Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[RobStark]

Chickens designed eggs for minimum resistance.

Hens are excellent aerodynamicist.

 

[RobStark]

EV Sales: Germany February 2019

Model 3 first place in February.

 

[Ocelot]

Putting aside I really dislike the design. I have to ask “y”?

The mission is to electrify the worldwide fleet. Why not pick the most popular CUV/SUV style/shape to sell to the masses that already has proven curb appeal?

Eg...Mazda cx9 or cx5...Volvo Xc90/60, BMW X3/5, Mercedes....Honda..Toyota...ford etc. People like em. They sell. Take the body style..,and put an electric motor in it. Yes it will have a bit less range...but also on the flip side more utility ( sloped roof anyone?).

I really do feels the answers will comes in fits of cohesive design language, but underneath it all i do question wether any designer given a blank slate like Franz had, could set aside their ego and follow in someone else’s footsteps, rather than create their own jellybean like mold.

 

[Pezpunk]

Putting aside I really dislike the design. I have to ask “y”?

The mission is to electrify the worldwide fleet. Why not pick the most popular CUV/SUV style/shape to sell to the masses that already has proven curb appeal?

Eg...Mazda cx9 or cx5...Volvo Xc90/60, BMW X3/5, Mercedes....Honda..Toyota...ford etc. People like em. They sell. Take the body style..,and put an electric motor in it. Yes it will have a bit less range...but also on the flip side more utility ( sloped roof anyone?).

I really do feels the answers will comes in fits of cohesive design language, but underneath it all i do question wether any designer given a blank slate like Franz had, could set aside their ego and follow in someone else’s footsteps, rather than create their own jellybean like mold.

because they wanted the base model's range to be 230 miles, not 195 miles.

 

[Ocelot]

Oh I get it...and we will see if 6 footers can sit in the second row. It’s a seriously sloped roofline.

Do you drive over 195 miles per day?

 

[Gavyne]

Oh I get it...and we will see if 6 footers can sit in the second row. It’s a seriously sloped roofline.

Do you drive over 195 miles per day?

People who buy internal combustion engine cars do, or they think they do. Range is still a top reason why gasoline drivers haven't switched. It's a top excuse they use as they want the gasoline car for the few long range vacation trips they take a year. If we can convert these folks, then Tesla can say mission accomplished.

Model Y will sell like hotcakes. It's a Model 3 with a hatchback, slightly raised, with optional 3rd row seats for families with kids. It's exactly what many wanted. Model 3 is a top selling EV that is rivaling Toyotas and Hondas. Tesla would be dumb to change too much of a good thing. They know people want and love the Model 3. So for Model Y the design decision was simple.

Teslas are always designed with safety first, aerodynamics second. This is why to this day, we still have yet to see other EV's matching Tesla's range. This is why even in 2020 and 2021 when legacy automakers are coming out with their EV's, we still won't see other EV's matching Tesla's range. And this is a big reason why Teslas sell so well. Range is king when it comes to EV's whether you use the range daily or not. If we are to convert more ICE car drivers to EV's, we must continue to improve on the range of EV's.

For people who drive a Jaguar I-PACE, while the car is beautiful, they'll be lucky to get 200 miles out of a full charge in real world driving. It's terribly inefficient. The same issues will be there for Mercedes EQC. So for families that do take long trips a few times a year, which do you think they'll gravitate towards? An I-PACE? Or a Model Y that goes 100 miles further, cheaper, has better tech, and has better charging network support?

 

[Singer3000]

With an eye that this is the investor thread not the customer thread, here’s what I learnt:

• Given how many people here are surprised or disappointed that it looks like a taller 3, it seems lots of people don’t actually listen to the investor calls. It was at least a year ago that (paraphrase) Elon said he had been talked out of being dumb and doing an entirely new design for the Y. Most recent comments were that c.75% of the parts are common with the 3.
• Given the parts overlap, the production timelines seem realistic. With a fair rub they may be exceeded.
• They really don’t need the cash from the deposits. Barely any time was spent selling the Y at all. The $2,500 deposit is enough to turn off the “just in case” deposits. And they haven’t even opened it up to Right Hand Drive markets.
• Elon doubled down on making around 500k cars in the next year (though this was not calendar 2019 but one year from now). Goodo.
• The recent ad nauseum conversation here about Tesla doing a Super Bowl ad misses the point. This whole presentation was designed as Tesla’s Super Bowl ad, with a brief history of the company and its goals, and the real stars of the show being the three products available for purchase today.
• No info at all on the production plan. Except the website FAQ which suddenly drops the bomb about European production by end of 2021. Say what?!

 

[T@oo]

No $1,000 pre-orders, but $2,500 (fully refundable) configurator open. This is a very nice touch, because it allows the measurement of demand for the take rate of actual trims and options. Also de-emphasizes comparisons with Model 3 $1,000 pre-orders.
​

What's the effect for accounting here? Could 50K "orders" mean 125mil more on the plus side of the Q1 balance sheet?

 

[Fact Checking]

Yeah, I don't expect a major move in the stock one way or another. No surprises in the reveal, except a small positive one (7 seater option).

There were a couple of other Model Y unveil surprises to me:

• Elon confirmed FSD will be feature-complete in the next 9 months (by end of 2019),
• Model 3 and Model Y order page lists the upcoming FSD features:
  • "Coming later this year:"
    • "Recognize and respond to traffic lights and stop signs."
    • "Automatic driving on city streets."
  • Model Y lists these and the existing FSD features as part of the FSD option.

• No $1,000 pre-orders, but $2,500 (fully refundable) configurator open. This is a very nice touch, because it allows the measurement of demand for the take rate of actual trims and options. Also de-emphasizes comparisons with Model 3 $1,000 pre-orders.

• Panoramic glass roof - this is very nice and will be a big selling point too IMO.

• Range is better than expected, cargo space is huge and 7 seats will make it a popular family car - Osbourning any competing SUVs that have a lower entry price than the X, while safely differentiated both from Model X features and looks.

• Could result in more Model 3 (or Model X) orders: with the Model Y being a known quantity and having fix prices and expected production, it could trigger quite a few "the Model 3 is large enough for us, we'll trade up to the Y once the 4th kid is underway" decision.

To me the Model Y unveil was exactly what I hoped it to be: a gorgeous crossover with well specified looks, features and pricing, differentiated from the Model X, which should unlock more Q1 demand and which should Osbourne the heck out of the (mostly ICE) competition.

In ~2 years ICE carmakers should book a ~1.5 million units sized hole in their SUV order books in the $39k-$80k price segment, in the ~90 billion dollars per year order of magnitude.

Just saying.

 

[printf42]

I admit the Model Y does look a bit boring since it just duplicates Model 3’s style which we are used to already.

But seems FUDsters couldn’t find any crack to attack it except endlessly repeats it’s ugly.

I will take that as “job well done Tesla”.

 

[Fact Checking]

No $1,000 pre-orders, but $2,500 (fully refundable) configurator open. This is a very nice touch, because it allows the measurement of demand for the take rate of actual trims and options. Also de-emphasizes comparisons with Model 3 $1,000 pre-orders.
​

What's the effect for accounting here? Could 50K "orders" mean 125mil more on the plus site of the Q1 balance sheet?

AFAIK refundable orders have no effect on revenue, profits and FCF - but they improve cash flow and the balance sheet.

It also provides some (minor) income:

• when there's excess cash this earns interest,
• when production is ramping up in a quarter it reduces the draw on short term credit lines, which is even higher effective interest not paid to banks, and frees up credit for other (short term) purposes.

 

[schonelucht]

A couple of surprises:

• Elon confirmed FSD will be feature-complete in the next 9 months (by end of 2019),
• Model 3 and Model Y order page lists the upcoming FSD features:
  • "Coming later this year:"
    • "Recognize and respond to traffic lights and stop signs."
    • "Automatic driving on city streets."
  • Model Y lists these and the existing FSD features as part of the FSD option.

Didn't yet watch his presentation (sound asleep), so allow me a clarification question. Will those features include the ability to summon an empty car from miles away over public road? For example, downtown meeting and have the car drive itself to a free parking lot outside the city. And then come back to pick you up. All without a driver?

 

[En_light_en]

TSLA down 3.65% in Frankfurt, I hope it is only due to low volume but not a good sign

 

[FrANce]

Looks pretty good imo.

I actually liked that the unveil was understated, and while I'm personally not a SUV/CUV fan, I imagine the Model Y will sell extremely well.

To me, the most puzzling thing about the presentation was the dirty stage and tires/absence of good lighting, which didn't help the car to look its best.

 

[Fact Checking]

Didn't yet watch his presentation (sound asleep), so allow me a clarification question. Will those features include the ability to summon an empty car from miles away over public road? For example, downtown meeting and have the car drive itself to a free parking lot outside the city. And then come back to pick you up. All without a driver?

As you are probably aware of, no-driver FSD probably won't be legal in the vast majority of jurisdictions for years.

Also, most cars are close to their owners, most of the time, so in terms of practical FSD these are the two main use-cases and low hanging fruits:

• Advanced Summon, i.e. car finding you in a parking lot at low speeds,
• FSD with driver present and at attention.

I don't know how long it will take for cars to be FSD-driving at high speeds alone/unattended, or with drivers inside that are legally inattentive/asleep.

 

[myt-e-s-l-a]

ICYM,

here is a comparison bw M3 and MY when both images are superimposed

 

[Fact Checking]

TSLA down 3.65% in Frankfurt,

I suspect it's in part short term traders who were speculating on a bigger surprise for the Model Y unveil: a major "something else" moment or some surprise production promise.

As I pointed it out repeatedly: the March 14 date, just two weeks from end of quarter, made it almost certain that this would be a solid demand generation unveil, with no other products or future capabilities presented that would result in deferred Q1 purchases and delayed sales.

 

[Artful Dodger]

There were a couple of other Model Y unveil surprises to me

The other detail Elon provided was that Tesla has made 550K cars "to date". Does anyone know what Tesla's cumulative production was thru end of 2018Q4? With some sly maths, we might get a rough 2019Q1/YTD production number.
Cheers!

 

[saniflash]

max pain today $295

Opricot Open Interest|Volume|Max Pain

 

[Ellec]

TSLA down 3.65% in Frankfurt, I hope it is only due to low volume but not a good sign

The share price doesn't matter now as March convert debt has been repaid (to Tesla), I think it will range until the following happens.

• Model 3/Y ramping to 1m+ a year
• Completion of the China GF.
• European GF announcment
• Pickup Unveiling