Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
That would risk an Osborn Effect end of Q1. What was the historic pattern of big refreshes?
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
-
- Tags
- elon is an ass
That would risk an Osborn Effect end of Q1. What was the historic pattern of big refreshes?
Truer words have never been spoken. A guy can hope, though.
Anyone with closer knowledge of Tesla's sales operations, please speak up, but this is my best guess currently:
I think the 140 stores comment is just referring to pure sales locations. Tesla has c.300 stores & galleries in total, but some of them are combined with service centres.
In each store i would guess there are 7-10 advisors and 8-12 customer experience staff. So that is maybe 2500 advisors and 3000 customer experience staff globally.
For advisors hourly pay is c.$21 and commission is $100 per car (if they hit monthly target), i think with some extra for performance cars or immediate delivery etc. Commission can be from sales finished online as long as a sales staff tags themselves to a customer. I don't think customer experience staff get bonus, so maybe their hourly pay is a bit higher.
After adding 50% for taxes, health plan etc, that could be c.$200m advisor pay, c.$50-100m advisor bonus, c.$250m experience specialist pay. Managers then likely make more, and there will be some other admin staff and cost per store. Lets say another $100m. Rent may be another $100-150m (total Tesla rents are c.$200m and operating leases c.$275m).
So all together i'd guess the current sales infrastructure might be $700-800m annual SG&A costs. Not all of this will be cut; some high traffic galleries and experience staff will remain etc, and some costs will just be reallocated to scaled up service operations. But It is important to note, these are all costs as of end 2018, Tesla was planning to increase opex 10% in 2019, and under the previous business plan, this likely included a significant expansion of the store network in Europe and China as they began to scale up model 3 deliveries.
Overall, I think Tesla is likely cutting c.$750m SG&A sales costs vs its previous 2019 business plan. This is c.$1.5k per car at 500k volume. This aligns with the c.$3k price cut for each model 3 model - the remaining $1.5k saving comes because the sales savings take Tesla over a critical cost threshold to be able to release the base model 3 - this allows them to scale demand and production up to 7/8k per week and consequently reduce staff and depreciation costs per car.
I fully expect an exact parallel. They share common hardware and will share configs, with the Y versions being ~10% more expensive. Just like S and X, except 3 and Y are even more structurally similar.
MartinAustin
Active Member
Thursday is great... one day for the media to show all the footage and into the weekend we go.
10% bigger than the Model 3? Definitely a 3-row CUV. (3rd row probably an option)
10% bigger than the Model 3? Definitely a 3-row CUV. (3rd row probably an option)
JustAaronnoraA
Member
mblakele
FSD Beta (99)
Correction: another bwoken pwomise by bankwupt Ewon....
I don't think it's a big risk because the new refresh would be back to the old higher prices.
how about holographic elon musk projected next to teslas when someone approaches them in sentry mode? Holograph elon could be programmed to face his audience and introduce the car to people, while also protecting Summer.
MartinAustin
Active Member
Actually I think that is the first time he has talked about pickup Truck reveal "in the definitive." Prior to this, it has been "in the hypothetical." ("if we were to do it... it would be totally unique" etc. etc.)
Now he is saying the pickup reveal is in 2019.
Considering M Y shares 75% components with M3, and very likely even higher if counting in terms of value. Most of the cost reductions needed should have already been done.
They would be able to profitability roll out SR M Y in a month or two into volume production, but I would rather for them not to make any promises and keep making higher trims for as long as they could.
Yeah it's hard to know what is going with the S/X right now given the price reductions over the past 2 months. By lowering the price ranges for a month or so now, I feel they've given people long enough to take advantage and not be upset when a refresh with a lager battery pack option is announced at a higher price.
I mean how can you complain that you missed out on the updated S/X when you got Performance versions of those for significantly cheaper than they were 2 months ago.
anthonyj
Stonks
The pickup isn’t aiming to directly compete with Rivian. It’s going to be a crazy truck. He did say they are planning a more conventional pickup truck for further in the future
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
There's also a non-trivial Autopilot and FSD income at 100% margins: according to surveys EAP take rate for Model S/3/X was north of 80% end of 2018.
This means that probably a significant percentage of "base model" sales also include a $5k AP sale - which immediately catapults the unit into the "highly profitable" group of cars.
I.e. introduction of the $35k car probably generated a lot of $40k sales with 20%+ margins.
What are the specs on V3?Location of the first V3 Supercharger: California maybe, planet Earth definitely?
(Although with Elon you never know.)
Yup before he was talking about maybe the pickup truck reveal this summer. Now we just got confirmation that Tesla is ready to reveal it later this year. This is just as exciting as the announcement of Model Y reveal lol. This is huge, 2 huge reveals this year.
Antares Nebula
Active Member
People, I was gonna get some work done today. I can't handle being a Tesla investor anymore!
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked
