the last stragglers participating so fairly muted. And then the next week will be down, maybe one third of what the final split rise turns out to be after the coming week. Maybe even down hard on the 28th in anticipation.

So back to 1750 or so by September 4? Of course all bets are off if S&P 500 inclusion is announced. So that wild card will prevent the stock from falling too far. But I think the week starting August 31 is likely to be rather tricky for traders.

I expect I'll write a few puts for fun this coming week, and then not play the week after. And perhaps even turn some calls into a bull spread to protect my gains.

 

[dww12]

Yeah, made a mistake on the addresses.. But to make up for said mistake, I went and did some fieldwork.

Wow, why am I watching dirt being pushed around in Austin, that looks like some interesting sugar!

 

[Beltsbear]

And the dividend... Unless they can attract a different set of investors, they have to maintain their dividend.

It will be interesting to see the type of investor base that Tesla will have post-S&P.

Ford will probably not have enough earnings to continue paying the dividend. It will be years before they do again If they get their act together at all. There seem to be no plans big enough to matter in the electric vehicle space. Until they have GF1 level ambitions, they are screwed.

 

[gabeincal]

Wow, why am I watching dirt being pushed around in Austin, that looks like some interesting sugar!

Happy to take more - just ask for location.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

The "general public" does not own stock. Those who do own any significant amount of stock are not quite that stupid.

The run-up of 50% since the split makes no fundamental sense. There wasn't anybody, even the most bullish here, who were saying before the split was announced that the stock should be 50% (or even 20%) higher by the end of August. There was much speculation about how high it could go upon S&P 500 inclusion, but that is yet to come. Battery day is yet to come. So whatever has caused it to go up 50%, perhaps fear on the part of the shorts or some mysterious accounting related to the split that may screw those with naked shorts, it all goes away on August 31st. My guess is that this will become clear, and this coming week will see the last of this mystery rise, with only the last stragglers participating so fairly muted. And then the next week will be down, maybe one third of what the final split rise turns out to be after the coming week. Maybe even down hard on the 28th in anticipation.

So back to 1750 or so by September 4? Of course all bets are off if S&P 500 inclusion is announced. So that wild card will prevent the stock from falling too far. But I think the week starting August 31 is likely to be rather tricky for traders.

I expect I'll write a few puts for fun this coming week, and then not play the week after. And perhaps even turn some calls into a bull spread to protect my gains.

So you're just going to ignore that the stock was sold off after blowout Q2 earnings and went from 1660 down to 1400 before the 50% rise? A Q2 earnings where Tesla reiterated 500k+ deliveries meaning a very large ramp in production and delivieries in 2nd half 2020?

A "logical view" of the stocks trading since Q2 earnings is that it should have been at least 1700 after Q2 earnings . That 50% rally quickly goes to down a 20% rally. Kinda crazy how people forget the stock trading action after Q4 and Q1 earnings.

Edit: Also yes there were some of us saying that Tesla could be as high as 2,500 by the end of 2020 and that the stock could rally hard in anticipation of production ramping in Q3. So 2,000 at the end of August is not surprising to some of us

 

[Prunesquallor]

Yeah, made a mistake on the addresses.. But to make up for said mistake, I went and did some fieldwork.

I heard the Shorty Air Force had to downsize. You might consider signing up!

 

[dl003]

The "general public" does not own stock. Those who do own any significant amount of stock are not quite that stupid.

The run-up of 50% since the split makes no fundamental sense. There wasn't anybody, even the most bullish here, who were saying before the split was announced that the stock should be 50% (or even 20%) higher by the end of August. There was much speculation about how high it could go upon S&P 500 inclusion, but that is yet to come. Battery day is yet to come. So whatever has caused it to go up 50%, perhaps fear on the part of the shorts or some mysterious accounting related to the split that may screw those with naked shorts, it all goes away on August 31st. My guess is that this will become clear, and this coming week will see the last of this mystery rise, with only the last stragglers participating so fairly muted. And then the next week will be down, maybe one third of what the final split rise turns out to be after the coming week. Maybe even down hard on the 28th in anticipation.

So back to 1750 or so by September 4? Of course all bets are off if S&P 500 inclusion is announced. So that wild card will prevent the stock from falling too far. But I think the week starting August 31 is likely to be rather tricky for traders.

I expect I'll write a few puts for fun this coming week, and then not play the week after. And perhaps even turn some calls into a bull spread to protect my gains.

Does it make any sense that TSLA rose 60% earlier this year off a profitable Q4? Its still the same company. The earning report didnt change the fundamentals one bit. It only changed the public perception of TSLA and its all that matters. The same is going on with this stock split. We dont know whats going on on the collective mind of the market, but this "doesnt change the fundamentals" narrative is pretty meaningless. If the fundamentals mattered that much in the short terms, we should see SP magically go up with every car delivered, every R&D breakthrough, every wall erected, etc... but it doesnt.