Yes, this is all Trump’s fault. Every stock is near ATH but Tesla keeps dumping
Every vehicle manufacturer stock is near ATH?
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Every vehicle manufacturer stock is near ATH?
Shouldn't have looked at the news feed:
Thus showing (proving?) that some price targets appear to be either SP-x or SP*y (where y is < 1)
anthonyj
Stonks
If you want to compare Tesla to auto stocks, then we should be looking at a price target of $50, shouldn’t we? Tesla isn’t an auto manufacturing stock, it’s a unique hybrid of auto and tech
Dan Detweiler
Active Member
Facts
40B cap on 22.5 B sales = TSLA
Ford 41 B cap, 158 B sales
Toyota 193B Cap, 275 B sales
AMZN 939 B Cap, 241 B sales
Compared to tech/growth, TSLA value can be justified. Compared to autos, not so much.
What has to happen is TSLA needs to demonstrate continued growth to drive future expectations and value. As it is now, the word in public is model 3 is stagnant, battery capacity limited such that other models can't be brought forward, they just bought a new company that might improve value but can't just turn that spigot on. Perhaps the Y and Semi and roadster are all ready to to into production yet they need battery cells and perhaps MXWL tech integration first. Perhaps TSLA goes it alone with battery building using the new tech but will remain constrained by scaling up. In many ways, the TSLA story seems on hold until this all gets sorted out. Changing the story from transportation to TAAS really takes some getting used to. If mutual funds bought the auto company but EM pivoted to TAAS, the premise for trade entry is gone and ought to be exited. This is true for everyone, if the reasons to enter a trade are no longer there, GET OUT.
In order to move up, I think the battery growth has to happen, they have to decide what they are going to do with MXWL tech, then bring forth new products for more growth. Perhaps they can grow double with China factory but they will need more manufacturing space for Y, semi, truck, and others. This can't happen overnight. There is no rush to own TSLA here and now. I think they are walking a tight rope financially with all this growth and hope the latest round fuels the future.
On TAAS, it is real tough to judge the value. UBER and Lyft are kind of comps, but are in a different sector compared to EVs. One million autonomous taxis on the road in a hear? Horse tonky, all those owners are not going to let them out. They are too busy complaining and manufacturing issues, their 10K clear coats, their paint quality etc... to let loose the car out of their sight. More so true for X/S owners (excess owners). Rare will be the person that puts their car into service. Hence the leasing for TSLA to get the cars back. Perhaps in 3 years the TAAS segment will grow then.
What is wrong with the new chip/computer that they publicly acknowledge that they are already half thru design of the next one?
$300-400 share price might be justifiable when these issues are figured out. Each of them has chance of failure. If all of them have to come true to justify much higher prices, like the half trillion market cap, it really looks hair brained.
What are the chances of the following:
TSLA EV growth to 1M cars a year in next 5 years? I say 25%.
MXWL integration next 3 years? 50%
Increased capacity for all models next 3 years using MXWL tech to scale? 10%
TAAS as being sold by EM next 3 years? 5%
Self driving being allowed in US and elsewhere so that it can be a driver of revenue, next 3 years? 5%
Solar and/or battery adoption in more TSLA households, any time frame? 25%
Large battery storage capacity growth, using MXWL and able to grow to scare, next 3-5 years? 20%
Chances of all of the above happening? Take whatever percent estimates you have given the value drivers of the future and MULTIPLY them together and you get the percent chance of that happening. using the above figures there is 0.00015% chance of all of them happening. If you think there is a 95% chance of each of the above happening, there is only a 73% chance of all of them happening.
In total, their is a slim to none chance of TSLA being a 500 B market cap company any time soon...
40B cap on 22.5 B sales = TSLA
Ford 41 B cap, 158 B sales
Toyota 193B Cap, 275 B sales
AMZN 939 B Cap, 241 B sales
Compared to tech/growth, TSLA value can be justified. Compared to autos, not so much.
What has to happen is TSLA needs to demonstrate continued growth to drive future expectations and value. As it is now, the word in public is model 3 is stagnant, battery capacity limited such that other models can't be brought forward, they just bought a new company that might improve value but can't just turn that spigot on. Perhaps the Y and Semi and roadster are all ready to to into production yet they need battery cells and perhaps MXWL tech integration first. Perhaps TSLA goes it alone with battery building using the new tech but will remain constrained by scaling up. In many ways, the TSLA story seems on hold until this all gets sorted out. Changing the story from transportation to TAAS really takes some getting used to. If mutual funds bought the auto company but EM pivoted to TAAS, the premise for trade entry is gone and ought to be exited. This is true for everyone, if the reasons to enter a trade are no longer there, GET OUT.
In order to move up, I think the battery growth has to happen, they have to decide what they are going to do with MXWL tech, then bring forth new products for more growth. Perhaps they can grow double with China factory but they will need more manufacturing space for Y, semi, truck, and others. This can't happen overnight. There is no rush to own TSLA here and now. I think they are walking a tight rope financially with all this growth and hope the latest round fuels the future.
On TAAS, it is real tough to judge the value. UBER and Lyft are kind of comps, but are in a different sector compared to EVs. One million autonomous taxis on the road in a hear? Horse tonky, all those owners are not going to let them out. They are too busy complaining and manufacturing issues, their 10K clear coats, their paint quality etc... to let loose the car out of their sight. More so true for X/S owners (excess owners). Rare will be the person that puts their car into service. Hence the leasing for TSLA to get the cars back. Perhaps in 3 years the TAAS segment will grow then.
What is wrong with the new chip/computer that they publicly acknowledge that they are already half thru design of the next one?
$300-400 share price might be justifiable when these issues are figured out. Each of them has chance of failure. If all of them have to come true to justify much higher prices, like the half trillion market cap, it really looks hair brained.
What are the chances of the following:
TSLA EV growth to 1M cars a year in next 5 years? I say 25%.
MXWL integration next 3 years? 50%
Increased capacity for all models next 3 years using MXWL tech to scale? 10%
TAAS as being sold by EM next 3 years? 5%
Self driving being allowed in US and elsewhere so that it can be a driver of revenue, next 3 years? 5%
Solar and/or battery adoption in more TSLA households, any time frame? 25%
Large battery storage capacity growth, using MXWL and able to grow to scare, next 3-5 years? 20%
Chances of all of the above happening? Take whatever percent estimates you have given the value drivers of the future and MULTIPLY them together and you get the percent chance of that happening. using the above figures there is 0.00015% chance of all of them happening. If you think there is a 95% chance of each of the above happening, there is only a 73% chance of all of them happening.
In total, their is a slim to none chance of TSLA being a 500 B market cap company any time soon...
The good news, a colleague from work is buying an inventory Model S.
The bad news, he found the car he wanted on Friday and asked Tesla if he needed to reserve it until Saturday - they said "no need to do that"... He goes back Saturday and they've sold it to someone else!
So he's pissed off, but is experiencing the "Telsa Experience" early on. And I guess the overall is good as he will buy another anyway, so two sold.
That's three people I know that are buying now, compared to none over the last 5 years, so for me, demand is soaring!
The bad news, he found the car he wanted on Friday and asked Tesla if he needed to reserve it until Saturday - they said "no need to do that"... He goes back Saturday and they've sold it to someone else!
So he's pissed off, but is experiencing the "Telsa Experience" early on. And I guess the overall is good as he will buy another anyway, so two sold.
That's three people I know that are buying now, compared to none over the last 5 years, so for me, demand is soaring!
The very same thing had already happened ~February of 2013, obviously before the “but, Elon Trump criticizes the media, you can’t criticize the media if Trump does,” game was invented.
Musk/Tesla had the temerity to call out the monkey business that John Broder had used to jump from his NYT energy sector coverage into a guest spot NYT automotive hit piece “test” of Tesla’s SuperCharger network (aside- the NYT’s automotive reporter’s review of the Model S several months earlier was glowing). Nearly all the media, from overtly for profit media to NPR, in lock step aggressively slammed Musk as a defensive ass for not just agreeing with Broder’s fabricated report and apologizing. It read very much like Musk was being shown the full force of punishment from the media tribe as a collective for not simply bending the knee for a member of the their tribe.
In fact, Margaret Sullivan, the NYT Public Editor who eventually acknowledged Broder’s piece was off (though politically/face-savingly watered down) included in her conclusion that her initial instinct was to simply take at face value a reporter’s claim over Tesla/Musk’s claim. Sullivan explicitly wrote that. It was only the fact that her brother happened to be very enthusiastic about Tesla and had reached out to her that led her to go beyond stopping at reflexively agreeing with Broder.
For those unaware of this- in the years since this incident, The NYT has 1) eliminated the public editor position, 2) promoted Broder to its editorial board.
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Tesla deserves to be valued like an automaker... an automaker growing at 50+% per year the past 7 years, and in extremely strong position to grow at ~25% per year for the next decade plus. Company is worth $500/share based on forecasting future earnings of core vehicle business... nil value for RoboTaxi potential included.
bdy0627
Active Member
What crawled up Ives ass? His language is clearly intended to be market moving.
Who knows. Perhaps the same thing that crawled up Dana Hull’s... the WSJ, the NYT, Reuter’s, CNBC, Bloomberg, AP, Fox, CNN, Barron’s, Forbes, the LA Times, Fortune, MarketWatch, NPR, Yahoo Finance, Business Insider, ...
I’m NOT referring to clickbait tunnel vision.
What makes one believe that is still in the cards?
News nullification is much more successful than Tesla.
Well, at least you had Australia in Eurovision to make up for it (well, that was Saturday night over here, early Sunday I guess for you guys)
Totally agree with all of this. Semi, IMO, is Tesla's most important vehicle right now. Profit per unit will be huge, plus decisions on purchase/lease from clients will be purely based on TCO - they will not be influenced by the FUD that might put off the general public.
With a quarter like Q1 2019, the FUD becomes extremely effective and manipulation of the stock is easy. But the FUD becomes far less effective if the company can show that it is consistently profitable. As people have pointed out many times on this thread, the same sort of thing happened to other companies such as Amazon. They were ruthlessly attacked by the doomsayers, but eventually the company's performance just became too good to ignore.
Can you flush this out a little better rather than make the assertion?
Ford sells 7x what TSLA does and has the same market cap
Valuation is about future expectations. Large investors don't see 50% growth going forward.
How will profit per unit be huge? It needs serious investment and 1MWh of cells they don't have.
read my post again, you’ve posted a straw man (not saying intentionally so).
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