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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
There's a potential for a feed back loop here.
As tesla receive more credits, it can further lower m3 price and increasing market share. The other automakers won't be able to sell their ev and gain credit, hence forced to pool fleet with tesla. Which gives tesla more money to lower the m3 price in EU even more and increase market share more. Until an equilibrium where the other automakers now need less ev credit due to smaller market share.
As tesla receive more credits, it can further lower m3 price and increasing market share. The other automakers won't be able to sell their ev and gain credit, hence forced to pool fleet with tesla. Which gives tesla more money to lower the m3 price in EU even more and increase market share more. Until an equilibrium where the other automakers now need less ev credit due to smaller market share.
Antares Nebula
Active Member
Antares Nebula
Active Member
Why am I not surprised that the Fiat news is no where on the front page of CNBC, Bloomberg, or Reuters?
Watch. If it gaps up tomorrow, then they'll post it. Sure, they're not biased, sure!
Watch. If it gaps up tomorrow, then they'll post it. Sure, they're not biased, sure!
Naw, Word. Crappy UI, but can actually lay down some pretty complex stuff. I’m embedded in the Office eco.
No.
Tesla hasn't even started delivering the Standard 3 yet and have already lowered prices on much of the product line.
Tesla makes incredible cars at reasonable prices. It's time to play our cards and reap the benefits.
Just finished first long-distance trip with no confirm lane-changing (2019.8.5) (see here for writeup). My reason for posting on investor thread is simply this observation: Tesla is going to sell a lot of cars because of its progress toward self-driving.
I often read criticisms of Tesla's incremental progress on self-driving as saying "until the system actually achieves Level 4 or 5, what's the point?" Well, the point is there will be a tremendous amount of perceived value to the nearly effortless and stress-free way one can now drive on the highway. If this level of functionality were to be added to surface streets (stop lights, left and right turns, etc.) by end of year, per Elon's comments, then Tesla sales will benefit from the "self-driving market leader" halo effect for years to come.
Some have also suggested that it doesn't apply to the mainstream market (i.e. $35K base price) car, because it raises the price to $43K. Wouldn't be surprised if Tesla offered a monthly subscription (~$100/month?) to help address that need. The experience is already compelling, and it will undoubtedly get even better with time. Once someone has tried it out (30-day free trial?), very few will want to give it up.
I often read criticisms of Tesla's incremental progress on self-driving as saying "until the system actually achieves Level 4 or 5, what's the point?" Well, the point is there will be a tremendous amount of perceived value to the nearly effortless and stress-free way one can now drive on the highway. If this level of functionality were to be added to surface streets (stop lights, left and right turns, etc.) by end of year, per Elon's comments, then Tesla sales will benefit from the "self-driving market leader" halo effect for years to come.
Some have also suggested that it doesn't apply to the mainstream market (i.e. $35K base price) car, because it raises the price to $43K. Wouldn't be surprised if Tesla offered a monthly subscription (~$100/month?) to help address that need. The experience is already compelling, and it will undoubtedly get even better with time. Once someone has tried it out (30-day free trial?), very few will want to give it up.
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Smokey4141
Banned
FWIW, gloating is never a good look, but shorts are quiet.....because ~banning~ them....tends to do that...
Kinda simple, to be honest....
And eventually we learn it's just not worth the trouble.....
Good luck though!
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
I'm sure more details will be disclosed, but until then let's attempt to read between the lines and speculate about the sum:
- The exact wording in the FT was:
- "Fiat Chrysler Automobiles has agreed to pay Tesla hundreds of millions of euros so the electric carmaker’s vehicles are counted in its fleet in order to avoid large fines for breaking tough new EU emissions rules."
- "Analysts at Jefferies forecast FCA could face fines in excess of €2bn in 2021 when the new targets become law. "
- "Fiat Chrysler Automobiles has agreed to pay Tesla hundreds of millions of euros so the electric carmaker’s vehicles are counted in its fleet in order to avoid large fines for breaking tough new EU emissions rules."
- The Financial Times is owned by "The Nikkei" Japanese business media giant with opaque ownership - Japanese old money I suspect?
- The source of the story was FCA. To FCA this is probably a negative story, and they'd want to break it slowly, with a drip-drip of details.
- Tesla is probably under NDA until they must file financials. No big motivation for them to leak.
- "Hundreds of millions of euros" is 200m-900m. "Hundreds of" technically includes 200-999m, but above 500m the "more than half a billion" would be more appropriate.
- FCA's motivation is probably to downplay the figures: this is an extra cost. If it was only 200m then I'd expect them to leak that. If it was say 300m then they could say 'low hundreds of".
- FCA probably has no motivation to exaggerate the sum.
- Hence my guess: 400-600m euros, which is $450m-$670m.
- Less or more is possible as well, but I'd be surprised if it was below 300m: FCA would leak it immediately, plus it's too low compared to the looming 2 billion euros fine per year.
Speculation only. Not advice. Might have to eat crow.
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Time to disregard VIN's counts for this quarter ....
..fool me once .... fool me twice ...
Smokey4141
Banned
To be fair, it's more that "steady-state" demand is such that they lose money, rather than "no demand"....
And as such, they eventually run out of money...
When that actual point is, is much the debate.... I have no answer to that one myself...
It's pretty clear that the largest Board members are getting out as fast as they can, though.... So there's that....
It seems like there's is no sense of what time frame these payments are made. Couldn't they be spread out over years?
I'm sure more details will be disclosed, but until then let's attempt to read between the lines and speculate about the sum:
The big question: why keep this secret? It would come out in Tesla financials anyway.
- The wording in the FT was:
- "Fiat Chrysler Automobiles has agreed to pay Tesla hundreds of millions of euros so the electric carmaker’s vehicles are counted in its fleet in order to avoid large fines for breaking tough new EU emissions rules."
- "Analysts at Jefferies forecast FCA could face fines in excess of €2bn in 2021 when the new targets become law. "
- The Financial Times is owned by "The Nikkei" Japanese business media giant with opaque ownership - Japanese old money I suspect?
- The source of the story was FCA. To FCA this is probably a negative story, and they'd want to break it slowly, with a drip-drip of details.
- Tesla is probably under NDA until they must file financials. No big motivation for them to leak.
- "Hundreds of millions of euros" is 200m-900m. "Hundreds of" technically includes 200-999m, but above 500m the "more than half a billion" would be more appropriate.
- FCAs motivation is probably to downplay the figures: this is an extra cost. If it was only 200m then I'd expect them to leak that. If it was say 300m then they could say 'low hundreds of".
- FCA probably has no motivation to exaggerate the sum.
- Hence my guess: 400-600m euros, which is $450m-$670m.
- Less and more is possible, but I'd be surprised if it was below 300m: FCA would leak it immediately, plus it's too low compared to the looming 2 billion euros fine per year.
Speculation only. Not advice. Might have to eat crow.
420 000 000
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
"Duration" of the pool agreement is 2019 only.
Given that Tesla was the only game in town and that there was a hard March 22 deadline to form a pool, Tesla could set terms and insist on a lump sum. To FCA the timing of the payments is probably much less of a deal, and they could have extracted some discount over payment structure.
But we don't know for sure.
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So so true. The way machine learning works is that with the data and inferences/labelling that occurs early on there is only very rough 'intelligence' to the way humans would look at it. But as more refinement of both the data and the inferences/labelling occur there really is an exponential leap in accuracy and predictive capability. I think with 2019.8.5 and 2019.8.12 we are seeing that clearly cross that threshold. Once over it actually will accelerate in perceived accuracy and 'humanness' of the AI/for extended autopilot and more likely FSD features.
And yet you have made 2 posts in last 1/2 hr.
Contra indicator that SP goes up tomorrow .....
Hey, that’s considered a mini-van over here...
I would also think that once the channels of communications are opened up like this, for whatever reason, that there is a greater collaboration potential for Tesla to earn monies or factory production or whatever to help FCA become more Tesla-like. I know many aren't fond of Tesla being distracted on this but keep in mind that bringing/accelerating sustainable energy/transportation to the world is part of Tesla's mission and this would definitely help be yet another stage to the TSLA rocketship up. Less cap-ex if physical factories are shared, more cash-in, maybe even AP licensing provided none of these are without too much drag on Tesla though.
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