Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[traxila]

99.99% means someone can drive 10,000 miles without a crash. Or about a year without a crash. Most humans manage that.

It looks like there is a crash every 150k miles or so. That means on average once every 10 years for an average driver. Or better than 99.999%

Thank you for the context and explanation.

 

[RobStark]

Whose Buyers Have The Best Credit: Tesla and Porsche, Sure, But Also Subaru and Mazda

Tesla, the electric-vehicle maker, was No. 1 with an average score of 740, LendingTree said. To put that in context, Experian Automotive considers the credit-score range of 661 to 780 to be “prime,” while 781 to 850 is “super prime.”

 

[tinm]

Sunday OT but hey, this happens only once:

It took 2075 days, that is, 5 years, 8 months, and 6 days, but I did it. I just joined the 100K club.

Best. car. ever.

 

[Remus]

99.99% means someone can drive 10,000 miles without a crash. Or about a year without a crash. Most humans manage that.

It looks like there is a crash every 150k miles or so. That means on average once every 10 years for an average driver. Or better than 99.999%

Wow I am such a bad driver! Got side swiped two years ago, got hit in the wheel well in a parking lot a year ago. Got hit by a bycle after came to a complete stop a year ago. got rear ended on the highway 4 months ago! None of those are my fault but man that was annoying.

 

[PhaseWhite]

the whole demand issue as far as I can tell was a red herring put out by shorts. I have seen zero evidence anywhere that this is true other than for Model S/X refresh. The idea that Model 3 demand has all been met now and they need something new is ridiculous. We are not even at the first pitch in a nine inning game that plays out over decades. TSLA is peerless right now and unless someone does something incredible and amazing, that won't change anytime soon.

And this is with FSD not ever working. If FSD actually works we have a 10-bagger, if it doesn't and they execute the business its still a 3-5 bagger IMO. And BTW if their self driving gets to something like 99.99% perfect, which is not good enough for Level 5...this is still huge demand driver as it makes drivers life so much easier and insurance companies (<cough> also Tesla) risk profile much better.

So some level of autonomy from Level 3-5 is a big winner no matter what. I am personally hoping for the home run of FSD...and i have coded and even created novel neural nets and started a machine learning company...so I know a little about this field...but I confess to not having enough deep info on where that line is and what all the edge cases are and when they will handle most of them, etc etc to say "for sure it will work" or "for sure it won't work" or give any timeline.

they have a great FSD team and Musk is going to look like a total ass if he is wildly wrong...he has their latest stuff in his own car too. BUT...he drives in a very constrained area...so his experience with it is nowhere near adequate in sunny LA to say how good it is. But I note that he said by end of 2020 he feels very confident that "somewhere" it will have regulatory approval. That could be metro LA or some other relatively easy scenario.

It seems to me like nobody on the Autopilot team thinks FSD is as close as Musk does. Nobody is stating timelines but him.

A Google study estimated 4.2 crashes per million miles. This is 99.9996%. Tesla needs to be at 6 nines to be better than humans. 7 nines would make it better by an order of magnitude. I'd look at this as the point when most people would stop driving.

Crash rates for self-driving cars less than conventional car: study - Reuters

Number of crashes reported to nhtsa should be taken with a pinch of salt because of under-reporting. Insurance providers have the best data here. All state says on average someone gets into a crash every ten years. That makes it about one every 150k miles or so.​

I think the challenge with self driving cars has been and will remain humans. Even perfect FSD is unlikely to drop accident rates orders of magnitude until we get most humans off the road, or designate some roads as only for FSD travel. When I'm cruising on autopilot I'm surrounded by people looking at their phones drifting out of their lanes and other human drivers using a following distance measured in bumper lengths.

 

[Boomer19]

He gets credited as coming up with the concept of the shoe and is listed as a co-creator but he has no involvement with it now. Brian Koppelman has stated such on Twitter.

he’s still a wormy little twerp when it comes to the way he treats tesla

 

[Creekstalker]

by an order of magnitude

Ready for this phrase to die

 

[JRP3]

Fremont Factory Tour part 3 courtesy of CleanTechnica

 

[Pezpunk]

Ready for this phrase to die

along with people using the phrase "exponential growth" when something increases by like ... 40%.

 

[EVNow]

I think the challenge with self driving cars has been and will remain humans. Even perfect FSD is unlikely to drop accident rates orders of magnitude until we get most humans off the road, or designate some roads as only for FSD travel. When I'm cruising on autopilot I'm surrounded by people looking at their phones drifting out of their lanes and other human drivers using a following distance measured in bumper lengths.

To me what matters is at fault crash rates.

Preventing crashes because of mistakes of others is just good to have - I think FSD cars will be good at breaking quickly. Their reaction time and breaking will make them better. Evasive driving is a bit more difficult but they can do that better too (again better reaction time). Basically, definite crash scenarios are easy for FSD cars to figure out and take action on.

 

[oneday]

Ready for this phrase to die

Do you propose a replacement?

 

[EVNow]

Ready for this phrase to die

What does this mean ? You don't understand the phrase or do you think I used it wrong ?

 

[Creekstalker]

What does this mean ? You don't understand the phrase or do you think I used it wrong ?

Overused and fanboyish.

It's like how middle school girls try and sound like a Kardashian when they speak. Folks here trying to sound like Elon.

It's a free country, however, so feel free to carry on.

 

[Causalien]

Overused and fanboyish.

It's like how middle school girls try and sound like a Kardashian when they speak. Folks here trying to sound like Elon.

It's a free country, however, so feel free to carry on.

Namecalling TSLA fans with fanboism. Found in almost every tweet on #TSLAQ

 

[woof]

Overused and fanboyish.

It's like how middle school girls try and sound like a Kardashian when they speak. Folks here trying to sound like Elon.

It's a free country, however, so feel free to carry on.

It's a standard engineering concept...how engineers are taught to think. Until you rid the world of engineers, this phrase isn't going anywhere.

 

[FreqFlyer]

Fremont Factory Tour part 3 courtesy of CleanTechnica

A very impressive three part series, I would love to know how many workers work the line only (not including those working on parts like the seats) in comparison to Toyota's Georgetown or Honda's Marysville lines which are considered some of the most efficient plants in the world in units produced.

The amount of automation is impressive, makes one wander if the modle Y can intersect into the line after the model 3 body weld portion and robots programmed to recognized if the body is a 3 or Y and share the same line.

And interesting that the S/X requires more human interaction than the model 3. One could wander what would S/X profit margins be if the same amount of automation could be applied to it

 

[Krugerrand]

If people were to eat better, they won't have a cardiac arrest to start with.

You’re assuming that only diet contributes to heart attacks. That’s incorrect.

 

[Alphacrux]

To me what matters is at fault crash rates.

Preventing crashes because of mistakes of others is just good to have - I think FSD cars will be good at breaking quickly. Their reaction time and breaking will make them better. Evasive driving is a bit more difficult but they can do that better too (again better reaction time). Basically, definite crash scenarios are easy for FSD cars to figure out and take action on.

I hope FSD cars don’t break quickly. However, they might be capable of braking quickly.

Sorry.

 

[Krugerrand]

People have to calm down a bit here with the time lines.

Engineering, research and development simply does not work in a way where an insisting management can just magically make things happen faster by setting more ambitious time lines.

That’s pretty broad (engineering, R & D) but arguably those aren’t the deadlines we’re necessarily talking about.

 

[Krugerrand]

Because Tesla is the leakiest company out there? At least according to Musk.

The memo warning Employees not to leak reminding them of their NDA gets leaked to the press within hours.

How would internal deadlines not be leaked?

Okay, then start listing the internal deadlines for MY ramp, pickup reveal, semi production, GF4 build out...