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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by AudubonB, Dec 28, 2018.

  1. Zero CO2

    Zero CO2 a long term goal

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    so when do we officially start using post split SP I am noticing a lot of folks quoting SP sometimes pre-split and sometimes post-split ... so we closed today at

    $2,238.75 /$447.75... thats better now the $500-$550 projections make more sense

    i have to adjust my mind to the new SP ... i am starting now ..i am pretty slow to adjust :D
     
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  2. StarFoxisDown!

    StarFoxisDown! Active Member

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    #196342 StarFoxisDown!, Aug 27, 2020
    Last edited: Aug 27, 2020
    Your response is exactly what I'm talking about. That's what I'm banking on. Q2 results were outstanding...... but again Tesla's potential was masked because of Covid, which limited production from taking that next leg up. Production was largely even from Q1, Q2, Q2/Q3/Q4(2019) where production has been in this range of 90k-110k per quarter. Tesla did an amazing job continuing to leverage operations and continue efficiency gains during Q1 and Q2 this year(which is why I call Q1/Q2 earnings outstanding), but if you're just looking at the quick figures(which Wall st and investors mostly do), you're seeing a company that's making strides but not fundamentally taking a next level stage in it's growth and it's earnings potential/power.

    What Q3 represents is that substantial next level step of production that will unlock that earnings potential/power. Practically every analyst, even the bullish ones, are underestimating Q3 and Q4 this year.

    Battery Day I have no opinion of when it comes to stock action and what will happen.
     
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  3. smorgasbord

    smorgasbord Active Member

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    From Volkswagen ID3 has 'massive' software problems, as company begins year of EV introductions - Electrek

     
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  4. agastya

    agastya Member

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  5. BlackS

    BlackS Supporting Member

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    Either $2249.98 OR $2299.98 give or take a few pennies :)
     
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  6. wipster

    wipster Gold Member

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    You sure he didn't mean for the temperature? Heck my 2003 E320 did that!
     
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  7. Nocturnal

    Nocturnal Supporting Member

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    Train with "100s" of model 3s and Xs spotted heading toward Denmark/Sweden. Are the shorts....Finnish(ed)? :D

    https://twitter.com/mortenlund89/status/1298706950922874880?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1298706950922874880|twgr^&ref_url=https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/a-train-with-hundreds-of-tesla-model-3-and-modelx



    TSLA did have a long period where the stock was basically flat. I think if Tesla were to stall or growth not be obvious that would be possible/likely but hard to imagine if they keep up this growth.
     
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  8. dl003

    dl003 Active Member

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  9. woodisgood

    woodisgood It's walnut, beech

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  10. Dancing Lemur

    Dancing Lemur Hoopy Frood

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    I was surprised that my post on “what are the major risks to Tesla achieving its goals by 2030” turned into a discussion on “how AMZN got destroyed by the dot com bubble”. But such is the interwebs.

    I agree that “this time is different”. It’s often pointed to as an investors’ fallacy, but it’s true every once in a while. I get chills every time I watch a booster land.

    But turning to the shorter term, things sure look rosy. Heavy buying pressure all day on strong volume. Tesla far outperformed the FAANGs, who collectively had one of their best days I can remember yesterday and struggled today.

    I expect more of the same tomorrow, and then I have no idea what will happen Monday. A blow off top and 15% drop wouldn’t shock me. But with S&P still looming, I don’t know. The screenshot below is an article (not an “ad”) from AppleInsider today; I know there’s lip service paid to the splits making shares more affordable for retail, but how much of an effect is this actually going to have? I think this accessibility to markets is changing how retail influences things, so looking at how historic splits have performed is not necessarily as relevant.

    I’ll definitely have some popcorn ready Monday morning.

    upload_2020-8-27_16-14-21.jpeg
     

    Attached Files:

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  11. vikings123

    vikings123 Active Member

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    Good point, looks like it will be another nice gap up tomorrow. The Upper BB also should be higher as we continue to be in a bullish trend. And then Mayhem on Monday.Remember no trading AH on Friday or pre market on Monday. This weekend is going to suck lol.

    I do think there will be some more shenanigans tomorrow so if anybody is looking to play options for next week you might get a very good opportunity. Just know the key support levels etc. Like @Artful Dodger pointed out earlier, they took it all the way to upper BB and then brought it all the way down to fill the gap. So predictable.
     
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  12. pdwitt

    pdwitt Member

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  13. pdwitt

    pdwitt Member

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    But the volume was high through the decline, then dried up on the recovery.
     
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  14. dc_h

    dc_h Active Member

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    It starts getting harder to breakout growth drivers, but this is great. If it were in Excel or Google docs, you could create bear case scenarios by site or vehicle. I’m not asking or criticizing, just noting the format. I do think there are two other growth engines, with the Semi beginning to scale up and energy likely up over 100% next year. Solar and batteries are both on track for 100% growth and GWh battery sites going up. If we do grow over 100% in 2021, the discounted value of TSLA will only need 30-35% growth to justify the current valuation. Barring COVID 2.0 or some other global disaster, I don’t see growth below 50% on average until 2027.

    Great post.
     
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  15. ZsoZso

    ZsoZso Supporting Member

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    Indeed. If you pay attention to what Chanos is saying (no, not the FUD BS "thesis", just the facts about his own TSLA short position and their policy about it) in the two separate interview segments and then connect the dots, you can come to the following conclusions:

    1. Chanos has already covered about 90% of their initial TSLA short position
    2. They have already lost so much money on TSLA shorting that they can never recover, even if Tesla were to bankrupt tomorrow
    Let's see how we arrive to these conclusions:
    • As far as I know from earlier appearances on CNBC etc, Chanos had a "max short" position already around $200 SP.
    • In the first segment in the above video from April, Chanos stated they are still "max short" at $470s and explains that is 5% of their fund as that is the max allowed in a single position by their rules
    • In the later (this week) segment he explains, they are still short but only within the rules of their fund, explains when the price hikes up they must trim their position to stay within the 5%.
    • So, if they shorted ~$200 and now the price is over $2000 and they keep trimming to stay within 5%, that means they already had to cover over 90% of their short!
    • That covering just from the 400s to now required them to pay more than twice the price for 80% of the position between 400-2000, therefore they had to lose more than 1.6x the money they got from the short sale. So even if Tesla goes bankrupt and they can cover their remaining 10% shorts at zero cost, they are still forever deep in the red!
    TLDR: Chanos has already lost more money than he could ever make back on shorting TSLA and he already covered most (~90%) of his shorts, so his position is rather insignificant now.
     
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  16. heltok

    heltok Active Member

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    Who is the least terrible Tesla bear right now? Want to hear a decent bear thesis. No “electronic vehicles” or “couldn’t find any production goals for Tesla”.
     
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  17. Tim S

    Tim S Supporting Member

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    Update: I stopped by yesterday at the Electrify America chargers at the local Walmart. Unfortunately the guy working there had just finished hiding the Tesla logo on the batteries installed there. You can still see the Tesla red. He said they aren't "Powerpacks" but they are Tesla BESS (Battery Energy Storage Systems).

    He said they hide the Tesla logo because Electrify America (VW) doesn't want to publicize the fact they are using Tesla batteries. He said they are doing this "all over the place". The goal is 400 locations by year's end. I think he meant across the US.

    He's from the NYC area, 150 miles from here. He was driving a Black Model S with chrome delete. I didn't get a pic.

    20200826_110234.jpg 20200826_110240.jpg
     
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  18. dl003

    dl003 Active Member

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    I might get some disagrees but AJ isn't too bad. He's proven to be just a bit slimy as opposed to clueless.
     
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  19. AlMc

    AlMc 'When the music is on...you gotta dance' (Go Elon)

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    Answered a similar question the same way a while ago (days): Could be worse: You could have put in a deposit for a roadster instead of letting the $$ ride in TSLA..............Today, that money could get you a roadster, a CZ 3 drive, a tricked out '3' or 'Y' and still have money to donate to your favorite charity and live on in retirement for a couple years.....:rolleyes:
     
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  20. dl003

    dl003 Active Member

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    Instead of putting $200k on TSLA in 2013, I bought a nail salon and I don't even do nails. :eek:
     
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