Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[HG Wells]

"@cleantechnica writer and friend Paul @atj721 thinks 80k Model 3 production this quarter, up 33% from 4Q’18. Anti-tesla forces are in a panic. They want to depress shareholders before the delivery numbers. Is this a company with a demand problem? @tesla_truth #TeslaModel3"

Vigo on Twitter

But the problem is DEMAND !
TOO MUCH DEMAND !

 

[defc0n]

Quarterly earnings are supposed to be released tomorrow. Leaks?

One would think the potential offer would pin the SP closer to the offer and not allow such a drop regardless of earnings, unless said merger is suddenly at a much greater risk of not happening.

 

[PhaseWhite]

I read that. I don't like the author. He's made a number of grossly inaccurate claims in the past. Always some Tesla killer around the corner with him. However, one point he makes is that the current delay in the sur-reply is because of a "NO" response, which would take longer to draft than a YES response. On the other hand, like I said, the judge may be getting ready to issue a ruling in favor of Musk (lower probability though I think). Though if she was leaning against Musk, I don't understand why she wouldn't allow a simple 10 page response that was to be submitted by Friday. That would put to rest any impartiality or full consideration issues. Really not sure what to make of this delay.

Can somebody call the judge and ask her?

I can't think of any reason why someone like @Anton W exists, other than being a paid FUDster by some larger interest. I mean what would it take to motivate someone to write garbage articles non stop, that even he can't possibly believe to be true, citing bad statistics and making claims that are wrong over and over. In any sane world someone like this would cease because they are providing no value worth paying for. It seems to me that ol' Anton is getting paid to mill out these articles. Yes these platforms pay per article but that compensation is peanuts so I'm skeptical that's the primary motivator here.

 

[KarenRei]

I can't think of any reason why someone like @Anton W exists, other than being a paid FUDster by some larger interest. I mean what would it take to motivate someone to write garbage articles non stop, that even he can't possibly believe to be true, citing bad statistics and making claims that are wrong over and over.

To be fair, he is an expert on fraud.

Investors Win Victory Against UBS Warburg in Analyst Research Lawsuit

 

[Krugerrand]

Agree. Materiality is the issue. SEC seems to want to stifle the communication of even immaterial information. They know that they can pressure Musk with suits that may actually have no merit whatsoever. They don't have to win this case; bad publicity alone is enough to force Musk in to compliance. So the question is, what would be motivating such overreach? Whose interests would be served?

Force Musk into compliance?! Ahahahaha! Um...no they can’t. They might think they can, and perhaps for a second or two he’ll play ball. But long term, not a chance in Purgatory.

 

[dc_h]

Uh, you're missing something obvious. He can pledge more shares. Or pledge SpaceX shares.

Just by pledging more TSLA shares, Musk is fine down to a stock price of $84.54 per share. (Well, since the loan size keeps going up as interest accrues, it would have to be a bit more than that, but $100/share would be fine.) And then there's SpaceX shares he can borrow against.

He could cash out some shares or pay himself a salary, especially at SpaceX. Paying a 5 million salary at SpaceX and Tesla would not be out of line. I think he would prefer not to, but from his perch, he has a lot of choices (if not options).

 

[Antares Nebula]

I can't think of any reason why someone like @Anton W exists, other than being a paid FUDster by some larger interest. I mean what would it take to motivate someone to write garbage articles non stop, that even he can't possibly believe to be true, citing bad statistics and making claims that are wrong over and over. In any sane world someone like this would cease because they are providing no value worth paying for. It seems to me that ol' Anton is getting paid to mill out these articles. Yes these platforms pay per article but that compensation is peanuts so I'm skeptical that's the primary motivator here.

Highly likely. Look at his past questionable history, to say the least (below). It is incredible that Seeking Alpha allows him to publish articles. And what does that mean about the qualifications and requirements of the other authors on their platform?

Investors Win Victory Against UBS Warburg in Analyst Research Lawsuit

"NEW YORK, Sept. 24, 2004 (PRIMEZONE) -- In a significant victory for investors, on September 20, 2004, Manhattan Federal Judge Richard M. Berman ruled that buyers of stock issued by Interspeed, a now-defunct corporation that developed internet DSL technology, could proceed with a class-action lawsuit against UBS Warburg LLC and former UBS Warburg Senior Telecommunications Analyst Anton Wahlman. Co-lead counsel for the Plaintiff Class are Marc I. Gross of Pomerantz Haudek Block Grossman & Gross LLP, and Brian P. Murray of Murray, Frank & Sailer LLP.

The lawsuit alleges, among other matters, that between January 3, 2000 and July 20, 2000, UBS Warburg distributed research reports written by Wahlman that were false and misleading because they maintained a "buy" rating on Interspeed stock while, at the same time, Wahlman was privately sending e-mails to UBS personnel indicating that he believed that Interspeed stock should be shorted. The lawsuit also charges that Wahlman's research reports were false and misleading because Wahlman failed to disclose to the investing public his belief that Interspeed was engaging in "creative accounting."

According to the Complaint, for example, On January 3, 2000, UBS Warburg issued a research report by Wahlman that rated Interspeed a "buy." Just two days later, Wahlman privately e-mailed a member of UBS Warburg's sales force, "(d)on't put people into Interspeed -- very risky." Fifteen minutes later, the recipient of the e-mail responded, asking "so why is (Interspeed) a short?" Wahlman replied, "(j)ust lumpy revenue, some stuffing of channel, creative accounting."

The lawsuit charges that UBS Warburg's and Wahlman's motive for issuing the fraudulent analyst reports was the desire to garner investment banking fees from Interspeed. The Complaint alleges that UBS Warburg earned $700,000 for underwriting Interspeed's 1999 initial public offering.

The lawsuit also charges that if UBS Warburg had published truthful reports by Wahlman, the stock price of Interspeed would have plummeted.

Plaintiffs will now have the opportunity to seek discovery from UBS Warburg, Wahlman and others, and to prepare the case for trial."

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Really impressed with Gali and Hyperchange tonight. He realizes this whole story stinks like a pile of chicken manure. Get out before it's too late. Elon has completely lost control and the SEC are going to smack him like a red headed step child. The only thing Gali said that was off key was that he doesn't plan on selling. Remember folks, Musk is the billionairre and not you. What a disaster.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Force Musk into compliance?! Ahahahaha! Um...no they can’t. They might think they can, and perhaps for a second or two he’ll play ball. But long term, not a chance in Purgatory.

Musk is a fixer.

He saw that the reusable rocket system was broken. Fixed.
He saw that earth’s CO2 cycle was leaking. Work in progress.
He saw that the SEC was broken...

 

[Antares Nebula]

Ha, ha... @KarenRei you read my mind. I didn't see your post till after I posted.

 

[ggr]

Odd don’t see anything yet

$4.17 as I type. The usual bull, two law firms announce investigations into the merger.

 

[Starno]

Musk is a fixer.

He saw that the reusable rocket system was broken. Fixed.
He saw that earth’s CO2 cycle was leaking. Work in progress.
He saw that the SEC was broken...

I think there's many things he could fix before taking on the SEC issue though.. lol

 

[ReflexFunds]

Really impressed with Gali and Hyperchange tonight. He realizes this whole story stinks like a pile of chicken manure. Get out before it's too late. Elon has completely lost control and the SEC are going to smack him like a red headed step child. The only thing Gali said that was off key was that he doesn't plan on selling. Remember folks, Musk is the billionairre and not you. What a disaster.

This is down to a judge, not the SEC.

Firstly, Elon has a chance of winning the case. It is not the simple case the media has portrayed.
Secondly, if he does lose, there is a good chance the judge will just enforce a clearer stricter Tesla communications policy.
And finally, if Elon is forced to step down as CEO, Tesla will be fine. Jerome will make a great CEO and understands the urgency of the Clean Energy transition. Elon will still be there to solve engineering challenges and invent new products.

 

[Krugerrand]

The next vaccum cleaner Hoover makes will be compared to Tesla.. because you know both run on electricity.

Um...I believe we already had the ‘Dyson is entering the EV market and will kill Tesla’ headline.

 

[Carl Raymond]

I think there's many things he could fix before taking on the SEC issue though.. lol

En passant.

 

[Singuy]

Really impressed with Gali and Hyperchange tonight. He realizes this whole story stinks like a pile of chicken manure. Get out before it's too late. Elon has completely lost control and the SEC are going to smack him like a red headed step child. The only thing Gali said that was off key was that he doesn't plan on selling. Remember folks, Musk is the billionairre and not you. What a disaster.

74 million single family homes in the U.S, 63% of them have garages
1.2 million new houses sold each year, 72% of these comes with garages

So 46 million houses have garages while 864k new houses added each year.

When he said "I know this is anecdotal" , that's when I turned off the video....
So Tesla is running out of customers due to a lack of garages huh...

 

[madodel]

I wasn't watching, but I'm told Jim Cramer just ranted on CNBC against Tesla and Musk, saying that anyone who buys a Tesla is an idiot and that Musk has to go to jail or the US no longer has a working justice system.

Which is weird, because I watched him just a couple weeks ago say that he wanted to buy a Tesla.

Hint to Jim: Angrily demanding on national television that a judge rule in a particular manner may not have the effect you're looking for.

They wouldn't throw in undercoating and door edge guards so he went with a Hyundai instead. Cramer is a dancing clown.

 

[CaliBear1]

Incorporating design cues from the Roadster 2.0 (especially the fascia) will definitely reignite S sales. I don't think that would require a major manufacturing overhaul. That plus an interior refresh would be great.

They need an interior refresh badly. Maybe new tail lights for Model S too

 

[Krugerrand]

I ordered FSD when the price dropped to $3k I think it was a day or two later it dropped to $2k.
Just received notice that Tesla refunded me $1k.

Yeah this company rocks!

Way to go. You’ve now bankrupted Tesla.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

I just don't trust the system one damn bit. Look at Cramer today. I don't agree obviously. But how do I know that the Judge is not thinking like Cramer and all the other media pundits? I know what @Fact Checking said, and I hope it's true. Look, even many of the bulls (not me), like Gerber, Value Analyst, were all getting on Musk about that tweet and others. I mean none of these people have really looked at the numbers. And what did Cramer say in response to someone tweeting him about the info in the CC which showed the tweet was not material? He dismissed that as meaningless.

Basically, the consensus among the media and even some bulls is that Musk's tweeting is out of hand and needs to be reined in (again, I completely disagree). Why should I have faith that the judge is going to think any differently? I hope she does because that's what judges (and juries) are supposed to do (look at the facts and rule without bias). But I lost faith in the system (not Tesla/Musk people, but the system).

I hope I am pleasantly surprised and wrong!

I think we win long term if Musk is forced into strict communication compliance, and gets a communication couch.

He needs to stop BS about how Tesla almost died last time around. I'm afraid what he's gonna say in couple of months about this quarter. And he especially can't do that after Feb CC call, where he said something along 'we're not even thinking about demand'. Inconsistencies like this abound in the past, more prevalently during the MX launch. This pattern seem to be: minimize problems while they're happening as Musk is an optimist and believe he can fix them, and then, blow issues out of proportion once they're fixed, as that presents team in a better light. This perspective could be exactly how musk sees situation at the time, but for outside observers, it seems inconsistent, and these are the roots of TSLAQ accusing him of lying.

We really would be better off if he can stop talking about 'almost died' situations, dragons he slayed, and how tough it was. Crucially, I feel Musk doesn't instinctively understand difference between 1. communicating to interested parties, and those he reaches very well, vs. 2. talking to media and disinterested crowd that doesn't care, one fed by soundbites. First group will have a sympathy for those stories, second is going to see it as drama and lying...

Musk would do way better if he were to be prepped, like a politician or a witness in a court, about messages that are a no-go. Until he develops this skill himself.

Since he expressed trust in judicial system, I hope judge can send this message in a way that is not damaging, yet is convincing to Musk himself.

There, I said it, I'd prefer Musk to receive some sort of a gag order. (I changed this last statement to be more dramatic, as Disagreements were accumulating too slowly )