smorgasbord
Active Member
Oh sorry, I didn't realize I need the sarcasm identifier.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Oh sorry, I didn't realize I need the sarcasm identifier.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Time for a confession. I used to be able to say that I have held all my Tesla shares, but this has been a tough year. Earlier in the year I tried writing covered calls with a strike of $1200 for Mar and Jun of 2021. My outlook at that time was that the stock price could break $1000, but had a very low chance of exceeding $1200 in 2021. I thought this was a clever way to raise a little cash to balance out other holdings in my portfolio, but the universe set out to confound me. My covered call blew up on me. IV was massive. Around $1600, I realized that I had to sell shares to stop the losses on my calls. While Tesla investors were enjoying the biggest rally ever, I was kicking myself in the ass. Fortunately, I was able to enjoy most of the appreciation in my Tesla shares, but this had proven to be one of the most expensive ways to get a little cash for diversification. I realized painfully that, had I simply sold a few shares to raise cash, I would have forfeited far fewer shares and enjoyed much more gain on my hoard of shares. It left the rest of my portfolio in disarray too.
Having learned this lesson, I set out to rebalance my portfolio by selling off a few shares at a time as price climbed higher. Tesla was more than 80% of my actively managed portfolio. I have managed to get this down to about 73%, but it is hard because the Tesla position is growing so fast. I've been trying to keep the position to a certain multiple of $1 million. I set up limit orders so that as the price goes up I sell off 5 to 20 shares to keep the position back to that target value. But even that is not working so well. This is generating so much capital gains that we've bumped up to the 20% long-term rate. So my wife wants my to hold back and spread the gains out to future years at the 15% tax rate. So I'm able to keep trimming my IRA Tesla position, but I'm allowing my taxable Tesla position to keep running.
So I'm not really complaining. This is all too much of a very good thing. This has been a transformative experience for our finances, and I'm quite confident about retiring in the next ten years when I find myself good and ready. Yes, I remain a buy-and-hold investor. That is my basic style. I like to accumulate a little at a time in anticipation of long-term appreciation. But I am also selling Tesla a little at a time. This is not because I am trying to trade for a profit or because I think the price will soon fall. It is simply because my Tesla position has become so large, and I want to accumulate other stocks too. The most conservative stock I'm rotating into is HASI. It is a REIT that invests in renewable energy farms and other sustainability infrastructure. It has a 3.5% dividend yield, and the stock price has appreciated about 25% annually over the last 5 years. This is a long-term dividend growth play. My other investments like SEDG and ARKK have the potential, I believe, to grow sustainably above 30% per year. In fact, SEDG has usually beat TSLA in any year, just not this year.
I'm grateful that my Tesla investment has paid off so well and can now fund new investments. Someday, it will fund my retirement too. Other investors seem eager to buy my shares, and I'm happy new Tesla investors are coming along. My hope is that they will be rewarded as richly as I have been and will continue to be.
Having learned this lesson, I set out to rebalance my portfolio by selling off a few shares at a time as price climbed higher. Tesla was more than 80% of my actively managed portfolio. I have managed to get this down to about 73%, but it is hard because the Tesla position is growing so fast. I've been trying to keep the position to a certain multiple of $1 million. I set up limit orders so that as the price goes up I sell off 5 to 20 shares to keep the position back to that target value. But even that is not working so well. This is generating so much capital gains that we've bumped up to the 20% long-term rate. So my wife wants my to hold back and spread the gains out to future years at the 15% tax rate. So I'm able to keep trimming my IRA Tesla position, but I'm allowing my taxable Tesla position to keep running.
So I'm not really complaining. This is all too much of a very good thing. This has been a transformative experience for our finances, and I'm quite confident about retiring in the next ten years when I find myself good and ready. Yes, I remain a buy-and-hold investor. That is my basic style. I like to accumulate a little at a time in anticipation of long-term appreciation. But I am also selling Tesla a little at a time. This is not because I am trying to trade for a profit or because I think the price will soon fall. It is simply because my Tesla position has become so large, and I want to accumulate other stocks too. The most conservative stock I'm rotating into is HASI. It is a REIT that invests in renewable energy farms and other sustainability infrastructure. It has a 3.5% dividend yield, and the stock price has appreciated about 25% annually over the last 5 years. This is a long-term dividend growth play. My other investments like SEDG and ARKK have the potential, I believe, to grow sustainably above 30% per year. In fact, SEDG has usually beat TSLA in any year, just not this year.
I'm grateful that my Tesla investment has paid off so well and can now fund new investments. Someday, it will fund my retirement too. Other investors seem eager to buy my shares, and I'm happy new Tesla investors are coming along. My hope is that they will be rewarded as richly as I have been and will continue to be.
ByeByeJohnny
Active Member
I actually ended up donating my pay to another worker. Very specific situation he was in and I just told him he could have my pay for the night. I have never in my entire life even considered doing something like that before.
Guess money does change you.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Yup.
Other thing I expect will be a major stock hit though not as bad will be the first time FSD officially operating at L3 or higher (ie car officially responsible not driver) kills someone. Even if it does so 10x less often than a human driver people are weird about machines killing people.
mejojo
Active Member
Yeah, it makes me laugh when a billionaire donates 5 million to some cause. SO easy to be generous when you risk nothing by it.
mekberg
Member
I live in Madison. You see a white Model 3 every couple of minutes downtown. They must have 100+.
Whenever my partner and I see a white Model 3 from the front we play a guessing game: "Green Cab or Owner?"
We own a white Model 3.
Edit: This business pretty genius. Green Cab is buying Model 3s (some Dual Motor) and leasing them to drivers. I suspect they've all got FSD upgrades.
Drive – Green Cab Madison
Edit2: Imagine how many drivers/passengers are now exposed/hooked on Tesla?
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Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
First person killed by an autonomous car will definitely take a easy 30% of the share price.......this is of course after the stock has quadrupled from here due to FSD/Autonomy being real.
Show us the "multi-year decline" in NVDA. I see it dropping in October 2018, and back up in December 2019. That's rather different from the 10-year decline in AMZN, which you claim was "under rather similar market perception conditions" to TSLA (before claiming with high dudgeon that I put words in your mouth).
Actually, I said the opposite, as anyone can see in this thread.
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I am a huge TSLA fan, via both stock and car ownership, but there is another black swan
involving software sabotage by a criminal insider. It would be caught quickly, reversed a
little more slowly, but perhaps too horrible to contemplate other than in a nightmare. Here's
hoping that their software code review, check-in and QC teams are all-eyes vigilant.
I guess I am trying to understand an actionable strategy based on your assessment. What is it you are specifically recommending?
Seriously. I do have some bubble concerns.
edit:typos
Dancing Lemur
Hoopy Frood
You mean like this?
The Big Tesla Hack: A hacker gained control over the entire fleet, but fortunately he's a good guy - Electrek
Or the million dollar Russian FBI thing?
Tesla and FBI prevented $1 million ransomware hack at Gigafactory Nevada - Electrek
But the first person has already been killed by an autonomous car... but it wasn't a Tesla.
Self-driving Uber kills Arizona woman in first fatal crash involving pedestrian
It did seem to have pushed Uber out of the autonomy business though.
mekberg
Member
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Uber wasn't a publicly traded company when that happened of course.
Also they're still working on autonomy-
Advanced Technologies Group | Uber ATG
10 years? Are you trying to fill a swimming pool with cash?
@mekberg beat me to it. You have some expensive hobbies or noble goals perhaps during your retirement...?
Sudre
Active Member
I just wanted to add a bit of color to this. I will use those Call strikes at $2100 as an example. There were over 25000 Calls with a strike of $2100 opened. This was noted by chrsk Monday. I haven't been paying too much attention so I don't know exactly when they appeared. If you checked out the volume of that same Call it turns out over 21000 of them spun in circles all day Monday. I know the contracts were mostly not officially closed, just resold, because 23000 of them still exist. I am wondering if someone originally sold them as some kind of hedge. The person/s who bought them sold them to someone else and they have been getting sold in high volume all week. I believe if the person who originally sold them were to buy them back they would vanish from the OI chart the next day. Today we spun them around 30000 times. I bet they are still in the same OI range tomorrow. There are now 4000 Puts sold under them today, up from Mondays 2000. Some MM may have sold the Calls and hedged them. Now they also have Puts sold at the same strike on the same shares. Over 21000 Puts with a strike of $2100 spun around today. I wonder how many are new OI.
More interesting stuff to me. There were 642 Puts with a strike of $2200 this morning on the OI chart.
28000 of those Puts spun in circles today!?! There is no way that was just spin. Some new opens had to happen. Did the person who opened them turn around and buy them back closing them today?
This would suggest to me we close above $2200 tomorrow. Tomorrow when we see the new open interest chart if there are only a few thousand Puts with a strike of $2200 then we know there will be a push down. If a bunch of those Puts stuck and the open interest in 2200 strike Puts is way up then THEY are expecting to close higher.
This is just fun trying to read tea leaves. You should not trade off this stuff unless you like gambling.
Bet TSLA
Active Member
I notice that it's predictable only after the fact. I never see actual predictions here. Just lots of "I knew it would do that" followed by some TA mumbo jumbo. That's about the only thing that's predictable.
If you actually had any ability to predict short-term stock movements, you would be immensely wealthy.
Off Shore
Off Topic Member
Possibly true, but the 7th or 8th won't make a blip on the chart, as everyone realizes that Tesla's insurance pays out just as well as everyone elses's does.
Now have five Teslas kill people at the same time or in quick succession in different parts of the world in the same way, and you can move the SP.
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