Regarding GF1 bty cell production, we have an 'outsider' estimate from
carsonight which has been consistant since Dec 2018:
- 10 orig. Pana. lines making 300K cells/day @ 18 whr/cell ~ 37.8 MWhr/wk/line
- 1 line dedicated TE cell production (diff. chem vs Automotive) ~ 2.0 GWhr/yr
- 3 new Pana. lines make 400K cells/day @ 18 whr/cell ~ 50.4 Mwhr/wk/line
- that's about 9*37.8 MWhr/wk + 3*50.4 MWhr/wk ~ 491 MWhr/wk Automotive
- that's about 25.5 GWhr/yr, plus TE, gives GF1 ann. output of 27.5 GWhr/yr
Two
new data points to consider now:
- Panasonic said they plan to increase production to 35 GWhr/yr by 2019Q2
- Elon is chomping at
the bit his cigar to get the Tesla Semi into production
So how do we provision all these extra cells? Let's model cell production
if those 10 orig. Pana. lines were also
upgraded to 400K cells per day output:
(10+3) * 400,000 * 7 * 18 => 655.2 MWhr / wk or 34.1 GWhr / yr
Indeed, if actual output is just 3% higher (412,000 cells/line/day) that is the promised
35.0 GWhr / yr from just upgrading the existing 13 lines.
So how much spare capacity is that? Let's do the easy case with 12*103K extra cells per day:
- 155 MWhr / wk (enough for 150 long-range Semis (250 Std Rge) per week)
- 8.1 GWhr / wk (enough for 7,500 long-range Semis (12,500) per year)
How many Semi tractors
could that allow? Let's model the Semi with a
600 KWhr bty pack (300 mile range version). Why? It's 258 miles
from Fremont to Sparks, and Tesla will be their own 1st Customer.
Note that the 1st remote Megacharger site will be near the halfway point, the State Capital Sacramento, CA. More free marketing?
How many Semi tractors does Tesla need for daily logistics between Sparks and Fremont? Let's go by weight:
- Say that an avg 64KWhr bty pack and 1.5 mtrs plus drive electronis weighs 500 kg (WAG).
- Assume the max shipping wt per load is 20K kg
- then each truck load can deliver approx 40 Model 3s worth of components
- 1,000 Model 3 per day output, that's 25 round trips req'd per day
- now double that for the min No. of tractors required, that's 50
- now double it again to get raw material from Port of SFO to Sparks, that's 100
- and double it again to to allow for vehicle availability (this is BETA!) that's 200
- double it again for local logistics (Seat assembly, Lathrop Dist, Port of SFO)
- add 25% for unassigned / spares for special deliveries / surge capabilities
- that's about 500 Semis to cover Tesla's California/NV internal logistics
But that's just
2 week's production for Tesla's immediate logistics needs. They will have 12K/yr initial spare capacity which can go to the short-haul market. Yeah, so Tesla could rapidly expand their nationwide customer fleet.
I don't have parameters to estimate
long-haul usage, but I suspect that will have to wait until the wide deployment of Megachargers along supported routes. Keep in mind,
Supercharger v3 is being deployed this year, and its tech is
foundational for the Megacharger network. I further expect
Level 4 autonomy will be low hanging fruit via '
platooning' on the Interstate highway system, travelling
between Megacharger locations.
So then, back to the 300 mi range (600 KWhr) version of the Semi. How many can Tesla sell to customers? Simple.
All of them. 8X production (100,000/yr) is Elon's estimate for market size. The
new California incentives alone will make Tesla Semi irresistable to early adopters. The 'S' curve lives!
This is gonna get big, fast. Hold on to yer hats ('n shares).
Cheers!
P.S. No, there will be no 2170 'refresh' for S/X anytime soon.
P.P.S. My guess is Elon wants 'Maxcells' in the new flagship, exclusively to start. How about 435 mi (700 km) range for the high end sedan? And 300 miles recharging in 15 min?
