Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[KarenRei]

Helpfully, solar and wind also peak at different times of the year.

And the times of the seasonal peaks depends on geography. For example, in the US:

Power can be shared between different regions with HVDC (or to a lesser extent, HVAC) links, which also simultaneously stabilize regional grids. China's gone big on this, bringing power from deep inland to the densely populated coast.

All of the above factors combine to turn "highly variable" into "surprisingly predictable and manageable".

 

[1101011]

I think the problem with your analysis is that you overlook the demographic differences between Tesla drivers and average drivers. Tesla drivers are less likely to be drunk, aggressive or reckless because they are (a) richer and (b) older than the average driver...

May have been the case prior to the introduction of the Model 3, but hardly true now.

 

[Chickenlittle]

I think the problem with your analysis is that you overlook the demographic differences between Tesla drivers and average drivers. Tesla drivers are less likely to be drunk, aggressive or reckless because they are (a) richer and (b) older than the average driver (there's a reason why AARP gets good discounts on car insurance).

If you could limit the comparison to similar driver demographics (or, more easy, to >$50,000 sedans), the analysis would be more probative.

No I believe alcoholics are cured by buying a tesla.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Daimler Truck CEO Daum talks about Tesla:

“They’re fun; it’s an interesting market. We take every competitor seriously; Tesla has proved they really have the tenacity to really go through huge losses to capture the market. But trucking is a difficult business. They will learn the hard way; trucking is not like passenger cars where one size fits all. There’s a lot of variety in trucking… the United States is a highly competitive market, so as I said, they’re fun,”

What is Daum's message? Because Daimler is no fun, trucks have worse specs but they have a larger variety of trucks they will compete and win against Tesla? Because they sell today 500k per annum but Tesla just started they will win the race?

I understand that there are decades long relationships between the large carriers and Daimler beside others but if the costs per mile is lower and the flexibility how you can use a truck is increased why should they stay with Daimler? Not to mention that Tesla will build the charging network as well. Lately I read that Daimler gave up on platooning which is no surprise to me because they do not have an AP like system that works and known to be not good with SW.

Also, isn't it a sign how nervous Daimler is talking in length about Tesla now, stating before the Tesla truck cannot be true, specs are a lie and defy physics?

If we compare the specs in passenger cars most of the competition actually I do claim all are behind. If we look at the truck business the Semi versus the Daimler Trucks is an order of magnitude more behind.....

Tesla Semi receives warning from Daimler Trucks CEO on 'difficult' trucking market

It is nice that Daimler is so concerned and tries to protect tesla

 

[KarenRei]

Opening down -2%. Tough hill to climb. But, you never know with TSLA

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

And the times of the seasonal peaks depends on geography. For example, in the US:

Power can be shared between different regions with HVDC (or to a lesser extent, HVAC) links, which also simultaneously stabilize regional grids. China's gone big on this, bringing power from deep inland to the densely populated coast.

All of the above factors combine to turn "highly variable" into "surprisingly predictable and manageable".

Those graphs should how the cost and efficiency trends in solar could lead to an (ironic metaphor) explosion in installation. There are regions where solar is the already the cheapest source, and regions where wind is the cheapest source. If solar and wind become the two cheapest sources in a region, the synergy will accelerate deployment of both.

 

[ReflexFunds]

Denmark is a tiny country with pretty low consumption that can dump it's excesses (or borrow from) Sweden, Norway and Germany.

Wind power wont be more than a supplement. It's too variable. Power generation goes to the fourth power of wind speed, so forecasts being off by just hugely impact power generation.

It's nowhere near as predictable as solar. It can generate nothing for weeks at a time then generate at 100% for weeks at a time. Adding a full day of storage to something like that doesn't increase the capacity factor as well as something like solar.

Offshore wing is not cheap either, it's triple the cost of onshore wind, and future price declines are 100% in solar's favor since wind still needs huge amounts of steel and concrete structures.

When we get all of our power from renewables it's going to come from solar in sunny places with dependable sunlight for all seasons pumped to where it is needed... For Europe that means Northern Africa.

When all the fossil plants are dead that's when the nuclear plants should be taken offline, IMHO.

What do you think the average capacity factor of utility scale solar is currently, and how would it increase if paired with 4 hour batteries?

In the new Hawaii projects they are pairing 262MW of solar with 262MW/1048MWh of battery storage. I'm wondering how many MW of fossil fuel capacity this can replace.
If solar average capacity factor is 20% in winter in Hawaii, then solar output would average 1,258MWh per day. Say 11 hours of daylight in winter so this is 114MW in daylight hours. If 50% is used for electricity and 50% for charging the battery, then this can provide c.57MW of electricity on average during the day. Assuming 10% battery losses then the battery can be charged by 563MWh during the day. This can then output at 43MW for 13 hours during the night.

This leaves plenty of room to build a 400MWh buffer of storage in the battery to account for additional variability.

I've never looked at how these things are normally calculated, so please correct me If i'm thinking about it wrong, but I think this 262MW solar & 1048MWh battery can provide 24 hour electricity to replace 57MW/90% = 63MW of fossil fuel plants? (The 90% is an estimated capacity factor for the fossil fuel plant, Edit: Increased from 70% as will be higher in winter daylight hours where I'm stressing the system).

 

[Fact Checking]

New Opening down -2%. Tough hill to climb. But, you never know with TSLA

Interesting resilience at the $339-$340 level, despite falling macro indices - and at comparatively high volume as well.

It might not last, but indicates significant buy on dip interest.

 

[jhm]

Daimler Truck CEO Daum talks about Tesla:

“They’re fun; it’s an interesting market. We take every competitor seriously; Tesla has proved they really have the tenacity to really go through huge losses to capture the market. But trucking is a difficult business. They will learn the hard way; trucking is not like passenger cars where one size fits all. There’s a lot of variety in trucking… the United States is a highly competitive market, so as I said, they’re fun,”

What is Daum's message? Because Daimler is no fun, trucks have worse specs but they have a larger variety of trucks they will compete and win against Tesla? Because they sell today 500k per annum but Tesla just started they will win the race?

I understand that there are decades long relationships between the large carriers and Daimler beside others but if the costs per mile is lower and the flexibility how you can use a truck is increased why should they stay with Daimler? Not to mention that Tesla will build the charging network as well. Lately I read that Daimler gave up on platooning which is no surprise to me because they do not have an AP like system that works and known to be not good with SW.

Also, isn't it a sign how nervous Daimler is talking in length about Tesla now, stating before the Tesla truck cannot be true, specs are a lie and defy physics?

If we compare the specs in passenger cars most of the competition actually I do claim all are behind. If we look at the truck business the Semi versus the Daimler Trucks is an order of magnitude more behind.....

Tesla Semi receives warning from Daimler Trucks CEO on 'difficult' trucking market

Let's reframe this from the perspective of Daimler defending its market share. The big issue is building out the battery pack supply chain. For Daimler to defend its 500k market share over the ten year, it will need to ramp up a battery supply of about 300 GWh/yr (average of 600kWh per truck over 15 years useful life of truck). This will challenge Daimler in a way that is different than in the passenger auto space. In the auto space, outsourcing battery packs may work for Daimler, but in the battery hungry heavy truck space, what's the point? The massive batteries are the bulk of value of the truck, like 50% to 80%, whereas in autos we are talking about 20% to 40% of the value of the car. So either Daimler gets serious about building out a 300GWh battery supply just for trucks or it cedes a huge share of the value chain to other companies. Even if Daimler had truck designs today comparable to what Tesla has, we still have a massive contest to see who can build out a 300GWh battery pack supply first.

This is also reveals why Tesla does not need to worry about satisfying all the truck niches at first. They can go straight to the long haul semi first where they have a huge pack supply advantage. Other heavy EV makers have started with fringe segments like transit buses and trash haulers where a lot can be accomplished with relatively small batteries. But the big battery field is wide open for any EV maker that can do the massive supply chain ramp. So Daimler will find itself challenged in two areas. As Tesla pours GWh into the semi market, Daimler may need to retreat more to specialty truck niches, but that is where they will find a host of Chinese companies like BYD making in roads into the niches especially the ones that are most favorable for smaller batteries. I think ultimately Daimler Trucks becomes an acquisition target for competitors with a superior battery supply, as the combination would yoke specialty truck experience with essential battery capabilities.

I wonder if Daum thinks it would be fun to work for Musk.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

What do you think the average capacity factor of utility scale solar is currently, and how would it increase if paired with 4 hour batteries?

In the new Hawaii projects they are pairing 262MW of solar with 262MW/1048MWh of battery storage. I'm wondering how many MW of fossil fuel capacity this can replace.
If solar average capacity factor is 20% in winter in Hawaii, then solar output would average 1,258MWh per day. Say 11 hours of daylight in winter so this is 114MW in daylight hours. If 50% is used for electricity and 50% for charging the battery, then this can provide c.57MW of electricity on average during the day. Assuming 10% battery losses then the battery can be charged by 563MWh during the day. This can then output at 43MW for 13 hours during the night.

This leaves plenty of room to build a 400MWh buffer of storage in the battery to account for additional variability.

I've never looked at how these things are normally calculated, so please correct me If i'm thinking about it wrong, but I think this 262MW solar & 1048MWh battery can provide 24 hour electricity to replace 57MW/70% = 81MW of fossil fuel plants? (The 70% is an estimated capacity factor for the fossil fuel plant).

EIA is currently using overall 28% capacity factor for new utility US solar. That's using current data, I believe. Solar is currently installed in sunny areas, of course, so capacity factor would be lower elsewhere. But, solar will likely spread largely with efficiency improvements (larger impact than cost reductions in less sunny locations), so we _could_ see average new capacity factors trend _upwards_ rather than downwards, although winter capacity factors would fall as installation spread north. (Not to worry too much about winter economics, since with colder winters, the winter cost of alternatives would also rise with natural gas prices.)

Here's EIA Capacity Factors for renewables this year up to end October 2018:
EIA - Electricity Data

 

[StealthP3D]

Well, love it or hate it, satan or saint, the majority of the American Electoral College votes did go to him so he is our President. Let us not throw stones, on the likelihood that it might place your glass house in peril, especially if one did not have a say in putting him in the Oval Office. Why are we lingering of politics in this thread anyway?

Just a thought...

Dan

Wait...you just told us who you voted for, for President of the United States, and you want us to stop talking politics?

 

[anthonyj]

Waiting til 11:30 to buy, looks like a 5% down day

 

[SageBrush]

Over-egged or not, as my mom used to say 'If you don't eat your meat you can't have any pudding'.

That is not a threat when it comes to british pudding.

 

[Fact Checking]

They can go straight to the long haul semi first where they have a huge pack supply advantage.

I agree with most of your post, but I think Tesla's primary target should be (and will be) the short haul market - which is more than 70% of the U.S. market. Those are highly concentrated fleets, not individual operators, with significant idle time for individual trucks when trucks can be recharged - while the most profitable long haul market is team-driving where the truck is essentially never idle.

I.e. 'long haul' is a specific niche they should address with their 2nd and 3rd generation vehicles.

The 1st generation Tesla Semi should aim to replace the tens of thousands of trucks polluting cities with short haul duties. That will also trigger legislation and regulation excluding diesel trucks from ports and logistics centers - which will further erode the market position of ICE trucks.

 

[KarenRei]

Waiting til 11:30 to buy, looks like a 5% down day

Hard to maintain such a long upward streak as we've had. Eventually people just get to looking for any excuse possible to profit take.

 

[Rogstar]

Think you're over egging the pudding there old bean

Actually, I don't think so.
Hinkley locks the UK taxpayer to an already uncompetitive price for 35 years after (eventual?) completion.
I think those eggs would be scrambled?

 

[SageBrush]

As for the specific case of Denmark: Yes, they do rely on their connections to their neighbors to support their high wind penetration. But that's the whole point. That's how you make a high-renewables grid. A particularly valuable contribution is its connections with hydro-rich Norway and Sweden; hydro acts like a giant battery (#5).

Exactly. Intermittency is reduced by a larger area.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Wait...you just told us who you voted for, for President of the United States, and you want us to stop talking politics?

Actually, no I didn't. You do realize there were more than two candidates on the ballot, right?

Dan

 

[cheshire cat]

Yeah, journalists not lying and trying to write truthful articles still exist. I was asking for some background information about the supposed incident of the EU bribing Ford to move production from the UK to Turkey.

(It's rather ironic that Brexiters are actually inflicting more harm on UK carmakers than the EU ever did.)

Since you asked nicely-----
Ford under fire over grants payment
Car giant Ford has been criticised for accepting millions of pounds from UK taxpayers in the run-up to announcing the closure of its last British assembly plant, with the loss of 1,400 jobs.
PUBLISHED: 13:43, Tue, Nov 6, 2012

0

Production of Ford's Transit van will switch from Swaythling in Southampton to Turkey [PA]

The vehicle manufacturer received cash from the regional growth fund (RGF) to help develop its Dagenham base, and was given an £80 million loan from the European Investment Bank (EIB) for its factory in Turkey, before revealing it would shut its plant at Swaythling in Southampton.

Production of Ford's Transit van will switch from Swaythling to Turkey, having been based in Southampton - the company's last UK vehicle assembly plant - for 40 years.

The Government said the regional growth fund cash helped protect jobs - and argued the money could still have been granted even if ministers knew about the plan to shut Swaythling next July. But Labour's former innovation and skills secretary John Denham, MP for Southampton Itchen, said: "It is extraordinary that a regional growth fund grant was made to Ford without the Government being aware of the wider Ford strategy. NB. @2% interest over a norm of 9%. At the time, looks like a bribe to me

 

[cheshire cat]

Actually, I don't think so.
Hinkley locks the UK taxpayer to an already uncompetitive price for 35 years after (eventual?) completion.
I think those eggs would be scrambled?

Not the part I was referring to