Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[FrANce]

How have people forgotten that we did get a big short burn after the Q3 ER?

Perhaps because no one mentioned it at the time, nor anytime soon after.

 

[KarenRei]

I have to disagree here. EM "promised" a burn of the century, larger than Volkswagen.
Volkaswagen was a fivefold within a few trading days. Q3 ER even wasn't an ATH.

He promised "larger than Volkswagen"? Really?

 

[CorneliusXX]

If they cannot agree by now, why will they agree by the 25th? Call the Judge.

It could be some gamesmanship. Tesla know the earnings report will be bad so they hold out on a point with the SEC until the day after the ER then agree terms to change the media narrative.

 

[lklundin]

Also note that 80%+ of the "EV" regulations are still skewed towards ICE carmaker profits:

• Hybrids and limited weird-mobiles with giggle-batteries often get similarly good incentives as well, under the disguise of being "electric".
• Emissions test cycles (defined by regulators as well) are nowhere near representative of everyday emissions. One of the dirty little secrets is that everyday ICE and hybrid driving uses a lot more fuel compared to the emissions test protocols than a BEV. This too benefits ICE makers.
• The various sales and registrations data often commingles hybrids under electric, creating a false impression of ICE makers being serious about EVs, when they still are not. By such sales data BMW is the leading EV maker in Europe. Really?

Many of the "EV incentives" actually hinder BEVs, because most of the incentives actually go towards maintaining the status quo, and go towards the incumbents playing for time.

The moment real EV incentives are introduced, which exclude all non-BEVs, you get rules like the 3.65m car length limit in Germany, which is just 4 cm shorter than the Model 3's 3.69m, or the Canadian EV incentives that include all ICE incumbents and excludes a single EV, the Model 3, made by EV-only maker Tesla ...

There's a few rays of hope like Norway and Iceland EV incentives, but in 90%+ of the ICE markets it's still regulatory capture, all the way down, and turtles.

So no, I'd not give most regulators too much credit, but I'd give ICE incumbents an extra score in ingenuity to commit another level of fraud by faking EV production.

Sorry to nit-pick, but the relevant car lengths are 4.65m and 4.69m...

 

[lklundin]

He promised "larger than Volkswagen"? Really?

Elon Musk's assertion that "Short burn of the century comin soon"(*) was in the same century as that of VW, so yes,
Elon Musk on Twitter

(*) Elon Musk time dilation applies.

 

[W84M3]

Germany's biggest coalition party is stating in public it will not take climate actions that where Tesla wins and current German auto industry loses instead of choosing the right path:

 

[KarenRei]

Elon Musk's assertion that "Short burn of the century comin soon"(*) was in the same century as that of VW, so yes,
Elon Musk on Twitter

(*) Elon Musk time dilation applies.

*facepalm*

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Ridiculous. I’ve owned TSLA since 2013 and also have a Model X. Bought more shares in the last 2 weeks. Buying the new refreshed Model S when it comes out.

Of course, any attempt to have a reasonable discussion on here about real world translation of Elon promises is met with comments like this.

“Spreading doubt” because AP is not yet compelling and Elon promises a lot. See FSD AP demo from 2016.

The problem with the word "compelling" is that it is relative to the individual's standards. Many, including myself, find autopilot compelling as it stands right now. So much so that we have gladly put our money where our mouth is. Those that only find it compelling when it is full level 5 and legal to use will not. So this becomes a pretty fruitless argument, especially with a big event 3 days away. No doubt that after the event even more people will find it compelling...and as it improves, more will...and as it improves, more will...etc etc etc.

Dan

 

[KarenRei]

Germany's biggest coalition party is stating in public it will not take climate actions that where Tesla wins and current German auto industry loses instead of choosing the right path:

View attachment 398491

I hope Tesla is making the message clear to German leaders that they need to choose between working with Tesla (e.g. GF3 in Germany) or fighting against Tesla - that they can't have it both ways. That they need to make up their minds, and soon.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

I remember he said to achieve FSD in 2 years, after another year people can sleep in the back. I'm sure it has been late than originally predicted, if it's achieved next year, the delay is not too bad from my point of view. Considering how difficult FSD is, I wouldn't be surprised if it takes longer.

...and if it takes 2 more or 3 more years, what difference does it make to the long term vision and the company's health and worth? Barring a thunderous announcement of progress from Waymo or the others, which I find highly unlikely, they will still be first to market. So, if you are looking for significant stock impact in the next 6 months, you may be out of luck. If you are in it for long term (5 years or more) growth and success, just sit back and enjoy the ride. In short..."If you don't like volatility, don't buy our stock". I think he summed it up pretty well with that statement.

Dan

 

[Dan Detweiler]

The mainstream financial media will LIE about the Q1 report no matter what it contains. Remember how in early October they falsely reported 2018Q3 production numbers as a 'miss' when in fact it was a 'beat', dropping the SP? Corrected hours or days later? But not before being reprinted in syndication by hundreds of media outlets. Those outlets do the damage, and they never print the retraction.

Then on Oct 26 at 2:00 pm (one day after the big beat on the 2018Q3 ER), and with TSLA up $31 intraday, the WSJ posted a fraudulent 'hit piece' that dropped the SP $20 in a few minutes. And the SP only slowly recovered, closing up only $16 for the day. That is two billion seven hundred sixty-eight million dollars ($2.768b) in Shareholder value destroyed in 2 hours by the fraudulent reporting by the WSJ.

Here is the daily chart from Oct 26, 2018:

View attachment 398402


2018Q3 ER was a surprise 'beat' so WSJ knowingly published a false story to 'engineer a dip' to help unnamed shortz exit their positions. This is fraud. The SEC remained silent.

Wall St is corrupt. The Wall St Urinal is their wholey pwned subsidiary. They have others.

Despicable behavior all around. The 1st Amendment right of "Freedom of the Press" should offer no more cover to WSJ criminals than "Freedom of Religion" protects predator priests.

Where is the DOJ? Enforce the law. Lock them up. Do we need to call the Hague? Or do we need to move TSLA off the US exchanges?

This criminality and racketeering can not be tolerated indefinately. The mission is too important.

THIS!!!

Dan

 

[Dan Detweiler]

This sounds more like a dog person to me.

Sound more like a single person to me! LOL!

Dan

 

[shlokavica22]

*facepalm*

Oh and uh short burn of the century comin soon. Flamethrowers should arrive just in time.

Short squeezes are more likely to occur in stocks with small market capitalization and small floats, although can involve large stocks and billions of dollars, as happened in October 2008 when a short squeeze temporarily drove the shares of Volkswagen on the Xetra DAX from €210.85 to over €1000 in less than two days, briefly making it the most valuable company in the world.

 

[KarenRei]

Germany's biggest coalition party is stating in public it will not take climate actions that where Tesla wins and current German auto industry loses instead of choosing the right path:

View attachment 398491

Reading the comments section (thanks, Google Translate) is a breath of fresh air.

CSU on Twitter

Most people are very unhappy with this stance. If anything, this sort of attitude may drive more sales to Tesla.

One of my favourite zings: "Do not worry. Their policies create a lot of jobs. In coastal protection, dike construction, flood control in general."

One posted a great visual image of what the party is trying to do: Jana on Twitter

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Does it also have fake tailpipes that occasionally emit puffs of black powder?

They should make a Diesel Fume air freshener. That way they can still get that immersive environment they so need. LOL!

Dan

 

[Sunlight]

As a Tesla/EV watcher (and smallish Tesla shareholder), I get a sense that we are ALL entering uncharted waters with little useful guidance – this is the beginning of real disruption but so much is unknown (I imagine even a analytical genius like Elon is guessing quite a lot – SpaceX must be more logical/predictable!)

There certainly are now some clear indicators:- EVs are the future but when is still unclear; Tesla is ahead of all others (at present); OEMs are having real trouble climbing aboard the helter skelter train ride but know that missing the boat (mixing metaphors there!) will sink them; China will not wait for the rest of the world to 'catch up' (and may the main source of cars in 10/20/30? years time); battery supply appears to be the current stumbling block; the socio-political feeling in the world is getting seriously pro-green tech (especially amongst the young) and politicians may force/assist the change.

AND there will be casualties along the way............

And there is still 90-95% of the car market up for grabs for EVs over the next few years/decades – demand issue??! Like hell......…

When and who will fill that void when it becomes unstoppable – Tesla/AN Other(s)?

All this has induced “desperation' as the stakes are so high. The shorts/anti-EV/Tesla-hostile crowd must have a nagging feeling that they've lost the war and it is really mopping up time (but they will try to delay the inevitable). The 'analysts' (especially the anti-EV/Tesla dickheads) just keep pouring out the same deceit/lies/BS to protect vested interests – this gets more difficult as other OEMs shift determinedly over to EVs (didn't Elon suggest this to VAG in the aftermath of the dieselgate nonsense?) Much of the drivel written by analysts barely covers their desperation...…….Onehorn; Speegle etc

But even the Tesla fanbois are showing agitation and concern – even some desperate postings appear from diehards. The bigger picture is too hazy and they feel that Elon has 'lost them money'. Tesla too has behaved with apparent 'desperation' – the whole stores saga; pricing all over the place; messed up logistics/service/communication/you-name-it and so on. (Fodder for the FUDsters)

But certainly I believe Tesla to be a better space than ever before (and 'unable' to go bankwupt – some one would step in for sure if the need arose). They are churning out desirable ever-improving cars and their future vehicles look promising. But I am not certain of the CURRENT level of steady state worldwide demand for the Model 3; S and X.......Not sure Tesla does either and it is playing it by ear.

But even if demand in the foreseeable future is only 7000 cars a year, this is a temporary state till (ironically) DEMAND ramps up and follows the S-curve. So I see that Tesla just needs to hang in there, continuously improving the cars and efficiency of their production whilst remaining solvent so that they are well placed to increase production as required to meet whatever the demand is in 2, 5 or 10 years time.

It's a high stakes game/business for sure..........”The times they are a-changing.....”

 

[shlokavica22]

I hope Tesla is making the message clear to German leaders that they need to choose between working with Tesla (e.g. GF3 in Germany) or fighting against Tesla - that they can't have it both ways. That they need to make up their minds, and soon.

They can't afford (politically) to chose Tesla. The German Auto industry is vital for the German economy. Many of their constituents will end up without jobs. Most likely they will make the "easy" choice and subsidize in some way the German trio.

Luckily for us, whatever choice they make, the result will be limited to Germany and TSLA will succeed despite their decisions.

 

[Fact Checking]

Sorry to nit-pick, but the relevant car lengths are 4.65m and 4.69m...

Indeed, I keep getting this wrong.

 

[Mich]

Oh and uh short burn of the century comin soon. Flamethrowers should arrive just in time.

Short squeezes are more likely to occur in stocks with small market capitalization and small floats, although can involve large stocks and billions of dollars, as happened in October 2008 when a short squeeze temporarily drove the shares of Volkswagen on the Xetra DAX from €210.85 to over €1000 in less than two days, briefly making it the most valuable company in the world.

He literally said "this will be bigger"
Elon Musk on Twitter

I'm quite sure that there was some event/news just about to be released which never happened. During that time the 5k/week was also a topic, but that was clear that it would never be larger than VW.

 

[Fact Checking]

Germany's biggest coalition party is stating in public it will not take climate actions that where Tesla wins and current German auto industry loses instead of choosing the right path:

View attachment 398491

Note that CSU is about ~6% of the vote, and in terms of ideology they are effectively the Republican Party of Germany, always as far right as possible to not be called Nazis yet. CSU voters are also very heavily concentrated in Bavaria, which makes the CSU owned by the German car industry, lock, stock and barrel in all but name.

So both ideologically and constituency wise it is entirely predictable that the CSU would support carmakers over supporting pesky little treehugger complaints like killing tens of thousands of people and inflicting billions of damages via irreversible emissions.