Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EVNow]

New member here, great forum!
So been thinking about shorting some of the major automakers. With put options to the next year or so. Thoughts?

Because of recession fears ?

Tesla is not going to make a big dent in any of the major automaker's stock prices anytime soon.

 

[EVNow]

Yeah, I was told that he finds the coincidence amusing.

Most serious users of twitter I know of, who share names of famous personalities, actually don't like the coincidence.

Ofcourse, people use similar names for parody accounts. And many of them are indeed amusing.

 

[EVNow]

OT Data Point:
Spent 2 hours on the Greater Toronto (Ontario, Canada) 400 series highways today.
Good news: saw 18 M3, 18 MS and 15 MX for a total of 51 Teslas.
Bad news: saw +-36,000 ICE, and only a handful of other BEV during the same drive.
Conclusion: We need more Teslas and other BEVs on our roads.
Potential of all BEVs is gargantuan.

Yes - we need to promote BEVs as a solution to the climate change a lot more. Most people who talk about climate change usually mention utilities (and thus solar & wind) but rarely mention cars. When they do, it is mostly to replace them with public transport - which just doesn't work for most of the people in US.

 

[Singuy]

Besides the dealer network, isn't Jaguar's real problem their quality reputation? I've know quite a few people with Jags, and all of them said something like ten days in the shop for every one day's driving. Now I'm sure that's exaggerated, but I'm also sure it felt like that to the owners.

I drove a 2013 Jaguar XF prior to the Model 3. My parents now drive the jag.

I feel like their quality has gotten a lot better.Amazingly, JD dependability report put Jagular just one notch above Honda now. Tata motors really turned things around. Here were some of the problems I had.

1. New water pump @9000 miles
2. New water pump again @ 11000 miles but now it's fixed
3. Oxygen sensor @ 11000 miles
4. Start stop no longer works @ 25k miles
5. Idle vibration @ 40k miles but this happens to all ICE cars pretty much

So nothing major and crazy happened. Not like I had to replace a transmission or dealing with a gasket leak. Certainly didn't have to deal with engine misfires/going into limp mode like my parent's Mercedes with 55k miles on it.

 

[Words of HABIT]

OT - Kudos to all BEV manufacturers, OEM or Upstarts, for expanding Market in BEV, and I wish them all the best.

Truck BEVs. Chart from InsideEVs:
Kudos to all the upstarts BEV, more the better. Altis Motors design looks much more aerodynamic and IMHO better appearance inside and out than the Rivian. The major issue with all these Truck BEVs is that only the upcoming Ford Raptor will offer the 8' truck bed. The Rivian looks to have the shortest truck bed of them all (4'-6"?). By looking at Tesla's design (yes, I know it was more comical mad max shrunk Semi meant to create conversation), it does reveal that the truck will have a full 8' min. truck bed. IMHO, any truck that does not have said 8' truck bed is not considered a work truck and will not be taken seriously. If you can't put a standard 4'X8' sheet of plywood or drywall in the bed with the lift gate closed, you are not going to succeed in the North American truck market. I'm hoping Tesla takes the path least traveled and truly creates a new category of work truck design to differentiate itself from the other truck BEV and ICE designs we have seen so far. Leaders in the truck segment will have a far reaching umbrella affect on their other products. The market for trucks, especially in North America, is enormous (F150 series outselling Honda Civic 3:1 in Canada).

Alternate BEVs.
And for Solo, not to knock a Canadian company, however the market for a three wheel, one passenger, weird mobile is a high niche market. For my family of five, we would need five of these to get around rather than one Tesla. This is definitely not the car Elon/Tesla wishes it were producing. It may do well in Intercity hops (think Pizza delivery) however even a rickshaw can accommodate three people standard. The Solo is a glorified covered motorcycle, however even with a motorcycle that can accommodate a 2nd passenger, the Solo can not.

Thanks, but I'm sticking with my TSLA shares.

 

[cheshire cat]

I've heard the saying that you're supposed to buy two Jags, so you always have one to drive while the other is in the shop

We have a saying" many a true word spoken in jest". Have triple uptick

 

[EVNow]

Yes - we need to promote BEVs as a solution to the climate change a lot more. Most people who talk about climate change usually mention utilities (and thus solar & wind) but rarely mention cars. When they do, it is mostly to replace them with public transport - which just doesn't work for most of the people in US.

I more thing I should mention.

People go after "big oil" all the time. But rarely mention that they themselves drive gas cars, sending weekly donation to "big oil" !

 

[Cosmacelf]

Were public ever allowed into Panasonic areas? Didn't think that happened.

Well apparently so. Mind you, this was six months before the GF started producing cells. It was the big “grand opening” where Tesla owners were invited to essentially a big party. The tour itself was just ok since none of the equipment was operating. We saw a mixing tank room. A giant rack filled room for the formation step (which supposedly doesn’t exist anymore), some roller machines, and the ovens/dryers. We also saw a pretty slowly moving small line for Powerpack final assembly. We also got to see the Model 3 prototype, which is why I was a bit disappointed when I saw the Model 3 production version (hood doesn’t look as nice).

 

[Carl Raymond]

Yes - we need to promote BEVs as a solution to the climate change a lot more. Most people who talk about climate change usually mention utilities (and thus solar & wind) but rarely mention cars. When they do, it is mostly to replace them with public transport - which just doesn't work for most of the people in US.

A byproduct of scaling the battery industry to make a 70 kWh pack for $7K should be a 30 kWh powerpac for $3K - cheap enough to make 24hr solar the cheapest power in most places. It’s that ying yang thing that electric cars and renewables have going that detractors never seem to notice.

Buy an EV, change the world. It’s literally true.

 

[PaulusdB]

Is everyone but me seeing an actual picture and not just the

tag?

Yes, I am. But David and myself are using TMC on Apple hardware, IIRC.

 

[KarenRei]

OMG, did anyone else notice this???

Wow!

 

[AlexS]

Is everyone but me seeing an actual picture and not just the

tag?

IMG

 

[JRP3]

OMG, did anyone else notice this???

View attachment 378222

Wow!

IMG

OK now you're just messing with me

 

[SF_EVFAN]

Long on TSLA for the last 3 years and nothing as of now I know or foresee which prompts me to change my opinion. Hopefully, someday my model Y will will be funded by TSLA stock price gains

 

[RobStark]

EU politicians declared before that the €20 bn tariffs they would implement in a first step would likely NOT include US cars at first simply because the volume is too low to create enough pressure with it.

US cars are on a longer list that is considered in phase 2 but that'll just happen if all escalates.

Along with Tesla, the EU could tariff all the VW,MB and BMW SUVs that are exported from the American South to Europe.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Jaguar starts offering 0% financing on I-Pace to boost EV sales

Pretty sure the S/X new pricing is killing demand for the I-Pace. We can complain about how undervalued Tesla is all day but one thing that I'm finding interesting over the past 6 months or so is watching how the competition is fairing as they enter the market. If I were all of the other auto companies, I'd be terrified not just of the Model Y announcement but also what Tesla has in store for the S/X refreshes down the road(mid-to late 2019 or 2020). I'd be especially concerned about luxury brands like Jaguar because when the S/X refresh happens, you figure Tesla is going to work a lot more automation into the manufacturing of the updated versions which means they'll not only likely get more range but also drop a bit more in price range.

 

[Unpilot]

If you feel you can take a whole lot of anti Tesla misinformation this idiot can supply it, in a super annoying manner. 1.8 million subscribers

No thanks.

 

[Joe F]

If you feel you can take a whole lot of anti Tesla misinformation this idiot can supply it, in a super annoying manner. 1.8 million subscribers

Thanks, but no thanks. Super annoying is an understatement. Three minutes, tops and I was out.

 

[RobStark]

OT - Kudos to all BEV manufacturers, OEM or Upstarts, for expanding Market in BEV, and I wish them all the best.

Truck BEVs. Chart from InsideEVs:
Kudos to all the upstarts BEV, more the better. Altis Motors design looks much more aerodynamic and IMHO better appearance inside and out than the Rivian.

According the Chicago Tribune Rivan has raised a total of $1.4B with Amazon being the lead investor the recent $700M round.

Optimism returns to Normal as electric truck startup Rivian gains traction

Atlis is crowdsourcing funds and is offering lotto type games with "prizes" for "investors."

Rivian has at least two prototypes.

Atlis has CGI pictures.

Rivian has factory that produced 240k cars in the past, albeit with minimal tooling as of now.

Atlis has CGI pictures.

Rivian has veterans from all three Detroit automakers, plus McLaren and BMW, including their board of directors.

Atlis has guys from a firm that makes tasers.

BTW R1T is most definitely a sport utility truck not a work truck. A 6.5 or 8" bed can be added later. The R1S is about the same with as a Range Rover with the length in between a Short Wheel Base and Long Wheel base Range Rover but because of the packaging advantages of EV powertrains can sit 7 people comfortably. It is certainly not a Suburban or Excursion in size.

 

[KarenRei]

OT: Some of us already called this, but: SpaceX put out a job ad related to building both Starship and Super Heavy in South Texas (not California). At least for the first flight versions.

SpaceX job posts confirm Starship's Super Heavy booster will be built in Texas

-----
“Tank fabricators will work to build the primary airframe of the Starship and Super Heavy vehicles at the SpaceX South Texas build site. [They] will work with an elite team of other fabricators and technicians to rapidly build the tank (cylindrical structure), tank bulkheads, and other large associated structures for the flight article design of both vehicles.”
-----