Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Sweft]

$300 is the battleground now...

 

[aznt1217]

Aside from company announcements. This is pretty much how I'm seeing things now on the street:

WS: Tesla is late on the $35K Model 3. Tesla needs it for demand. Worried there is no demand. Needs profit.

Tesla: OK. let's go ahead and release the Model 3. Let's also move to an online Model to recapture some profit for this release.

WS: Tesla releases the $35K Model 3, problems with demand due to exclusivity. Released cheaper car is now desperation for demand. Can't turn a profit due to this. Cuts sales staff out of profit desperation.

Further proof that the vast majority of "Financial Analysts" haven't run a business or understand things fundamentally. Staring at a P&L on an excel spreadsheet means nothing.

 

[EVMeister]

The perpetual SPARTA.

 

[Unpilot]

I think it's interesting to pause and consider a $70k 2013 S60 when new compared to a $37k 2019 SR+. Six years down the road the SR+ is better in almost every way except interior space. That's amazing progress, and exactly what Tesla was founded to accomplish.

Being an early adapter is expensive. If Tesla is successful it means the car you bought is in short order better and cheaper.
But YOUR car get's better as well.

So while some gnash teeth and clutch pearls over "loosing" out on the latest change. I celebrate the mission moving forward AND MY car keeps getting better!

 

[ZsoZso]

Actually [and I'm a Tesla owner and mega-fan], guiding for 350k to 500k production is not the same as "will build 500k". There's a HUGE difference between a range of 350k to 500k and just plain 500k - the range leaves you speculating on production - "will build 500k" does not.

2 problems with your argument:

1. guidance was NOT 350k-500k total cars, it was 350k-500k model 3 PLUS 70k-100k model S/X, so total range 420k-600k

2. he did not say "will build 500k", but "will build around 500k"

Now, if you consider these facts, then you can see that his statement of around 500k is perfectly in line with the 420k-600k range

 

[Artful Dodger]

Looks like $302 is close to the bottom. Remember, Wall Street is stupid. They didn't see Amazon coming either.

They are so deluded by the "Tesla is about to fail" idea that they don't yet understand the moat this will create for Tesla.

they don't want to breach a 10% drop today, triggering the 'uptick' rule restricting shortselling. That'd be around 287.793 today, so they still have lots of room for mischief.

 

[Starno]

TSLA just being TSLA...

 

[anthonyj]

This stock is freaking crazy

 

[Causalien]

You know, I am becoming more and more convinced that the FUD campaign is just going to be an ongoing virus that will refuse to die completely...and to try is just a colossal waste of time and source of frustration. Tesla just needs to keep doing what they're doing. Eventually the facts will just be too hard to ignore and the talking heads just won't have an audience anymore. They are looking more and more foolish with every video they make and every article they write. It is only going to cost them their own credibility in the end.

Dan

Most ppl won't remember who said what. Most investor will be new and have no idea what's going on.

One of the reason why I do well, is because I have memories of the past. Not just the charts, but also the manipulations and news headlines.

Sadly, the one thing the repeats is that these maliscious actors don't get punished.

Also, there's a lot of bystanders who enjoy making fun and picking on those that are sweating and bleeding in the ring. Sure, the ones that fight comes out ahead exp and money wise more often than not. But psychologically, we provided entertainment for these ppl with no skin in the game. They get their rush of superiority. We just get more battle scars.

 

[BoringUsername]

This volume is incredible. 5.5M shares in 30 minutes

 

[Starno]

For the past 2 years

 

[Steve m]

Not that I’m complaining, but Tesla just did that to a lot of current owners. If I try to sell my LR AWD now I will be losing a ton of money....

I don't buy something that I think the price is wrong. Buying any new car is an instant loss of value. That is why i drive mine for ever. I don't have to worry about price changes or new features.

In short if someone buys a new car and sells it within a couple of years... Well my eyes are rolling.

 

[Garlands]

I think it's more of a reaction to the overall price drops and the Q1 profit warning. Again, Tesla is a high-tech company with one of the most complex, most cross-disciplinary business models, and as a result it is one of the least understood stocks even among professional analysts.

The Model 3 is like the Apple iPhone all over again: huge skepticism, constant criticism and an i-Gate every couple of months.

The usual rule applies: if you agree that Tesla is undervalued and if you are comfortable with the price as it is, buy and hold. Expect pain and heartburn if using leverage or options, and expect general investors to only accept Tesla progress once the evidence starts hitting them in the face. Might take years.

But time does offer a cure, eventually: today, 10+ years after the iPhone, AAPL short interest is below 0.85%.

I used to think the comparison between the model 3 and the iphone was a good one, where they would be satisfied with taking the lions share of the profits without huge market share. However, now, with all of the price drops, im thinking they are going for the amazon/Facebook model, they want as much marketshare as possible, at the expense of profits, and afterwards make their money off of Tesla Network/Services.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Maybe I'm naive, but I don't really care about profit. I care about being cash flow positive. There are so many accounting details that can lead to not being profitable that don't really measure the health of a rapidly growing company like Tesla IMHO. I can't remember off the top of my head, but I think AMZN went years w/o a profit and the market didn't seem to mind.

 

[myt-e-s-l-a]

Selling. tsla 190308 280 puts 5x

 

[Todd Burch]

Being an early adapter is expensive.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Then don't sell it...just sayin'. lol

Dan

If you took the time to read the original quote, the person was saying new ICE cars are losing a ton of resale value. Sorry for pointing out that, while I don’t care, Tesla has done the same to it’s early adopters. But you probably just like being a smart ass.

 

[Unpilot]

While you might be right in the sparse semi-rural traffic of Iceland, in urban environments TACC and NoA is a godsend:







For whom TACC and NoA works on the daily commute route it's a game changer.

And that's the smaller neural networks with HW2 and HW2.5 basis. The new first generation Tesla AI chip in HW3 is already 20x faster, allowing the huge 'unified vision' neural networks Andrej Karpathy's team has already trained and qualified but which HW 2.5 can only run at ~1 FPS.

I really mean it: buckle up, you ain't seen nothing yet. If you can buy the FSD option for $3k now then I'd suggest doing it, to guarantee HW3 compatibility. HW2.5 will be in the first round of upgrades, but according to a leak that looks credible I believe Tesla will eventually be able to upgrade HW2 cars too.

My Car is a 2017 with HW 2.5. I emailed Tesla with a question about buying FSD (I did not buy when I bought the car only I bought EAP)
They replied they would honor the 3k price (it was 5K when I emailed them) Can't think of many company's that would do that!
So I think I am going to buy FSD...here is why.

The EAP I have now keeps getting better....yes there are a few cases where it fails...BUT they keep getting fewer and fewer. It used to scare the bajeesus out of people with the way it changed lanes but now .....smooth as butter. I have confidence that the incremental improvements are coming NON-STOP.

Just like the financial "analyst's" can seem to understand Tesla business I think many people can't understand Tesla with respect to FSD.

 

[Causalien]

So, once again Elon gives the press, the analysts, and the overall market exactly what they had wanted/been complaining about - the $35K Model 3. And, he and Tesla once again get hammered for doing what has been asked (CNBC has been ripping this move as, among other things, showing there is no demand). I get that the 1st quarter "warning" is not wonderful to the markets. But, does this really matter? It is a one or two quarter blip that will to likely lead to major long-term gains. One of the many reasons Elon probably hates Tesla being a public company (the market's desire to focus on quarter-to-quarter minutia rather than the long-term big picture).

Build a product. Cost down. It's been the tech way.

This should be the end of model3 story and we can move on to the next product.

 

[elasalle]

Added Jan 21s Calls ..