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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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BMW 3/4 Series also not looking so great: 2018 was worst year in 20 years of sales and 2019 looks like it will be worse:

BMW 3-series & 4-series US car sales figures

Mercedes C-Klass is doing not so well either (only worst year in the past 8 years) but still:

Mercedes-Benz C-Class US car sales figures

(2019 might be like last year?)

Audi A4/S4 looking okish for 2018 (as good/bad as 2017 and 2016) but 2019 looks bad (brutal):

Audi A4 / S4 US car sales figures

So how many more indications of legacy folks struggling really bad do we need to see some movement in TSLA? I mean folks will scream - "yea the 3 Series - that's just a sedan, BMW is doing CUVs now!" - and then as of Thursday? They will probably not that the Model Y is not delivered yet. And then? When folks stop ordering the ICE SUV/CUVs since they are waiting for the Model Y - what will the story be then?
I think Audi in particular really made an own goal with their Superbowl ad. Now their brand-loyal customers know they should wait for e-tron (and then be sorely disappointed) rather than buy another gas car now. Since the world economy hasn't really sunk yet, the giant drop in ICE purchases is best explained by people waiting for the more modern cars to come. The traditional OEMs have admitted that electric is coming so most people are deferring purchases until they do. Tesla is the only real option right now, and is the prime mover that forced the OEMs to admit that electric vehicles are legitimate.
 
Uh oh... and now you believe the reports they aren't selling every car they can make, and have them secretly stockpiled somewhere or are dumping them in the ocean...

Not looking good for Gringotuanis Incorporated...
So that's the ghost you guys are arguing with. Even with a healthy use of ignore this forum is hard to keep up with.
 
There's only two things that I want to hear in the Model Y reveal:
  • Deliveries will be starting in either Q4 '19 or Q1 '20, with full production by ~Q4 '21.
  • Any evidence that tooling progress is in a much more advanced stage than the market believes.
It seems that the main market expectation is that Model Y will be a year later than that, and this would be a huge beat. If the unveiling includes the above, I'll be grinning ear to ear. Regardless of whether there's a "just one more thing" or not. Which there very well might not be (there isn't always).
 
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I'm still not getting it. Is it that the crossover has a smaller third-row window, less cargo space, and less practicality? :looks puzzled:

Estate cars are generally just sedans with the rear adapted. Cross-overs are like mini SUV's, they're not as long as estates and tend to be higher, higher seating position too. They give the "impression" of off-road capability, but they have none.
 
In Norway, Model 3 March deliveries today (the 13th) are probably going to exceed the highest deliveries for any Tesla model in any entire month ever. Only 20 cars behind the Model X in December '17 right now.

We're probably 6 days or so from it being the highest month, all vehicles combined, ever in Norway.

Also: the rate of deliveries is accelerating.
 
Has anybody heard anybody claim to have an Alpha Hat subscription for Tesla data? Given they provide weekly delivery estimates with just one week lag, this is surely a large information advantage as an investor or an analyst.

One interesting point, Alpha Hat released their 11.5k January US deliveries estimate on 20th February. They also made their 30k+ Q1 US deliveries estimate on this date (not 100% clear if this is 3,S & X or just 3). While Alpha Hat only publicly disclosed January estimates, internally they would have had estimates for at least the first 2 weeks of Feb, and possibly the first 3 weeks when making their forecast.
 
Fresh in, just before market open:

Goldman Sachs analyst David Tamberrino reiterates a Sell rating and $210.00 price target on Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA).
  • Believes the new information points to declines in demand for the company's high priced vehicle variants.
  • Unveiling of Model Y may drive incremental reservations and help cash balances due to deposit collection.
  • Expects intro of $35K variant to weight on overall automotive GMs which should be sown about 2% in 2019.
  • International deliveries are not professing without some delays and there may be meaning working capital headwinds in Q1 2019.
Notes:
  • "New information" might be a calendar showing that we are in the first quarter of the year, when sales are softer seasonally, every single year since cars have been sold?
  • 2% automotive margins ... I think he typo-ed that number and left off a zero? This must really mess with his model, and not in a good way.
  • International delays: such as 10k 'in-transit' vehicles ... like Tesla guided and like absolutely everyone is expecting?
  • $210 price target: now I see why he had to assume 2% automotive margins!
I think I know what happened, David Tamberrino has read Adam Jones's downgrade yesterday, and said "hold my beer!". :D

Stock price reaction: TSLA sharply up. Are financial markets rational after all, or did a trader enter a fat finger trade as he was laughing about Tamberrino's report?
 
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Yes, and this would also explain the sporadic deliveries in Benelux that @schonelucht reported: since there's only very few configurations offered, and a lot of software features which can be freely turned on/off, so Tesla can freely "swap" a Benelux delivery for a far-away delivery in Spain or France.

So when a customer confirms to take delivery in Southern France or Italy and there's two such cars that only differ in software features but otherwise have the exact same hardware configuration, they might bump a Benelux delivery down the queue and serve the farther away customer first. Note that the Benelux delivery is still guaranteed to happen, but a few weeks later.

This would explain the prohibition to talk VINs and ships (as you are not guaranteed them until the last minute), but I suspect not all sales staff understands that, plus:

  • there might be cars that are unique hardware at this stage (some rare color and Performance)
  • or very common configurations and free delivery capacity in Benelux and not enough orders far away to serve,
  • or customers indicating schedule inflexibility, i.e. vacation in the last 2 weeks of March. Tesla would still prefer to deliver the car early than after March 31.
... and in these cases the car might be delivered in Benelux earlier already.

From the outside it would look chaotic, random, with unreliable communications - and this sucks for Benelux customers waiting for delivery - but I'd expect this to be smoothed out once Tesla can expend the capital to maintain a continuous logistics pipeline.

Pro tip: if you want the quickest Model 3 delivery then order the Performance model, 20" wheels, Pearl White color and white seats. Also indicate schedule inflexibility for the final 2 weeks of the quarter, but don't push your luck too much.

Or wait 2-3 more weeks for your dream configuration! :D

This makes total sense and mirrors the delivery pattern in the US.

However, my location is one of the furthest from Zeebrugge (South of France), and since Tesla owners apparently have priority, I thought my car (a fairly standard M3LR/Dual Motor/midnight grey/black interior/19"wheels) would have been delivered by now. I take this as a positive sign... Tesla seems to have a good backlog of waiting customers, which isn't limited to those close to Zeebrugge.
 
However, my location is one of the furthest from Zeebrugge (South of France), and since Tesla owners apparently have priority, I thought my car (a fairly standard M3LR/Dual Motor/midnight grey/black interior/19"wheels) would have been delivered by now. I take this as a positive sign... Tesla seems to have a good backlog of waiting customers, which isn't limited to those close to Zeebrugge.

A less generous reading of your experience would be that the confusion and disorganization @schonelucht reported isn't a smart end of quarter delivery strategy and isn't limited to the Benelux delivery centers. :D