Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[avoigt]

Its an incredible amount of FUD and noise out there but actually nothing changed only that the SP dropped.

Tesla is actually today more stable and continues to execute as promised with even more cash after the raise.

Adding that together its a massive attempt to bring the SP down and shows a certain level of desperation maybe they feel like its their last chance.

In situation like that a short squeeze is more likely than ever because dump money goes into derivates and although I do not know the future the likelihood for a reverse is increasing every day.

It never gets boring with Tesla... that's for sure.

 

[wipster]

For everyone's reference, that insurance firm was Fairfax Financial. There's an entire TMC thread about it: Elon Musk vs. Short sellers

Everyone please read this and when you're done read it again, then rinse and repeat. Jesselivenomore (I hope that's not true) hit it right on the head with the Fairfax analogy and that's exactly what Chanos and crew are doing and have been doing to Tesla and Solar City for years. The big difference I can see is that Tesla makes a physical product that it's purchasers love (for the most part) and almost everyone that drives one wants one. But the problem is you would never know that by reading the lies and FUD being published by MSM. How can that be changed? We can't leave it all up to Elon... it's time for Tesla to grow up and prove itself to the world. Time to put our collective heads together and figure out how to help, worldwide.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Nice, but these orders are a product of Canadian subsidies and incentives like Q4 in the US.

Is there anyplace Tesla sales have been on fire without subsidies? Is there any chance of more tax subsidies in the US? That might be what it takes to get Tesla sales and the stock going again.

Well, in California, in Q1, right after the federal tax credit was cut in half, Model 3 was the 3rd best selling vehicle of any kind, and only ~80(!) cars away from the #2.

 

[Krugerrand]

Friday of last week (4 days ago for me), I posted a long-ish post that boiled down to asking for replies regarding the stock price and demand. I've read every post (except those I have on ignore) since then. Nearly 100 pages. If I recall correctly, three people responded to me. I appreciated them taking the time to respond and giving their thoughts. However, nothing in the responses convinced me that there is evidence of demand still being stronger than supply. That viewpoint has been posted here multiple times in the past two months. (Kruggerand, you're going to need to buy more after this post).

Objectively, Tesla is giving signals of falling demand. Price cuts, leasing, discounts, free supercharging, and possibly others I don't recall at the moment.

Last week, the CEO wrote an email regarding continuing to improve efficiencies and lower costs. Not a bad thing, but he included the parts about reviewing every expense report and referenced the Q1 burn rate.

Then today, you cut prices.

If I had a company that had demand greater than my current production abilities, and I'm asking my employees to squeeze everything so we can be profitable, I'm not going to cut prices a week later on my products. That makes zero sense.

If someone can share evidence that demand is stronger than production, I would very much like to see that.

If someone can explain a reason why a company with demand greater than supply would cut prices, I would also very much like to read that.

If demand is falling, I don't think it has anything to do with the quality of the product. It would, however, probably correlate with Tesla not working to own their story.

On it. (Added another share to the pot on your behalf. Thank you ever so much.)

And I can answer your question: Tesla is lowering prices (and will continue to do so) as they become more production efficient, can lower costs anywhere and every where while maintaining a healthy gross margin so they can pump that into growing the business.

Why? Because the goal has always been to get every driving human into an EV asap. That is the goal. The Goal. The whole enchilada. The motivation. The Mission.

There are a few ways to do that. One big way is to make a stellar product. Another significant way is to make the stellar product as affordable as possible for as many people (eventually for all driving humans) as possible.

The latter is why pricing keeps going down as Tesla can afford to do it. I realize it’s a foreign concept to money hungry/money centric/money motivated people to pass cost /production efficiencies onto the customer. Most companies are going to keep that extra money for themselves because that’s how so many people roll.

As a person who is not motivated by money, I can fully grasp and accept without question that Elon Musk is the same. I recognize it in his actions.

If you’re ever to truly understand what motivates people, what causes their reactions and behaviors, you first need to accept that not everyone thinks as you do. That everyone has their own reality. Elon Musk is not average people. It’s why so many people don’t get him, don’t understand why he does and says the things he does, and why there’s such love and hate for him. Love is from the people who appreciate his uniqueness and admire his chutzpah. Hate is from the people who don’t understand him, don’t want to understand him and fear him.

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

I concur completely, well stated.

Same here.
Just the old game of money, power and lies.
The dark side is strong, but in the end Tesla will prevail. Or the human race is doomed.

 

[Dutchie]

I heard about this, a friend of mine on vacation went in there to look at colors and said the staff did not even have computers due to cost cutting and orders were done on paper and mailed to the US. No wonder this scares away potential customers.

There are three stores in Vancouver. I can tell you there are at least ten people at any time looking at cars in each of them. Would that be 800 for each store (2,400) or 800 for all of Vancouver?

 

[Dutchie]

Wish I had a few grand laying around somewhere. I would love to jump in at these prices...

 

[Artful Dodger]

Oddly enough, you can find Bobby Rahal calling out Elon Musk on his Twitter. Rahal owns car dealerships...

Ahaha, so he did. That's it, "no soup for you!"
Cheers!
Bobby Rahal on Twitter

 

[Dutchie]

Wish I had a few grand laying around somewhere. I would love to jump in at these prices...

 

[Artful Dodger]

e-bull-ience becomes prevalent around tops.

I see what you did there...

Cheers!

 

[wnorris]

There are three stores in Vancouver. I can tell you there are at least ten people at any time looking at cars in each of them. Would that be 800 for each store (2,400) or 800 for all of Vancouver?

I have a tough time believing Vancouver as a city is seeing 800 orders a week based on rumor. I would love to see this verified.

2,400 per week for Vancouver is simply a dream. No way that is true.

 

[dqd88]

When the intention is to manipulate the price, it is illegal. This type of behavior was the chief reason behind the 1907 panic that lead to the run on the banks when the Knickerbocker Trust was rumored to be insolvent after a failed corner of the copper market by the Hienz brothers. In the 20s, Michael Meehan of the RCA pool operated the same type of scheme knowning many shares were held by insiders. he accumulated shares, pumped the stock with fake news letters, and sold before the price crashed. After the SEC act was made into law, Mr Meehan was the first person charged for securities violations.

I'm not suggesting a goal of manipulating price. I'm suggesting a goal of buying many shares, which has a byproduct of influencing price.

 

[Dutchie]

I have a tough time believing Vancouver as a city is seeing 800 orders a week based on rumor. I would love to see this verified.

2,400 per week for Vancouver is simply a dream. No way that is true.

Well, there are a lot, and I mean a lot, of wealthy people here and people are pretty environmentally conscious...

 

[Chenkers]

I have a tough time believing Vancouver as a city is seeing 800 orders a week based on rumor. I would love to see this verified.

2,400 per week for Vancouver is simply a dream. No way that is true.

The original post that Cleantechnia picked up the story from is here:

Amusing story. In a recent email with our Tesla rep in Vancouver he explained they are taking 800 orders per week and I assume delivering as many. That’s like 100 cars per day. Pretty amazing for one province. To get the car we would want us 4 to 8 weeks. LR RWD white on white, sport rims, etc. He’s a good rep and keeps us up to date.

Also got an update text from our Nissan rep. We have a Leaf SL Eplus on order. Delivery now expected January 2020. Looks crazy right. 8 month waiting list for our Eplus but only 4 to 8 weeks for a model 3. But here’s the thing. Our dealership is only allowed 18 Leafs per month. Last year they sold close to 250 for the year. My point is it’s the kind of thing that could be spun easy. I can get a Tesla in 4 weeks but because of superior demand it takes 8 months to get a Leaf Eplus.

Just sayin. Things are not always as they first appear.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla Model 3 = 3rd Best Selling Vehicle In California In 1st Quarter | CleanTechnica

Only the Civic and the Camry outsell the Model 3.

Sure on a 'Units' basis. But on a 'Revenue' basis, Model 3 likely outsold Civic+Camry combined (or close to it). All with zero gas and zero pollution.

So where's the civic pride, Honda? Where's the camryaderie, Toyota? I thought so.

Cheers!

 

[dqd88]

I wonder what will change if TSLA moves to the nascent Long Term Stock Exchange (LTSE)?

• Location:San Francisco, California
• Founded May 10, 2019 (6 days ago)

It really comes down to rules on short selling, doesn't it?

Cheers!

Very interesting. Just curious - how did you hear about this? I've not heard of it, seems to be on stealth mode no? Any knowledge of the board members or founders (nothing mentioned in the wiki)? Would be super epic if Elon is behind this and does actually take Tesla there.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Adam Jonas was so bullish back in 2016 that he gave a robotaxi presentation. So as Tesla is getting closer to robotaxi deployment, why is he suddenly bearish??

The clue is in his question at the Q1 ER call - Force Elon to go private & generate fees for his merchant banking mates on the other side of the Chinese wall .. Wall st is as hungry as ever for the next bonus, at the expense of humanity.

Bullish Adam Jonas robotaxi presentation

S Padival on Twitter

Lol, Janus isn't 'suddenly bearish' on TSLA. It was his "Note to Clients" on the morning of the 2018Q2 production report that crashed the SP from $360 at Mon open to $300 by Fri close.

Here's the best part: in his note he wrote that 'Tesla wouldn't be able to produce 4K Model 3s per week until May 2019' (where's the a**hat emoji?)

Now Janus spouts the line "TSLA is [blahblah] and Strategically Undervalued".

Clearly his (thus also MorganStanley's) objective is to broker a buyout deal for Tesla, and rake in the fees. Jolly jokers of Wall St.

Cheers!

 

[GeckOo]

From a Chinese investment forum. No idea its authenticity. For your reference only.

 

[Sunlight]

I watch on all this mayhem with bated breath (as a believer and small investor - which I don't mind losing for the 'cause')

This are maybe naïve questions as I'm not sure how it all works.....

If Tesla can produce and sell x number of cars and be profitable (albeit at a reduced amount) can they go 'bust' if the SP goes really low for whatever reason?

Will the SP get a low level where there can be a 'hostile' takeover by some entity buying a vast number of shares? This may be by another car company to get 'into Tesla' or to phase Tesla out of the equation. Or even a hostile group like big oil.....

Or can it at that point be taken private cheaply? Is Tesla 'too big to fail now' - surely Tesla won't just close the doors and stop all car production; shut down the supercharging network; and go home...?!

If I was Elon, I'd be so tempted to just de-camp to China and Europe and keep a minimal presence in USA if the media/oil/gov/analysts/WS etc are so hostile. F..k the lot of them (and he's not even American really)

 

[T@oo]

Just one additional datapoint:

Tesla

• T@oo
• May 23, 2019

HaHa!