Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[tinm]

You are using the logical fallacy of Reductio ad Absurdum:

Reductio ad Absurdum​

Few are arguing that anti-Tesla media bias comes in the form of advertisers "ordering" journalists to smear Tesla, or to treat Volkswagen favorably.

Corruption and media bias is rarely as transactional and rarely as naively transparent as you pretend it to be.

Instead look at the research articles I linked to: if "incentives", "motives" and "financial self interest" meet, negative media coverage of car safety recalls of carmakers that are advertising with them suddenly becomes "significantly lower":



The study's findings are unambiguous: the supposedly click-bait hungry, if-it-bleeds-it-leads mass media suddenly loses interest in negative stories that involve their own advertisers...

I.e. these studies are directly contradicting your claims.

Not quite, they're reporting what happened in terms of car safety recalls and media bias against automakers who don't advertise with a given media outlet. Not exactly the same situation being discussed in this thread, but certainly relevant. You're implying that the findings in that study can be applied to other situations like media vs. Tesla. It might be a likely explanation but we don't know for sure. Some here would prolly argue, nah, we know for sure. Horse, dead, club, etc.

Here's what's resulting from your trotting out the research you cite. I now plan to talk to Graham Beattie et al and get their thoughts on media vs. Tesla. Graham seems like a particularly interesting professor. So, thanks for that.

 

[Etna]

I can echo @Webeevdrivers experience, my brother in law placed an order for a Leaf here in Quebec and it's months of waiting.

As an aside he did not even consider a Model 3 because "they have a two year wait list" and "they closed all their stores anyway".

In reality there is a Tesla service center/store not even a mile from where he lives. Throwing up my arms in the air.

 

[bpjod]

Amusing story. In a recent email with our Tesla rep in Vancouver he explained they are taking 800 orders per week and I assume delivering as many. That’s like 100 cars per day. Pretty amazing for one province. To get the car we would want us 4 to 8 weeks. LR RWD white on white, sport rims, etc. He’s a good rep and keeps us up to date.

Also got an update text from our Nissan rep. We have a Leaf SL Eplus on order. Delivery now expected January 2020. Looks crazy right. 8 month waiting list for our Eplus but only 4 to 8 weeks for a model 3. But here’s the thing. Our dealership is only allowed 18 Leafs per month. Last year they sold close to 250 for the year. My point is it’s the kind of thing that could be spun easy. I can get a Tesla in 4 weeks but because of superior demand it takes 8 months to get a Leaf Eplus.

Just sayin. Things are not always as they first appear.

Interesting anecdote. I sure hope Vancouver is moving 800 per week. With numbers like that, Tesla may see fit to add a few more superchargers in BC too .

However, to add some perspective, don't forget that Vancouver has the one and only Tesla store in BC. How many Nissan dealers are there? If 20 dealers selling 18 Leafs each per month on average, that's 360 per month with an 8 month waiting list. Not exactly 3200 per month like you're saying Tesla is doing, but better than your posting makes it look.

 

[FreqFlyer]

Jerome — The Man, The Myth, The Tesla Super-Engineer — #CleanTechnica Interview | CleanTechnica

I was just about to quote this. With all of this talk about lack of or poor communication affecting the SP, this kind of behind the scenes interview is encouraging.

 

[Remus]

Thanks for posting this. I thought this paragraph on Semi was interesting:

A rather big bombshell was that he wasn’t aware of many large companies that hadn’t pre-ordered trucks, demonstrating strong interest in the product. Additionally, whereas he hasn’t been in touch much with car customers in recent years, he’s in very close contact with the potential Semi customers, and they continuously work together to develop what I assume will be the best semi truck product on the market. He called it a “journey together.”​

Also, this was interesting color on the continuous manufacturing improvements:

Regarding the various model production lines, Jerome noted what we basically gathered ourselves on the factory tour — the company is constantly updating, changing, improving the production process. He said he had something like 15 projects in his head — per line.​

Yes yes yes, let's get the boring commercial market where Tesla's efficiency shines,

 

[printf42]

OT,

Talked with a random guy who claims he works for Tesla as interior engineer.
I asked about model S&X interior refresh.
He said for X, “yeah they started that, and probably will be out next year”, “the big screen will be like Model 3”, “and they are going to keep the small dash screen”.
For S, he was not clear on it.

So the reports on a Q3 or Q4 refresh are way off, also I got the feeling this interior refresh is not going to be as big as people are expecting.

Btw: he said Palo Alto head quarter building is all AP now, all other engineering has been moved out to Fremont, I didn’t know AP/FSD teams are that big now.

Also, Tesla is really a leaky bucket, the guy seemed to be thinking of NDA, but said those anyways. Apple engineers are clear contrast, I have much closer contacts who doesn’t comment on anything none-public.

Oh, if there is Tesla people reading this and trying to figure out who that was. Just to let you know, I completely made this story up to make my point.

 

[Krugerrand]

Too many folks replying to my questions to answer individually on this iPhone so here’s a general reply.

My Occam’s Razor says reporters write poor/negative stories about Tesla because they don’t care or they’re cynical or they resent the elitist Silicon Valley rich-bro vibe that Tesla sometimes gives off or they’re just sloppy reporters or deep down they’re grizzled veteran Detroit gas-car people who love the rumble of an ICE or they can’t stand billionaire Elon or they’ve read too much of and buy into TSLAQ propaganda, or they believe they could never personally afford a Tesla and maybe resent those who can, or they’re sick of the drama and hype that surrounds Tesla and annoyed that the company’s corporate PR people are impossible to work with and don’t give them any useful info, or they’re stuck in the day-to-day/quarter-to-quarter mindset and can’t/won’t take a longer term view, or they’re just chronically skeptical of anything Tesla claims... or a dozen other similar reasons. Or, likely, often some combination of the above.

So have no credibility, no impartiality and just basically suck at their profession.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

OT,

Talked with a random guy who claims he works for Tesla as interior engineer.
I asked about model S&X interior refresh.
He said for X, “yeah they started that, and probably will be out next year”, “the big screen will be like Model 3”, “and they are going to keep the small dash screen”.
For S, he was not clear on it.

So the reports on a Q3 or Q4 refresh are way off, also I got the feeling this interior refresh is not going to be as big as people are expecting.

Btw: he said Palo Alto head quarter building is all AP now, all other engineering has been moved out to Fremont, I didn’t know AP/FSD teams are that big now.

Also, Tesla is really a leaky bucket, the guy seemed to be thinking of NDA, but said those anyways. Apple engineers are clear contrast, I have much closer contacts who doesn’t comment on anything none-public.

Oh, if there is Tesla people reading this and trying to figure out who that was. Just to let you know, I completely made this story up to make my point.

Don't worry, im sure you'll appear on electrek with Fred quoting his sources by the end of the day. Of course he'll leave out the last part

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Interesting anecdote. I sure hope Vancouver is moving 800 per week. With numbers like that, Tesla may see fit to add a few more superchargers in BC too .

However, to add some perspective, don't forget that Vancouver has the one and only Tesla store in BC. How many Nissan dealers are there? If 20 dealers selling 18 Leafs each per month on average, that's 360 per month with an 8 month waiting list. Not exactly 3200 per month like you're saying Tesla is doing, but better than your posting makes it look.

Yah I get that. My point was how people in the media spin stuff. Model 3 is a true mass market EV. Nissan Leaf not so much. Don’t get me wrong. I’m not dissing the leaf. Our existing leaf has been bullet proof and we just ordered another one to replace the wife’s smart ED. It’s just that it can be spun to look like there is a longer waiting list for a Leaf than a model 3.

Although I can’t confirm actual delivery numbers for Tesla’s at Vancouver delivery centre it sounds plausible. Two incentives, high gas prices and some pent up demand. The optimistic side of me leans towards it being true. Glad to see Tesla kickin it in Canada.

 

[ruralectric]

I can echo @Webeevdrivers experience, my brother in law placed an order for a Leaf here in Quebec and it's months of waiting.

As an aside he did not even consider a Model 3 because "they have a two year wait list" and "they closed all their stores anyway".

In reality there is a Tesla service center/store not even a mile from where he lives. Throwing up my arms in the air.

Meanwhile out in Ruralville: Yesterday I was approached on the street by someone who has come to our EV events in the past, someone I'd characterize as a progressive, especially with respect to environmental and social issues. She was glad to bump into me because she knew I'd bought a Model 3 a few months back and was "concerned for me" because of "all the negative press about Tesla".

The anti-Tesla and anti-Musk narrative is pervasive. And people love to hate rich guys, and Elon sometimes says and does things that aren't helpful. Every once a month or so he says or tweets some fodder for the anti-Tesla dreadnaught that reaches the eyes and ears of nearly the entire cable news audience. Like it or not, that's where a huge segment of the population of this country gets its news. Tesla could lose this battle if they don't do something. Strange that they are so nimble when it comes to improvements on the production line, but keep making the same mistakes over and over with their messaging.

Tesla definitely could benefit from a communications campaign targeted down-market to educate the masses about safe, affordable, reliable electric transportation that is available now. It doesn't have to look like conventional auto advertising. But Tesla needs to think big with respect to taking over the narrative. They need to to make this as much a part of their mission as building factories and making lots of cars or they will lose the war.

 

[roblab]

Meanwhile out in Ruralville:
They need to to make this as much a part of their mission as building factories and making lots of cars or they will lose the war.

You obviously don't know what their mission is.

 

[DocZ]

OT,

Talked with a random guy who claims he works for Tesla as interior engineer.
I asked about model S&X interior refresh.
He said for X, “yeah they started that, and probably will be out next year”, “the big screen will be like Model 3”, “and they are going to keep the small dash screen”.
For S, he was not clear on it.

So the reports on a Q3 or Q4 refresh are way off, also I got the feeling this interior refresh is not going to be as big as people are expecting.

Btw: he said Palo Alto head quarter building is all AP now, all other engineering has been moved out to Fremont, I didn’t know AP/FSD teams are that big now.

Also, Tesla is really a leaky bucket, the guy seemed to be thinking of NDA, but said those anyways. Apple engineers are clear contrast, I have much closer contacts who doesn’t comment on anything none-public.

Oh, if there is Tesla people reading this and trying to figure out who that was. Just to let you know, I completely made this story up to make my point.

LOL I was getting ready to counter everything you said until I read the end. For what it’s worth, I have a very reliable source that says it’s happening end of year. Like you said, who knows though

 

[Freder Reeve]

Bought in today with more to follow at the end of the week. Planning on this paying for my Model Y on down the road!
Yes, the guy is obnoxious to watch, but this video sums up why I jumped back in at this point.

Dan

Good videos from him on tesla.
I sold 5% of my alibaba fri to avg down my 'dumb long' tesla holding a little more. Sure wish i'd of gotten off the swing in time on my tsla..(again!ahhh) man those overnight falls are a bitch. Ce la vie. Sure hope it goes up a whooole lot so I can justify pulling the trigger on a Y i preordered as well.

 

[EinSV]

Yes yes yes, let's get the boring commercial market where Tesla's efficiency shines,

I can't wait for the Semi to hit the roads. It will be a slow rollout initially as customers get their feet wet.

After that, if the Tesla Semi performs as advertised, orders should be through the roof.

Given Tesla's track record, there is every reason to believe it will perform as advertised if not better.

 

[wipster]

I can echo @Webeevdrivers experience, my brother in law placed an order for a Leaf here in Quebec and it's months of waiting.

As an aside he did not even consider a Model 3 because "they have a two year wait list" and "they closed all their stores anyway".

In reality there is a Tesla service center/store not even a mile from where he lives. Throwing up my arms in the air.

Doesn't anybody drive before they buy anymore? If one were to take both cars out for a test drive first I don't know how they could choose a Leaf over a 3...

 

[UrsS]

The share price is controlled by the market. Management can only control the company.

According to my observations share prices of anything are determined by stockholders believes - more like a religion and much less by facts. In great hope for salvation sometimes in the future ($$$$$$$$$$).
So now we need a good Televangelist to indoctrinate the masses about Teslerigion.
Some of us here are already true believers.
And Musk does have some 22 million devotees on twitter.
My believe is that Musk is one of many prophets trying desperately to save humanity from destroying itself. Any $$$$ in that?
FUDsters are the opposite.

 

[Boomer19]

Too many folks replying to my questions to answer individually on this iPhone so here’s a general reply.

My Occam’s Razor says reporters write poor/negative stories about Tesla because they don’t care or they’re cynical or they resent the elitist Silicon Valley rich-bro vibe that Tesla sometimes gives off or they’re just sloppy reporters or deep down they’re grizzled veteran Detroit gas-car people who love the rumble of an ICE or they can’t stand billionaire Elon or they’ve read too much of and buy into TSLAQ propaganda, or they believe they could never personally afford a Tesla and maybe resent those who can, or they’re sick of the drama and hype that surrounds Tesla and annoyed that the company’s corporate PR people are impossible to work with and don’t give them any useful info, or they’re stuck in the day-to-day/quarter-to-quarter mindset and can’t/won’t take a longer term view, or they’re just chronically skeptical of anything Tesla claims... or a dozen other similar reasons. Or, likely, often some combination of the above.

Does the legacy auto industry have influence over the media? No doubt. Autos are deeply embedded in the culture especially in the US. Historically the auto industry has been one of the largest advertisers in print and broadcast. But a lot’s changed with the rise of the Web.

A lot of TMC folks here seem to have different Occam’s Razors, ones that tell them that obviously the auto industry is directly influencing/ordering media outlets to be negative on Tesla. I disagree it’s that blatant or simple. I think editors and reporters are fully capable of being negative on Tesla for their own reasons without pressure from execs upstairs. And I base this on conversations I’m having with individual reporters some of whom have written infamously negative stories on Musk/Tesla.

So for me, until hard evidence says otherwise, I’ll continue to place the source for the media negativity on Tesla largely on the reporters themselves.

it’s mostly clickbait for traffic and ad rev, period.
it’s faster, frankly easier, to make a hit piece while the buzz is negative- than it is roll up your sleeves and do, like, you know, research...

in the time it would take a ‘journalist’ to do that in order to write a story or series about what tesla is actually doing...they could write 4-5 pieces that are going to get more web traffic. theres no incentive for that in this current model.

 

[sundaymorning]

Unfortunately I have a difficult time in Michigan. I have 3 really interested but the no local service centers is a concern for them. And yes, I have explained mobile service.

Tesla also no longer offers the valet service to pick up our cars to bring it to Ohio or Chicago. (Which I can understand.)

When Toyota was first introduced the hate in Michigan was strong. Cars were being vandalized, different of Toyota’s were harassed, etc. As we get more owners on the road the pressure will be on for politicians who choose to make the wrong decisions, especially involving products that be people love.

 

[Boomer19]

and advertising...just stop

they can’t fulfill the orders they have now. they don’t need more orders...of anything.

wake up!
they can’t make batteries fast enough. NOBODY can.

so stop with the advertising. that solves nothing at this time.

revisit when they’re pumping out at least 2x current gw

tons of crying here about the current state. yeah, it sucks.

- what we need is battery production.
- it would be ‘nice to have’:
* more polished communication from the organization.
* less costly and more efficient global distribution and service network

but those don’t mean crapola w/o more gwh

in the meantime, you know the street, kick ‘em when they’re down. throw the kitchen sink at it. all hands on deck. truly a war to force it out of business, to to scare the living sh!t out of any long holder to dump their shares at a huuuuuggggee discount.

if you’re LT, simply don’t fall for it. it will be back. you know this thing trades in $100 swings.

but if you truly believe there are fundamental issues with the biz plan, than its time to go. listening to the jerks in the puppet media (the wapners of the world) is not the way to analyze your investment. do your own homework.

 

[Remus]

I guess in 2100 Amazon will be almost ready to make money selling physical products?

Investments don't cause lack of profits.

They don't make hardly any profits on selling physical products. If they raise prices that draws competitors.

Amazon isn't making autonomous EVs.

UPS and FedEx can also buy Tesla Semis.

I don't think you get it.

Just like Tesla wants to get into the service market, because selling cars and selling transportation as a service have drastically different profit margin and scale. Unfortunately I don't think we can see that in a decade. love to be wrong though. On the other hand their energy storage side could become a service business, with a lot of capital requirement

AWS was a side business, they didn't build it to serve others. They build it to serve their own retail business. Bezos had the crazy idea to push the SOA to the extreme, putting clear boundaries between teams for better accountability and flexibility, pissing lots of people off and rack up huge attrition. Few people see the brilliance of this and they were all wrong.

At the same time Bezos have been doing exactly the same thing on the physical side of the business. Retail as service is taking shape and nobody had a clue what they are doing. Optimistically retail as a service would be bigger than their retail business and they will have more than 10 years lead on any competitors in this environment.