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OT, mostly

Just one more small data point reinforcing the notion that Tesla is not just years, but light-years ahead of the rest of the automotive world. Today I attended the opening day of the New Mexico International Auto Show in Albuquerque. Here's a panoramic shot of the main exhibit hall as soon as you walk in:

nm-auto-show-1.png


  • Why, there must have been dozens of attendees. Okay, maybe two dozen attendees. But hey, it's a work day. It'll be fuller this weekend, honest.
  • The show is sponsored by one entity: the New Mexico Automotive Dealers Association. The very thugs who have enshrined their business model into state law, thus ensuring that Tesla's direct sales/service model is kept out of the state. We continue to fight them, and won't back down. Meanwhile, this is their pride and joy. And nobody's here.
  • I went to every single automaker's exhibit, and asked every single one of them: do you have any pure battery electric vehicles on display this year? "Uh, no" was the usual reply, or, "no, but we have a hybrid over here!"
  • There was one--count 'em--one EV in the entire exhibit hall. A Nissan Leaf. That's it.
  • The GM/Buick/Chevy exhibit lacked a Bolt or a Volt. "We're concentrating on what the market wants in New Mexico," I was told.
  • The feeling in the show was, hey this is gasoline-loving New Mexico, what climate crisis? Carbon? Yeah I have carbon, on my spoiler, check it out dude!
The only EV on the entire show floor: the Nissan LEAF.

nm-auto-show-LEAF.png



Here's the exhibit area for Toyota. Numerous hybrids:

nm-auto-show-TOYOTA.png



The Toyota rep was so meticulously well-rehearsed, polished, and ready for any potential attendee question, I wasn't sure if he was real or AI with a hologram display. It was like talking to the HAL-9000 computer or Data from Star Trek. Here's the verbatim conversation.

Me: So Toyota doesn’t yet have any EVs does it?
Rep: We did in the 90s, and then we did in 2014. They were limited runs, they were known to be bought in bulk by the government and *crushed*. (Snorts.)
Me: Okay. (I fear he is thinking of GM's EV1, but I didn't say anything.)
Rep: So we did a partnership in 2012 with Tesla.
Me: Right, the RAV4.
Rep: RAV4. but it was the 2012 body style. So it was the hatchback...
Me: I remember.
Rep: They made 1500, the range was 103, and they sold well. But then they didn’t make them anymore. Now, from Corporate in Plano (TX) last year, we asked them, “What is the future of EV?”
Me: Right.
Rep: And the Corporate answer was, "Toyota has their hands on all future fuels." That being said, there might be a longer range vehicle on the horizon. But as product specialists we are trained and drive current products. They don’t tell us.​

After searching his memory banks he went on, perhaps thinking of a way to sway me away from my obsession with electric vehicles and back to the bright future of "all future fuels," so he started to sing the praises of hydrogen and brag that Toyota now offered 39--count 'em, thirty nine!--hydrogen refill stations in California. Oh, and he tried very hard to explain that Toyota's hydrogen-powered vehicles are actually EVs, as the hydrogen energy is converted to electricity and powers electric motors. At that point I thanked him for the brilliant exposition which had expanded my mind greatly, but I spared telling him I drive a Model S. :)

It turns out the NM International Auto Show was so vast, it couldn't all fit in the main East Hall, so one had to exit the building, cross the street (cop watching carefully for jay-walkers) and enter the West Hall, where BMW/Mini, Audi, Porsche, Mercedes, Volvo, Lincoln, and Mitsubishi had some cars. Emphasis on "some."

nm-auto-show-West-Hall.png


The curse of trade shows everywhere: the second hall, the one only 10% of the attendees know about, despite all the signs for "MORE AUTO SHOW!" There were maybe a dozen (I'm being generous) people in this entire West Hall.

I met two people hanging around the Porsches. They were volunteers from Porsche Club of America - NM chapter. Very nice folks. I told them I run the Tesla Owners Club of New Mexico. "That must be a quiet group," one of them said, trying to make a snarky little anti-Tesla joke. "Well, we have almost 300 members, so it's not too quiet," I replied. They were shocked. :)

The West Hall had zero electric vehicles. Nothing. Nada. Zip.

. . . .

Okay, I lied. There wasn't just one EV in the entire auto show. There were five. See, tucked into one corner was the "KIDS AUTOBAHN" where kids could ride on little electric race cars around a track on the carpet. There were four electric race cars, two in use by two kids at the time I stopped by.

nm-auto-show-kidsEVs.png


In a way it was so perfect. The future is owned by the kids. And the future is EVs. It was somehow so fitting that the trade show limited the gas-guzzlers to the adults, but it had to relent and put kids in cool little EVs. It is their destiny.

. . .

Anyway, that was the show. Like I said, Tesla is so light-years ahead it is just amazing.
 
Fox news and joe rogan makes me believe that the marketing campaign should start with the right wing demographics. Play on the traditional MAGA. I now believe that the truck might be the most important product for tesla.

Using this same thinking, I believe the Semi will convert a larger segment of disbelievers than any other product...
 
I am concerned about a massive bear raid Monday morning with the uptick rule being over. I expect a load of FUD articles over the weekend and a significant drop Monday morning. The direction after the drop will be telling. I sold some covered calls for next week to try and make some $ from this. If I am wrong then I don't mind mind rolling them out as needed.

I did that exact thing a couple months ago when the stock dropped 10%. The day the uptick rule ended the stock went up instead of down. It then rose another 30+ $ and my out of the money calls became in the money. I lost over $40k buying them back to not lose my shares. I didn't roll because the stock was looking like it was going to 400. I'm not making that mistake again....
 
Found out why the stock is bullish af

MacKenzie Bezos’s $36 Billion Divorce Settlement Makes Her the Fourth-Richest Woman in the World

Also, about that Bloomberg article, wow, I can't believe Elon beat up that employee. It's definitely real because it came from an unnamed source. This person wouldn't want to get beat up again by Elon. Wowzers, Dana Hull wrote this? She's a top journalist and isn't biased at all. Elon is a horrible human bean. Def selling my Tesla and my TSLA after this. (not gonna put a /s cus im for serious)
 
echo chambers are what lead to "how did you not see that coming" and should be avoided at all costs.
I suddenly see people feeling vindicated that look how we were right to point out Tesla’s trouble and nobody heeded.

But if you are a seasoned Tesla investor and understand a good history of Tesla, this quarter was all fairly explainable if not expected. The only issue was recency bias in the last week where the delivery stories made people more optimistic and wild numbers started to throw around. But most of us knew of challenges in the quarter and that of s and x demand.

In the end, the doom gloom story is not really there. The real issue was Q4 pullback, aging model SX, lack of available lower priced model3, delays in shipping, tooling, and other logistics of international shipping.

So suddenly if you are feeling that you were right to raise caution, you may have been lucky but not correct on the argument of demand, advertisement (or lack there of), or Elon’s twitter habits.

I think Q1 was a confusing quarter but should have no bearing on true strategic growth path for Tesla.
 
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Found out why the stock is bullish af

MacKenzie Bezos’s $36 Billion Divorce Settlement Makes Her the Fourth-Richest Woman in the World

Also, about that Bloomberg article, wow, I can't believe Elon beat up that employee. It's definitely real because it came from an unnamed source. This person wouldn't want to get beat up again by Elon. Wowzers, Dana Hull wrote this? She's a top journalist and isn't biased at all. Elon is a horrible human bean. Def selling my Tesla and my TSLA after this. (not gonna put a /s cus im for serious)

IMHO, if MacKenzie wanted to get back at Jeff, she'd invest in SpaceX, not Tesla ;)
 
Fred Alert:

Tesla is upgrading Model S/X with new, more efficient electric motors

Well well well, who didn't call this ages ago ;) S&X being refreshed not with 2170s, but with PMSRMs. Motor codenamed "Raven". Charge rate improvements coming too. Timeframe: "could happen relatively soon, according to people familiar with the matter."

Of course, caveat... define "relatively soon" and who said people are ;) Sounds like the data may have been gleaned from digging through the most recent software update rather than a corporate leak.

A PMSRM of course means more range (~5% on the highway, ~10% in city driving) and a lower Wh/km, so less time at a charger - even ignoring the charge rate upgrades :) Would also mean more sustained track performance.

Ed: I've seen some suggestion that Green may be the source:

green on Twitter
green on Twitter
green on Twitter

He thinks based on history it should be out in under six months, but might be ready already. But while he discovered the code, its not clear that he's the only source. Fred discussed a lot more details than Green did.
 
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Fred Alert:

Tesla is upgrading Model S/X with new, more efficient electric motors

Well well well, who didn't call this ages ago ;) S&X being refreshed not with 2170s, but with PMSRMs. Motor codenamed "Raven". Charge rate improvements coming too. Timeframe: "could happen relatively soon, according to people familiar with the matter."

This of course means more range (~5% on the highway, ~10% in city driving) and a lower Wh/km, so less time at a charger - even ignoring the charge rate upgrades :)


Story comes from "sources familiar with the matter". I'd feel infinitely better if it was a Tesla release. Rumours ahead of time can only hurt.
 
OT, mostly

Just one more small data point reinforcing the notion that Tesla is not just years, but light-years ahead of the rest of the automotive world. Today I attended the opening day of the New Mexico International Auto Show in Albuquerque. Here's a panoramic shot of the main exhibit hall as soon as you walk in:

View attachment 394178

  • Why, there must have been dozens of attendees. Okay, maybe two dozen attendees. But hey, it's a work day. It'll be fuller this weekend, honest.
  • The show is sponsored by one entity: the New Mexico Automotive Dealers Association. The very thugs who have enshrined their business model into state law, thus ensuring that Tesla's direct sales/service model is kept out of the state. We continue to fight them, and won't back down. Meanwhile, this is their pride and joy. And nobody's here.
  • I went to every single automaker's exhibit, and asked every single one of them: do you have any pure battery electric vehicles on display this year? "Uh, no" was the usual reply, or, "no, but we have a hybrid over here!"
  • There was one--count 'em--one EV in the entire exhibit hall. A Nissan Leaf. That's it.
  • The GM/Buick/Chevy exhibit lacked a Bolt or a Volt. "We're concentrating on what the market wants in New Mexico," I was told.
  • The feeling in the show was, hey this is gasoline-loving New Mexico, what climate crisis? Carbon? Yeah I have carbon, on my spoiler, check it out dude!
The only EV on the entire show floor: the Nissan LEAF.

View attachment 394187


Here's the exhibit area for Toyota. Numerous hybrids:

View attachment 394189


The Toyota rep was so meticulously well-rehearsed, polished, and ready for any potential attendee question, I wasn't sure if he was real or AI with a hologram display. It was like talking to the HAL-9000 computer or Data from Star Trek. Here's the verbatim conversation.

Me: So Toyota doesn’t yet have any EVs does it?
Rep: We did in the 90s, and then we did in 2014. They were limited runs, they were known to be bought in bulk by the government and *crushed*. (Snorts.)
Me: Okay. (I fear he is thinking of GM's EV1, but I didn't say anything.)
Rep: So we did a partnership in 2012 with Tesla.
Me: Right, the RAV4.
Rep: RAV4. but it was the 2012 body style. So it was the hatchback...
Me: I remember.
Rep: They made 1500, the range was 103, and they sold well. But then they didn’t make them anymore. Now, from Corporate in Plano (TX) last year, we asked them, “What is the future of EV?”
Me: Right.
Rep: And the Corporate answer was, "Toyota has their hands on all future fuels." That being said, there might be a longer range vehicle on the horizon. But as product specialists we are trained and drive current products. They don’t tell us.​

After searching his memory banks he went on, perhaps thinking of a way to sway me away from my obsession with electric vehicles and back to the bright future of "all future fuels," so he started to sing the praises of hydrogen and brag that Toyota now offered 39--count 'em, thirty nine!--hydrogen refill stations in California. Oh, and he tried very hard to explain that Toyota's hydrogen-powered vehicles are actually EVs, as the hydrogen energy is converted to electricity and powers electric motors. At that point I thanked him for the brilliant exposition which had expanded my mind greatly, but I spared telling him I drive a Model S. :)

It turns out the NM International Auto Show was so vast, it couldn't all fit in the main East Hall, so one had to exit the building, cross the street (cop watching carefully for jay-walkers) and enter the West Hall, where BMW/Mini, Audi, Porsche, Mercedes, Volvo, Lincoln, and Mitsubishi had some cars. Emphasis on "some."

View attachment 394191

The curse of trade shows everywhere: the second hall, the one only 10% of the attendees know about, despite all the signs for "MORE AUTO SHOW!" There were maybe a dozen (I'm being generous) people in this entire West Hall.

I met two people hanging around the Porsches. They were volunteers from Porsche Club of America - NM chapter. Very nice folks. I told them I run the Tesla Owners Club of New Mexico. "That must be a quiet group," one of them said, trying to make a snarky little anti-Tesla joke. "Well, we have almost 300 members, so it's not too quiet," I replied. They were shocked. :)

The West Hall had zero electric vehicles. Nothing. Nada. Zip.

. . . .

Okay, I lied. There wasn't just one EV in the entire auto show. There were five. See, tucked into one corner was the "KIDS AUTOBAHN" where kids could ride on little electric race cars around a track on the carpet. There were four electric race cars, two in use by two kids at the time I stopped by.

View attachment 394193

In a way it was so perfect. The future is owned by the kids. And the future is EVs. It was somehow so fitting that the trade show limited the gas-guzzlers to the adults, but it had to relent and put kids in cool little EVs. It is their destiny.

. . .

Anyway, that was the show. Like I said, Tesla is so light-years ahead it is just amazing.

Thanks for the review.

Kudos to Nissan bringing the leaf plus though. There not the greatest EV out there and boring compared to a Tesla anything, but they are a good car and serve many well. (including us).
 
Cramer throwing shade at the judge now (after baiting her to throw Musk in jail last week). Now I know this guy is scum. I had some respect for him earlier, but no more. No longer listening to him.

Was I the only one that caught goofball saying that if Tesla was to sell 500K cars this year the stock should be at $400?

So right now if I project out this quarter as all quarters for the year, which is a completely WRONG way to do it but bear with me, that would put Tesla at 260K cars this year with a the current price of 275.

SO if Tesla reaches 387K delivered this year the stock should be worth at least 337.5.... using goofball logic of just finding the middle of both numbers. It works for me because of the goofball who is making the prediction.

Just maybe things are a bit under priced right now using even Cramer logic.
 
Story comes from "sources familiar with the matter". I'd feel infinitely better if it was a Tesla release. Rumours ahead of time can only hurt.

They're already building and shipping Model X's with AP3 hardware, so it's not surprising a powertrain refresh is coming along as well.

I've always said in the EV arena, Tesla still has the ball. They can upgrade anytime they need to for sake of demand or to make their "competitors" look bad. Many have speculated Model S & X upgrades and refreshes, this really isn't too surprising. And timing is near perfect because competition coming out are having a difficult time matching the existing S & X specs. They're gonna be banging their heads against the walls once they see the more efficient S & X's come out.
 

Interesting viewing.

Discussion at ~50:00 about motor differences between Bolt/i3/Model 3 is riveting stuff as well. Damn this guy gets me excited about Tesla.

Edit: LOL, right as they're talking about Tesla's popularity, with Sandy waxing on about how much people are into Tesla cars, they're getting ready to wrap up the show and the producer tells them to keep rolling (presumably because viewer engagement is so high).

Edit 2: Discussion at ~01:15:00 about Tesla's overlooked role as an American success story. Thank you, caller, for asking this question!! So frustrating.
 
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Fred Alert:

Tesla is upgrading Model S/X with new, more efficient electric motors

Well well well, who didn't call this ages ago ;) S&X being refreshed not with 2170s, but with PMSRMs. Motor codenamed "Raven". Charge rate improvements coming too. Timeframe: "could happen relatively soon, according to people familiar with the matter."

Of course, caveat... define "relatively soon" and who said people are ;) Sounds like the data may have been gleaned from digging through the most recent software update rather than a corporate leak.

A PMSRM of course means more range (~5% on the highway, ~10% in city driving) and a lower Wh/km, so less time at a charger - even ignoring the charge rate upgrades :) Would also mean more sustained track performance.

Ed: I've seen some suggestion that Green may be the source:

green on Twitter
green on Twitter

He thinks based on history it should be out in under six months, but might be ready already. But while he discovered the code, its not clear that he's the only source.

Thrilled to hear it, and hope it’s true. Should push the S over 350 miles and the X well over 300 miles, while saving Tesla money. I hope an interior refresh can also spur demand for S/X without increasing production costs.

While I believe Q1 deliveries understate true demand, adding together Q4 + Q1 numbers (which should wash out pull-forward effects and seasonality) produces just over 37k deliveries, or 74k annually. That’s below Tesla’s target of 80-85k annually, so it’s important that Tesla make cost-effective changes quickly to drive demand.
 
Tasha Keeney on fox business yesterday. What a breath of fresh air compared to CNBC.

I usually do not respect Fox news but I have to hand it to them. They did a real interview. Unlike CNBC Fox news actually asked tough questions and pressed their guest on her point of view. Why is it CNBC can never do that when the bears show up on their show. Instead CNBC puppet heads just sit there and nod their heads like.... well... puppets. That always makes me wonder if CNBC is running sponsored segments and not real news or interviews. (and I don't mean just segments paid for with commercials). You have to remember those days when the disclaimer used to play before whatever was about to air, "The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of.... viewer discretion is advised".
 
Thrilled to hear it, and hope it’s true. Should push the S over 350 miles and the X well over 300 miles, while saving Tesla money. I hope an interior refresh can also spur demand for S/X without increasing production costs.

While I believe Q1 deliveries understate true demand, adding together Q4 + Q1 numbers (which should wash out pull-forward effects and seasonality) produces just over 37k deliveries, or 74k annually. That’s below Tesla’s target of 80-85k annually, so it’s important that Tesla make cost-effective changes quickly to drive demand.

As an anecdotal data point, if Tesla releases an X with the new motors and no other changes, I'm a buyer.
 
If these are episodes true, I really don't like this behavior by Musk. It's just unacceptable, even if he's stressed and sleep-deprived.
“It is the board’s responsibility to take seriously any potential issues that come to our attention involving senior executives, no matter how small or how large,” said the board in an emailed statement. “In this instance we conducted a thorough review, which proved that there was never a physical altercation, a fact confirmed by multiple people who were present at the time.”

In a statement, Tesla also said no “physical altercation” took place. Like the board, the company didn’t specifically address the allegation of physical contact or verbal upbraiding of the employee. “Elon did exit an employee at our Fremont delivery center last year due to concerns about his performance, however there was no physical altercation whatsoever,” the company said. “Those reports are simply untrue as confirmed by numerous people that observed the incident first-hand.”

Also, I will, once again, point out that in this age of ubiquitous video recording devices there has never been one single recorded incidence of Elon's supposed "rage". Never, in the 16 years of Tesla history.
 
is there so many snowflake now that they don't know what the real world looks like? is that why lefties hate Tesla?

Grow up!

This sounds like how Biden is all surprised why after all these years people are pointing out his creepy behavior.

Yes, times are changing - not just in the way car is powered. People who used to tolerate abuses are speaking up. Those who don't change will be in trouble. Not just Tesla or Amazon or Microsoft. Better get used to this.

In leaked emails, women at Microsoft share stories of alleged sexual harassment

On the PR side of Tesla, this shows why they need a team that can quickly respond. Where is Tesla's response to this article ?

ps : There is a reason why most companies use security staff to escort fired employees out. Yes, a lot of times, they are not allowed to go back to the desk to fetch any items.

In response to Musk’s shouts, the worker moved to get his backpack, but Musk physically blocked him, the people said. Musk told the worker to just “get the f--- out,” they recalled him saying.
 
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