Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tslynk67]

It’s made for companies like Tesla.
Is it too good to be true?

“
Frequently asked questions
How will the Long-Term Stock Exchange differ from stock exchanges that exist already?
The Long-Term Stock Exchange is building the only U.S. stock exchange with a mission to help companies create lasting businesses and empower long term-focused investors.

How will the Long-Term Stock Exchange enable companies to prioritize the long term?
Our intention is to augment (subject to SEC approval) the exchange's listing rules so that when companies list with the exchange to sell shares to the public, they will adopt a set of governing practices that mirror their long-term horizon.

When will the Long-Term Stock Exchange be able to accept listings?
SEC approval marks a major step in our work to build a fully functioning listing and trading venue. The exchange anticipates being ready to accept listings and start trading later this year after completing administrative and technical steps. To learn about listing with the Long-Term Stock Exchange, please email us.

Who can be a member of the Long-Term Stock Exchange?
The exchange is open to any registered broker-dealer who is a member of at least one other national securities exchange and is able to clear trades. Members also can register with the exchange as market makers.
”

Wouldn't it be funny if Tesla were the first company to migrate there, say with a date of 1st July, nothing to do for common stock holders, but no shorting allowed, so all positions needing to be closed

We can dream...

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Even Tesla employees have a lot of stock options, so SP matters, especially if it's low like these days.
Tesla board should try to do something about this, to reassure markets and institutions.

It does surprise me that tesla do not take some very simple, zero-cost (effectively) steps to reassure the markets, the customers, the employees about the health of the company. If I was running teslas PR, I'd make sure to have at least 1 social media post on twitter / facebook / instagram per day that showed something going well, a time-lapse of some cars getting loaded onto a transporter to head off, or even better a train-load of teslas heading off across the country. Why are there no such videos of thousands of tesla model 3's loading onto a ship for Europe or China?
Where are the interviews with the people in the busiest delivery centers and stores showing a constant stream of customers picking up their model 3s? where is the attempt to get #brandnewmodel3 as a hashtag for people to use on delivery day?

None of this costs money.

 

[dqd88]

What if Tesla took their $2.4B cash raise and bought shares and calls representing 30% of TSLA? They'd be in the position to force a short squeeze using exactly the same tactics Porsche Automobil Holding SE used to take over Volkswagen in 2008.

Of course they'd need to let the SP fall to a near 5-year low to get that kind of leverage (4.5x). Say...

Porsche reinvents the short squeeze | NY Times, Oct 30, 2008​

Cheers!

How much money do you think it would take to force a short squeeze?

 

[dqd88]

1) I would like to see a second data point showing that Vancouver is seeing 800 orders per week. To trust a single source can lead to folly.

2) I do not believe 2,400 orders per week coming from a single city is realistic. It is certainly possible for an occasional spike, but this would assume Vancouver is accounting for roughly a third of Tesla worldwide production capacity. Amazing if true, but IMO, highly unlikely. To put this into perspective it would mean that Tesla spends at least two days a week making cars for Vancouver alone.

Are you saying you don't believe 800/wk or 2,400/wk? 800 sounds reasonable for a city of that size, esp on west coast. 2,400 I'd agree sounds high.

 

[Ellec]

How much money do you think it would take to force a short squeeze?

Float is worth $24.6B

 

[Ellec]

$185.75 pre-market

 

[Jayjs20]

$185.75 pre-market

Well I'm already down around 200k, or 80% of my net worth. Might as well lose the rest of it.

 

[Ellec]

Well I'm already down around 200k, or 80% of my net worth. Might as well lose the rest of it.

Are you leveraged at all?

 

[JohnDinger]

Just listened to the Jonas call, and Jesus, this thing is absolutely brutal. I thought Jonas was a bull?

Three most harsh bits:

1 - Jonas called out how damning SolarCity is in that it's increased the cost of capital for the whole company despite being only 10% of the company's valuation.

2 - Jonas thinks that demand is a problem even at current delivery levels (70k/qrtr). What's the point of the Shanghai factory if Tesla is unable to sell full capacity from Fremont?

3 - Jonas doesn't think that Tesla's equity is worth more than its debt.

 

[Todd Burch]

I am holding strong, because I have steel testicles and Wall Street can bite me.

At this point we’re well into shenanigan-land and they are just looking to profit on fear.

This too shall pass, and they’ll push the stock back up again and prey off the weakness of the old saps on the other side.

Selling at this point is foolish. You never know when things will start swinging the other way.

TSLA is a long play. Everything else is pure gambling.

 

[Todd Burch]

One note about ships and international deliveries:

Although Tesla is allegedly trying to unwind the wave, they may still be weighting shipments to US markets this quarter due to the upcoming stepdown in federal tax credits at end of Q2.

This might mean slightly less international deliveries than a typical “unwound” quarter.

 

[Fact Checking]

From a Chinese investment forum. No idea its authenticity. For your reference only.

Here's Elon's (purported) email transcribed:

From: Elon Musk
Date: Wed 5/22/2019 10:45 PM
To: Everybody

As of yesterday, we had over 50,000 net new orders for this quarter. Based on current trends, we have a good
chance of exceeding the record 90,700 deliveries of Q4 [Mod: edited to correct, original transcription wrongly said Q1 --ggr] last year and making this the highest deliveries/sales
quarter in Tesla history!

In order to achieve this, we need sustained output of 1,000 Model 3's per day. Almost all parts of the Model 3
production system have exceeded 1000 units on multiple days (congratulations!!) and we've averaged
about 900/day this week, so we're only about 10% away from 7000/week.

If we rally hard, we can do it!

Thanks for your great work,
Elon​

The tone and content matches Elon - if it's fake it's a good one. China has been a source of internal emails before.

So if this is legit, this is good news. It's still unclear how S/X sales are doing in Q2:

• If they are at 900/day Model 3 production right now, that's a current run-rate of 6,300/week.
• If they manage to further increase it to the target 7,000/week in the final few weeks of June, then they'll maybe have ~6,000/week overall Model 3 production rate for all of Q2, which is a production of ~78,000 Model 3's. (Maybe more.)
  
• The email mentions a goal of higher than 90,700 S+3+X deliveries.
• In Q1 vehicles in transit were ~10k, and if they now increase this to ~15k to unwind the 'wave' delivery method in the next several quarters, then total production would be roughly 5k more than deliveries, i.e. ~96k.
• This means that if Model 3 production is 78k and total production is 96k, then S/X production 18k - better than Q1 but worse than Q2'18.

Another detail in the email: production increase focus is entirely on the Model 3. This could be read in a way to say that Model S/X is at full (or intended) capacity, with no production push there.

Also note the focus on deliveries, i.e. the target for Q2 is record deliveries despite unwinding the wave. (In-transit vehicles are 'sold' vehicles that are not delivered yet, so unwinding the wave would have the effect of reducing deliveries somewhat.)

If this verifies in the delivery report in early July, then this should completely change the current gloom and doom narrative and would paint Q1'19 as the outlier - not Q3-Q4'18 as outliers.

Still 5-6 weeks of heavy FUD until then though - plus in Q1 they originally intended much better deliveries too, so as always there's a real chance of Tesla not meeting these goals.

Not advice.

 

[Jayjs20]

Are you leveraged at all?

Nope, all Jan21 call options, so if it rebounds, I'll be ok.

But I like to expect the worst. Only thing that bothers me is that there's no way for me to safely profit off of this dip since I'm pretty much out of money and rent is still due next month.

 

[Todd Burch]

Wait, is that correct that Q118 deliveries were over 90,000?

 

[saniflash]

But I like to expect the worst. Only thing that bothers me is that there's no way for me to safely profit off of this dip since I'm pretty much out of money and rent is still due next month.

In same boat. Lesson learned

 

[bramsvs]

Wait, is that correct that Q118 deliveries were over 90,000?

No, the screenshot states Q4.

 

[Ellec]

Nope, all Jan21 call options, so if it rebounds, I'll be ok.

But I like to expect the worst. Only thing that bothers me is that there's no way for me to safely profit off of this dip since I'm pretty much out of money and rent is still due next month.

Jan 21, depends on the strike. But if it grinds lower or they have a few bad quarters theta could eat you up. However it's far enough out to catch a big rebound

 

[Todd Burch]

If that is email is real (and if Musk is referring to Model 3 orders) then current order rate is 6,730 Model 3s per week. Not bad given it’s not the strongest typical car demand quarter and several markets still haven’t opened up or are just opening up (Australia/UK). Many in China are likely waiting for GF3, and we are at peak FUD. Demand should grow beyond that over the next year.

 

[Todd Burch]

No, the screenshot states Q4.

Ok thanks, thought I was losing my mind there. I feel like I would have remembered that .

 

[Leo9]

Here's Elon's (purported) email transcribed:

From: Elon Musk
Date: Wed 5/22/2019 10:45 PM
To: Everybody

As of yesterday, we had over 50,000 net new orders for this quarter. Based on current trends, we have a good
chance of exceeding the record 90,700 deliveries of Q1 last year and making this the highest deliveries/sales
quarter in Tesla history!

In order to achieve this, we need sustained output of 1,000 Model 3's per day. Almost all parts of the Model 3
production system have exceeded 1000 units on multiple days (congratulations!!) and we've averaged
about 900/day this week, so we're only about 10% away from 7000/week.

If we rally hard, we can do it!

Thanks for your great work,
Elon​

The tone and content matches Elon - if it's fake it's a good one. China has been a source of internal emails before.

So if this is legit, this is good news. It's still unclear how S/X sales are doing in Q2:

• If they are at 900/day Model 3 production right now, that's a current run-rate of 6,300/week.
• If they manage to further increase it to the target 7,000/week in the final few weeks of June, then they'll maybe have ~6,000/week overall Model 3 production rate for all of Q2, which is a production of ~78,000 Model 3's. (Maybe more.)
  
• The email mentions a goal of higher than 90,700 S+3+X deliveries.
• In Q1 vehicles in transit were ~10k, and if they now increase this to ~15k to unwind the 'wave' delivery method in the next several quarters, then total production would be roughly 5k more than deliveries, i.e. ~96k.
• This means that if Model 3 production is 78k and total production is 96k, then S/X production 18k - better than Q1 but worse than Q2'18.

Another detail in the email: production increase focus is entirely on the Model 3. This could be read in a way to say that Model S/X is at full (or intended) capacity, with no production push there.

Also note the focus on deliveries, i.e. the target for Q2 is record deliveries despite unwinding the wave. (In-transit vehicles are 'sold' vehicles that are not delivered yet, so unwinding the wave would have the effect of reducing deliveries somewhat.)

If this verifies in the delivery report in early July, then this should completely change the current gloom and doom narrative and would paint Q1'19 as the outlier - not Q3-Q4'18 as outliers.

Still 5-6 weeks of heavy FUD until then though - plus in Q1 they originally intended much better deliveries too, so as always there's a real chance of Tesla not meeting these goals.

Not advice.

Hopefully the email is real... but I'll wait for electrek to confirm it.
I'm curious about the "50,000 net new orders" Only model 3 orders?