Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ClimateOptimst]

With regards to Pier 80, Q2 is so far a bit behind Q1, fourth ship is at Pier 80 28 days into the quarter 13 days after the quarter's first ship arrival. In Q1 the fourth ship arrived at Pier 80 23 days in to the quarter, 12 days after the quarter's first ship.

So it's a bit early to say, but there is some indication that domestic versus overseas deliveries are more balanced in Q2.

Q2's fourth ship is believed to be headed for EU, for a 50/50 split with China.

Tesla Carriers

- with thanks to Franco Mossotto (@FMossotto) | Twitter

probably they want to give NA a bit more love this Q with the US tax credit set to decrease by 50% from the current $3750 at the end of June.

 

[sparcs]

Looking at today's stock price, what are the catalysts that bring a rebound? At this point, we need a 25% gain to get back to 300.

The only ones I can see are both much later this year: China factory completion and full self-driving feature teases.

Step 1: Meet their Production/Delivery guidance for Q2 which will be released in the first week of July.
Step 2: Meet their earnings guidance for Q2 which will be released at the end of July.
Step 3: Rinse and Repeat. Do the same thing for Q3.

They just need to execute. The biggest factor that is overhanging the stock is that Q1 went from a profit to a loss and then a pretty bad loss once we found about S/X production. It all fed into the short and media hysteria which are in full swing now.

They don't need FSD or the Shanghai factory to meet their guidance for Q2 and Q3.

 

[Navin]

Wapner promotes each upcoming visit to his set by Tesla short seller Chanos as if it would be the second coming of a messiah. When Chanos appears, Wapner applauds rather than challenges any comments. Yesterday Wapner appeared to be parroting Chanos' anti-Tesla arguments, and then seemed upset with Palihapitiya for dismissing them. When Wapner cut off the interview, his disgust with Pailhaptiya was rather evident.

Towards the end around the 7:10 minute mark of the clip - Wapner actually says “we” are betting against... a little bit of a slip of the tongue.


He is close with chanos. Just google Wapner and Jim Chanos and see all the results. This popped up, btw when I did the same.
Interesting reporter - interesting collection of folks she interviewed.

What Jim Chanos, David Einhorn, Scott Wapner And More Can't Wait To Eat On Thanksgiving


Honestly - can someone share one good reason why CNBC / Wapner edited the clip and didn’t let it show online until much later after the big fuss over it? Why would they intentionally do that??

I feel like there will eventually be some sort of scooby doo finale to all of this and we will see what sort of entities are supporting this nonsense.

 

[Wooloomooloo]

Ok, I think it’s pretty obvious the posters replying to you read your “minority” as meaning “minor”, rather than just literally <50% of all sales.

Can we all just move on?

Yes.

The "market" is battery makers, not EV makers. So, that means Chinese & Korean companies. Good luck with that.

Good luck with what? Tesla should definitely keep their battery market lead for the foreseeable future.

 

[LJS22]

In good news Tesla keeps selling out of All weather floor mats on the model 3 haha I assume that’s a good correlation

 

[Remus]

Wapner promotes each upcoming visit to his set by Tesla short seller Chanos as if it would be the second coming of a messiah. When Chanos appears, Wapner applauds rather than challenges any comments. Yesterday Wapner appeared to be parroting Chanos' anti-Tesla arguments, and then scowled at Palihapitiya for dismissing them. When Wapner cut off the interview, his disgust with Pailhaptiya was rather evident.

Maybe I am dreaming but when Wapner said "the competition is coming", he took a quick breath in and used his chest for a little echo effect, giving it a dramatic effect. I was quite impressed. I don't know whether LeBeau told him about "the boy who cried wolves" story or now.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

0 inventory Model 3’s(of any spec) available within 200 miles of my location(SF Bay Area). Down from 27 on Monday and 4 yesterday.

 

[KarenRei]

I am guessing most of this is going to happen from units produced in Shanghai's GF3?

GF3 is only for Greater China (China, Taiwan, Macau, Singapore). Everywhere else is GF1/Fremont. Eventually GF4 will serve Europe.

As for when things will happen when:

UK/Ireland: June
Other major RHD countries (Australia, New Zealand, Japan): Unsure - has anyone heard whether they'll be June like the UK/Ireland, or are they later?
Iceland: Seems to be targeting a couple months from now.
E. Europe: Some places adjacent to their current markets seem to be targeting a couple months from now, although it looks like it'll be quite a while before they cover all of E. Europe.
Brazil, India: I seem to recall them talking about targeting next year for them. Both very large car markets (with enough wealth disparity to provide for a sizeable middle class), but both are relatively raw ground for EVs.
Russia: Good-sized market, but I haven't seen a target date.
S. Korea: Haven't seen a date, but I'd imagine that it shouldn't be too long from now; it's a pretty solid EV market with big ambitions.
Middle East: Tesla already has operations in a few countries, but no Model 3s yet, and I haven't seen dates for when they'll be arriving. They apparently got permission to open operations in Saudi Arabia late last year. Car sales volumes are only moderate in the big Middle East markets, but ASPs are high.
Rest of the world: Seems like they're targeting ~2 years or so from now. The numerous small markets in lower-income countries will have a lot of overhead relative to the number of sales.

 

[Beaver]

Another new service center:
David Kenney on Twitter

They maybe should have mentioned that they are fixing the service issue on the last call??? That is one thing that holds some people back from buying. This company needs to communicate better.

 

[AlMc]

I believe Tesla will have to sweeten the deal (with no sale delay) or pay us cash. Then they can have my shares.

I also have considerable amount in Maxwell. (MXWL). My shares are for sale today. Cash or TSLA....Ok with either....If the deal does not go through the SP of MXWL goes sub $3.

 

[KarenRei]

0 inventory Model 3’s(of any spec) available within 200 miles of my location(SF Bay Area). Down from 27 on Monday and 4 yesterday.

 

[ReflexFunds]

The P&D report said: "US orders for Model 3 vehicles significantly outpaced what we were able to deliver in Q1." So we know US in-transit was pretty high. Also, European April sales indicate they had perhaps 2k in transit at end of Q1. China might have had a few, as usual it's a black box.

I'd estimate 8k US in transit at end of Q1.

I don't think "US orders... significantly outpaced what we were able to deliver" means higher in-transit, i think it mostly means build up of order book of SR+/SR which they weren't able to produce due to the production ramp of the new battery pack.

China was the most obvious delivery bottleneck in Q1, so i would have expected in-transit to be highest in China.

 

[Remus]

0 inventory Model 3’s(of any spec) available within 200 miles of my location(SF Bay Area). Down from 27 on Monday and 4 yesterday.

wanted to press disagree after reading the first half, because I just checked on Monday, oops.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Disagree because your estimate doesn't seem to add up right. Check the cash flow from changes in inventory -- your cash used in building up inventory is too low by over 110 million dollars.

Parts and materials and work-in-progress also affect the 800m+ inventory line item on the cash flow statement, but my comment only addressed Finished Goods Inventory.

My deltas were actually a bit high, in fact. FGI grew 570m in Q1, but my deltas sum to 690m. Some of the difference is the ~30m FGI writedown in Q1, some is mix shift and some is my lazy assumption that used car inventory was flat. In reality I'd expect it to decline some because trade-ins track sales which were down 30% Q/Q.​

Side note: I tracked down some numbers and it looks like S/X inventory was ~13.5k on 3/31 vs. my 14k.

 

[EVNow]

I never said "minor player" I said "a minority of EV's" - a minority is less than 50% by definition. I never said anything about them losing a 7 year technological advantage, or remotely implied it. Your inference is wrong.

Worldwide plugin sales in 2018 was 2M. 69% of it was BEV - so 1.4M.

Tesla sold 245k or 17.5%.

So, Tesla sells a minority of EVs - and has always sold a minority of EVs for the last few years.

Want to make any more corrections ?

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

The P&D report said: "US orders for Model 3 vehicles significantly outpaced what we were able to deliver in Q1." So we know US in-transit was pretty high. Also, European April sales indicate they had perhaps 2k in transit at end of Q1. China might have had a few, as usual it's a black box.

I'd estimate 8k US in transit at end of Q1.

This could mean many things. For example, they could have had many SR+ and some SR orders that they were not able to deliver as they didn't ramp up or were unwilling to ramp up yet; and still at that time they've had 10K LR and 3P models in inventory both '18 and '19 production, in addition to 10K in transit.
Which is what I think happened. We've seen bloggers talking about being offered '18 with $2-3K discounts...

 

[wipster]

This is what I get:

Sorry, you can't view or download this file at this time.

Too many users have viewed or downloaded this file recently. Please try accessing the file again later. If the file you are trying to access is particularly large or is shared with many people, it may take up to 24 hours to be able to view or download the file. If you still can't access a file after 24 hours, contact your domain administrator.​

Hmm

Bizzaro... I downloaded off the link in your message. MP4 with an hour and 8 minutes.

 

[tracksyde]

0 inventory Model 3’s(of any spec) available within 200 miles of my location(SF Bay Area). Down from 27 on Monday and 4 yesterday.

14 Model 3 within 200 miles of me (middle of Orange County, CA).. intrestingly, 12 of the 14 are Red SR+ and 2 are Black AWD. Maybe the $2000 cost for Red paint stings a bit too much for those looking for an SR+

 

[dww12]

0 inventory Model 3’s(of any spec) available within 200 miles of my location(SF Bay Area). Down from 27 on Monday and 4 yesterday.

Yeah all the ones close to me, Austin, Houston, Dallas, San Antonio were gone on Monday that were there on Saturday.

 

[Zero CO2]

now they are conflicted ... maybe go back to bread and butter ICE to prop up the numbers .... while at the same time trying to make a better EV .... this is a tough trick