I think (hope) that we will rally thru model Y announcement. Only other issue that seems pesky/slow it down is the SEC filings this week. Be nice if Musk just had his tweets reviewed. Or just gave up his Twitter account to a PR underling to manage.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Sudre
Active Member
I see the clarification now. Too many articles misquoting things. You appear to be right that all stores will close and only a few galleries will remain open. I just now decided to read the Tesla blog myself. I should have gone to the hoarse's mouth to begin with.
"Over the next few months, we will be winding down many of our stores, with a small number of stores in high-traffic locations remaining as galleries,"
$35,000 Tesla Model 3 Available Now
Felt different to me as well. But I believe releasing the $35k Model was the right move. It looks like demand is there at $35k and they’ll make good margin on it before the year is out at the latest.
The fud/optimism percentage on this thread seems higher this weekend. It does not make sense to me. In my experience, this is usually a signal for buying opportunities on the near horizon (and there have been many these last few years). I am hoping to take advantage of this if that is the case...
OT
The Model X prototype at the Hawthorne Design Studio (as well as some pictures) that I saw years ago did not have side mirrors. The picture of the Y without side mirrors appeared to be a similar non-issue to me.
OT
The Model X prototype at the Hawthorne Design Studio (as well as some pictures) that I saw years ago did not have side mirrors. The picture of the Y without side mirrors appeared to be a similar non-issue to me.
Weekend OT:
Edit; Dang, Artful Dodger beat me to it by 3 minutes!
Jack is back; Jack Rickards' newest video. Yes, as per usual, 1 1/2 hours, but at 1.5 speed it's tolerable if you can get through the technical minutiae (I've tried, to no avail). There are some real gems of wisdom woven in, regarding the world of Tesla;
1:25 "Getting in the electric car market, and going against Elon Musk... everybody's talking a lot of $hit... it's not as easy as he makes it look.)) I also spent the morning watching him dock the Dragon to the International Space Station... go ahead, go short, bet against the guy that can land rockets vertically on ships... this guy had no experience in rocketry, and was going up against Boeing, Lockheed Martin, and people that had been doing it for decades, and he has kicked their a$$..."
"Audi, and Porsche, and all of them are going to heroically struggle to try to catch up to Tesla, while guarding their internal combustion engine sales. This is like pressing on the accelerator and brake at the same time. They're just hosed. If you get a chance, ever, don't be them.
Jack said it perfectly. I can't think of a way how Boeing and Lockheed Martin can compete with SpaceX. I also can't think of a way how car companies (both old and new) can compete with Tesla.
Singer3000
Member
We’re 10 weeks into 2019. Tesla ended 2018 selling more cars than it ever has and at good enough margins to make a decent profit, even with the tariff winds blowing. This was also without any deliveries of Model 3 outside of North America (i.e. deliveries only opened to 2 countries!).
Closing stores helps with net margins but does nothing to gross margins. Only six weeks ago on the investor call, we had the re-confirmation of the long forecast 25% Model 3 blended gross margins for 2019 and $42k ASP. This guidance is inconsistent with the messaging in the letter to Tesla staff that the store closures were needed to phase in SR and reminds me a little of the Q3 email: work super hard this weekend people and maybe we can make a small profit.
While Tesla has always hit its gross margins guidance and in recent quarters has showed impressive operating leverage, it is still some way short of net margins in the “high single digits”, which has been the long term aspiration since before the launch of Model 3. Perhaps they now have the data to be comfortable making the decision on stores in pursuit of industry leading net margins?
I think it’s a bit early to say that there is suddenly a demand problem or indeed a margins one. Let’s see the official Q1 delivery numbers before jumping to conclusions based on analyst/media hearsay and / or second guesses of management’s recent actions on costs/pricing.
Carl Raymond
Active Member
Good to hear the D word (disruption). The media and the stock market appear to be experiencing disruption denial - as though they can’t wrap their heads around the implications of 2x speed supercharging and a $35K base price.
Disruption is here, it’s happening. The best car on the market for $35K is electric. Best by a country mile.
Any publication not telling this story and shying from the D word is fish wrap.
The media have done its best to destroy the Tesla brand. Demand currently might be underwhelming due to all the work they have done. Besides the fans and diehard who can see through the FUD, the common folks just tells me how the car catches on fire, autopilot kills people, Elon is crazy, and the company is near bankruptcy. I don't fault common folks who doesn't do deep dives into FUD to hold off on purchasing a car from a company with such reputation.
As more people drive the car and regular people asks more about the car, the demand and confidence in the company will come back. Young children, teens, and young adults all love Tesla, Space-X, and how important Elon is to the world. Their eyes light up when they see a Tesla and know that this is the future that is built for them, that Elon cares about inspiring them and trying his damn best to make their world habitable with sustainable power. It's a damn shame what the U.S have done to Tesla all for a quick buck. The fact that Elon still cares to carry on makes him a stronger person that I'll ever be.
Tesla has an incentive to show overly optimistic delivery times to encourage orders so I don’t think we can judge actual backlog until we see real delivery times from people taking delivery.
Well that's kinda my point...if Tesla is incentivized to show deliveries and it only shows 6 to 8 weeks....that is not good.
I
Haha I wanted like 200k order in 24 hrs...half of what we got when it was first announced. At this point I'd settle to know there are 100k orders of the SR and SR +. Really any info on demand. When they got that first 400k, they announced it right away. Hopefully we get news like that with model Y.
Personally, I'm opening up an account to go long. I prefer the Model 3 to the S/X and the fact you can grab one for $35k before incentives is mind boggling. We have an M3 LR AWD and the ONLY car I'd trade it for under $200k is a performance version of the M3. [I've driven hundreds of cars as an auto journalist.] We've seen the big old legacy automakers having serious issues meeting the same efficiency. A Tesla isn't just an electric car, it's a different thing. The general populous will realize this soon. If you have a garage and don't have a four hour commute, it would be nuts to purchase any other car on the market save for specialty vehicles, for now.
Parts and service seems to be a concern. I think Tesla needs to address that as first priority. I know im hesitant to buy a 3 due to concerns of never being able to get service.
skitown
Member
Don’t follow this logic. They show the longest lead times for presumably the lowest margin Model 3. (Standard Range 6-8 weeks). SR+ Is 2-4 weeks. And all the higher end variants are 2 weeks. This makes sense to me and tells me they are pushing the higher margin variants harder first, as they should be incentivized to do.
They’re saying the opposite. It’s in Tesla’s best interest to make people think they’re getting their cars sooner, not that they’ll have to wait forever for them.
Come-on, how can you not understand the logic. Originally they had 400k orders...if even 200k orders were still "active " at around a 5k a week production rate...what delivery time should Tesla's website show? 6 to 8 weeks would only be about 40k orders so it should be 5x that for a wait time.
New cars sales expected to stall, dinging the Detroit 3
New vehicles are piling up on U.S. car dealer lots, creating concern just as sales are expected to sputter.
The inventory of unsold new cars on dealer lots rose 2.1 percent last month, setting an all-time February high, a top industry analyst said in a research note this week. That total of 4 million new vehicles in U.S. stock is a 21-month high, Morgan Stanley's equity analyst Adam Jonas wrote. In dollar terms, it's about $140 billion in inventory, Jonas wrote.
New vehicles are piling up on U.S. car dealer lots, creating concern just as sales are expected to sputter.
The inventory of unsold new cars on dealer lots rose 2.1 percent last month, setting an all-time February high, a top industry analyst said in a research note this week. That total of 4 million new vehicles in U.S. stock is a 21-month high, Morgan Stanley's equity analyst Adam Jonas wrote. In dollar terms, it's about $140 billion in inventory, Jonas wrote.
For my Tesla stock shares and call options sake, I absolutely hope you are correct.
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