Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SebastianR]

OT: Well, so far we are seeing an interesting new color on the chart. Since I didn't know it, I did a bit of research and 9 of the 10 experts that I asked agree that this seems to be "green".1 Expert told me that this is a clear case of "Mantis"...

 

[KarenRei]

Reminder: today is the last day for anyone who has access to get ahold of the latest analyst EPS predictions and share them with us

 

[shlokavica22]

AMD is on fire today.

I don't know if many of you follow the stock, but its story can give an indication what will happen with TSLA soon.
AMD had/have a great products. However, against them stood a behemoth, that played dirty and had deep pockets.
The market appreciated the products, but was skeptical of the earning potential (they were losing money for years).

And then, just like that, they turned a profit. And again, and again. They do the unthinkable, eating the high margin market of Goliath

AMD is not even a fraction of the potential TSLA has.

 

[Tslynk67]

Holy crap, AMD up 15% - have been watching it for some weeks, it's an even better swing stock than $TSLA

 

[Chickenlittle]

Have learned to ignore price action on day of report

 

[MartinAustin]

5%... Currently 1.5 hrs into premarket - up 0.18%
This guy is an idiot - DO NOT TAKE HIS "NOT AN ADVICE"!

Own Horn = Blown

$303... looking strong

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I think we're squeezing up to a fresh ATH after earnings. Might take til US/China is "resolved", but I think it's coming.

Model 3 production is ramped.
Automotive is profitable.
Model Y details will be announced.
China Gigafactory is in the works.
OEMs are still years behind.

Exactly what else are we waiting on? Other than Energy, the plan seems on track.

Of course I got greedy and never got my call purchases in, but what else is new.

 

[cheshire cat]

...and apparently friends don't let friends Brexit. lol!

(I don't even know what Brexit is [ignorant Yank here] so there's that.)

Dan

Hi Dan. A little help

 

[MP3Mike]

Why do you think they have not already designed the new packs? I contend they did the design work before they committed to the 2170 as a precondition for approving the new form factor.

Maybe because on one of the earnings calls they said that redesigning a pack for the 2170s would be more work than it was worth?

 

[Krugerrand]

Recent tweet from Karpathy:

1) Tesla as always seems to be on the right path - Agile - building up your model as you go. Start simple is the mantra.
2) It has cats...

Input 3

“This”

“is” “a”

“cat”

I heard that.

 

[Cherry Wine]

He said post ER. That's why it's confusing.

I think he meant exp post-ER? But yes it is confusing. I’m looking to write some options today to collect some of that sky high premium.

 

[AudubonB]

He said post ER. That's why it's confusing.

This, by the way, clarifies so much. Most especially, it demonstrates why we buy-and-holders think you traders almost always end up losing.

You see, TSLA is a postER child for price volatility.

 

[Tslynk67]

Reminder: today is the last day for anyone who has access to get ahold of the latest analyst EPS predictions and share them with us

$2.2 EPS on @CNBC, so what's that, about $360m?

 

[ReflexFunds]

I find it very hard to form a strong view on the market reaction to Tesla's earnings today.

On the positive side I am fairly confident Tesla will post:

• Q4 cash flow significantly higher than consensus.
• Positive cash flow guidance for 2019.
  
• Q4 net profit also potentially ahead of consensus.

However the media is almost certain to focus on:

• The cut to 2019 S/X production targets
• Quarter on quarter decline in net profit
• Potentially Q4 revenue slightly missing an inflated consensus.
• Lower US 3 deliveries in 1H19 (despite this being due to RoW deliveries and Tesla deliberating not yet releasing cheaper Model 3 variants).

Most important to Tesla's long term story will be:

• Guidance on 2019 model 3 cost reduction and the steps that will be taken to achieve this. (another $5k or so reduction is needed to make 25% average Model 3 gross margin once $35k base is available)
• Current weekly order rate of Model 3 in US and confirmed order backlog in RoW.
  
• 2019 3 and S&X delivery target.
• Progress with AP3 release and what software upgrades are ready to release with this.
• Timeline for Semi, Y and Pickup production
• 2020 and 2025 total car production target (750k 2020, 3-6m 2025?) and energy storage target (5-10 GWh 2020, 30-200 Gwh 2025?)

I think it would be very helpful if Elon clearly explains to the market the breakdown between maintenance/replacement capex (likely $400-600m per year currently) and expansion capex. And also how annual cash flow before expansion capex, working capital and debt repayment is currently running about $3.5-4bn higher than net profit. I think this could help reduce all the noise on how Tesla are going to repay the converts and fund Y/GF3.

 

[Fact Checking]

$2.2 EPS on @CNBC, so what's that, about $360m?

View attachment 373094

Q3'18 was a non-GAAP EPS of $2.90 on GAAP earnings of $311m.

A Q4'18 EPS consensus of $2.20 indicates expectations of non-GAAP earnings of about $235m.

After the ER we can certainly count on the FUD machine to find the financial data network that had the highest EPS and revenue estimates - be it First Call, Bloomberg or FactSet, and run with a story of "Tesla missing Wall Street expectations" based on that, syndicated to thousands of headlines globally.

Edit: non-GAAP, as @Hock1 pointed it out.

 

[AudubonB]

$2.2 EPS on @CNBC, so what's that, about $360m?

View attachment 373094

Oh sheesh! Who's the knucklehead with that $4.34 estimate - or is it a bear with a mischievous bent?

 

[dmvevguy]

I find it very hard to form a strong view on the market reaction to Tesla's earnings today.

On the positive side I am fairly confident Tesla will post:

• Q4 cash flow significantly higher than consensus.
• Positive cash flow guidance for 2019.
  
• Q4 net profit also potentially ahead of consensus.

I hope we get some updates on FSD. Advanced summon got the regulatory approval etc.

 

[Hock1]

Q3'18 was a GAAP EPS of $2.90 on GAAP earnings of $311m.

A Q4'18 EPS consensus of $2.20 indicates expectations of GAAP earnings of about $235m.

After the ER we can certainly count on the FUD machine to find the financial data network that had the highest EPS and revenue estimates - be it First Call, Bloomberg or FactSet, and run with a story of "Tesla missing Wall Street expectations" based on that, syndicated to thousands of headlines globally.

FC..Actually, the $2.90 was non-GAAP. The $311M equates to $1.80 GAAP earnings.

 

[Wooloomooloo]

This guy is an idiot - DO NOT TAKE HIS "NOT AN ADVICE"!

Anyone who writes "not an advice" is an idiot. It's not a literate phrase.

 

[Krugerrand]

What's positive is that it's well put together, as you'd expect from an Audi, and sounds like a super-quiet and comfortable ride. This will appeal to some.

Pfft! My 3 is also super quiet and has a comfortable ride when I just sit in it in my garage. The bonus is I can actually drive it like I stole it and make it more than once around the block.