Food for Thought ... from @JPR007 ... makes a case justifying a SP of $3442 in 2020 (thread).
https://twitter.com/jpr007/status/1299926974056423427
https://twitter.com/jpr007/status/1299926974056423427
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
I support this valuation (by not selling any share). But the problem is that it's not me or you deciding this. The market will need about 200m owners of tsla and 1400b of capital supporting this valuation.
Ha! I had a Sierra Sapphire Cosworth in the early 90's - they were dirt-cheap in the UK due to outrageous insurance costs. I bought from a colleague who had owned from new, a Sunday morning only car, with 15k miles on the clock, mint condition for £350. I doubled the mileage, then sold it a year later for £4500, the maintenance was beginning to pile-up, it needed a new head-gasket and that was quite an expensive job, which I couldn't really afford at the time.
Spend the money instead on a Ducati 900SL, damn that was a beautiful bike and sounded like thunder with the illegal carbon-fibre pipes.
Yeah, done all that... Nothing changed for me.
Note that the "previous day portfolio" isn't always correct - for me it shows -3 c4000, whereas it should be -5
A bit worrying that "some" calls adapted, not all, TBH I would have expected this to be an overnight batch conversion, can't be that hard, surely...?
And this still assumes that growth in 2021 and 2022 will be 50%. It seems to me that growth in both years will be 100% (so greater than 1 million production in 2021 and 2 million in 2022). This we can predict reasonably accurately from the progress in Shanghai, Berlin and Austin and that Tesla will be production constrained with Model 3, Model Y and Cybertruck, especially with expected cost reductions due to economies of scale, learning curve and localised production.
If we assume higher growth for the next two years then reverting to 50% growth, then we get his predictions pulled forward by about 1.5 years, to mid 2026.
What this means for the share price is that the discounted price would be above $2000 at 10x P/E multiple, at higher multiples (a case can be made for 50x P/E multiple) this could lead to share prices all the way up to $10,000.
This seems incredible, perhaps I have made a mistake (?!?!).
My trading account (Germany) does the same
... Amazing how badly such an event is handled by the banking software. Almost tempted to sell some... But I guess the trade only goes through tomorrow at the lower price anyway.
So far my chairs haven’t been replaced by 5 times as many stools yet. (The monetary amount is now ten times as many dimes though.)
if the S&P requested a secondary offering and wanted a dollar amount for the secondary offering, the stock split was a brilliant move. Less dilution that way and the index funds will have to buy even more Chairs/stools because of the increased market cap
if I were the S&P, I’d include Tesla in four equal tranches.
if the S&P requested a secondary offering and wanted a dollar amount for the secondary offering, the stock split was a brilliant move. Less dilution that way and the index funds will have to buy even more Chairs/stools because of the increased market cap
if I were the S&P, I’d include Tesla in four equal tranches.
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The six complaints (seriously!!):
1) it's dirty, it was clean when it was new
2) the door-handles aren't auto-presenting (he needs to press them) - surely a fault for SC to resolve?
3) the car switches off to quickly when you get out, it should stay-alive for a while - I agree, I'd also like a grace-period for entering the PIN code
4) the beep when you close the trunk is too loud -I agree with this, it's awful on the Mdodel S, Model X is much nicer
5) the graphics of the "MODEL S" and "P100D" badging is ugly - he has a point
6) a "clonking" sound from the rear suspension - might want to get that checked, with my P85 I had weird noises from the rear (my rear sometimes on wet roads!!) and it was the drive-unit failing
I used to be invested in ARKK. Then I found out they are high on cr...er.. crypto. Sold immediately. As Elon said on the ARK podcast, the amount of electricity used up for mining bitcoins is a big problem.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Hah! That's nothing! How's this for an attempted fraud? (personal details redacted)My trading account (Germany) does the same
Imma say, it's easy to see who the bad actors are now. "Phone us if you need to sell". This brokerage is obviously hoping to buy shares beginning Monday morning to replace the ones they should be receiving from the Transfer Agent. Would have too, if their 'sold' share count matched the records at the Transfer Agent...
And what's this new B.S. about "Temporary Shares" that you can't sell online? This Broker is quite obviously trying to ration out the few real shares they actually hold (obviously way less than 20% of their obligations to "beneficial holders"). Is this funny money? Why don't they just pay in Reichsmarks? I hear they're plentiful now.
Cheers!
I mean, this implies that Tesla will literally be selling 50 million cars a year by 2040. That would make Tesla not only the largest company on Earth, but larger than all other companies on Earth combined. This is quite the fantasy he is projecting, I think it would be safe to say that Tesla would need to be operating over 100,000 service centers around the world at that point. The sheer scale of this theory is not really imaginable, I guess this is why traditional automakers farm out service and support to dealerships.
MartinAustin
Active Member
James May video getting way more attention than it deserves
It's a hard life. Max Pain is now $200 with a stock price of $2,217.25 over at
Stock Option Max Pain
Stock Option Max Pain
It's a pro-Tesla video, regardless of the title
I don't like clickbaits regardless of topic. Maybe it's just me.
The other issue is that they would have to be able to detect a power outage and cut off the utility power so there would be no possibility of sending power to the offline grid.
When your systems are still using tape drives, it takes a while.
Dreadnought
Member
Any projection this far out is pure speculation. Actually, any projection beyond the FSD singularity is entirely useless; only it's anybody's guess when that will happen. At times it feels like half of the posts are about timeline for FSD and I hope that I don't kick off another avalanche on this topic. However, it happens to be the biggest wildcard in the valuation of TSLA and I feel compelled to at least frame it.
Looking back at the H/W 20 years ago, the typical PC had 128 MB RAM and would have a hard time competing against a modern smartphone. It needs the pessimism of a TSLAQer to assume that another 20 years of advancements won't get us there. AP1 was released 6 years ago. Comparing that against today's system capabilities, did we make it more than half way to FSD? I don't have firsthand experience with AP1 but to me, it certainly feels so. What are the chances that cars will make the daily commute without intervention four times a week before 2022? That's literally the Million dollar question to me. Because it doesn't really matter if it takes another year or five to hunt down the tail of 9s from there on. The market will start to give FSD a greater-then-zero valuation and all bets are off at that point.
Edit: typo
As long as clickers watch until the punchline there's no harm done really. Plenty worse out there.
Yes, click-bait and yes, it sucks. But this Tesla click-baiting is getting so long in the tooth that it is already backfiring and/or loosing any negative power it might had had a few months back.
We are stepping into a-boy-who-cried-wolf territory. This makes Tesla even less vulnerable to the real issues that might rise and get all the headlines with little consequences to the brand.
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