Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EVNow]

OT :

Let's take the data above. In the prior post we learned that the Google study estimated 4.2 crashes per (1E6 mi * 5280 feet/mi * 12"/ft) = 7 billion inches! 99.999997%!!!! Level 5 here we come!!!

Yes, unfortunately there doesn't seem to be any standard way to talk about this. When people claim 99.99% (reliability) they don't say how that is being measured.

There seems to be a couple of ways this can be measured. First we talk about error rates - and reliability is the reverse of that. So, if we have an error rate of 0.1%, then reliability becomes 99.9%. The error rate can be expressed in terms of
- length (as in miles, kms, millions of miles etc) : common for vehicles
- time (hours, thousands of hours, years etc) : common for electronic products

Then, there is the nebulous aspect of % of scenarios covered. This makes little sense, since the # of scenarios is not finite.

So, it looks like reliability will be a confusing metric, just like EV Range.

ps : When you see error rates of car driving, even within per million miles usage you will see different metrics as well. Most often quoted is fatality - and as EM has talked about, this is (fortunately) too low for establishing FSD being better. Then there is the # of injuries per MM. But the one I'd use is # of crashes per MM, as that is what FSD needs to avoid.

 

[mad474]

Ferengi Commerce Authority?

Ferengi Rule of Acquisition #52: Never ask when you can take.
FCA: Fiat Chrysler Automobiles

 

[dc_h]

The CNBC hate is just hilarious. They list it in the biggest premarket movers and cite Chinese tariffs as an issue. Meanwhile it's down in premarket less than the SP500, DOW30 or NASDAQ. Laughable bias.

Ironically they are going to Trump Tesla to the top. Bad PR is a bummer, but ironically they help make Tesla the Kleenex of EV with every bile spewing opinion as fact story.

By trump Tesla to the top I’m referring to the media defining trump as the super alpha in 2016. They couldn’t help themselves and the same is happening for or to Tesla. It’s not all bad, especially when Tesla has so many fans acting my as social media wing person.

 

[Doggydogworld]

It sounded to me like Dojo was part of their path to have a NN determine driving behavior, instead of heuristics. It also sounded to me like they are at infancy (give or take) for this project. Would you agree?

That's the impression I got, but don't quote me. I paid a lot of attention to Bannon and Karpathy, but I tend to zone out when Musk talks. End-to-end creates all kinds of practical problems - advanced R&D in this area uses extremely simple cases to get results worth studying.

The NN is fed two frames per @jimmy_d

True, but I think Musk said they only use one frame. I may have misheard (see zone out, above). Two frames would be useful for simple object path prediction without adding massive training complexity or badly fuzzing up the results from the most recent frame. There are lots of opportunities to run parallel NNs on the new chip, cross-feed intermediate results, etc. It's hard to even guess what they're actually doing with that second frame.

 

[dc_h]

Did everyone see this? Click through and see not only the AP avoid the accident following the rear end, but check out the after to see how severe the impact was. Self driving is now doing stuff humans can’t or could only do by a very small percent of people. This is a pretty cool corner case!

Walter MacVane on Twitter

 

[Tslynk67]

Mercedes EQC production launched. It beats Model X standard on price and range. However, I bet the production will be low and Daimler will lose money hand over fist selling these puppies (battery size is 80kwh).

Mercedes-Benz EQC sales release & start of production: Electrified Mercedes hits the road | marsMediaSite

Sounds pretty poor to me, except perhaps price, quoting from from Electrek https://electrek.co/2019/05/06/mercedes-benz-eqc-start-production-electric-suv/:

Mercedes-Benz has announced a range of a 450km (280 miles), but the company was still using the NEDC standard when it made the announcement.

It wouldn’t be surprising if the real-world range is much closer to around 200 miles on a single charge.

The battery pack will be powered by 2 asynchronous motors with a total capacity of 300 kW (408 hp). It can achieve a top speed of 180 km/h (111 mph) and an acceleration from 0 to 100 km/h (62 mph) in 5.1 seconds.

According to the spec sheet, the EQC is equipped with a water-cooled onboard charger with a capacity of 7.4 kW and has a maximum capacity of “up to 110 kW at an appropriate charging station.“

The German automaker has yet to confirm the price in most markets, but it has an MSRP of 71,281.00€ in Germany (including 19% VAT).

Maybe as a nice second car for the school-run, like the Audi.

 

[Mike Smith]

From what i've read, NEDC is a complete scam where they can show inflated numbers. Even WLTP is not that great, but it's an improvement. Great for someone like Mercedes trying to drum up their fake EV competition.

A lot of car owners internationally use the US EPA numbers and just convert because the EPA has reasonable real world estimates.

According to InsideEVs, NEDC/EPA is 1.428.

I don't know why Mercedes gave a range of ranges, but their low end comes to 197mi EPA, while their upper range gives 205mi EPA.

But here's the really embarrassing part:

"In time for the Mercedes-Benz EQC launch there will be a "Holiday Mobility Package" available for customers in Germany. Through access to a Mercedes-Benz rental vehicle with a traditional combustion engine, the customer will be able to travel further distances on holiday in areas that do not yet have sufficient charging infrastructure."

They're offering a gas car loaner for when you want to go on trips!

 

[Creekstalker]

Did everyone see this? Click through and see not only the AP avoid the accident following the rear end, but check out the after to see how severe the impact was. Self driving is now doing stuff humans can’t or could only do by a very small percent of people. This is a pretty cool corner case!

Walter MacVane on Twitter

Amazing. If Tesla ever does decide to advertise, there is already plenty of video bolstering the argument that no car is safer. And the quantity and quality of evidence proving FSD's improvement is constantly increasing...

...by an order of magnitude.

 

[Tslynk67]

The CNBC hate is just hilarious. They list it in the biggest premarket movers and cite Chinese tariffs as an issue. Meanwhile it's down in premarket less than the SP500, DOW30 or NASDAQ. Laughable bias.

They do it all the time, Tesla = clicks. When I got that notification I looked at my watchlist and almost everything was 3-5% down in pre-market, with the exception of $TSLA which was less than 2% down.

 

[EVNow]

I don't know why Mercedes gave a range of ranges, but their low end comes to 197mi EPA, while their upper range gives 205mi EPA.

That's poor design. If EPA range comes in lower - at 198 Miles, they would have missed the important 200 target by just 2 miles. There is a reason 3, Bolt & Leaf targeted 220 and not 200.

 

[Tslynk67]

Wtf $260 calls are so cheap? In for one

I go for the 272.50 instead... Can't see this dip lasting as it's based on nothing.

 

[Etna]

By the way, I am curious how China based traders ended up finding this forum with the Chinese firewall and all.

This forum is not blocked by the Chinese firewall. I have posted several times here from Beijing on publicly accessible WiFi (as I presume also @PANN and a few others).

 

[lklundin]

Did everyone see this? Click through and see not only the AP avoid the accident following the rear end, but check out the after to see how severe the impact was. Self driving is now doing stuff humans can’t or could only do by a very small percent of people. This is a pretty cool corner case!

Walter MacVane on Twitter

Impressive indeed.

A later version should use the detection of an impending collision from behind to change lane before the Tesla gets hit.

Also, the Tesla should sound its horn to alert the other drivers to that they are about to cause an accident.

 

[AlexS]

I go for the 272.50 instead... Can't see this dip lasting as it's based on nothing.

Well it's not nothing, Trump tweets gave nice present for shorts to be able to cover at 250 area today.

 

[PANN]

By the way, I am curious how China based traders ended up finding this forum with the Chinese firewall and all.

VPN. Not a trader myself, am a long holding investor and fan.

 

[ggr]

This forum is not blocked by the Chinese firewall. I have posted several times here from Beijing on publicly accessible WiFi (as I presume also @PANN and a few others).

I believe the Great Firewall is smart enough to know the difference between Chinese citizens and foreign travelers based on their devices and habits. That's why a lot of travelers seem to end up thinking "It's not so bad...". But it's also possible that TMC isn't on any black list there.

 

[PANN]

This forum is not blocked by the Chinese firewall. I have posted several times here from Beijing on publicly accessible WiFi (as I presume also @PANN and a few others).

Yes not blocked, but still faster access on VPN I find. Twitter, Youtube, Google and etc are all blocked, so I'm on VPN all the time.

 

[anthonyj]

I go for the 272.50 instead... Can't see this dip lasting as it's based on nothing.

I got some $300s for this week too. TSLA can pop so fast. Really convinced that we bottomed

 

[oneday]

I go for the 272.50 instead... Can't see this dip lasting as it's based on nothing.

I grabbed some May 17, $250 this morning.

 

[Tslynk67]

Well it's not nothing, Trump tweets gave nice present for shorts to be able to cover at 250 area today.

No, the effect is annoying, but it's based on nothing. Things appeared to be progressing with the trade discussions, as @Fact Checking said, it's just the orange idiot trying to distract from his criminal activities.

I cannot express in words how much I despite the current POTUS.