Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[tinm]

One question this now begs:

How likely will we drop below $245.90 tomorrow (that being the low-end price for TSLA in terms of calculating the MXWL transaction).

 

[JustAaronnoraA]

Well .. if anyone here trade $TSLA base on TA, tomorrow suppose to be the best day this year to do that.

 

[sparcs]

Only 62,950 Model 3 produced. So much for carsonight and his steady state of >6k a week.

if you divide by 13 weeks, that's only 4842 per week of Model 3s. Getting to 7k per week at Fremont looks to be far more challenging than many here have thought. Then add in all the delivery limitations.

 

[azaz]

hard to argue that they are production constrained at this point. they need to start advertising.

 

[ZachF]

It's out
Tesla Q1 2019 Vehicle Production & Deliveries
P 77100
D 63000

Welp.... Here's to another 3 months of FUD....

 

[Cherry Wine]

terrible report, 12k S/X is so troubling for demand

I disagree with regard to S/X based on the following:

• Q4 hangover and seasonal variance.
• Elimination of low-margin variants means that impact on profit is likely minimal, or even positive, even with lower numbers.
• Some of the drop in demand is likely due to cannibalization by high margin Model 3s.

I'm sure others have more substantial arguments.

Overall though, I find the numbers disappointing. Let this be a reminder to folks not to correlate "Elon's Twitter mood" with impending results announcements. I made that mistake in the past, and won't do it again.

 

[JustAaronnoraA]

One question this now begs:

How likely will we drop below $245.90 tomorrow (that being the low-end price for TSLA in terms of calculating the MXWL transaction).

I'll give it 15% chance base on TA and worst possible outcome from the judge Nathan. Possibly a raise/all cash offer for MXWL if SP fell below that.

 

[traxila]

110% increase YoY...and everyone agrees it is a fail .

Yeah, I know the stock may get hammered, but honestly weren't bad numbers baked into our descent in the first place? Wasn't the news already sold?

Maybe that doesn't matter but I thought the whole point of the drop from December was that Elon guided for a loss in the first quarter. And yet, the analysts get to be shocked and disgusted all over again now...as do a lot people on this site for reasons unknown.

Looking forward to a great second quarter and an S and X refresh.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

hard to argue that they are production constrained at this point. they need to start advertising.

Is it? They only produced ~4K more than they got orders for. Looks to me like low production combined with a large in-transit count(10,600).

 

[anthonyj]

They were blowing these cars out with huge discounts. Honestly think it's time for Tesla to start advertising. You can keep reducing the price of the car but that won't reach new ears.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

This is bad... not even trolling

This is what I expected after seeing delay with publishing data. Was hoping to be wrong...

 

[azaz]

wasn't hard to tell there were real demand issues this quarter yet this thread/forum was hilariously wrong with uber bull sentiment

 

[1kEE]

One question this now begs:

How likely will we drop below $245.90 tomorrow (that being the low-end price for TSLA in terms of calculating the MXWL transaction).

Oh come on.... tomorrow Am won’t be pretty, but 245.90 sounds a touch extreme.

 

[ZeApelido]

This is ridiculous. I’m glad we’re only down 11 cents after hours.

I don’t believe this has anything to do with bad numbers— first report by the new CFO, or some other glitch, most likely— but it’s a bad look for Tesla.

"Deepak, in cell D13, it has a random number generating number of cars delivered. Are you sure that's right?"

Ducks for cover

 

[ZachF]

110% increase YoY...and everyone agrees it is a fail .

Yeah, I know the stock may get hammered, but honestly weren't bad numbers baked into our descent in the first place? Wasn't the news already sold?

Maybe that doesn't matter but I thought the whole point of the drop from December was that Elon guided for a loss in the first quarter. And yet, the analysts get to be shocked and disgusted all over again now...as do a lot people on this site for reasons unknown.

Looking forward to a great second quarter and an S and X refresh.

It's 110% increase in units but ASP is probably down by alot.

Unfortunately this report means we're going to have to live with at least another quarter of the FUD drumbeat...

 

[azaz]

They were blowing these cars out with huge discounts. Honestly think it's time for Tesla to start advertising. You can keep reducing the price of the car but that won't reach new ears.

exactly this, S/X demand fell off a cliff and even 3 demand in the US was very weak until the price drop and massive discounts being offered on 2018 models.

 

[AlexS]

Tesla falls short of expectations for first-quarter deliveries

so it makes that china was only 13k. Once again where did this data came from that china is 10-15k? I didn't see it, but it was correct.

And once again we don't have clear guidance for q2.

 

[Starno]

Still prior guidance of 360000-400000 re affirmed AND "US orders for Model 3 vehicles significantly outpaced what we were able to deliver in Q1".

Fundamentally I'm okay with the report, however the market might not see it that way right now...

 

[mutle]

They were blowing these cars out with huge discounts. Honestly think it's time for Tesla to start advertising. You can keep reducing the price of the car but that won't reach new ears.

Pretty sure that would only apply to the third month of production. The first two were almost entirely AWD and P for EU and China. Will be interesting to see ASP compared to Q4.

 

[Fred42]

terrible report, 12k S/X is so troubling for demand

Tesla chose to eliminate the affordable models and cut production. Hopefully we'll learn how this decision best supported their goals. .