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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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If you look at links below and do some basic math, you'll figure out that MB sells 85% in Europe, China and NA (NAFTA). BMW does 88% in those same countries.
I don't know if you consider 15% or 12% significant (you said market is much bigger?), but in my book what's left qualifies as a long tail, and Tesla is already present in best markets.
This is not surprising; outside of NAFTA, Europe and China, the rest of the world are either small markets, or they buy less cars and cheaper cars, or have other impediments (like Japan), so luxury and near luxury cars are much smaller percentage of overall sales. I'll stop now on this subject...

references:
2018 Global: Mercedes-Benz Worldwide Sales - Car Sales Statistics
2018 Global: BMW, Mini & Rolls Royce Worldwide Sales - Car Sales Statistics

OK, I see my mistake.
“core markets of”...
It can mean the core of each region, or that the regions are the core markets.

What’s happening is that in each region, Tesla has ‘core’ hot spots where they dominate. California, Norway, for example. Eventually the globe will be a Tesla hotspot. While BMW remain solvent, we will know there is still plenty of market left to capture.
 
Sooooo, we are halfway thru the quarter. Any guesses on overall sold numbers? I know they are rockin in Canada...or at least orders. I would think between just Quebec and BC we are looking at 1000 a week. How’s things in the US. Have any arrived for this wave in Europe yet? If guidance is 90,000 are we halfway there? The 10,000 in transit from last quarter should be all delivered by now. Who has a crystal ball...or maybe just make a wild ass guess. :).
Wild ass guess: Deliveries won't be near 90k. Just can't trust Tesla's guidance and Elon's timelines anymore.
 
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OT
Elon can't help himself on Twitter. He stated 6 more launches of 60
1f6f0.png
for initial activation, 12 for significant coverage.

Suggests at least that when it launches tomorrow, he thinks all 60 will deploy without failure. Will be quite something. It may not be enormously challenging for SpaceX but 60 satellites is just wow. The machine gun of satellite deployments.
D6VKKwiUUAABZ_p.jpg
Something quite interesting I read today. For satellite deployment SpaceX is going to initiate some spin on the second stage, that will create the force to separate the satellites as they deploy.

To my knowledge this has never been done before and should be quite a feat and a must see IMO.

Edit: Another tidbit, Elon said there is more solar power on these 60 satellites than the entire ISS combined.
 
Wild ass guess: Deliveries won't be near 90k. Just can't trust Tesla's guidance and Elon's timelines anymore.
They do seem to be shipping more.
They had 4 ships arrive in China and Europe the last week of March, so mostly delivered in Q2.
Four ships arrived, so far, in China and Europe in Q2.
Three ships arriving in Europe and China in the next week.
Three ships scheduled in SFO in the next week.

That’s 14 ships and counting. They can get one or two more loaded and delivered to China after June 1st. Counting the load seems to be futile, but should be about 3000 each. They said they’d load more full ships, but there’s no confirmation about that yet. If they do 15 ships with 3000 each, that’s 45,000. Finish USA with 10k April and 15k May and June and 5k in Canada they hit deliveries.
Maybe a long shot, but it seems doable.
Hate to get my hopes up. Honestly just waiting for Shanghai to come online in Q4 and start selling those high margin 3’s in China.

Tesla Carriers
 
Tariffs are collected from US companies buying Chinese goods, incentivizing them to buy non Chinese goods. Incentivizing moving of production outside of China.

I know you want to the US to keep taking in the rear from Chinese mercantilist policies,including intellectual property theft leading to domination of 21st century industries.

Wars have cost. Won, they also have benefits.
An american born worker does not and in most cases, will not work in a factory. Mostly immigrants, who will take any job, especially good paying no matter the conditions. My first job was in a wire & cable factory, worked there for 16 years. Started on the floor as an In process quality assurance inspector and worked my way up to R&D. All the american born factory workers quit, or were laid off and didn't return. Automation will make this point moot in a few years. I was born in Portugal like most of the factory employees.The factory closed 10 years ago, reopened a few years later, now it's owned by a Berkshire subsidiary, still making wire, though not the HVDC cable that was our bread & butter :D
 
Wild ass guess: Deliveries won't be near 90k. Just can't trust Tesla's guidance and Elon's timelines anymore.

I have another WAG: even if deliveries meet guidance, AJ and the usual suspects issue downgrades regardless, but timed to maximize their shortz. :p

In other news, Gali has a new video out titled "Tesla's Vertical Autonomy Stack":

 
Slightly off-topic - meaning I will gladly move this to a more appropriate thread if asked to do so, and told how - earlier this morning I listened to the Call You and Yours podcast on BBC Radio 4, originally broadcast yesterday. The topic - and my reason for listening to it: What's it like to buy and run an EV in the UK? So here's a quick synopsis of this 40-minute broadcast (note: much of this is strictly relevant to the UK market):
  • listeners would call in to describe their experience owning an EV in the UK; without exception they all love driving an EV vs. a petrol car... mmm, ok, great! But...
  • most of them complained about the limited range, and their reaction varied from "not for long drives, city driving only, it's a commuter car really; they're not there yet with the technology / not ready to become your only driver" to "well you just need to plan ahead, and I now know exactly how many miles there are to my office, my kid's school, etc."
  • it quickly emerges that many of the callers own either 1st gen. Leafs (my grammar-loving brain wants me to type Leaves, but I know I shouldn't) or Zoes, or a Mitsubishi PHEV, or various other hybrids with very low electric range, up to 100 miles;
  • on the topic of hybrids: funny / cringey comment from a guy who just bought a Toyota Auris hybrid this March and, when asked how often he needs to charge, he replies "oh, no, mine is what's known as a self-charging hybrid" - completely unchallenged, in spite of him admitting seconds earlier that the petrol engine charges the battery! So many things wrong here, but moving on...
  • the real barrier to a smooth transition to EVs is the insufficient charging infrastructure in cities and on motorways, the fact that many charging points are either not working or are ICEd (although nobody actually used that word) and also the multiple charging networks, each requiring a separate membership and its own card or phone app, and it should be more straightforward, be able to pay with your debit / credit card
  • prices are still too high, it is expected that by 2025 there will be price parity with ICEVs as battery technology improves
  • living in a flat is a non-starter for owning an EV if there is insufficient public charging in a city, says a fellow who lives in a flat in London and owns an EV, admitting he paid £2000 for getting a connection to a charging system installed in his building by the management company, which charging system cost £3000 to install (and for which he had to also pay his share)
  • it occurred to me that any person interested in the actual practical benefits of buying or owning an EV in the UK and listening to this would get the impression that it's just a bunch of weird tree-huggers buying these cars in spite of how difficult it is to own one (most owners mentioned buying an EV because they wanted to "go green" and they enjoyed the "silence", and diesels stink, literally): EVs are expensive to buy, difficult to charge due to poor or inexistent infrastructure, and they have limited range, according to owners!
  • I kept waiting to hear someone mention Tesla, not because I'm an investor, but because I would have thought that one of the world's largest EV-only car companies, making the EVs with the longest range and the best performance, is relevant to this topic... the word was only uttered once, in the absolute final minute of the show, in connection to the moral implications of Li-ion batteries requiring cobalt, which is mined by child labor in the DR Congo (yeah... that came up!), and the expert invited on the show, Prof. David Bailey from Birmingham Business School, said that Tesla is "looking at alternative options" to reduce Co content in the batteries, and BMW has made a big effort on this!
  • there's clearly a lot of demand for EVs, because VW just took 10,000 preorders in the first 24h for the ID3 "which costs £26,000", and the Opel Ampera (?) has 4000 preorders! Wow! Any other... car company or model you might... want to mention on the topic of large preorder numbers? No? Mmmkay then...
  • things like the large EV ownership in Norway were mentioned, along with the benefits the local government provided for increased adoption, although it might have been relevant to mention that more than half of new cars purchased there are now EVs... but no.
My take: this is a good cross-section of how the general population (again, in the UK) views the experience of owning and driving an EV. People who own old-ish non-Tesla EVs will complain about range, people looking into buying new EVs will complain about price, and everyone will complain about the charging infrastructure. The big take-away is that it's a big headache and you'd better be prepared to completely change your driving habits!

And there's your lack of demand! People may hear about new EV models and performance numbers, but unless they really decide to start reading into the whole experience of owning one and trying to get as much info on the topic, they will just live with prejudiced views and stupid soundbites and won't consider it.

Demand will grow organically as more people understand that these barriers are being knocked down one after another - and most of these barriers don't even exist anymore! I believe Europe will be a HUGE market for EVs, and the transition will be fairly sudden, but it's people's awareness and attitudes that will first need to change.
Thanks very interesting. And yet we still have people steadfast in their view that all forms of advertising are dumb...

While Tesla are cell limited it might not make much sense but let us hope that bottle neck is soon resolved. At that point quite a cheap highly targeted campaign could underscore demand for the higher priced models with higher margins. If the tariff war moves onto the EU this might become essential sooner than most think.
 
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Tariffs are collected from US companies buying Chinese goods, incentivizing them to buy non Chinese goods. Incentivizing moving of production outside of China.

I know you want to the US to keep taking in the rear from Chinese mercantilist policies,including intellectual property theft leading to domination of 21st century industries.

Wars have cost. Won, they also have benefits.

Unfortunately the U.S. has a crappy win/loss record for wars in the last 70 years. Time to retire
 
So Russia is 80,000 out of 2,310,000 that MB sold.
That's 3.46% of MB volume.
I wouldn't think that's significant enough to bring as a counterpoint and call big market.
2018 Global: Mercedes-Benz Worldwide Sales - Car Sales Statistics

And the point about half of the Europe? The other half of the Europe can't afford Tesla in significant volumes*. Tesla is already present in majority of the markets where they can sell well or relatively well. The rest is long tail, there are sales to be harvested, but is juice worth the squeeze? Same for the rest of the world.

* perhaps it's not widely known how poor parts of Europe that are ex-communist states are. Primer: my brother is mid-class in Serbia and very proud that he was able to afford to buy used, only 12 years old VW Passat. His friend, medical doctor, has an almost new, only 8 years old Opel(GM) Astra. Only criminals and politicians can afford new cars.

BTW I was wrong, just checked it is 40 000 cars not 80 000 cars from MB to Russia.
 
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Be careful about shorting. Uber is aiming very high, $12T addressable market. Normally I would laugh at it, but this one is backed by Softbank. Uber is not just a piece of software, it owns 20% Didi China, also owns ride sharing in other parts of the world, has an autonomous/R&D unit, Uber Eats has a lot of room to grow. I imagine they will get into shipping soon.

I think there will be a big winner in this $12T market (personal mobility, food delivery, and freight shipping), at this time I can't tell who will win the race. Tesla, Uber, Amazon or maybe another tech company, I guess each one has about 25% chance to win. Tesla has vehicles, others have cash. Masayoshi Son and Jeff Bezos are not bad at vision/execution.

Rumor says two years ago Masayoshi Son tried to buy a 30% stake of Tesla, it didn't work out. That's unfortunate, otherwise our stock would be several fold higher by now.

Son said he meets Jack Ma once a month, I imagine they exchange ideas, discuss big pictures and strategic moves. Elon said he spends way over 80 hours a week at work. That's not a good sign to me. He needs to rest well, spend less than 50 hours working, take a step back and focus on big pictures. Tesla's opponents are making major strategic moves, Tesla can't afford to drawn their CEO into little details all the time.

Tesla should do everything to ensure and accelerate the success of FSD development. Meanwhile, I hope Tesla can start a small taxi/ride sharing program in one town, gain some insight through this pilot program. Maybe allow customers to drive and see how that will affect people's view toward Tesla cars. Really hope Tesla can win.

Autonomy without EV is pointless. Remove the driver and fuel and maintenance becomes the next biggest cost. Does Uber or Lyft intend on making electric vehicles? Lyft is partnering with GM to buy $1M cruise automation bolts? Good luck with that. If either of them have to buy autonomous EVs they lose to Tesla who is selling autonomous EVs to customers who will put them on the Tesla Network. Tesla will have it's cake and eat it too. Uber will end up a bike sharing company. But why short then when you can just short all the automakers who refuse to build EVs?