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Meanwhile in New Zealand.

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EV Sales: New Zealand December 2018

2017 PEV market share .6% 2018 1.4%

2019 Should pass 3% and definitely 2.5% with Model 3 landing in the second half of the year.
 
I was just thinking about Tesla’s overall probability of injury numbers relative to the industry and how this could factor into consumer’s purchasing decisions. Using some back of the envelope calculations, it turns out this could be extremely significant if widely communicated and may already play a key role in Tesla stretch.

Risk of injury in a Tesla model 3 accident
NHTSA’s Vehicle safety score represents relative risk of injury, taking into account front, side and rollover crashes. It sets a baseline at 15% (i presume this is the average of cars tested?). Model 3 achieved a scored of 0.38 relative to this baseline, or 5.7% which supposedly means you are 2.6x less likely to be injured in a car accident in a model 3 than an average car.

Risk of accident in a Tesla

Tesla cars recorded 1 accident for every 1.92 million miles driven in 4Q18. This compares to NHTSA’s data that there is a crash every 0.436 million miles in the US. So Tesla’s are 4.4x less likely to be involved in car accidents than the average car. This is presumably due to Autopilot safety features (which don’t require Autopilot to be purchased or activated) and faster acceleration and breaking which can help people avoid accidents.

Total risk of injury in a Tesla model 3
Multiplying these numbers means that overall you are 11.4x less likely to be injured driving a Tesla than the same number of miles in an average car in the US.

Value of reduced fatality risk
Deaths of car, pickup & SUV occupants in auto accidents were 23.4k in the US 2017. The total light vehicle US fleet is c.230 million.

Most US departments set the value of human life at c.$9 million (no debate here on the rational or politics of this). If we assume Tesla's reduced risk of fatality is the same as reduced risk of injury (1/11.4), then the value of owning a Tesla relative to an average car per year in reduced risk of fatality should be 23.4k/230m * $9 million * (1-1/11.4) = $835.

Value of reduced injury risk
For overall auto accidents there are c.68x more injuries relative to fatalities, assuming this maps to the light duty vehicle segment this means c.1.6 million injuries per year for 230m light duty cars. Lets say the average auto accident non fatal injury is c.$50k impact to people (I just made this up, but I'm sure I could get a more justified number with time spent looking at the insurance industry). So 1.6m/230m * $50k * (1-11.4) = $316 value per year of owning a Tesla over an average car in reduced risk of auto accident injury.

Total value of Tesla model 3's safety
Together this is $1,151 per year of Tesla ownership relative to the average car. Assuming people buy a Tesla with average 5 years of ownership in mind, Tesla’s increased safety should be worth c.$5.8k to a consumer when comparing the upfront price to the average US car.

I think the problem with your analysis is that you overlook the demographic differences between Tesla drivers and average drivers. Tesla drivers are less likely to be drunk, aggressive or reckless because they are (a) richer and (b) older than the average driver (there's a reason why AARP gets good discounts on car insurance).

If you could limit the comparison to similar driver demographics (or, more easy, to >$50,000 sedans), the analysis would be more probative.
 
“....walks out front, looks at the Solar PV array on house oversized to make 175%, electrons transported maybe 50 ft, good for 30-50+ years...”
50,000,000 solar roofs

With all due respect, how is this relevant to mass utility scale PV and the challenges of transporting the generated electrons from the source (N.Africa) to the consumers on the other side of the Mediterranean in Europe?

Or did I miss a conversation started here on residential roof top PV with grid-tie?
With the density of messages and topics in this thread this is certainly a possibility.
 

In particular, sources told Reuters that the two would pool resources on autonomous technology development, with Ford given use of the VW Group's MEB electric car platform. Volkswagen would gain access to the architecture of the Ford Transit van and Ranger pick-up – and the move could lead to VW cars being built in Ford plants."​

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This is quite interesting as Ford may be facing big problems in the future with regards to the Transit, should Mr Trump carry out his threat re: trade action against Turkey. The Transit has always been a big seller in the U.K. And I assume on the continent ? This vehicle was built here for many years until the EU in it's infinite wisdom "bribed" Ford to move it to Turkey as a sweetener prelude to EU entry which sadly didn't happen ( yet) Not sure why Vw would want the Ranger ( built in Thailand ?) when they have a good homemade product
 
Not sure why Vw would want the Ranger ( built in Thailand ?) when they have a good homemade product

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New Ranger. Built in the USA. Then in several countries all over the world.

I think it is superior to the Tanoak and will have vastly superior economies of scale. I am sure VW North American dealers would rather have a Ranger based pickup even if its +$500 or so over the Ranger.

I think it is simple enough for Ford to engineer their own MEB electric platform. But they can piggy back on VWs economies of scale and purchasing power for battery cells.

BTW 2019 Ford Ranger is .5" longer than a 1990 Ford F150.
 
My main disagreement is that you're giving wind WAY too much credit in terms of predictability. A grid that depends on wind for 10% of generation isn't much of an issue. But 50%+ would be insane without storage.

Excuse me, but Denmark is covering (roughly) 50% of its electricity consumption via wind power - and that is on an annual basis.
 
Citation required... And no, not from Leave conspiracy sites and tabloids, but some real journalism. :D
The Transit left well before bre/it you should know that, Being a lazy bwggger I was relying on you to come up with the non be/it related info, any way the point was Transit sales vis a vis Trump and his latest ploy. This one could get a lot of people killed, do you agree?
 
BTW, my views may seem "traditionalist" but my overarching point is just that wind and solar are great, but we need to pair them with storage.

Somewhat against my intention I find myself contributing to this interesting but OT debate, I will try to stop before we get too far into the EU trading day.

What the grid sees as "storage" can be more than just actual storage (e.g. pumpage storage in connection with hydro, or battery banks or other schemes).

A really powerful concept is just a fair and open market for electricity combined with long distance power transmission (together with ideally a variety of types of electricity production).

Being able to buy and sell electricity from your neigbors is effectively like having storage, what it takes is a serious investment in the grid interconnectors - and a properly regulated market, with proper pricing that reflects demand and supply.

In Northern Europe (Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Finland and the 3 baltic countries) this works pretty well, the power exhange is called Nordpool.

The market needs to work properly though. Otherwise one country may at a windy moment where power costs very little in a neigbboring market decide to shut down their connection to that neigbor to protect (higher priced) deliveries from its own electricy suppliers (leaving their own population to pay more).

So in a country like Spain where the domestic electricity producers have a lot of influence on the regulators, this is unlikely to function well. In a country like Norway, this has worked well for decades. The Chinese - with their strong, centralized regulation - also show good progress in ingesting large amounts of wind power into their grid by using long distance power transmission.

Sorry for the OT, will try to stop now...
 
Daimler Truck CEO Daum talks about Tesla:

“They’re fun; it’s an interesting market. We take every competitor seriously; Tesla has proved they really have the tenacity to really go through huge losses to capture the market. But trucking is a difficult business. They will learn the hard way; trucking is not like passenger cars where one size fits all. There’s a lot of variety in trucking… the United States is a highly competitive market, so as I said, they’re fun,”

What is Daum's message? Because Daimler is no fun, trucks have worse specs but they have a larger variety of trucks they will compete and win against Tesla? Because they sell today 500k per annum but Tesla just started they will win the race?

I understand that there are decades long relationships between the large carriers and Daimler beside others but if the costs per mile is lower and the flexibility how you can use a truck is increased why should they stay with Daimler? Not to mention that Tesla will build the charging network as well. Lately I read that Daimler gave up on platooning which is no surprise to me because they do not have an AP like system that works and known to be not good with SW.

Also, isn't it a sign how nervous Daimler is talking in length about Tesla now, stating before the Tesla truck cannot be true, specs are a lie and defy physics?

If we compare the specs in passenger cars most of the competition actually I do claim all are behind. If we look at the truck business the Semi versus the Daimler Trucks is an order of magnitude more behind.....

Tesla Semi receives warning from Daimler Trucks CEO on 'difficult' trucking market
 
They will learn the hard way; trucking is not like passenger cars where one size fits all.

Um... huh? Passenger car are "one size fits all"? No variety in passenger cars? Really?

I know what he's trying to get at (trucking needs can vary a lot depending on the task, you can't just make a single-config "truck"), but that's a terrible analogy.
 
Whoa, wonder what this will do to macros if it plays out...

Theresa May says no Brexit more likely than no deal
(Please, no "Brexit good" vs. "Brexit Bad" / "EU good" vs. "EU bad" discussion)

It seems to be more of an "Accept my deal or fail the will of the voters" threat than a "I'm going to make this happen" promise, and is saying that MPs would block Brexit rather than her. But it's interesting seeing May talk so openly about the concept.

Chaos and uncertainty right up to the end...
 
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Daimler Truck CEO Daum talks about Tesla:

“They’re fun; it’s an interesting market. We take every competitor seriously; Tesla has proved they really have the tenacity to really go through huge losses to capture the market. But trucking is a difficult business. They will learn the hard way; trucking is not like passenger cars where one size fits all. There’s a lot of variety in trucking… the United States is a highly competitive market, so as I said, they’re fun,”

Tesla Semi receives warning from Daimler Trucks CEO on 'difficult' trucking market

As a German I might say this is a typical Daimler arrogant/condescending/patronising thing to say...”die sind lustig” meaning they’re not taken seriously.
 
Good news for TE. Finally some traction in Europe/ Greece . Looks like they make a POC in Limnos.

Tons of opportunity in Greece for projects on their many Islands and I bet they calculate quickly very profitably beside being environmentally good. With all the sun they have its just the right thing to do. Most Islands have good wind conditions too.

Lets hope they find some coins they can invest....

“Today, the Minister of Environment and Energy, Mr. George Stathakis, met with Tesla executives in order to exchange views on the strategy of fossil fuel dependence on the islands of the country, especially those not connected in the next years with the mainland power grid. The National Energy and Climate Plan provides for a gradual abandonment of oil burning units and a switch to Renewable Energy Sources (RES). However, the stochastic character of photovoltaic or wind power action creates significant energy storage and recovery needs of modern network management technologies."

Tesla proposes microgrids with solar and batteries to power Greek islands