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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Please sell them cheap. I am looking for a buying opportunity. (This is not advice)
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Surely everyone had some expectation that the 3 would cannibalise the S & X by some degree
In most consumers minds there is little difference between the 3 and the S - they are both amazing Tesla 5 seater sedans, and now you can actually buy two entry level model 3 vehicles for the same price as a single entry level S.
In most consumers minds there is little difference between the 3 and the S - they are both amazing Tesla 5 seater sedans, and now you can actually buy two entry level model 3 vehicles for the same price as a single entry level S.
Colin Rusch from Oppenheimer doing a good job on CNBC right now talking about the monumental moment the $35k introduction is for Tesla and the car industry.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
There was a report by a pair of Analyst who toured the Fremont factory in August stating Tesla could get to 7 or 8 K /wk Model 3 production with "minimal capital" expense. They're just executing, but there's so much while noise around here that people forget important details.
Full sized pickups typically have more ground clearance than an X. (I wonder if they put the X in high or just left it at standard?)
Tesla 8", F150 9.4".
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I still maintain that the prices of the Model S/X performance shown on the website in foreign markets are a mistake. In the US, Ludicrous is a $15k option. In foreign markets the website still shows the old configurator and doesn't have that option. But the text description of the 'base performance' model lists ludicrous. And I think that;s the mistake right there : what you get for that price is without ludicrous.
Elon said Tesla will probably post a loss on Q1 2019.
Elon Musk says Tesla will probably not be profitable in the first quarter of 2019
Elon Musk says Tesla will probably not be profitable in the first quarter of 2019
Also, in other news: the sun is expected to rise in the east....
(This has been extensively covered for dozens of pages, and isn't much of a revision from their Q4 statement).
A bit old news at this point, (and sorry if this was already explored, I really can't keep up with this thread) but I just finished listening to the Tesla Daily podcast featuring the interview with Jake Fisher from Consumer Reports on the Model 3 reliability score, and found it quite enlightening, so I thought it might be beneficial to some of those who simply don't have the time.
TLR - The average reliability score for the Model 3 is not calculated as an average of the 17 different reliability categories, but rather it shows how this car compares to the reliability of all other 2018 models released by all other manufacturers.
Key takeaways:
The overall feeling I got is that the way the report was received was a shock to them, and they feel they were criticised unfairly. The press did run with the "below average" rating to claim that CR says the car is unreliable, which is not what they claimed, but it still attracted them a lot of hate from Model 3 owners and supporters of the company. They say they're only reporting the numbers they receive, but they will now try to provide more context in their reports and emphasise the individual issues they find rather than just giving an overall nondescript number rating.
- The vast majority of newly-released cars (2018 models) will not experience any major issues, particularly in their first year on the roads, so the comparison becomes much more granular and things like faulty door handles or strange cabin sounds may result in a different classification
- Jake was very careful to specify that a below-average reliability score does not mean the car is unreliable (meaning, it will break down and leave you stranded), but simply that on the scale of all other 2018 models it has on average more issues to be addressed than the median car; he agreed that this was not clear in their report and they will probably make changes in how they report these numbers in the future
- the reliability score is calculated by using different weights for different items, for instance faulty trim is weighed much lower than drivetrain issues; he also mentioned that it showed them that the Model 3 has a lot of what one may call cosmetic issues (trim, misaligned body panels, paint, etc.) compared to the average, in order to get that 2/5 rating
- As they only have data for a relatively short time span on new models, they use the reported issues to extrapolate on what is likely (and how likely it is) to go wrong in the next several years with those cars
- Jake reported that Tesla has been in touch and not only acknowledged the reported issues but, refreshingly, already addressed most of them; CR plans to issue a refreshed report by the end of the year; Jake expects this new report will again add the Model 3 to their "recommended" list, which in turn will attract them a lot of hate mail from the shorts
- Why the average of the 17 individual reliability categories is so different to the overall reliability score: the score for each category is determined by the percentage of reported occurrences of that fault compared to the number of cars for which they get feedback; a 4% fault rate (not sure if that's the actual value they employ) would attract a bad rating, but a 1% wouldn't, the car would get a green circle in that category; however, if most 2018 models only get around 0.2% faults for that issue, the car would stack up poorly in the overall rating; moreover, they only received feedback on about 500 cars, which they admit is a fairly small sample size
- Many of the suggestions the podcast interviewer made on improving the way these numbers are reported made Jake Fisher think and admit they could improve or change how they do things, which tells me that, first, their models are somewhat brittle, and second, CR are really not used to so much granular analysis of their reports and the feedback they got on this particular report was a bit of a shock to them; they agreed to make some serious changes across the board on how they do the numbers
- On the question of why the results of the report were disseminated ahead of time, allowing some parties to effectively trade on insider information, Jake was again surprised by how things played out, saying that they regularly send these reports to news organisations under an embargo to allow them to publish the news at the same time; they will talk to their legal team to see if that needs to change as well in the future.
The podcast is definitely worth a listen if you have the time, it runs at about 42 minutes.
Words matter. Journalists know this and CR needs to be clear on what they mean in the future. There is a big difference between “below average compared to other 2018 models in certain categories” vs “unreliable”.
This feels like we are missing half of the equation. Yesterday was only half of the news.
humbaba
sleeping until $7000
Yowch! I'm not really aware of Tesla pricing history -- I'm pretty late to the game -- but just on the principle of it moves fast I always knew this was a possibility. Due to my familiarity with early computers I liken the situation to that. For a while there what you bought felt outdated in a week and was outdated in six months. But if you held out you were going to keep waiting, waiting, waiting. Because progress wasn't waiting.
For sure! Driving again last night reminded me how glad I am to have my Tesla. Anyone wanting these new prices will have to wait a bit longer to actually drive one. My M3 is my daily driver and family road tripper -- very glad to have it.
HG Wells
Martian Embassy
The price for a M3 LRD in France has come down 5300 EUR. I placed an order in December, but haven't received a final invoice/VIN/delivery date yet. It will be interesting to see the amount on the final invoice.
(Prices include VAT @ 20% and a 6000 EUR Eco bonus)
Order agreement:
Configuration as per today:
(Prices include VAT @ 20% and a 6000 EUR Eco bonus)
Order agreement:
Configuration as per today:
stef
Member
I picked up mine on Wednesday and as much as I love the car is a bit frustrating.
Don’t get me wrong, I know the game and not complaining. Just seems a bit messed up that only 1 week after starting deliveries in Europe the price goes down.
Edit: technically still estimating delivery by end of March (as for all those who just got their car “a bit early”).
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Bob Lutz on CNBC, lol
Short summary: No profit, will have a liquidity problem and Musk won't be able to raise capital because of the SEC, 500k/yr is impossible, Tesla's not innovating anything, people love dealerships, who's going to service the cars?
ED: LOL, they're trying to end the segment and Bob won't shut up
Short summary: No profit, will have a liquidity problem and Musk won't be able to raise capital because of the SEC, 500k/yr is impossible, Tesla's not innovating anything, people love dealerships, who's going to service the cars?
ED: LOL, they're trying to end the segment and Bob won't shut up
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The timing is very frustrating, really sorry to hear. Hope you enjoy your fabulous new car to the fullest, regardless.
I can understand the frustration. However, another way to look at it is that you guys with the first deliveries started ordering 2-2,5 months ago in December and the price reduction is applicable for cars ordered today, in March.
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stef
Member
I will .The timing is very frustrating, really sorry to hear. Hope you enjoy your fabulous new car to the fullest, regardless.
Yeah, looks like they “screwed” the first couple of thousand people ...
I can only imagine what might be going on in a delivery center today....
Uncle Bob (Lutz) is currently on CNBC on TSLA in this moment. And as usual, difficulties, difficult situation, selling $35k Model 3 in a loss, and take it with a grain of salt ....
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