Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[RobStark]

That, that, that is astonishing!

Precision in chemical engineering is always a hard problem, a problem I know that China struggles with. Chinese drug companies can't produce generic drugs with the same effectiveness. So poor Chinese people are forced to buy imports with sky high prices. The imprecision is the leading cause of battery cell quality problem.

I did not know everybody struggles with it. I suspect LG and Samsung are probably at the same level. I guess the 30% scrap rate is due to the fact that Tesla has a higher acceptance standard and pretty good quality verification system. Other EV builders are probably forced to eat the lower quality cells, leading to the low efficiency in their offerings.

As long as cells are safe, shouldn't Tesla install these less efficient/energy dense cells in large commercial power packs where space is not at a premium?

 

[SW2Fiddler]

"I'm happy to post my returns against Mr. Chanos any time he wants."

LOL

Wait, that was Wapner? He who coined the phrase "Poor Jim Chanos" in the Linette Lopez "square assembly line" video?
Wasn't he schoolmates or something with Poor Jim? Because I didn't see that disclosed ANYWHERE in the CNBC written article.

 

[powertoold]

Uber: ~90 billion, no ecosystem, no loyalty, no physical products

Tesla: 40 billion

 

[Anstandswauwau]

Looking at today's stock price, what are the catalysts that bring a rebound? At this point, we need a 25% gain to get back to 300.

Sustainable profit for 2-3 consecutive quarters.

 

[Artful Dodger]

As long as cells are safe, shouldn't Tesla install these less efficient/energy dense cells in large commercial power packs where space is not at a premium?

The trade-off in Auto vs Storage applications is power density vs cycle life. Telsa uses NCA chemistry in its auto applications for its superior power density and faster recharging rates. Tesla uses NMC chemistry for energy storage products like Powerwall and Powerpack for its superior life span (number of charge/recharge cycles to a given loss of capacity).

Why Tesla's grid batteries will use two different chemistries

"An NCA battery typically has a shorter cycle life and a higher energy density (and less stability). ... But an NMC battery also typically has a lower cost of energy because of the ability of an NMC battery to cycle with more stability than an NCA battery" (May 18, 2015)​

 

[Wooloomooloo]

@woomooloo
then be a lot more specific
You clearly impled that Tesla would lose at least a 7 year, vertically integrated technological advantage, becoming a minor player
however, i gracefully accept your explanation, although it is a tiny bit confusing
I think your definition of "minor player" morphed into Tesla sells 49.9% of all comparable EV's, _all_ the other companies combined sell 50.1% comparables. yet selll not a minor player, if you had said 5% or 7%

I never said "minor player" I said "a minority of EV's" - a minority is less than 50% by definition. I never said anything about them losing a 7 year technological advantage, or remotely implied it. Your inference is wrong.

I need to update my spreadsheets, but with 100% electrics for first 9-10 months of 2018 (soonest)
competition has a long ways to go, and Tesla is accelerating

I don't know what you're talking about to be honest... your original post has vanished and your Mac version of Office is out of date. Time for a cup of tea?

 

[jerry33]

I never said "minor player" I said "a minority of EV's" - a minority is less than 50% by definition. I never said anything about them losing a 7 year technological advantage, or remotely implied it. Your inference is wrong.

So basically your hypothesis is that most people will purchase an inferior car, or are you assuming the number of Fiat 500 EV size cars will be the majority of sales (possible in Europe and Asia)?

 

[winfield100]

I never said "minor player" I said "a minority of EV's" - a minority is less than 50% by definition. I never said anything about them losing a 7 year technological advantage, or remotely implied it. Your inference is wrong.



I don't know what you're talking about to be honest... your original post has vanished and your Mac version of Office is out of date. Time for a cup of tea?

@Wooloomooloo
the last Mac I had was an Apple IIE in the ?1990's? with i think AceCalc, so not sure what u are talking abt.

 

[CorneliusXX]

From the 2019Q1 Conference Call: (the very last question)

Colin Rusch -- Oppenheimer -- Analyst

Okay. And then as you look at the Maxwell Technology integration, post close, how quickly do you think you'll be able to integrate that technology into the battery production? And could you comment on potential for chemistry and form factor changes as that gets integrated?

Elon R. Musk -- Chief Executive Officer

I mean, you're really asking some super secret sauce questions here. Yeah. I think, we'll have -- I think we'll probably have an Investor Day like we have an Autonomy Day maybe later this year or early next just to go over the cell and battery technology and future strategy. And I think that will be very informative, but we do recognize the criticality of this.
​

That is a nice hint drop.

 

[Wooloomooloo]

So basically your hypothesis is that most people will purchase an inferior car, or are you assuming the number of Fiat 500 EV size cars will be the majority of sales (possible in Europe and Asia)?

That is an absurd inference - I originally used the example to illustrate why Maxwell would be better off with the merger, not as a criticism of Tesla... now I am being asked to defend an assumption that Tesla won't maintain a 51% or better market share in EVs forever.

No, my hypothesis is that eventually (9,000 years from now) all of Tesla's competitors combined will be more than 50% of the market.

Why the **** would anyone bother arguing against that?

 

[AMN]

Sustainable profit for 2-3 consecutive quarters.

They posed great numbers in Q3 and WS didn't give a damn, so F* profitability. I want them to be cashflow positive and reinvest. The rest will sort itself out.

 

[Late2theGame]

Late2theGame said: ↑
Chamath's interview:
Google Drive said too many downloads, wait 24 hours ...

Is there another copy of the full one hour?

Thanks

Downloaded for me, no problem.

This is what I get:

Sorry, you can't view or download this file at this time.

Too many users have viewed or downloaded this file recently. Please try accessing the file again later. If the file you are trying to access is particularly large or is shared with many people, it may take up to 24 hours to be able to view or download the file. If you still can't access a file after 24 hours, contact your domain administrator.​

Hmm

 

[SO16]

BTW (if anybody is watching the SP today) the $3 drop at 2:25 pm as likely precipitated by a Washington Post 'boo-scare' OpEd proposing Pres Trump pay for the new $2B infrastructure bill by taxing Tesla (ISYN).

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/05/01/how-should-we-pay-our-roads-tax-teslas/

Uh....in Michigan I pay $200 more per year in registration fees which is to cover gas taxes. The average gas guzzling SUV pays less in gas taxes than I do.

 

[Curt Renz]

Wait, that was Wapner? He who coined the phrase "Poor Jim Chanos" in the Linette Lopez "square assembly line" video?
Wasn't he schoolmates or something with Poor Jim? Because I didn't see that disclosed ANYWHERE in the CNBC written article.

Wapner promotes each upcoming visit to his set by Tesla short seller Chanos as if it would be the second coming of a messiah. When Chanos appears, Wapner applauds rather than challenges any comments. Yesterday Wapner appeared to be parroting Chanos' anti-Tesla arguments, and then seemed upset with Palihapitiya for dismissing them. When Wapner cut off the interview, his disgust with Pailhaptiya was rather evident.

 

[The Blue Owl]

I don't know if this has been posted but it is exceptional:

Elon Musk: Tesla Autopilot | Artificial Intelligence (AI) Podcast

 

[dmckinstry]

OT


I'm hanging onto my 2013 until it goes to a museum. (Actually, I may actually donate it to a museum if I can find a suitable one. I may have the last one which wasn't upgraded to v9 software, which makes it a valuable museum piece. Interested museums which will agree to not update the software, and maintain it as an example of Tesla's old software, may contact me. )

I'll be donating my 2013 to my youngest daughter as soon as the SP goes high enough to pay for a new Model X.

 

[TheMrX]

Is it me or this just disapeared from the TSLA yahoo finance newsfeed?

Tesla sneaks past Canada EV incentive law with cheap 93-mile-range Model 3

 

[RobStark]

Works for me. I am in under $2 a share. I am perfectly willing to wait. Maxwell has a lot more eyeballs on the company and its technology thanks to Tesla's offer.

And Maxwell's board shopped themselves around before accepting Tesla's offer and there were no other offers.

There are no other offers.

Maxwell said they had a partner they have been working with the last two years.

Given these facts it seems Tesla is that partner and knows how to take Maxwell's ideas to mass production.

No one else does, hence to competing offers.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

That is an absurd inference - I originally used the example to illustrate why Maxwell would be better off with the merger, not as a criticism of Tesla... now I am being asked to defend an assumption that Tesla won't maintain a 51% or better market share in EVs forever.

No, my hypothesis is that eventually (9,000 years from now) all of Tesla's competitors combined will be more than 50% of the market.

Why the **** would anyone bother arguing against that?

Ok, I think it’s pretty obvious the posters replying to you read your “minority” as meaning “minor”, rather than just literally <50% of all sales.

Can we all just move on?

 

[EVNow]

Hypothetically, to address your questions, well I don't think Tesla will maintain >50% market share in EV sales indefinitely and so Maxwell would have other markets to sell to eventually, if they last that long.

The "market" is battery makers, not EV makers. So, that means Chinese & Korean companies. Good luck with that.