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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
I volunteered when I visited my Service Centre last week, but they said they were all prepared and good. We only have five SC in France, and the others are too far away from us.
anonymous @EricSteiman
$NFLX is a 155B company and generated NEGATIVE 2.5B in FCF for all of 2018.
$TSLA is a 50B company and generated 1.7B combined in Q3 & Q4
10:10 AM - 15 Feb 2019
anonymous on Twitter
I love Tesla and am utterly frustrated by the lack of progress in its share price. However, these two companies share almost nothing in common in terms of how they should be valued.
So there is this from yesterday:
Tesla’s latest challenge is finding new customers for the Model 3
My reading of the narrative:
1. Quoting Elon from earnings call out of context to say that there is no demand for the M3 because no one can afford it.
2. This is even after price cuts and its getting worse because tax benefit going away, so no way to sell M3 until $35k version and they can’t make money on that one.
3. Low sales figures in January and layoffs in delivery will make that worse (quoting and mis-reading the InsideEV article and the earnings call info)
4. Idea that China and Europe could save him from the above crisis is dubious because he said addition of those markets would bring the total to 800k vehicles per year, of course taking his sunny future forecast to be the requirement to save the day right now.
5. He can’t make 800k vehicles per year without the China gigafactory, so omg can’t get out of the current mess until that happens, he is doomed, he can only make 300k vehicles or so per year in Fremont.
6. Tesla won’t release data on remaining reservations, so there are probably very few left, and those folks won’t buy anyway until that $35k version arrives.
7. China car sales seeing first decline in decades, sourced from Reuters. This could be the only factual info in this article.
Worse part is misquoting Elon out of context in earnings call, to imply he said there is no US demand because no one can afford the car. Good grief.
Tesla’s latest challenge is finding new customers for the Model 3
My reading of the narrative:
1. Quoting Elon from earnings call out of context to say that there is no demand for the M3 because no one can afford it.
2. This is even after price cuts and its getting worse because tax benefit going away, so no way to sell M3 until $35k version and they can’t make money on that one.
3. Low sales figures in January and layoffs in delivery will make that worse (quoting and mis-reading the InsideEV article and the earnings call info)
4. Idea that China and Europe could save him from the above crisis is dubious because he said addition of those markets would bring the total to 800k vehicles per year, of course taking his sunny future forecast to be the requirement to save the day right now.
5. He can’t make 800k vehicles per year without the China gigafactory, so omg can’t get out of the current mess until that happens, he is doomed, he can only make 300k vehicles or so per year in Fremont.
6. Tesla won’t release data on remaining reservations, so there are probably very few left, and those folks won’t buy anyway until that $35k version arrives.
7. China car sales seeing first decline in decades, sourced from Reuters. This could be the only factual info in this article.
Worse part is misquoting Elon out of context in earnings call, to imply he said there is no US demand because no one can afford the car. Good grief.
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JRP3
Hyperactive Member
China
*Is there some reason Twitter images don't seem to work on this forum? I had to download then upload to make this work.
Vincent on Twitter
*Is there some reason Twitter images don't seem to work on this forum? I had to download then upload to make this work.
Vincent on Twitter
Don’t forget that the Middle East also owns the largest refinery in the US. So even if the oil is from the US, there is a possibility that the Saudis will make money from the refinement.
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shrspeedblade
Rideshare Monkey
I know we'll get Q1 2019 numbers in early April (assuming nothing changes),
have they ever broken it down into destination i.e. N. America/Europe/China? That would be very telling.
I guess we here on the board could at least make an informed estimate based on how many ships deliver abroad.
have they ever broken it down into destination i.e. N. America/Europe/China? That would be very telling.
I guess we here on the board could at least make an informed estimate based on how many ships deliver abroad.
Dan Detweiler
Active Member
Also the official language in European countries isn't english except in the UK. And even though many people do speak english, a lot don't so... it's a little bit tricky
I watch almost daily this stats page about Twitter user, and EM account is growing faster by the day:
elonmusk Monthly Twitter Statistics (Social Blade Twitter Statistics) - SocialBlade.com
He has more followers than BBC, and next one will be @POTUS (he's 72, click the button at the bottom to see more accounts):
Find out who's not following you back on Twitter, Tumblr, & Pinterest.
Having said this, I think Tesla could easily step up his own PR machine, and Musk could retweet constantly that account. I feel they are already doing more than few months ago.
If Gemmingen reaches 1'000'000 km that would be a hell of a interview/video, for example.
I don’t see how that is relevant to any meaningful measure of local vs imported energy. Especially I don’t see how it relates to a discussion of the difference between BEV and ICE vehicles with respect to domestic vs imported energy usage, which was the original topic, especially the abundant misunderstandings about that.
Perhaps you believe that when calculating levels US energy independence, ie percentage of locally-produced energy, we should reduce the energy counted as local by multiplying total by percentage of local vs foreign investment in the facility? I would not agree.
It’s all about where the money flows, not where the oil is extracted. If the oil was imported from Saudi Arabia and the money from that oil purchase funneled back to the US, most people wouldn’t care that it was imported.
The point I was making is that even when oil IS produced in the us, there is a large chunk of money that STILL goes to the Middle East. Hence ICE owners stating that “their gas was produced here instead of the Middle East” is true but ultimately doesn’t matter. It’s where the money goes... that matters. So EVs are better than gas cars in this regard as well.
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We need to get off fools oil period.
So then you are not talking about energy independence, pertaining to BEV vs ICE, a relevant topic for Tesla investors, but instead financial independence of energy producers from foreign investment, where the profits go, etc, interesting topic but likely not relevant to this forum.
I am talking about the money flowing overseas to terrorist supporting nations. Americans should (and probably do) care more about that than the fallacy of “oil energy independence”. The Middle East is still making vasts amounts of money from our “independence”.
I expect the problem with your graphic may be that “Production” is not reduced by “Exported”.
And a pie chart of the above:
And again the page with all this cool stuff:
Oil Imports and Exports - Energy Explained, Your Guide To Understanding Energy - Energy Information Administration
And even when produced in the US, terrorist supporting nations are STILL likely to make money from it.
Saudis take 100% control of America's largest oil refinery
Lately practically all acts of terrorism in the USA have been perpetrated by Americans (mass shootings etc.). So the money from domestic oil production is flowing to a terrorist supporting nation. The current regime in that nation appears to be supporting these actions.
Question: Judging by the effects, is burning fossil fuels an act of terrorism?
p.s. Listen to Greta Thunberg.
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