Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Stretch2727]

It was fun while it lasted. Last night my Fidelity Roth (which holds all of my TSLA shares and only that) was up five times in value with the share numbers increased five times, but the SP staying the same. Just now I saw it go back down with the share numbers and SP adjusted for the split.

I guess a true paper gain.

Maybe in a few years (or maybe sooner) we will be above 2K again.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

They only swing trade what, less than 10 percent of their shares? Also we had a huge break out to 969. The rest were all based on luck like pandemic and split. Cathie has been pretty spot on with Tesla but I can't fault them for not catching luck. They bought a boatload when low and sold some when high like an active management team should do. So they could have bought some lower and sold some higher? Sure if they had a crystal ball also.

If you’re the type who thinks the rise during this pandemic is due to “luck” and not because it shed even more light on the obvious advantages and lead that Tesla has over legacy auto, then there’s no point discussing this further with you. Cheers.

 

[UkNorthampton]

I don’t understand how a compact hatchback serves the mission in the next 5 years.

At an incredible 50% growth we hit 3.75M vehicles / year in 5 years.

S3XY CRS demand should be plenty to drive demand to this level. The only thing introducing a compact hatchback would do, is decrease production of one or more of those. This has two consequences

1) Each vehicle in Tesla’s lineup displaces a gas vehicle that burns more carbon than the gas hatchbacks displaced by EV hatchbacks.

2) EV hatchback sales will generate less cash, thereby slowing down factory buildout, which is the most critical aspect of all in furthering the mission.

Golf sized EV is ideal for Europe, Golf and smaller are mainstream, normal. Many people won't buy a Model 3 or bigger car. It's too big to be desirable as it's not practical.

That's blocking out most of a large market (roughly 15 million comapred to 17 million in the USA but cars/vehicle definitions vary).

Model 3 and larger can only address a niche even if really cheap.

"current UK norm for parking spaces is 2.4 metres wide by 4.8 metres" - various sources

Note that that is a 'norm', not a minimum, there are plenty of smaller spaces. These are designed spaces, not the kind you get in crowded streets where one car parks between two others. Sometimes there isn't room to step between vehicles when you cross the street. In these circumstances, having a long car means you really struggle to park on your own street, while short cars find it much easier.

USA: 17.24.050 Parking facility layout and dimensions.
"The minimum size of a standard parking space shall be nine feet wide and eighteen feet long"

2.7432m USA vs 2.4m UK
5.4864m USA vs 4.8m UK

Model 3 is 4,694 mm L x 1,849 mm W x 1,443 mm H

Width gap: 2.4m - 1.85m is 21.65 inches
Length gap: 0.1m is 39 inches

Other countries can have far less space in cities.

"Each vehicle in Tesla’s lineup displaces a gas vehicle that burns more carbon than the gas hatchbacks displaced by EV hatchbacks." - Polo/Golf/smaller hatchbacks do long distances. They are usually people's only car, often just one per family. They are chosen in preference due to their size, economy and other attributes. They are used on family holidays to UK, Ireland and mainland Europe and on long commutes.

What is normal in North America is not normal elsewhere. When locals are saying smaller Teslas are required in their markets, I urge you to keep an open mind.

about 2:30 (single lane) 7:10 (cyclist)

town parking, shows typical terraced housing

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

same here, screenshots of all positions. IBKR is not even letting me log in today.

Only 41 hours of waiting left before Frankfurt will give us the first indication.

My name is .... and I’m a TSLAholic.

I’m glad I’m not the only one not able to log in at IB. But it is a bit worrisome that a change in one stock is causing the whole login to be shut down.

 

[NicoV]

No changes in my account yet... Bwah, I want my fwee shares!!!

I did, at least, take screen-shots at close yesterday, in anticipation of a cock-up...

I have a couple of calls that changed to something that’s probably the post-split price, causing a big drop in my portfolio value.
BTW: Keytrade has a link (in your ‘history’ iirc) to download the previous day portfolio composition and value as a PDF, I guess that’s more usable than a screenshot.

 

[Rohan]

I'm just going to pretend I'm completely relaxed about the absence of any money in my account. Friday up over 600%, Saturday £0.00, gulp

 

[Singuy]

If you’re the type who thinks the rise during this pandemic is due to “luck” and not because it shed even more light on the obvious advantages and lead that Tesla has over legacy auto, then there’s no point discussing this further with you. Cheers.

Dude, the pandemic was luck. I didn't say delieveries were luck. No one predicted a global pandemic which allowed Tesla to shine in 2020. That was the lucky part.

 

[Words of HABIT]

For those who think TSLA share price is in a bubble, most are recent entries and either are not aware or forget the growing pains Tesla experienced during peak FUD between September 2013 and May 2019, that is just shy of six years of a flat share price at $190 (pre-split) and counting inflation a decrease in net worth over that time frame. This for a company that was selling >2,000 EVs/month of one model, the Model S, in September 2013. No Gigafactories in Nevada, New York, Shanghai 1 & 2, Berlin and Texas, No Model 3, No Model Y, No Roadster, No Semi, No Cybertruck. This recent run is verification of the Tesla mission and served as a springboard for share price. There is no mass produced competition expected until 2025, by then Tesla will be selling >350,000 EVs/month and welcomes every other EV that comes on the market. And don't get me started on battery storage, solar roofs...

I have never felt more comfortable in my Tesla investment than today and IHMO there is no better investment. Will TSLA go up in straight line? Definitely not. Will it continue to go up over multi-year time frame? Definitely Yes. At these price levels many are in TSLA for a quick trade, and many will exit at a loss. For those invested for the long term, there is no safer place to invest for our future than Tesla.

 

[astrotoy]

town parking, shows typical terraced housing

She is particularly impressive, since she is parking on the opposite side of the street from the driver's side, so she cannot directly see the other car when she starts her 45 degree turn into the space. Hurrah for her.

When we visit Hong Kong, which has many very narrow streets and extremely limited parking, I am amazed at the number of MB's and other very large cars on the road, including many Tesla MS's. Parking spaces are typically very limited and they go for astronomical prices (more than the price of a car). These spaces almost always require you to fold in your outside mirrors, so your car can fit. My sister-in-law asked me whether I wanted to park her Lexus in their parking space. I looked at the car and the parking space and politely declined.

Our MS is way too old to have any of the self driving features. One that would be very helpful would be the parking and summoning feature which would allow you to exit the car before having to navigate a narrow parking space, especially one with a wall on the driver's side of the car.

 

[wipster]

Schwab has done so as of this morning with both the shares and the price..
and the balance is correct ;-)

eTrade has not as yet (at least not with my account). I must admit, it would be cool to take a picture of my account with the Friday's closing price and Monday's opening qty. of shares... I might frame it!

 

[ZsoZso]

Uh, oh, Bloomberg is scrapping the bottom of the barrel for some Tesla-FUD, They are re-hashing the old Martin Tripp story with some fresh spin to paint Elon as the bad guy out to destroy the poor whistle-blower:
When Elon Musk Tried to Destroy a Tesla Whistleblower

The story also brings up the pedo-guy tweets and the SEC investigation and law suit (420 funding secured) as well as "puffing a joint" during live podcast.

I wonder what will they bring up once Neuralink is operational. Will they claim Russian hackers are controlling US elections via neuralink hacks to influence how people vote ? Honestly, its more likely that hackers would hijack brains to farm bitcoins...

 

[Big Time]

So....cathies 7000 base case / 5 would be :1400
Her bull case? Is it 14K? / 5 would be: 2800


New aspirations.
Where we headed?
Everyone should post PT for next 5 years!

2021: 900
2022: 1200
2023: 2500
2024: Split again? back to 500?
2025: 1K equivalent to pre 2020 split????:
$10-15K?

 

[Big Earl]

Uh, oh, Bloomberg is scrapping the bottom of the barrel for some Tesla-FUD, They are re-hashing the old Martin Tripp story with some fresh spin to paint Elon as the bad guy out to destroy the poor whistle-blower:
When Elon Musk Tried to Destroy a Tesla Whistleblower

The story also brings up the pedo-guy tweets and the SEC investigation and law suit (420 funding secured) as well as "puffing a joint" during live podcast.

I wonder what will they bring up once Neuralink is operational. Will they claim Russian hackers are controlling US elections via neuralink hacks to influence how people vote ? Honestly, its more likely that hackers would hijack brains to farm bitcoins...

Speaking of Bloomberg FUD, Hana Dull seems to think that pigs are primates and Neuralink is Tesla.

Twitter link

 

[Boomer19]

Hah ha - yes .. now on and off reachable, the NetLiq value is correct, but the Unrlz numbers are way off (way too high LOL) - Schwab numbers also are off, I didn't notice. Good thing they did this over the weekend!

you’re right! i think brokers are lucky that it was the weekend this happened for both aapl and tsla

the amount of customers holding these 2 are tremendous and handling, posting, reconciling stock and derivatives for both events for everyone at the same time is an operational challenge

 

[Singuy]

Speaking of Bloomberg FUD, Hana Dull seems to think that pigs are primates and Neuralink is Tesla.

Twitter link

Lol looking at the replies she is getting hammered. News flash cnbs, Tesla is now a hot stock. Be careful or else you alienate your readers, who are now mostly Tesla share holders.

 

[Boomer19]

I have RBC accounts and they are showing deposit of the dividend shares. I'm going to guess that your shares have been lent out. RBC needs the stock to start trading so they can borrow or outright purchase the shares in the open market on Monday and deliver by September 2. The reason it is the 2nd, is settlement is T+2. In other words, you have an IOU out against RBC. I'd be complaining about that, if I were you. IMO, RBC has aided and abetted manipulative short sellers who need the stock to start trading in order to deliver the dividend to you. BS. You want them on the pay date. IMO, this is evidence of what some us have been talking about: I.e., the inability of the shorts to find enough shares to deliver on the due date, because of the enormous amount of phantom shares.

@MTL_HABS1909
if RBC has credited Hock, and not you, that’s weird, and potential mistake or problem. whether your shares are lent or not should not matter. you should see the split share proceeds (corporate action position adjustment) in your account balance ...whether it’s a placeholder until the brokerage receives the allocation from the depository, or the actual shares, your account needs to remain equity neutral with the market...
in other words, when monday opens
you need either
1) the additional 4 shares per old share
2) 4 fake/contra shares, valued at the mkt price of tsla, in lieu of the final shares

3) fake equity (accrual) of the expected value of the 4 extra shares

so that when the mkt price opens at 440 or whatever, you don’t see your net liq value drop off a cliff and acct subject to liquidation or margin (for those using margin or deficient due to other account positions)

i can’t comment as to RBC’s operational procedure, but generally it should be something of the above

for example, IB does #1 for us and canadian customers, even though they won’t receive, as a firm, the allocated split shares for all its customers until DTCC credits them (could be later monday, maybe tuesday, etc). point is, the customers are correct and in balance with the market in the meantime

 

[Johann Koeber]

I’m glad I’m not the only one not able to log in at IB. But it is a bit worrisome that a change in one stock is causing the whole login to be shut down.

Scheduled Maintenance

Aktueller Systemstatus | Interactive Brokers Luxembourg SARL

 

[capster]

Is anyone's balance on their accounts all screwed up with the split? I wish it was true I have multiple millions. Our accounts are with Vanguard.

Yes, I saw it on Vanguard a little while ago too. lol

I took a screenshot to keep as a memento from the future.

When all the current Gigafactories and a few more are running at full tilt, when Tesla Energy gets to be as big as the automotive side of the business, when battery production continues exponential growth and when robotaxis hit the roads, we’ll easily have reached the point in the future from whence the memento came — say 2024 or so.

I am not inclined to sell, but if I get tempted I’ll take out that screenshot to remind myself where we’ll be soon.

 

[Curt Renz]

MarketWatch - 2 hours ago: Tesla and Apple have had a great run — here’s why they’re poised to ‘rocket’ even higher in the next year

 

[astrotoy]

For those who think TSLA share price is in a bubble, most are recent entries and either are not aware or forget the growing pains Tesla experienced during peak FUD between September 2013 and May 2019, that is just shy of six years of a flat share price at $190 (pre-split) and counting inflation a decrease in net worth over that time frame. This for a company that was selling >2,000 EVs/month of one model, the Model S, in September 2013. No Gigafactories in Nevada, New York, Shanghai 1 & 2, Berlin and Texas, No Model 3, No Model Y, No Roadster, No Semi, No Cybertruck. This recent run is verification of the Tesla mission and served as a springboard for share price. There is no mass produced competition expected until 2025, by then Tesla will be selling >350,000 EVs/month and welcomes every other EV that comes on the market. And don't get me started on battery storage, solar roofs...

I have never felt more comfortable in my Tesla investment than today and IHMO there is no better investment. Will TSLA go up in straight line? Definitely not. Will it continue to go up over multi-year time frame? Definitely Yes. At these price levels many are in TSLA for a quick trade, and many will exit at a loss. For those invested for the long term, there is no safer place to invest for our future than Tesla.

View attachment 582016

Thanks for posting this, including the chart. In many ways the price action of mid 2013 is very similar to that of 2020. We took delivery of our MS is February of 2013 (number 43XX) and I had been looking at TSLA for some time. It had been stuck in a trading range of 30 to 40 for quite a long time, with many people recommending short positions and questioning the survival of Tesla. I hesitated buying, and then the massive run started around May going from around 35 to about 190 in a few months, a five fold increase (like we had this year). I sat and sat, waiting for a drop. It finally occurred in November based on some FUD that I knew was not true since I owned a MS - don't remember the details, but the price dropped by about a third or more in a just few days.

Here was my big opportunity and I jumped in with half of my Roth IRA, at 130. It was the single largest investment I had ever made on a single stock. My goal was to have it increase by about 50%, the cost of our MS, so, in my thinking, our MS would be free! It hit that target fairly quickly as it crossed the $200 level. Since it was in a Roth, I just let it stay invested and by early 2016 after another drop (this time to 190) I decided to sell the other half of my Roth holdings and buy TSLA, so I was (and am still) 100% TSLA in my Roth. From late 2013 to a year ago, my Roth had grown (with TSLA) at just about the rate of the SP500 (around 8-9% compounded) but with much greater volatility. A bit scary, but it was money we didn't need and it was growing tax free. I had been very happy when TSLA first broke the $300 barrier and then not so happy when it went back down to around $200. However, it always stayed above my combined cost of $153.

A year ago, my total ROTH TSLA investment had a gain of about 25% or about one and a third Teslas (Model S). Today, the gain is over 1300% or fifty Teslas (Model S)! My advice (after 6 3/4 years of owning TSLA), if you maintain your basic conviction about the long term future of Tesla, then HODL!