Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[replicant]

And seriously, what's wrong with you, Google algo?

Their business model.

Selling people's attention to the highest bidder is wreaking havoc in this world. They know it but it pays so… ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

[RobStark]

Tesla launches Model 3 in Mexico as global rollout steamrolls ahead

One Mexican reservation holder I talked to thinks there are ~3k Model 3 reservations in Mexico.

 

[Fact Checking]

however, if that's a timetable for repayment, it implies that GF3 will be making cars and profits sufficient to repay a $500m loan within a year

No. That's a pipe dream.

I agree with your other points but not with this one: Fremont WAS generating 20-30% cash on revenue within about 12 months of starting their ramp-up - and that was a ramp-up hell they are not going to repeat in China if what they do is mostly to duplicate existing lines in Fremont with small improvements and less factory space constraints.

I.e. let's assume that GF3 is only making Standard Range Model 3's and is selling them for $35,000 average ASP (lower prices in China), but can maintain 20% margin due to lower production costs.

At a 3,000/week rate that would be 3,000*0.20*$35,000 = ~$21m/week of income generated by GF3 (after GAAP depreciation and other non-cash costs), which will generate $500m of income in about 23 weeks or about 6 months.

Let's almost double that out of caution - they'd STILL generate enough income to pay for the GF3 factory loan ...

Now I agree that Tesla would very likely seek to refinance these China loans, basically due to the simple fact that LIBOR+1.0% (USD) and 90% of central bank interest rate (RMB) non-recourse, asset-backed but isolated from existing shareholder assets is a dream deal: even if Tesla didn't need the money they could draw on those lines of credit and lend it out for a better interest rate themselves and pocket the spread.

China really wants to accelerate the EV revolution, and Elon is happy to help out.

 

[Compton]

Has this been posted yet?

SR delivery estimates went up to 6-8 weeks in the US.

Could be that they are only dedicating a certain percentage of production to this, but one would think if demand fall through the floor they`d rather manufacture this than *sugar* down the lines. So this continues to suggest production is moving along at full capacity.

I keep wondering if SR+ is a different pack size, or just a different engine firmware, or if rather SR is really SR+, except range and performance limited via SW. I am leaning towards the latter.

PS: delivery dates for everything else remain unchanged. SR+ is 2-4 weeks, the rest is 2 weeks.

If you look at the "Any US model 3 performance deliveries in 2019?" thread in the "Model 3 ordering, production, delivery" subforum, it seems that the 2 week delivery estimation is completely unrealistic in most cases. There are several people in the thread who report that they still see a february delivery estimate for their M3P or have been looking at a 2 week delivery estimate for a month or two. Why Tesla doesn't give more realistic delivery estimates is beyond me - and gives unnecessary fodder for the bears.

For what it's worth, here in Finland all model S/X delivery estimates have recently slipped from April to May. Transportation from USA to Europe takes time but it seems that there isn't much inventory in Europe. I'm torn between leasing a (potentially cheaper) model S now or waiting for the (probably more expensive) interior refresh.

 

[Fact Checking]

Why Tesla doesn't give more realistic delivery estimates is beyond me - and gives unnecessary fodder for the bears.

Growing pains. Elon's focus is service now, and there's already been big improvements in service communications this year already.

Now that Tesla is an online-only store there will be renewed focus on making it work better.

 

[Sunlight]

As a long time Tesla follower and small time (long term) investor, I am, for the first time really, flummoxed by the current state of affairs - "Seizing defeat from the jaws of victory"...…

Here we have international exporting of the M3 en masse; the upgraded and impressive Supercharger roll-out; the imminent unveiling of the Model Y; routine high levels of M3 production; price reductions on the X and S; high consumer satisfaction and great reviews and so on and so forth.

But the share price languishes instead of soaring. And all because Tesla/Elon handled the current set of 'negative' news so badly - talk about feeding the bears and shorts! Announcing all the negative stuff in an unapologetic pot-pouri avalanche of announcements just seems to me utterly daft and counter-productive. Maybe they were deliberately going for the 'big Bang' principle - one hit and clean up the *sugar* later (or wait for it to subside - there seems to have been no attempt to ameliorate the impact)

I can't believe that Tesla is so stupid so it must have been deliberate - why? To let the share price drop at this point to shake out the weak longs/terrified retail investors? Dunno - it just doesn't make sense.

Sadly it is giving fresh sustenance to the trolls; bears; negative journos etc who are now hammering away. Most of their old FUD has been debunked or has evaporated but now they have a new slant.

Tesla is in turmoil and doesn't care about its employees; Tesla is now financially desperate; Tesla will be sunk by their self-fulfilling encouragement of the falling demand.

Last thought - when the history of (successful) Tesla is written there will be lot of names of idiots who called it wrong (or who tried to deliberately sink Tesla) who will get named (and shamed) and live on in print in perpetuity as complete evil dickheads.

 

[Tslynk67]

It would be unusual to pull into a Supercharger after less than two hours driving, no?

Try driving a an XP100D on the autobahn at 160-220 kmph and see how your consumption works out...

Hint, it's around 375W/km, roughly 550W/m

Of course you go quite some distance very quickly too, your battery is low state of charge, so you get a good rate and you're off again.

When I drive to Denmark from Belgium, through Germany, I essentially stop at every SuC en-route.

Edit: of course the battery is a hot as a feck, maybe too warm in fact...

 

[Tslynk67]

I have been lobbying for speed sensitive horse hoof clip-clop noises for years!

Or coconut shells...?

 

[Tslynk67]

I purposely pick hotels with destination chargers. I’m surprised all hotels haven’t caught on yet.

tesla.com is my search site for hotels, simple as that.

 

[SebastianR]

Given how the European incumbents are hyping 350 kW charging in their FUD? I think they know exactly what Tesla just did to them.

Well, I think they get it and they don’t. I don't think people get HOW important the Supercharger network is: 250kW or 350kW - the most important point about Superchargers is ubiquity, reliability and convenience: Yes, they need to charge fast a 110V socket is not going to cut it. But the user experience is what really drives the value. Think back to the beginning of the iPod when it was compared to other MP3 players: others had "better" specs on paper and yet the iPod won since the user experience was just superb:

Go down memory lane here: iPod vs. Rio Riot: The winner is clear | IGM - the Rio had more memory, broader connectivity yet a sucky interface and no good software.

Consider an Ionity & eTron: in principle a match made in heaven. But then you realize that the Ionity stations are nowhere as widely spread, they don't reliably work with all cars at all times, they advertise 350kW but have the wrong cables and can't deliver the power etc. etc.

So my take is: if you need to go beyond the daily range of your car, you will need a Tesla today. All other solutions just won't work well enough (unless you are a EV-geek - but that's not crossing the chasm)

These Europe numbers are crazy small for car purchases. 2k cars in a month? That is nothing. Seems like we need to get China giga going asap. Like can Europe even support 10k cars per month?

Aeh - you do know that Norway only has 5 Million inhabitants? That's about half of the NYC metro area... Just give Europe a moment to ramp: I do think we will see a huge growth in Europe this year. One of the most reliable indicators for that is, that even the shitty EVs for the legacy car makers have +1 year wait lists right now. Once the Model 3 becomes available in the non-AWD and possibly MR versions, this will truly explode.

 

[Buckminster]

TSLA suppressed by Transport sector macro. Transport sector suppressed by Tesla.

 

[Etna]

Could it be the showroom connected to the service centre is closing but not the service centre? Toronto-Lawrence has the showroom up front and service out back.

Same configuration in Quebec City, you must be right.

 

[Fact Checking]

But the share price languishes instead of soaring.

The recent share price drop was at least in part accomplished via an unsustainable bear raid and increased shorting:

There was no way for Elon to announce the (clearly long planned) changes for them to be presented fairly and not spun negatively.

My not advice: patience, it will self-correct and will probably do so via a sudden phase change when we least expect it. Whether it's going to happen in one week, one month or one year - no idea.

Both Apple and Amazon were facing stiff opposition as well - and that self-corrected too, rather spectacularly.

 

[NicoV]

tesla.com is my search site for hotels, simple as that.

I do that too. That has worked out well so far.

 

[mutle]

Went and picked up my Model 3 Performance today. Went quick, no issues with the car and the acceleration is unbelievable. Only took 2 years, 11 months and 1 week of waiting.

 

[AndyH]

But the share price languishes instead of soaring. And all because Tesla/Elon handled the current set of 'negative' news so badly - talk about feeding the bears and shorts! Announcing all the negative stuff in an unapologetic pot-pouri avalanche of announcements just seems to me utterly daft and counter-productive. Maybe they were deliberately going for the 'big Bang' principle - one hit and clean up the *sugar* later (or wait for it to subside - there seems to have been no attempt to ameliorate the impact)

I can't believe that Tesla is so stupid so it must have been deliberate - why? To let the share price drop at this point to shake out the weak longs/terrified retail investors? Dunno - it just doesn't make sense.

Barring the shorts, the stock is in a lull right now because lots of investors are unsure about delivery numbers, demand and margins after introduction of new delivery destinations, new cheaper variants and price cuts. That's fair. In a couple of months we'll know for sure.

I have invested in some other high growth companies besides Tesla. Those companies all have the standard chiseled in stone alpha male CEOs that never says anything wrong and are always on point getting the message out. But I'm not sure that any of those CEOs would have faired better than Elon. Tesla is such a mayor disruption, it would have been attacked from all sides nonetheless.

 

[Fact Checking]

I have invested in some other high growth companies besides Tesla. Those companies all have the standard chiseled in stone alpha male CEOs that never says anything wrong and are always on point getting the message out. But I'm not sure that any of those CEOs would have faired better than Elon. Tesla is such a mayor disruption, it would have been attacked from all sides nonetheless.

That's a great point, in fact Tesla is so easy and refreshing to analyze and understand IMHO (in relation to the complexity of Tesla's business model) because Elon is such an open book most of the time. With the chiseled stone alpha male CEOs you never know whether things are going well or not.

But ... many investors do treat management as a popularity context, and the quarterback lookalikes fare better in winning investors - for a time at least.

 

[Pezpunk]

Barring the shorts, the stock is in a lull right now because lots of investors are unsure about delivery numbers, demand and margins after introduction of new delivery destinations, new cheaper variants and price cuts. That's fair. In a couple of months we'll know for sure.

that makes zero sense.

1) the cheaper variants were planned from DAY 1. In fact, they're kind of LATE. So how is it somehow bad or unexpected? This was always the plan!

2) the price cuts on the existing fleet are obviously because a refresh is imminent and they need to get rid of stock and lower the price of the existing configs to make room for the new configs at the top of the price range.

feeling skittish because of store closings ... that i get. but the other stuff is 1000000% nonsense.

 

[cricketman]

The stock is in a lull because of doubts around demand and margins among non-believers (i.e. the majority of investors). This will last a maximum of 6 months, once those doubts are dispelled then the passive investment funds can get on board and the stock can go nuclear.

In some ways I understand it because Elon said we would be profitable for all quarters going forward, and then a month later Q1 was "probably going to be a small loss". Still, no big deal, patience is needed!

I do find it interesting how Elon is playing around with human resource of unskilled and semi-skilled workers. Some may say it is not entirely ethical, but Tesla hires thousands of manual workers when needed (paint shop, assembly, sales) as intermediary steps when automation is not quite ready. This is very interesting and as Tesla is way ahead of pretty much all other companies, that is something to worry about as a society I think. Given Tesla's goals, Elon is correct to do this, actually the US is one of the few countries when you can even think of doing this. Pretty impossible in trade union heavy Europe, hence why it also more difficult to innovate in Europe, you can't fire anyone when changing strategy!

 

[Sean Wagner]

Go down memory lane here: iPod vs. Rio Riot: The winner is clear | IGM - the Rio had more memory, broader connectivity yet a sucky interface and no good software.

www.sonicblue.com’s server IP address could not be found.

Great analogy. Also:

Aeh - you do know that Norway only has 5 Million inhabitants? That's about half of the NYC metro area... Just give Europe a moment to ramp: I do think we will see a huge growth in Europe this year. One of the most reliable indicators for that is, that even the shitty EVs for the legacy car makers have +1 year wait lists right now. Once the Model 3 becomes available in the non-AWD and possibly MR versions, this will truly explode.

Also, I think that if Volkswagen doesn't drop the ball several times, kicks it onto a factory roof, and then proceeds to lose it in a flood of Teslas, the ID line of vehicles including the appealing Seat and Skoda incarnations should sell well. Even though the seats are too close to the floor, and despite the battery not extending beyond the driver's derriere.

It takes a leap of faith to re-direct some of the company's enormous resources towards true mass production, and there are more than careers on the line, but just maybe enough people are beginning to understand where that ball's target is moving to.

Then again, you have BMW planning to build 5'000 MINI EVs per annum at elevated prices. It could be the perfect metro runabout with some panache. Small wonder Porsche isn't proposing bespoke versions of the Taycan with individually hand-sewn Alcantara battery cells.

While in two to three years' time, the US pickup market will be up for grabs.

All accompanied by the slow, small, but steady accumulation of battery cell and pack improvements.

Or the big, somewhat erratic, but inescapable Chinese quotas and EU regulations that the German government now has a very hard time bending to the industry's liking - which is the real reason for the sales slump at the end of last year: no more softening or rescheduling of emissions changes "on demand".

EDIT: I'm thrilled at least one government still is doing everything to counter the advent of cleaner mobility and power generation. Unlimited opiates and coal for the win.