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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by AudubonB, Dec 28, 2018.

  1. ninpb

    ninpb Member

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    So from a quick Google, a power pack costs 172k. Multiplied by 400 is 68m. Tastes sweeter when it's coming from VW.
     
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  2. Mo City

    Mo City Active Member

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    I made the exact same point about Q3 but that was when TSLA was sitting between $1500-$1600. At over $2200, we'll see.
     
  3. dakh

    dakh Supporting Member

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    Just curious, the green spike on the far right is what, calls bought by shorts to limit losses in case of a spike-squeeze? And then what's the red spike on the far left all about? Kinda crazy to hold puts at 180 strike.
     
  4. mejojo

    mejojo Supporting Member

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    [​IMG]
     
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  5. Nocturnal

    Nocturnal Supporting Member

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    You just really like having yours done?
     
  6. Curt Renz

    Curt Renz Well-Known Member

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    Torque News - half hour ago:

     
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  7. BlackS

    BlackS Supporting Member

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  8. dl003

    dl003 Active Member

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    I think it's a scientific fact that some human brains are not fully developed until 25 year of age. I'm a prime example of that. :(
     
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  9. MikeAtkinson

    MikeAtkinson Supporting Member

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    I considered doing something more sophisticated, but in the end that just fools you into thinking there is more precision than is the case. However, I might try and put together a google sheet.

    There is a judgement call in how fast gigafactories can start operation, how steep the ramp is and what are the factory limits to production. In the case of Berlin and Austin there is a judgement call about when subsequent phases are going to be started. There are also questions about how fast the supply chain can ramp, how fast battery production ramps and the proportion of batteries used for vehicles.

    Semi and Cybertruck are also two unknowns, I suspect Elon is sandbagging his estimates, so it is not clear what production is next year.

    I also think that energy (solar and batteries) is likely to grow 100% or more, solar growth is probably limited by how fast they can recruit installers, battery growth by availability of cells.

    My cases were based on yearly figures, it should be possible to estimate quarterly production and from that quarterly sales. Year on year increases for Q1 and Q2 next year are likely to be very high due to the effects of COVID-19 this year, I would not be surprised to see increases over 200% in each of those quarters.
     
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  10. ggr

    ggr Expert in Dunning-Kruger Effect!

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    It depends on what you mean by "rather insignificant" I guess. Admittedly the dollar value of it will be smaller, as it is still a fixed percentage of a fund that had decreased in value (I think? Or did it just underperform the rest of the market?) But the psychological significance has to be weighing on him.
     
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  11. Sofie

    Sofie Member

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    It can ALWAYS be worse, people! :rolleyes:
     
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  12. Thekiwi

    Thekiwi Active Member

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    I think people like Asworth Damodaran are worth paying attention too. By no means have to agree with his assumptions, but he simply uses DCF valuations to decide whether to buy or sell and releases his spreadsheet publicly for everyone to see his assumptions and makes changes if they wish (has been in and out of Tesla over last couple of years). I disagree with his margin and growth assumptions, but its always good to hear what a value investor like him thinks (and worthy to note as a "value" investor he was investing in Tesla last year - unlike most of the bears.)
     
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  13. OrthoSurg

    OrthoSurg Member

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    I guess you can call that volunteering at some point!
     
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  14. Tim S

    Tim S Supporting Member

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    I learned earlier this year you can buy cheap puts (that will expire worthless) to increase your margin and prevent margin calls. That might explain some of the red spikes. I spent literally $5 on a put contract to increase my margin by about $15,000.

    Maybe the inverse is true for shortsellers and the green spikes.
     
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  15. BlackS

    BlackS Supporting Member

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    Just a little humor before tomorrow...enjoy y'all....oldie but goodie:

    upload_2020-8-27_14-44-25.png
     
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  16. UncaNed

    UncaNed Supporting Member

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    #196376 UncaNed, Aug 27, 2020
    Last edited: Aug 27, 2020
    How do we know how much Chanos really lost shorting?? Are we trusting what he SAID he did or is it on public record somewhere?
     
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  17. UnknownSoldier

    UnknownSoldier Unknown Member

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    I'm someone who rode NVDA down from around 280 down to around 120 during the bitcoin crash back in 2018, because Nvidia and AMD video cards were heavily used to mine that trash and there was a short-term sales collapse when people stopped buying video cards to mine with. Since then NVDA has recovered and is now around it's current ATH of 510.

    I'm prepared for TSLA to crater all the way back down to 400 if need be. I have my hedges in place, you can't kill me with a 50% decline in share value over what ended up being nothing, because I've already been there. And that was before TSLA's Corvid flash crash back in March, all the people who panic sold that crash are kicking themselves now. You'll pry these shares from my cold, dead hands!
     
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  18. Christine600

    Christine600 Supporting Member

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    So Volkswagen cheats with the emissions of their VW, Audi etc. cars. A big scandal - and rightly so.
    As punishment/retribution VW America has to make charging stations for Zero Emission Vehicles.
    In order to do that properly they buy 400+ BESS products from Tesla.

    And this is in addition to the regulatory credits FCA already buys from Tesla?

    I knew that Fiat Chrysler have been paying for Tesla to grow their market share. But now the Volkswagen Group is also financing Tesla's expansion?

    Fiat, Chrysler, Volkswagen, Audi and Porsche are paying for the new factories their fastest growing competitor is building?


    How abso-bloody-lutely brilliant!

    :D
     
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  19. Prunesquallor

    Prunesquallor His cardinal virtue? An undamaged brain.

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    #196379 Prunesquallor, Aug 27, 2020
    Last edited: Aug 27, 2020
    Even better, money coming from a VW diesel emission-cheating penalty.

    FD055E93-CA8F-4F3C-8CB2-E7BC1FDFDA82.jpeg

    Edit: as pointed out by @Christine600 :D
     
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  20. Oveeus

    Oveeus Member

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    What a run really... I didn't think it would be this soon but was checking my brokerage account today, I just realized that I'm officially a Teslanaire by my own metric (market value-book>=1M) on my TSLA holdings alone. Wow...
     
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