CyberDutchie
Active Member
I like how Elon is asking his team to confirm his estimates
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Dan Detweiler
Active Member
Ok, I'll tell you now. I am retiring at the end of May. Hopefully that won't screw with the stock price too much.
Dan
Frankly, this could be a big thing. They KNOW how you drive, they know WHERE and WHEN you drive. They KNOW where the car is at all times. They could probably tie this into the REPAIRS side of the business. So, it could be an opportunity to deliver something much better than in the marketplace and/or take some of that profit away from insurance co’s.
Ultimately, I’d like to see some creative features like TURN OFF TURN ON pricing and options. They will know if the car is active or not, and can re-enable on demand. At that point, it’s only having insurance exactly when you need it.
US deliveries, another Fed EV rebate cut coming in June.
10K in transit from Q1 already in EU/CN
Wonder if they’re experimenting with providing insurance as a loss leader strategy.
My investment thesis is that Q1 was the low point for a while but I still want them to raise capital to up their cash balance.
bdy0627
Active Member
We're always looking at a bright future here at TMC. It sure was fun to have a couple of bright quarters last year though.
dc_h
Active Member
Glass half full:
To me it looks like they packed as much bad news into this earnings release as they could. I thought they would try to add some ZEV or recognize the FCA revenue, but they seemed to take no optional revenue sources and have taken all possible write downs. Some of those write downs could not be avoided, due to price reductions, but it didn't seem that all the lease write downs all had to be done in Q1. If deliveries really pick up like they are saying revenue and profit should improve significantly going forward. They just need to tough out the hate campaign, maintain the brand image and keep plugging away on the new products and FSD. Even if FSD is 2021, 2020 should be very profitable.
Glass half empty:
I guess my dream of the stock firing up to $406 after earnings is not going to happen!
To me it looks like they packed as much bad news into this earnings release as they could. I thought they would try to add some ZEV or recognize the FCA revenue, but they seemed to take no optional revenue sources and have taken all possible write downs. Some of those write downs could not be avoided, due to price reductions, but it didn't seem that all the lease write downs all had to be done in Q1. If deliveries really pick up like they are saying revenue and profit should improve significantly going forward. They just need to tough out the hate campaign, maintain the brand image and keep plugging away on the new products and FSD. Even if FSD is 2021, 2020 should be very profitable.
Glass half empty:
I guess my dream of the stock firing up to $406 after earnings is not going to happen!
Perhaps Autonomy day was a prelude to self delivering cars
Now very close call btw Gigafactory and Fremont for Model Y production
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Also, Sentry Mode could record most vehicle damage, there would be 7 camera 360 degrees accident footage from Autopilot video capture, massively reducing insurance fraud, false claim losses and litigation costs and risks.
Tesla has access to data no other insurance company has, and could in principle revolutionize underwriting costs, while reaping market rates that the other, high overhead insurance companies set. They'd also reap the benefits of insuring only the safest vehicles on the planet.
Tesla also has their own body shops - Tesla Insurance could send small fender-bender repairs there. They could bundle Tesla Leasing with Tesla Insurance, etc.
Haven't thought it all through yet, but this sounds better for short term finances than robotaxis, as owner satisfaction with Tesla is very high. This could draw in a lot of existing owners if the rates are good.
It's also relatively immune to FUD: Tesla Insurance targets existing owners.
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Exactly. I loaded up at 260 because the overall expectations were so low that even a real bad earnings report would likely make TSLA go green. Remember it's already dropped from 300-ish due to expectations of this report.
Luckily the report is not that bad. Liability and debt is not going up, it's going down. 2.2B in cash reserves. Lot of Q1 deliveries are in transit eg paid for but not sold.
S/X lower sales was expected, and also partially because a strategic mistake from Tesla (announcing Supercharger v3 and 250 kW charging on M3 months before ready on S/X, should've software capped then and kept mouth shut until May). I expect this to pick up. Sales could be much lower due to tax credit end, but it isn't.
Yet to see how market responds tommorow on opening, but I think people will be overall relieved.
Doggydogworld
Active Member
Deciding whether Model Y should be in NV or CA. I called that one (and got some hate for it...).
Outlook based on what a great value SR+ is plus their expectation people were waiting for rumored S/X upgrade. Also seasonality and RHD. I'm hearing expectations vs. actual current order rates.
EDIT: there was also something about inventory write downs depressing S/X revenue. That may be making the numbers look worse than I expected.
Outlook based on what a great value SR+ is plus their expectation people were waiting for rumored S/X upgrade. Also seasonality and RHD. I'm hearing expectations vs. actual current order rates.
EDIT: there was also something about inventory write downs depressing S/X revenue. That may be making the numbers look worse than I expected.
Why is Fremont possible for Model Y?
Elon: Can append building space to west side of building and use internal space used for warehousing.
Elon: Can append building space to west side of building and use internal space used for warehousing.
10% more yes I would to support the company. Beyond that they would have to offer some great reason to switch, for example faster repair since that is a known issue.
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