Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ggr]

On topic anecdote regarding the Ford investment in Rivian. When I worked at Qualcomm, a more senior guy I worked closely with was assigned to work on a Q-Ford telematics joint venture called Wingcast. It failed in 2002, a year or two later. Wingcast Joint Venture Company in Telematics to Dissolve | Qualcomm

I can't begin to tell you how scathing my colleague was about Ford. For example (assuming I recall correctly) the layout of buttons on the dashboard was set in stone 5 years in advance. Screen? Forget it. So they started thinking about basic voice recognition, but this was when Dragon Dictate was the best available, and it wasn't just able to sit there waiting for you to say "Hey Taurus...". It needed a button to start it listening. (Hmmm, sounds familiar...). "NO, you can't have a button. How about you simultaneously press the 1 and 5 preset buttons on the radio? That sounds like something no-one would do by accident." (Or intentionally...)

I had high hopes for Rivian. Now I'm pretty sure they're cactus.

 

[Majorgroove]

I think that Tesla has absorbed all HW3 capable inventory into a TN, it will be the one more thing, TN starts today.

TN?

 

[claudelaval]

I was able to see the Tesla ridesharing app from a Tesla employee at the event. It's much better than the screenshots in the presentation. The app actually shows all the local Tesla cars on the map (like Uber/Lyft) app and then you can "summon" the car and see the car coming to your location. After you finish using the car, there's a "Return car" button.

all vapourware...

 

[T@oo]

TN?

Tesla Network

 

[SebastianR]

OT: Since TSLA is shot for the day anyways (ugh - I really want to see some green for once) and we are vastly OT anyways, why not wonder if hell has frozen over?

Edit: Tesla Model 3 vs BMW M3: new issue of TG magazine out now!

Electric beats petrol. A bold statement on the front of the freshly-redesigned Top Gear magazine, but one that proved true this month.

You see, back in 2018, Elon Musk tweeted that the Tesla Model 3 Performance would beat anything in its class on a track. He even namechecked the mighty BMW M3 – a bold move.

Naturally then, we tried to call Elon’s bluff. That meant grabbing both cars and heading to Thunderhill Raceway in northern California. You know the outcome, but if you want to find out just how David’s EV slayed Goliath you’ll need to pick up this month’s issue.

 

[ggr]

If she is already pregnant why would you need a baby capsule ?
Or is it something other than a birth control pill ?

In case you're serious, that's what we called things with handles that you could put the baby in, carry them around, and put into the car so they would be safe. I have no idea what you call them now.

 

[Intl Professor]

I remember a 2nd year university project I did over 10 years ago where we had to construct a 3d model from a pair of stereo images. It was pretty straight forward - plug some matching points into matrix algebra. I'm sure 3d modelling from images is even more of a solved problem by now. Given Tesla's 3 forward facing cameras and radar, it's one of the easier parts of FSD. I was wondering about how they do depth on side and reverse cameras where there is no radar and camera overlap.

An earlier post by someone who had penetrated Tesla code suggested each camera took an image slightly after. That could permit calculation of depth and speed, I would think. No one has mentioned this recently, but I'm skipping tens of pages now.

 

[jerry33]

all vapourware...

I recall when a certain well known commentators said that Tesla couldn't possibly make the Model S, that it was just vapourware and Tesla would fail before it could ever be done.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Nothing that I read by Elon during Q1 convinces me a loss is expected. Wording was very carefully chosen, and if you believe he's setting up the squeeze now, like I do, his words were spot on.
Then I just had lunch at the airport in Houston, and this was my fortune cookie. No lie.

 

[Anstandswauwau]

I meant RHD.

Sure.

Source:

Countries That Drive on the Left Side of the Road

"In total, there are 76 countries and territories that follow left-hand traffic laws -- or 34 percent of the world's population."​

Yes, but that's not what you've said originally:

• Tesla still doesn't ship RHD units (30% of all cars in the world are RHD)

Looking at those RHD countries, I highly doubt that RHD countries make up a third of the global car market. I couldn't find any numbers, but my gut feeling tells me it should be somewhere between 10-20%. Now if we're talking Model 3 price class, it's already way lower.

RHD S/X sales are about 10% of the total, but that's mostly a function of higher purchase power of LHD co with the much lower Model 3 ASP I'd expect a shift back towards the 34% population weight - 15-20% of all Model 3 sales could be RHD in the long run?

(And I don't want to be that guy but I couldn't verify your 10%-claim after a quick investigation. Do you have a source for that data point? Thanks.)

Also, again, looking at those RHD countries, I think it'd be foolish to naïvely extrapolate M3 sales like you just did:

Model S & X are in the luxury vehicles segment which is relatively intact throughout the world; in short, even poorer countries have their top n percent earners being wealthy enough for a purchase of MS or MX.

M3 however, is in a lower segment that correlates – relative to population size – with the mean or median GDP PPP (depending on what expert you'll ask). And those numbers are not so hot for your average RHD country.

So, yeah, if you ask me, RHD countries will, in the end, accommodate for 7.5 - 12.5% of M3 WW sales – a far cry from your original claim, which IMO heavily suggested that the M3 is currently missing out on 30% of its addressable market.

 

[Fact Checking]

I suppose my point was that I can see why reasonable people (excluding those with a pre-determined agenda on both sides) can reach different conclusions on the "demand constrained" vs "production constrained" question.

How about what I said:

"Model 3 is cell supply limited, while S/X was demand limited in Q1 due to dropping the 75D and not offering a refresh for 4 months"?​

which resolves most of the contradictions you mentioned?

 

[Anstandswauwau]

Options are a hell of a drug. Beware!

Options – not even once.

 

[lklundin]

Average well above 300! Does that make me a very "long and strong long", or just a stupid long?

- for the first time, I find myself wishing my strength would be more ... average.

 

[EVDRVN]

Nothing that I read by Elon during Q1 convinces me a loss is expected. Wording was very carefully chosen, and if you believe he's setting up the squeeze now, like I do, his words were spot on.
Then I just had lunch at the airport in Houston, and this was my fortune cookie. No lie.

If you touch a fortune cookie to a baltic brown granite counter it is good luck.

 

[Big Blue 1011]

How about what I said:

"Model 3 is cell supply limited, while S/X was demand limited in Q1 due to dropping the 75D and not offering a refresh for 4 months"?​

which resolves most of the contradictions you mentioned?

Since today is my birthday and I want everybody to be happy, my answer is an unequivocal yes as to both.

(We can revisit the cell supply theory tomorrow)

 

[Mkorpal]

Nothing that I read by Elon during Q1 convinces me a loss is expected. Wording was very carefully chosen, and if you believe he's setting up the squeeze now, like I do, his words were spot on.
Then I just had lunch at the airport in Houston, and this was my fortune cookie. No lie.View attachment 400240

I like your optimism. If Tesla manages a profit, well, they would have pulled off the impossible.

 

[SOULPEDL]

My brother just bought an M3 base model with FSD today. (Get this... he forgot about my referal code and can't change it.)
Anyway, I bet the Tesla sales pitch is working with many others as well. He's the brother who lost all his money on Tesla options, so he plans to Uber his way through the payments... for now. Strong indicator even though just 1 data point.

 

[Dylan]

I decided to sell some of my shares since sentiment seems sooo negative that I don't believe that even a report of small profit tonight will give the SP a boost.

Seems like we need a steady outlook of strong demand and a "proven" solution of FSD before this turns around.

So sad…

 

[ggr]

You seem to be overlooking the fact that Tesla is always iterating on the core technology and seldom waits for some arbitrary date or announcement to push through product improvements. A power train enhancement is also trivial to implement on the assembly line relative to an overhauled interior. These improvements also serve to enhance the already incredible value of the S/X. The mantra at Tesla has always been “if you can do better today, don’t wait until tomorrow.” Sometimes I wonder how sentiment would’ve shifted about S/X if Fred hadn’t leaked the “imminent” interior refresh last year...

I don't agree that a change to the power train with entirely new suspension and a new front motor (different form factor entirely) is "trivial to implement". I think this change probably accounts for some of the lack of S/X production last quarter, while the lines were shut down and robots re-trained and brought back up to speed.

 

[Heimdallr]

I decided to sell some of my shares since sentiment seems sooo negative that I don't believe that even a report of small profit tonight will give the SP a boost.

Seems like we need a steady outlook of strong demand and a "proven" solution of FSD before this turns around.

So sad…

Disagree. Sentiment is so negative any surprises to the upside might have a big effect. Doesn't even need to be a profit just a smaller than expected loss or some major progress in some areas.