Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jbcarioca]

OT


Oh, it doesn't. I don't know why I try to explain things to people who don't want to learn; I think it's a compulsion.

Whether to tone it down or not is a tradeoff between the social value of "shut up because all you're doing is making other people angry at you, they don't want to hear it" and the value of having been the one who pointed out that the Emperor had no clothes, just in case someone was actually listening.

I'm always #2. Something in my brain makeup means I get zero mental reward for the first (and walk away angry at the stupidity and worthlessness of humanity) and some mental reward for the second (and I walk away feeling that at least I've done my duty, and humanity can go hang). Sense of responsibility probably.

Wow! You’ve finally lost me. Arrogance is often an indicator of lack of ability. As a self-described ‘major investor’ you should be aware of the dangers of hubris.

None of us have enough information to evaluate Tesla’s actual capabilities for FSD because there was not enough data to make authoritative judgements.

We do have strong opinions anyway. We should know the difference between opinion and fact.

Many of us on this forum are acutely aware of the difference between actual knowledge and osmosis from proximity to knowledge. Were mere proximity sufficient when coupled by curiosity I would be a mathematical biophysicist. Since that is not enough I am not.

Please,@neroden , cool it! You are dissipating hard-won credibility by pretending that you alone can solve it.

Mods: if I have crossed a line in the post please delete this post. I don’t intend it as an attack, but as a plea.

 

[mongo]

Eh, the Germans actually do it to an extent, especially with hybridization (where a smaller engine taken from the top performance model of a smaller vehicle can work adequately in a large vehicle) and with downsizing and turbocharging.

You can get the same 2.0 4-cylinder engine in a Mini Cooper S and a BMW 730i (although at different states of tune).

You used to be able to get the same 2.0 4-cylinder engine in an Audi A1 and an Audi A8 (although the A8 only had it with a hybrid system), and you can still get that engine in an Audi Q7 (in some markets, even without a hybrid system).

There is also some emphasis on modular engine families, though, especially with BMW - the 1.5 3-cylinder used in a base Mini and the 3.0 6-cylinder used in... basically everything BMW makes (as well as the aforementioned BMW 2.0 3-cylinder) is the same engine family.

That's actually a wider spread than Tesla's usage of one motor (not the whole powertrain) from a smaller luxury sedan (competing with the BMW 3 Series/Audi A4/Mercedes-Benz C-Class) in a larger luxury sedan (competing with 5/A6/E) and SUV (competing with X7 (X5 doesn't have three rows IIRC)/Q7/GLE). (However, the Semi is something else entirely. Roadster... well, the BMW i8 uses the 3-cylinder out of the Mini, but that's so not the same thing.)

How's this for a both on topic and off topic post:
350

The 5.7L GM engine of ubiquitousness and a stock price I hope we see again soon..

 

[Fact Checking]

Nice spec pump - yet I think it's a missed opportunity not to bundle it with the new interior and a slight exterior refresh.

That unnecessarily excludes addressable demand from customers who are perfectly fine and familiar with the current S/X interior but want a more future-proof power train, both in terms of performance and in terms of charging speed.

The $20k discount on Ludicrous for existing S/X owners is a nod and an offer to that class of owners to upgrade before the interior refresh. I expect the interior refresh to come in Q3 or so, so all owners that prefer a traditional interior but want everything else refreshed (including HW3) can take the offer in this quarter.

Ordering it this way maximizes total demand and total customer satisfaction, as I pointed it out back in January:

• It might even be possible to introduce a refreshed drive train that improves range and performance, rename the refreshed 100D to "Very Long Range" (380 miles) and the P100D to "Performance" (with acceleration improving to 2.2 secs from 2.3 secs, and range improving as well), and re-introduce the 85D battery pack with the new drive train as "Long Range". The advantage of this approach: they'd not have to touch battery pack assembly lines, if they otherwise preserved their 85 battery pack production capability.

I still think the 'interior refresh' will come after any battery/range refresh, because executing it in that order would capture the maximum amount of demand.

 

[nursebee]

https://www.quora.com/How-long-did-...awn-carriages-off-the-roads-in-favour-of-cars

 

[Boomer19]

https://www.quora.com/How-long-did-...awn-carriages-off-the-roads-in-favour-of-cars

funny and informative

 

[Fact Checking]

Feeling a lot better about the S/X refresh than the FSD demo. That's how you do it : take your strength and experience, improve on it beyond what a competitor can do and drop it on the market when you can actually deliver the goods. Well done.

I'm wondering why Tesla didn't do this refresh in Q1 - I expected them to do it, the Q1 demand hole in the S/X space was predicted and expected based on the removal of the 75D, which was 50% of demand and with the obvious direction of most of those budget constrained customers would take: Model 3 AWD or Performance.

Also, the removal of the 75D was effectively unannounced and on a very short notice, which minimized 'last chance' sales. Might chalk that up to bad PR and communications though.

Either they were surprised by the ~50% drop in S/X deliveries and Raven was simply not ready in time, or they expected it but wanted to combine the S/X power train refresh with the HW3 upgrade.

Today's ER will tell us exactly how big of a hit half of the S/X deliveries missing caused to the bottom line ...

 

[nursebee]

funny and informative

Yeah, it really is a fascinating read. Hx of lines being painted, electric cars.

 

[Fact Checking]

Drivetrain and other technology is shared between and transplanted to different vehicles or different construction year for the same model all the time by legacy constructors.

I see you are retreating into the tactic of moving the goal posts by adding two more qualifiers (price/interior) to make this situation unique. Good luck with that, but that's not the my point. Anything can be made unique, but you claimed it was amazing for which you provided no support.

You are right, and @bhtooefr gave a couple of examples as well - point conceded and sorry about the harsh tone!

 

[Dan Detweiler]

A personal general observation and request...

It seems to me that the events of the past several weeks have created a sizeable spike in the amount of posts attacking and criticizing each other for their take on any number of concerns and issues here on this thread. We are all here to follow and discuss the financial future and stock implications of Tesla. Many of us are owners. Many are not. Many have very early cars with a very different take on things. One of the things I love about this thread is the incredibly diverse pool of experiences it represents.

My request would be that we try to respect ALL of the opinions that are shared here so long as they are shared in a spirit of comradery, support, and informative education. Please notice that I expressly omitted any posts on here that slander, malign and are inflammatory simply because they differ from ones own view (or financial stake...hint, hint). I will certainly try to do the same.

The financial report coming out today will most probably have a significant impact on the short term and possibly long term stock price. People have different thoughts as to how exactly it will go down. My view is that it most definitely should be discussed here since that is what we are all here for. Let's please try to avoid the "I told you so" type posts. All that is going to do is piss people off. If that is your intent then I would suggest you go somewhere else. If that is not your intent then I would hope you would share your thoughts in a manner that would be respectful to those that perhaps were potentially harmed by the outcome. Try to pretend you are talking with your mother instead of someone you don't know...unless your mother happens to be a homicidal maniac, then maybe try to come up with someone else to pretend to be talking to. Anyway, I think you get my point.

No matter what happens with the financials today, the sun will come out tomorrow...unless you're in Iceland or some other nowhere country that never sees the sun ( @KarenRei ) lol!

Now, go sing a few strains of Kumbyah, and...

GET OFF MY LAWN!

Dan

 

[jerry33]

I wish Tesla was making a distinctive model for robotaxi work. I think there needs to be a clear distinction between a commercial vehicle and private auto. If Tesla succeeds in creating a 1 million car fleet mostly of Model 3. I think it will undermine the distinctiveness of privately owning a Model 3. Pride of ownership is easily lost when everyone thinks your ride is one of those robotaxis. I get that some folks will want to rent out their own Model 3. Okay, that's a choice. But why own it in the first place? Sure you could have bought the tux you rented for your cousin's wedding, and you could keep renting it out, but who wants to privately own a rental tux? I used to think that owning a Tesla was pretty special. Now I'm told I've got an old horse.

If that's a real concern, you go and buy and S, X, or Pickup. Or a Roadster2

 

[mekberg]

I'm wondering why Tesla didn't do this refresh in Q1 - I expected them to do it, the Q1 demand hole in the S/X space was predicted and expected based on the removal of the 75D, which was 50% of demand and with the obvious direction of most of those budget constrained customers would take: Model 3 AWD or Performance.

Also, the removal of the 75D was effectively unannounced and on a very short notice, which minimized 'last chance' sales. Might chalk that up to bad PR and communications though.

Either they were surprised by the ~50% drop in S/X deliveries and Raven was simply not ready in time, or they expected it but wanted to combine the S/X power train refresh with the HW3 upgrade.

Today's ER will tell us exactly how big of a hit half of the S/X deliveries missing caused to the bottom line ...

Is it possible they knew Q1 would be bad due to pull-forward demand and spent this time tooling up for Raven?

 

[mekberg]

Dry powder loaded. Trying to figure out if I want to play the MMD today or wait until after earnings. FOMO and fear duking it out in my brain right now.

 

[Boomer19]

Wow! You’ve finally lost me. Arrogance is often an indicator of lack of ability. As a self-described ‘major investor’ you should be aware of the dangers of hubris.

None of us have enough information to evaluate Tesla’s actual capabilities for FSD because there was not enough data to make authoritative judgements.

We do have strong opinions anyway. We should know the difference between opinion and fact.

Many of us on this forum are acutely aware of the difference between actual knowledge and osmosis from proximity to knowledge. Were mere proximity sufficient when coupled by curiosity I would be a mathematical biophysicist. Since that is not enough I am not.

Please,@neroden , cool it! You are dissipating hard-won credibility by pretending that you alone can solve it.

Mods: if I have crossed a line in the post please delete this post. I don’t intend it as an attack, but as a plea.

i understand where you’re coming from. on the other hand, i don’t think it’s malicious, though.
my point of view on all this is slightly different. i work with a couple dozen engineers and mathematicians who converse similarly to n’s style.
it took a bit of time to get used to being indicated as (or outright called) stupid.
but most of the time they were right during those projects, because i didn’t understand the nuts and bolts...i was more big picture need, rather then describe the problem and logistical workflow.
as my role has grown, the conversations are different, mostly. but we still throw punches at times. and sometimes they still need to be backed the F off when they go too far with their condescendence. same as them wanting to choke me for being erratic and veering off course during a meeting...
so i guess that’s where some of us are at, which is understandable.
but in my examples, although we irritate the heck out of each other at work... i break bread with, and toast drinks, they are my friends...even though i still want to walk over to their office and headbutt them at times.

we’re all kinda dicky in our own way. that’s whats welcoming, for me, about this forum. theres spunk to it.

 

[EVNow]

Here is the expectation as of today according to MarketWatch.

Earnings: Analysts polled by FactSet expect Tesla to report an adjusted loss of $1.15 a share. That would compare with an adjusted loss of $3.35 a share in the first quarter of 2018 and a GAAP and an adjusted per-share profit in the two previous quarters.

Estimize, a crowdsourcing platform that gathers estimates from Wall Street analysts as well as buy-side analysts, fund managers, company executives, academics and others, seems to believe in a small profit for the company, expecting a loss of 78 cents a share.

Revenue: The analysts surveyed by FactSet are expecting quarterly revenue of $5.4 billion, up from $3.4 billion in the year-ago quarter. The Estimize forecast is for $5.9 billion.
​

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Ford to invest $500 million in electric truck maker Rivian

Embrace?

 

[DocZ]

I have found it frustrating to watch these electric start ups get funding from strategic partnerships. Great for EVs I’m general, but how is somebody like Apple not investing a little into Tesla? The stock would skyrocket.

 

[mekberg]

Embrace?

This reads like a hedge to me.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

I wish Tesla was making a distinctive model for robotaxi work. I think there needs to be a clear distinction between a commercial vehicle and private auto. If Tesla succeeds in creating a 1 million car fleet mostly of Model 3. I think it will undermine the distinctiveness of privately owning a Model 3. Pride of ownership is easily lost when everyone thinks your ride is one of those robotaxis. I get that some folks will want to rent out their own Model 3. Okay, that's a choice. But why own it in the first place? Sure you could have bought the tux you rented for your cousin's wedding, and you could keep renting it out, but who wants to privately own a rental tux? I used to think that owning a Tesla was pretty special. Now I'm told I've got an old horse.

Better get 'em while their hot. I have seen a couple of different videos that bring up an interesting thought. At what point does Tesla not sell cars to the public anymore? Granted this is based on several rather large assumptions, but if true Level 5 is achieved, and the Tesla Network truly does come to pass, and Tesla has created a huge fleet of corporate owned cars through lease returns, and their profit margins on the network use is what Elon claimed they could be at the Autonomy Day, then why would they want the hassle and turmoil that surrounds selling cars to the public? The profits from the network would be so huge that it would seem beneficial to just make cars without pedals or steering wheel and just make them as they needed to supplement their network fleet. Same goes for the truck. Make a truck that is nothing but a rolling bed with no cab whatsoever and then just put them on the network so people could use them as they need to haul something, get lumber, whatever you do with a truck. Tesla Semi? Boy, what could that do to the trucking industry if there were just a bunch of Tesla Semis out there for rent as shipping companies, or even private people needed to use them.

Might not be able to buy a Tesla at some point. I know...crazy, but it could happen. Something to think about.

Dan

 

[Pras]

I see so much fear and doubt going into this earning call. Somehow I am holding on and am at ease (perhaps made up my mind that I won’t sell until it goes to under 220).

 

[sparcs]

I have found it frustrating to watch these electric start ups get funding from strategic partnerships. Great for EVs I’m general, but how is somebody like Apple not investing a little into Tesla? The stock would skyrocket.

I don't think Tesla would be willing to give up that much control. Apple would want their app system to take over a Tesla so that Tesla just makes the hardware.