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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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This is not necessarily the case. The offer is not unlimited amount and i guess some investors even do not have chance to participate. On the other hand, shorts can participate and use the new ammo to dump in the open market.

yeah the way i read it is keep stk under 309.83 conv price if you want cash, otherwise convert to stock

any anti-rally effort, to me, is still just to suppress the stock and keep recent derivatives plays ITM, regardless of notes (that aren’t even convertible yet). that convertibles play comes down the road more in 2023 heading into feb 2024 before it turns into a straight conversion until maturity may 15 2024
 
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Not everybody knows/cares about the notes is the simple answer to that one. I'm sure there is a more complete and correct answer as well. :D
Lol, ur right! Lots of moving parts to this story!

I also notice that for today's Options expiries, Call Open Interest is 9,644 at the $250 Strike.

So that will have an upward tug. But who knows what else is afoot. #NeverDull

Cheers!
 
Now that the capital raise is done, I do want to express my disappointment with Elon and most importantly Deepak Ahuja (good riddance in retrospect).

They knew the situation was so tight that at some point in Q1 they may have dipped below a $1B in net cash, maybe not, but what would have happened if the 50% delivery in 10 day had failed?!

Clearly a fk-up by the cfo, (Elon should be blamed too), who couldn’t prevent this risk and instead allowed for $920m debt to be repaid in cash. Maybe they were counting on it to be converted? If so, very naive. The real losers are the existing shareholders (including Elon) who lost value from the ill-timed more dilutive capital raise.

Some previous big shareholders fared well, Fidelity and trowe sold in March or before. But more importantly the shorts benefited in many possible ways.
  • They are able to now hedge by buying convertibles more affordably.
  • Cover some of their shorts using newly available 3.1 million stocks.
  • Most importantly they can cover cheaply as many Longs including Gerber K and some on this forum had to sell their holdings under capitulation.
Clearly, Elon/Deepak fkd-up on this bad planning and I think it costed Tesla SP $50-$75 near term pressure and 0.5-1.5b In net value loss. In the scheme of $500 billion market cap potential this may not seem a lot but, hey, who has seen the future?

Now I suspect the SP won’t recover to $300 mark in the near term unless Q2 becomes a big hit quarter on P&D. Knowing that Tesla under delivers, it is likely it will not. Would love to be wrong here.

I am a big Tesla bull, but very annoyed at this issue. Zach seems too young, and I am worried, given the CFO should be the most conservative guy in the company, that Zach’s relative youth could be a negative factor(?)

I wish we can ask this to Elon and Zach and see if they learned from it. At least they sucked it up and decided to raise the capital. Better safe than sorry.

great hindsight, now give us some foresight and guarantees
 
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Limited-time free FSD offer for Model 3 LR, AWD & Performance for China market only.

Eligible only if ordered from 2019.5.2-2019.6.30 and delivered before 2019.6.30

Seriously, Chinese people are not used to paying for software. I know that from first hand experience.

Note that SR+ is not included

Link from official Tesla wechat account
五月:「宜」下单获好礼、与好友分享
 
I like the volume: an active trading day seems to be in the cards considering <20 minutes to pass 33% of average daily volume and clearing 43% in <30 minutes. With all of the activity I can't help but wonder if there is some short covering going on mixed with profit taking on the >$10 differential for those who bought near the bottom. Might be interesting to ask @ihors3 at end of day what short activity he saw.
 
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“QUOTE="Artful Dodger, post: 3626129, member: 82946"]The SP will be natually capped at the convertible Senior notes price (set at May 2nd close or $244.10/share).

The offer closes on May 15. I think we'll see a natural lull until then.

Why would anyone accumulate shares at a higher SP when you could buy the notes for less?”


So you are ignoring the $500 billion mkt cap Elon just mentioned.
 
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considerable difference from the march 2019 that had a convert price of around 359, 362 w/ interest

Yes indeed. And different from the 2025 bond that was never registered so only true institutions could buy it. I strongly suspect that's why that bond price went underwater so quickly and stayed there.

Unlike this new bond. In fact, it is already trading, and the price is going up already.

I’m seeing a 100.625-100.875 market on these now. Last print was at 100.66. At 100.875 the YTM is 1.817%, at 100.66 the YTM is 1.862%.
 
I like the volume: an active trading day seems to be in the cards considering <20 minutes to pass 33% of average daily volume and clearing 43% in <30 minutes. With all of the activity I can't help but wonder if there is some short covering going on mixed with profit taking on the >$10 differential for those who bought near the bottom. Might be interesting to ask @ihors3 at end of day what short activity he saw.

papa fox implied that we need a high volume day to combat overselling. which could exhaust their ammo and cause a bit of a bounce up. especially after the ride in SI over the past week, and the black candle days comparison of last week and oct and subsequent bounce up.

it’s trying to play that way at the moment.

let’s see. paws crossed
 
great hindsight, now give us some foresight and guarantees

Sitting from outside you or I couldn’t have foreseen the things Deepak could have, and that is the point of my criticism. This is one of the main jobs of the CFO.

For future they can do a few things.
  • Do some stress testing of balance sheet and liquidity, play what-if scenarios.
  • Remember capital and liquidity is important to any business, whether it is a start-up or mega banks. So keep sufficient cash. Don’t spend all of 2.6B, put at least half for buffer.
  • Never put yourself in a box by saying we will pay bonds in cash or we will not raise capital. Say when market is appropriate we will raise capital if needed.
  • Operations should work with finance..which means the “Wave” decision is not just operations decision but very much a finance decision.
  • Timing is important in liquidity. Space out big capital outlays. So if FSD is the big investment, GF4 can wait a year (unless you are awash with cash, in that case deploying unused cash faster is the main concern).
In the end, the board should also step up and hold the CFO accountable. We focus too much on Elon, but being a clever finance/business guy is not his strong suit.