BTW., the 2018 10-K has just been filed:
Some details:
The 10-K was signed by Deepak Ahuja, as expected - falsifying the $TSLAQ noise that Deepak was leaving due to disagreements over accounting:
Date: February 19, 2019 /s/ Deepak Ahuja
Deepak Ahuja
Chief Financial Officer
(Principal Financial Officer)
Tesla reaffirms Shanghai Gigafactory production start by the end of 2019:
"we began construction of our Gigafactory Shanghai in China, where we intend to commence production of certain trims of Model 3 for the local market by the end of 2019."
Local debt and limited China capex reaffirmed:
"We expect much of the investment in Gigafactory Shanghai to be provided through local debt financing, supported by limited direct capital expenditures by us. Moreover, we are targeting the capital expenditures per unit of production capacity at this factory to be less than that of our Model 3 production at the Tesla Factory, from which we have drawn learnings that should allow us to simplify our manufacturing layout and processes at Gigafactory Shanghai."
I.e. the $2.5b annual capex guidance for 2019 doesn't include significant China capex.
I don't think I've seen this before, they are working to qualify other cell makers for production vehicles, not just Panasonic:
"In addition, while several sources of the battery cell we have selected for our battery packs are available, we have currently fully qualified only one cell supplier for the battery packs we use in our production vehicles. We are working to fully qualify additional cells from other manufacturers."
Tesla will be using Gigafactory 1 components in China initially:
As we expect to commence our manufacturing activities in China using progressively increased levels of localization through local sourcing and manufacturing, we expect that we will need to initially support manufacturing activities there with production processes at our existing manufacturing facilities, such as Gigafactory 1.
Since Elon said that they are going to do battery pack assembly in China, the two main components made in GF1 are the power train and the cells. Also note that in the 10-K they do not mention battery pack assembly in China anymore:
"Furthermore, in January 2019 we commenced construction of our Gigafactory Shanghai in China. We expect to build a production process that is optimized and simplified for Model 3 production, comprised of stamping, body joining and paint shops and general assembly, at Gigafactory Shanghai to begin production of certain trims of Model 3 for China by the end of 2019."
I.e. I'd expect them to ship fully assembled Standard Range battery packs made by the new Grohmann machine at Gigafactory 1, to Shanghai. This should allow them to ramp up China Model 3 production quickly.
They disclosed 2018 regional revenue in the 10-K, which only shows up in the annual reports:
Code:
The following table presents revenues by geographic area based on the sales
location of our products (in thousands):
Year Ended December 31,
2018 2017 2016
United States $ 14,871,507 $ 6,221,439 $ 4,200,706
China 1,757,147 2,027,062 1,065,255
Netherlands 965,596 330,343 305,184
Norway 812,730 823,081 335,572
Other 3,054,288 2,356,826 1,093,415
Total $ 21,461,268 $ 11,758,751 $ 7,000,132
China sales indeed dropped in 2018 by about $270m, but revenue in all other non-Model-3 regions increased by +$1,322m, which is very healthy overall growth in Model S/X and other product sales. Demand in Non-China areas was more than able to pick up available supply - even if we exclude Model 3 sales in the U.S.
They reaffirm that they will "likely" be making the Model Y at Gigafactory 1:
"Finally, we have announced that we will likely manufacture Model Y at Gigafactory 1."
2019 capex of $2.5b reaffirmed:
"Capital expenditures in 2019 are projected to be approximately $2.5 billion, mostly to support increases in Model 3 production capacity at Gigafactory 1 and the Tesla Factory, the establishment of Model 3 production capacity at Gigafactory Shanghai, and the addition of manufacturing capacity for Model Y, which we intend to produce in volume by the end of 2020, as well as the ongoing expansion of our retail locations, service centers, body shops, Mobile Service fleet, and Supercharger stations."
Note the disclosure that they plan to reach volume production of the Model Y by the "end of 2020" - I don't think it's been stated before.
Opex in 2019 reaffirmed to grow by less than 10% over total 2018 levels:
"Generally, we expect operating expenses as a percentage of revenue to continue to decrease in the future due to increases in expected revenues and as we focus on increasing operational efficiency. In addition, due to our cost management efforts to maximize operational efficiency, we expect operating expenses in 2019 to grow by less than 10% from 2018."
Since revenue is going to increase from $20b to $30b the opex proportion of revenue is going to drop significantly in 2019.
oh and the loyal work force are unhappy it has to be said. 2 down 1 to go? Of course they JAPS don't need the uk "aircraft carrier" any more now they have carte Blanche from the Eu. To be fair they are just looking after their own-- carn't blame ' em.
