Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dc_h]

Better cooling

Yes, cooling is key to track mode. Sustained output is different on the 3 pack vs SX packs.

 

[kbM3]

Is the cooling in the 3 pack really better than the cooling in the 100kWh S&X pack?

Track mode is mainly made possible by the non-induction rear motor and the Tesla designed and programmed VDC. Neither of which exist in the Model S or X. (Though they may be moving toward the Tesla VDC with the new adaptive suspension.)

The main problem with high-speed/track use in the S&X is the large induction rear motor. It overheats very quickly, and the heat is next to impossible to remove from the rotor. It isn't the battery pack.

The main problem with Model S for the track is the size. There’s a very good reason why the smaller German sports sedans carry the banner for the Germans and not the S class, A8 or 7 series.

 

[mikevbf]

Today's whole trading scenario has been a game of whack the mole as shorts scurry to keep TSLA out of the green. Now the game is whack the mole any time he pokes his head above 190. It's ok shorts, the SEC isn't minding the store, you can get away with it.

Edit: A close above 190 would be awesome because it would mean the shortie-machine is failing to control the stock price on a down macro day.

Well that was a valiant effort going into the close!

 

[neroden]

...one thing, about your earlier comment where he shouldn’t be allowed on qtrly conf calls.

would any of us be saying this if the stock was at 315 right now?

Adam Jonas should *never* have been allowed on quarterly conference calls. He is an *idiot* and a *time-waster*. Have you heard Elon's astonished "Really?" reactions to his previous questions? Put some real investors on the conference calls.

 

[DaveT]

The letter is supposed to be to employees--so he is focused on motivating them for the quarter, which makes sense. He doesn't need to address long-term goals with employees.

Elon knows his emails will be leaked to the public, so he's also setting the narrative for investors as well.

 

[Todd Burch]

Elon knows his emails will be leaked to the public, so he's also setting the narrative for investors as well.

I certainly concede that point.

 

[DaveT]

Yes, the financial guidance should come from the CFO - like it did this time. Musk should just use that. If Musk is not on a ER call, can you imagine all the FUD that would result ?.

I don't think it will be a big deal if Elon says he's not going to be on ER calls going forward. Bezos hasn't been on a quarterly conference call for years.

 

[DaveT]

...one thing, about your earlier comment where he shouldn’t be allowed on qtrly conf calls.

would any of us be saying this if the stock was at 315 right now?

Yes, I've been saying the same thing (that Elon shouldn't be on quarterly conference calls) even when the stock was in the 3XXs.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

Couldn't agree more. When Elon (or Zack) now says 90-100k for Q2, there's no market reaction at all, just sets up a fall when it's 89k or 91k, whatever.

If they stated 80k, then turn-in 90k, the SP would rise, I'm certain of it.

Under-promise, over-deliver.

If Tesla has record deliveries in Q2, I’d love for Q3 guidance to be Q2 deliveries +1, with a statement that internal goals are substantially higher.

When it becomes clear that deliveries will be materially higher than guidance, issue updated guidance, and enjoy the SP bounce that comes from the raised guidance. Of course, make sure the updated guidance is very likely to be less than the final numbers.

Wash, rinse, repeat. Just make a habit of setting bearable delivery goals & beating them.

 

[mikevbf]

Not sure what he means by break even here.

Does he mean breaking even on US margins(a lower ASP mix) vs Oversea margins (higher ASP mix)? This is what I gathered and not that deliveries per car is SO expensive that it eats away all 25+% margins on higher ASP mixes. That will just be ridiculous and the most expensive shipment ever.

The problem isn't what he means, it's how easy it is to take those words out of context as ammo for the shorts. But I agree with your general assessment. Thanks

 

[DaveT]

Couldn't agree more. When Elon (or Zack) now says 90-100k for Q2, there's no market reaction at all, just sets up a fall when it's 89k or 91k, whatever.

If they stated 80k, then turn-in 90k, the SP would rise, I'm certain of it.

Under-promise, over-deliver.

Exactly. It's like the same horror flick shown over and over all these years.

 

[neroden]

What do you make of the "break even" part of the email?

Tesla is attempting to get to full-cycle profit, i.e. breaking even for the year on GAAP accounting. Every excess cost makes it harder to do that. If the delivery logistics remain bad, with excessive costs due to poor routing, the need to pay for expedited shipping due to bad planning, etc., then this makes it harder to break even.

They need some sort of centralized master database which has (a) all orders, with their configurations, (b) the home/delivery location of each order, (c) the location of all possible delivery centers and storage lots, (d) the location of every car with its specific configuration, and (e) all the different methods of moving cars from one place to another, with how fast they are. Then they can try out different schemes for logistics in each area. I suspect from communications I've had with Tesla that they don't have the proper Information Technology support to really optimize this, though if we're lucky they're building that support. If they get it right they might even start delivering cars to people when they *say* they're going to, which they haven't been able to do lately.

 

[JRP3]

Yes, I've been saying the same thing (that Elon shouldn't be on quarterly conference calls) even when the stock was in the 3XXs.

Stock would take a hit the first time he wasn't on.

 

[KSilver2000]

Couldn't agree more. When Elon (or Zack) now says 90-100k for Q2, there's no market reaction at all, just sets up a fall when it's 89k or 91k, whatever.

If they stated 80k, then turn-in 90k, the SP would rise, I'm certain of it.

Under-promise, over-deliver.

Understated idea of the century. Not sure why Elon/Tesla cannot get this. Many of us here have been saying this every quarter and every time Musk blurts out numbers from random places.

Apple has done this very well over time.

 

[EVNow]

- it was said in Q1 CC that 2019 will be a year of TE, because they finally figured out that there won't be enough Panasonic cells, so they went and found some extra supply from different suppliers - Sumsung etc. TE cells also don't need to be of as high a quality as automotive cells

Do we know they have found new long term suppliers - it sounded like they were opportunistically purchasing some "scraps".

Either way - it looks weird to switch the cells for S/X, knowing next year they will not have enough cells for Semi/Y. Is this just personal desire of some folks to own S/X with 2170 cells ? Nothing wrong with that - but not sure that's optimal from Tesla POV.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Stock would take a hit the first time he wasn't on.

Not sure I agree with that. The retail investors might see it as a bad thing but the big money would probably love it.

Dan

 

[AlMc]

As to the EM being on the calls debate: I do not remember which relatively recent call it was but, IMO, the best call scenario is EM is there BUT he puts all his various commanders on to talk about their areas of the company.....CFO, Jerome, Karparthy, JB.....etc and direct analysts' questions to the appropriate person.

He could give a short preamble or post script....AND STAY on SCRIPT

 

[EVNow]

Apple has done this very well over time.

Apple stopped giving unit numbers, right ? They caught a lot of grief for that - but nobody is cribbing about it now.

 

[Boomer19]

Yes, I've been saying the same thing (that Elon shouldn't be on quarterly conference calls) even when the stock was in the 3XXs.

yeah i think i remember you saying as much last year after Q1 call debacle

he’s foot in mouth sometimes. and i think the autonomy day claims have a significant contribution (along with others) to the recent market narrative and decline (whether we agree or not, irrelevant - it was used as a weapon against tsla)

but i’m still for hearing from him, rather than not. one thing we know, attendance would definitely be reduced if he wasn’t on calls

 

[gtrplyr1]

Just had some relatives over for lunch and wanted to relay a story. We were discussing EV's and Tesla and my cousin said: "I heard they are going bankrupt". He also went on to say they would never have a car near $35k so I took him to the website and we pretended to order a Model 3. We had the entire family gathered around my laptop where I preceded to pull up the standard range Model 3 with no options (Black, stock wheels, black interior and no autopilot) ... total was $39,900 and I told them they could still get $3750 in tax credits. Brings us to $36,150 .... which seemed to shock them. Not sure if they get any additional incentives from their state (TX) but even without any additional incentives they were pleasantly surprised. The next thing he said was: " yeah but when will I get the car? I heard they were really backed up" .... I told him it wouldn't be out of the question to get it in a few weeks. I'm not exactly sure but I'm under the impression that what I told him was accurate. Of course there was also the question about range and where to charge ....

All of which tells me that once again Tesla has to do a better job of educating the average consumer ... I know Elon's not a fan of advertising but I think Tesla needs to give it serious consideration ... just to educate the public.

Cheers to the longs ...