Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[avoigt]

The price cut is awesome news and I do not recall any car company that ever passes cost savings trough to consumers just like that and kind of immediately.

Good news for the day to start and Elon is fully accurate in stating that for many the 3 is at the $35k level already. It will be below $30k when the SR will be released with a price tag of $35.

Overlooked again by most is that every Dollar the price goes down other car manufacturer be it still pure ICE, a mixture between ICE & EV or pure BEV producers get a bigger problem.

Not only that they could not produce their EVs profitable before they are measured now against the lowest price point Tesla does offer, demanded by consumers and the challenge does increase for them in a market where prices of Batteries for most go up while going down for Tesla.

 

[avoigt]

Model 3 now $35K....

Elon just tweeted.

“.....Model 3 starting cost now ~$35k (after ~$8k of credits & fuel savings)....”

.....I just wish Tesla would stop the “after credits and fuel saving” BS. There is a serious need for honesty in advertising: not all potential buyers can realise that saving. A car that costs $43k cost $43k, and not $35k.


A buyer that can then realise $8k saving: great for you!

Tesla does post both prices on their web site so you have full transparency.

Its important to point out the lower costs as most people are still confused and compare a BEV price tag to an ICE price tag.

I welcome that the post the price after savings as well as its an important information.
1h1 hour ago
They show both prices. And it’s nice to see when you’re trying to compare to a gas car.


Elon Musk‏Verified account @elonmusk
Replying to @notNahuel @SnazzyQ
Exactly. Both prices are shown right next to each other & lower price is *actually* the real apples to apples cost vs a fuel car. In fact, for many states in the US, it’s way better.

Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[SebastianR]

Just to be clear, I'm not disagreeing with you about the fact that a tiny profit or no profit matters or that Q1 in the long term won't matter. I just feel bad for investors that bought calls, are on margin, or bought options. Tesla could have easily waited until after Q1 earnings to do this since there isn't any demand issue forcing them to.

This is to all of us: We should keep in mind that Tesla right now does NOT need to pamper TSLA. With no equity raise coming up and no new debt required, Tesla can focus on all matters of its business and does not need to pamper silly Wall Street analysts. So don't expect any delay / any curation of information with regards to investors. Tesla will do whatever they think is required/desired from a customer, supply chain, employees perspective but I don't think that a self-funding Tesla will spend much consideration on timing information / management action right for investors who bought options on margin etc....

 

[schonelucht]

Johnson is really unlucky with her trading plan. Second month in a row that she's executing options for 1700 shares and selling the stock right away for a gain of literally pennies per share. Personally not so familiar with how these pre-approved trading plans work. Can't you set a limit price under which you will not convert? Her option purchase price is $319.57 and only expire in 2024. Shorter termed calls at that price are already worth $88 so any exercise price set today below $400 seems foolish. What do I miss?

 

[Fact Checking]

.....I just wish Tesla would stop the “after credits and fuel saving” BS. There is a serious need for honesty in advertising: not all potential buyers can realise that saving. A car that costs $43k cost $43k, and not $35k.

I disagree, because actually the large majority of drivers that drive average mileage will be able to realize those savings, with the exception of a few places with mispriced electricity. We also know that Tesla owners tend to increase the mileage they are driving, because the car is fun and the fuel costs are much lower.

So this is not BS, at all: a $43k cost is only $43k if we ignore absolutely every other cost that comes after buying the car. Making buyers aware of the significantly lower total cost of ownership of EVs is an important part of the messaging.

Note how distorted and dishonest advertised ICE fuel use costs are already: if you've ever driven ICE cars that have a chance to compare to Tesla cars in terms of acceleration you'll know that actual ICE fuel use is often much higher than the EPA fuel economy estimates.

Factors the EPA fuel economy figures to not include:

• with a Tesla car the stop-and-go penalty in heavy traffic is much lower,
• with a Tesla car the accelerate/decelerate dynamic driving penalty is much lower as well,
• with a Tesla car the idling/waiting fuel use is much lower as well,
• with a Tesla car the efficiency of air-conditioning is much better, because it doesn't have to be driven by an inefficient engine.

(Also, as Elon just tweeted in a followup, savings are much higher in certain states - I suspect Tesla is estimating these conservatively.)

 

[RobStark]

Daimler’s quarterly profit falls 22% as investment costs, tariffs hit Mercedes

STUTTGART -- Daimler's fourth-quarter operating profit fell 22 percent as trade wars and ballooning costs for developing electric and self-driving cars hit profits at the Mercedes-Benz Cars, the company said on Wednesday.

Mercedes emerged as the biggest selling luxury brand globally last year with 2.31 million new vehicle registrations, followed by BMW brand's 2.12 million and Audi which posted registrations of 1.81 million.

 

[RobStark]

Actually, the vast majority of average drivers that drive average mileage will be able to realize those savings. We also know that Tesla owners tend to increase the mileage they are driving, because the car is fun and the fuel costs are much lower.

So this is not BS, at all: a $43k cost is only $43k if you ignore absolutely every other cost that comes after buying the car. Making buyers aware of the significantly lower total cost of ownership of EVs is an important part of the messaging.

(As Elon just tweeted in a followup, savings are much higher in certain states - I suspect Tesla is estimating these conservatively.)

Much lower in certain cities.

It depends on the price differential between gas and the electricity you buy.

Some don't have access EV or TOU plans.

Some don't have access to home charging.

 

[Fact Checking]

Some don't have access to home charging.

True, but it's a small minority actually, the last data I saw was that less than 5% of the charging sessions are not at home?

This is why both figures are displayed on Tesla's website: full cost and estimated savings.

 

[cheshire cat]

This is to all of us: We should keep in mind that Tesla right now does NOT need to pamper TSLA. With no equity raise coming up and no new debt required, Tesla can focus on all matters business and does not need to pamper silly Wall Street analysts. So don't expect any delay / any curation of information with regards to investors. Tesla will do whatever they think is required/desired from a customer, supply chain, employees perspective but I don't think that a self-funding Tesla will spend much consideration on timing information / management action right for investors who bought options on margin etc....

Exactly too many outfits nearly ruined or wrecked because the captain was more worried about share price ( and loss of face? ) and keeping shareholders and bankers happy than concentrating on business and it's growth. Too many parasites feeding on Tesla whilst contributing nothing to the point of seeing it ruined, as long as there's a dollar left in it for them, if longs can go together better private.

 

[Fact Checking]

Exactly too many outfits nearly ruined or wrecked because the captain was more worried about share price ( and loss of face? ) and keeping shareholders and bankers happy than concentrating on business and it's growth.

Also note the latest fad in the U.S. to manage the share price: stock buyback programs financed by ... corporate debt. I'm not kidding you.

 

[FrANce]

Nothing wrong with moving down the price - demand curve per se - but if you claim you are production constrained it doesn't fit. If I claim there's enough people to buy 5000/week of $50k + Model 3, why would I drop the price and lose 5 million bucks a week of profit?

Your answer is in the Tesla Q4 Update Letter:

"As we improve the production rate of Model 3, the cost per vehicle continues to decline. It is critical that we continue this trend so that we can keep increasing the affordability of Model 3 while retaining a sustainable level of profitability"

 

[cheshire cat]

Also note the latest fad in the U.S. to manage the share price: stock buyback programs financed by ... corporate debt. I'm not kidding you.

Interesting Sounds a little like some other outfit I know, as the old ad' used to say "Schussh you know who"

 

[mongo]

Another aspect I am not sure if it has been mentioned. Tax credit fell 3750. Price fell 2000. But for companies such as car rental companies, taxi companies etc the tax credit was meaningless. Maybe they will pick up some of the demand now. So hopefully when I roadtrip rental comapnies will start offering Model 3 for rent? Seems like a lot of us would love to drive a Model 3 when we go on a holiday. And the taxi companies must at some point realize that driving Model 3 as a taxi makes a lot of sense? Maybe Tesla gave some companies a good deal for a few hundred Model 3 if taking delivery in March when they shift production from Europe to America again.

Why do you say the tax credit meaningless to car rental and taxi companies?
See Business Tax Credits | Internal Revenue Service
Form 8910 points to Form 8936
https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/f8936.pdf

Totally creditable for business.

 

[EVMeister]

Daphne‏ @DeeLex_MCEM
Omg IT'S HERE! Just saw a bright red @TESLA MODEL 3 in the streets of Paris for the FIRST time ever! I screamed of surprise (& happiness, lbr) in my motorcycle helmet. No kidding. I can hear Marie Kondo "Does this spark joy for you?" Yes yes, yes it does. Thank you @elonmusk

5:21 AM - 5 Feb 2019

Her Twitter account doesn't seem to exist now? Was she jumped on by TSLAQ morons?

 

[Sancho]

Why is anyone surprised by this small M3 price cut? Tesla’s long standing business plan is to reduce the base price to $35k. To do that and sustain margins requires a long slog of cost cutting and efficiency improvements and scale. Rather than waiting to make a big jump down to $35k, Tesla is gradually reducing the lowest price version as it continues to lower its costs. They achieve the gradual price floor reduction by periodically reconfiguring the car offering (e.g. introducing MR) and small periodic price cuts. I expect over the course of this year the lowest price M3 will drop every few months until it finally hits 35k.

 

[Huskyf]

Tanks Elon price cut of Model 3 = Big dip on TSLA$

 

[gora321]

Her Twitter account doesn't seem to exist now? Was she jumped on by TSLAQ morons?

True.No idea what happened.

 

[gora321]

Why GM is laying off more workers amid healthy profits

 

[lklundin]

Just a quick note to say that the vehicle carrier 'Morning Cindy' has left Pier 80 bound for China (Shanghai) with ETA Feb. 20,
MORNING CINDY Current position (Vehicles Carrier, IMO 9633185) - VesselFinder

 

[lklundin]

Partnership with Amazon is a big deal. It makes sense with Tesla's sales structure, works well with their goal of selling everything online with simple clicks. This way they don't need to spend money on sales & marketing, don't need to worry about shipping. And Amazon isn't localized, they are world-wide.

Yes, this is one area where Tesla is wise not to attempt vertical integration.

As of a few days, the German version of tesla.com offers to order a Model 3 with an optional extra set of wheels w. winter tires. Unlike the remainder of the page, the text describing this option is in Dutch... So better let Amazon handle the non-essential sales - at least until Tesla can manage to make their own web-pages work.

Btw, estimated Model 3 delivery if I order now is still March.

PS. Further to the above, two days ago when logged into my account at tesla.com, I got an access denied when trying to configure my Model 3...