Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Leo9]

link?

https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/b2218d34-fbee-4f1f-ac95-050eb29dd42f

"We believe we will deliver between 90,000 and 100,000 vehicles in Q2. Although it is possible to deliver a higher number of vehicles, we believe it is important to begin unwinding the "wave" approach to vehicle deliveries, where overseas cars have been made in the first half of the quarter and North American cars have been made in the second half. This puts extreme stress on Tesla, negatively affects our working capital needs and adds to our cost structure."

Expectations are obviously lower right now.

 

[Fred42]

No, the exact opposite is the case: Tesla already ordered Model Y tooling end of last year (which is ~80% of the cost of a new factory), which they could install in Fremont or in Nevada.

Installing it in Fremont saves time and capex, see this comment of mine back in January that interpreted the 75D changes as a sign that Fremont might get expanded for the Model Y:



If the leaks are accurate they appear to be using ALL the Fremont expansion methods I outlined.



Yes, it's possible I think, because they save construction time (GF1 is full): Shanghai took 6 months at China pace - Nevada would have been 9 months at minimum IMO.

There's also time needed to build and train a new workforce - while this is much more readily available at Fremont.

So building the Model Y at Fremont is accelerating the Model Y timeline by about 9-12 months IMO, and it also reduces ramp-up risks and speeds up not just installation but also ramp-up.

Isn't an impact of 9-12 months pretty optimistic?

 

[Pezpunk]

https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/b2218d34-fbee-4f1f-ac95-050eb29dd42f

"We believe we will deliver between 90,000 and 100,000 vehicles in Q2. Although it is possible to deliver a higher number of vehicles, we believe it is important to begin unwinding the "wave" approach to vehicle deliveries, where overseas cars have been made in the first half of the quarter and North American cars have been made in the second half. This puts extreme stress on Tesla, negatively affects our working capital needs and adds to our cost structure."

Expectations are obviously lower right now.

it also appears they are still doing the wave.

 

[AndyH]

Known in Norwegian as Kristi himmelfartsdag.

So this is Christ's heavenly fart day in Norway? Okay...

In other news deliveries to Sweden are slower than last quarter. Few cars have arrived and most that have ordered seem to get delivery in June. Public knowledge about SR+ is minimal here and FUD is plentiful. I really thought SR+ would make a bigger splash. But we're still climbing out of the bottom of the s-curve so it should get a lot better soon.

 

[MP3Mike]

They tried hard to get me decent trade-in, but in the end they were 11K short from the offer on my private sale.

BTW, for those that don't know, such a trade in saves me taxes which on $CAD60K trade-in car is $CAD7.8K.

Or I can take a Tesla trade-in which is only $13K less than what I get privately...

So which is it? 11k less or 13k less? But if you take tax into account wouldn't it be 3.2k or 5.2k less?

 

[Boomer19]

OT: regarding #3, should maybe push the safety angle. Safest car ever, and with kids/future kids inside you know you have the safest product to protect them.

i did make that a huge point to her!

 

[HG Wells]

it also appears they are still doing the wave.

Ripples, it's only ripples.

 

[Doggydogworld]

As of May 10th 2019 the new, faster, lines weren't operational yet. They are hoping to bring them online in June. Tesla battery partner Panasonic sees higher Gigafactory output, cites Model S/X demand increase

The translator struggled in that section so it's a little unclear how well the new lines are operating. We know they started installing the high speed lines in late 2018 and we know they went from a 19-20 GWh in fall of 2018 to 25 GWh this spring. We know they shut down Powerwall and Powerpack production last fall and still could barely supply 61k Model 3s, but were able to restart Powerwall and Powerpacks in Q1 while supplying 63k Model 3s. So the new lines clearly provided some capacity, even if they aren't running at 100%.

We also know the new lines, even at full tilt, only take GF1 to about 27 GWh. Yet Tsuga reiterated that they had all the equipment in place for 35 GWh. That really only makes sense if they plan to upgrade the older lines from 300k to 400k cells/day. Tsuga also talked about a problem that arose when switching from 18650s that they will now fix (again, the translation is a bit garbled). So it seems the "jigs" coming in June somehow fix an issue that arose when they installed the original 2170 lines in Nevada.

 

[elasalle]

You can't make this stuff up.

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is down another 1% premarket to $188/share after Barclays cut its price target on the stock to $150 (from $192) following the latest comments from Elon Musk.

"While our demand is strong, we have a lot of vehicle deliveries to catch up to in order to have a successful quarter," he wrote in a company-wide email reported by multiple media outlets.

Barclays analyst Brian Johnson now appears less convinced that the group can meet its stated aim of delivering between 360,000 and 400,000 vehicles this year, after recording only 63,000 in the first quarter.

Tesla Drifts Lower After Barclays Price Cut, Musk Plea For Deliveries 'Catch up'

Aren't these guys, in a way refuting AJ's bogus claim that bear case is $10? That's worth something in it's self.

 

[elasalle]

China event tomorrow.
InsideEV's May estimates next week ...

 

[LJS22]

Nice early movement going on for TSLA. I expect some push back from this. Seems to be the norm lately

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Barclays analyst Brian Johnson now appears less convinced that the group can meet its stated aim of delivering between 360,000 and 400,000 vehicles this year, after recording only 63,000 in the first quarter.

I like how analysts are simultaneously concerned about a lack of demand and Tesla having trouble delivering to customers due to overwhelming demand.

 

[Wooloomooloo]

to add insult to injury during this plummet over the last few months -
i haven’t had the good luck that others here have had in trying to sway people to buy ev over ice. so far for a few reasons;

1) friend from work bought an A4 over model 3 bc he lives in manhattan, street parks, and doesn’t want to wait around charging. even though we’ve opened up many new stations in the reinstate area, also i pleaded with him to compare expenses and weigh the extra minutes of charging versus about $100 more in gas cost alone per mo.
let alone maint..over life of ownership.

I have a little sympathy for him here - there are no chargers in Manhattan at all that do not charge valet parking fees, and some of them are really high. The best offer is the Brooklyn Botanical gardens, and your friend could cross the Brooklyn or Manhattan bridge free and then it's $6 for the first hour and $3 for additional hours at non-peak times, so still cheaper than gas prices in NYC.

But the ones in Manhattan can charge $12 - $15 for parking per hour. If he's doing that anyway as part of his commute, then fine. but if he doesn't then suddenly the total cost for charging is higher than filling up with gas. The level 2 chargers scattered about usually limit you to 2 hours of charging, and charge at between 3 and 6 Kw so are not practical other than to put back in the power you used getting there.

I'm in Brooklyn and also can't charge at home, and I charge every 1 - 2 weeks when leaving the City to go somewhere else, and just swallow the Bridge/Tunnel fees as a cost of living expense in NYC. I would make these trips even with an ICE car, so it's not adding to my cost, but if you generally just drive around the city and don't have home charging, it's hard to make a financial case for ownership.

 

[printf42]

China event tomorrow.
InsideEV's May estimates next week ...

Actually China event is tonight in US time, should be done before market open tomorrow.

 

[Doggydogworld]

it also appears they are still doing the wave.

They clearly scheduled more time between EU-bound ships this quarter. The May ramp in Norway, the Netherlands and Spain was more gradual than the February ramp. This hints at unwinding. But so far I don't see any ships scheduled to dock at Pier 80 after the Grand Quest on 6/4. If that ends up being the last ship for 3+ weeks, then say hello to the new wave, same as the old wave. But it's too early to be certain.

 

[Boomer19]

I have a little sympathy for him here - there are no chargers in Manhattan at all that do not charge valet parking fees, and some of them are really high. The best offer is the Brooklyn Botanical gardens, and your friend could cross the Brooklyn or Manhattan bridge free and then it's $6 for the first hour and $3 for additional hours at non-peak times, so still cheaper than gas prices in NYC.

But the ones in Manhattan can charge $12 - $15 for parking per hour. If he's doing that anyway as part of his commute, then fine. but if he doesn't then suddenly the total cost for charging is higher than filling up with gas. The level 2 chargers scattered about usually limit you to 2 hours of charging, and charge at between 3 and 6 Kw so are not practical other than to put back in the power you used getting there.

I'm in Brooklyn and also can't charge at home, and I charge every 1 - 2 weeks when leaving the City to go somewhere else, and just swallow the Bridge/Tunnel fees as a cost of living expense in NYC. I would make these trips even with an ICE car, so it's not adding to my cost, but if you generally just drive around the city and don't have home charging, it's hard to make a financial case for ownership.

yeah no doubt. i’d be skeptical if i lived in city. although, his commute is to greenwich office for work. so he has options along hutch/merritt and 95 at this point.

there were options. but it’s little bit of a lifestyle change as far as charging. i can see both sides of it. and the urban consumer is the hardest to get because of not being able to charge at home (unless you’re paying 500/700+ for a garage spot already

 

[trentbridge]

They clearly scheduled more time between EU-bound ships this quarter. The May ramp in Norway, the Netherlands and Spain was more gradual than the February ramp. This hints at unwinding. But so far I don't see any ships scheduled to dock at Pier 80 after the Grand Quest on 6/4. If that ends up being the last ship for 3+ weeks, then say hello to the new wave, same as the old wave. But it's too early to be certain.

The US to China trade flow and the US West Coast to Europe trade flow is the weaker side of the trade - so shipping companies are anxious to find any cargo moving to China or Europe because it helps fill what is a pretty empty ship...so a) rates are lower and b) the ship doesn't have to be filled to capacity to justify the port call. Therefore we don't know if the shipments of Tesla vehicles are larger in Q2 than Q1. It is possible that Tesla started the Q1 shipments at a low level to allow the importing countries get used to vehicles arriving at four to five times the volume of the Model S/X previously. Then they ramped up in late February - causing a logjam of Model 3s arriving in the last fifteen days of the quarter. It is possible that, to avoid the wave, Tesla has sent larger shipments on the first two or three sailings this quarter..

 

[shootformoon]

Charging is a legit barrier especially for street parking people. But the least we can do is to ask people to just lease the ICE. So they can reevaluate in 3 years and not stuck with possible collapsing resale value.

to add insult to injury during this plummet over the last few months -
i haven’t had the good luck that others here have had in trying to sway people to buy ev over ice. so far for a few reasons;

1) friend from work bought an A4 over model 3 bc he lives in manhattan, street parks, and doesn’t want to wait around charging. even though we’ve opened up many new stations in the reinstate area, also i pleaded with him to compare expenses and weigh the extra minutes of charging versus about $100 more in gas cost alone per mo.
let alone maint..over life of ownership.

didn’t budge - lost.

2) still fighting
my girlfriends friend - lives and covers territory for work in greenville section of NC. also no charging at home, but the SC network looks bleak in her area within 45 min drive. she wants to do it, but it depends on the expectation of charging (im checking supercharger info and chargepoint - and she’s going to get back to me with more accurate map of her work territory. also will inquire with her apt complex

3) still fighting
i’m working on my best friends wife to allow him to purchase. i put together the relevant spreadsheet of cost comparison.
shes all about monthly payment rather than life of ownership. i’m still working on that one too.

moral of story;
the early adopters, i know dozens of people who have already purchased and who have followed tesla close enough to be considered “in the know”. certainly know more than the hack ‘journalists’ in MSM. maybe don’t know as much as many posters here. but we’re just weird, so it’s understandable. we’ve already had some people buy due to experiencing our cars. now we’re out on the fringe cases and into the next wave of customers who aren’t following closely but who’s interest is piqued.

my record so far is - unsuccessful in 1, possibly limited by charging on another, and a sticker-jaded wife on the 3rd (even though i explained that they’d basically need to buy a used car for like 10k less for their usage rate to break even over life of ownership). i’m still battling for victory on that one. and i’m betting that if they get it, shell be the one who ends up driving it most anyway

 

[Wooloomooloo]

yeah no doubt. i’d be skeptical if i lived in city. although, his commute is to greenwich office for work. so he has options along hutch/merritt and 95 at this point.

there were options. but it’s little bit of a lifestyle change as far as charging. i can see both sides of it. and the urban consumer is the hardest to get because of not being able to charge at home (unless you’re paying 500/700+ for a garage spot already

Agreed - and it's something that really needs to be solved, because frankly wealthy urbanites are some of the most likely early customers, and EV adoption in cities would really help with pollution. NYC seems to be dragging its feet with providing chargers.

 

[Nocturnal]

Regarding street parking etc. Smart cities are starting to install chargers on street light poles etc.

It's in excusable that wealthy/liberal cities wouldn't be pushing hard for EV adoption. It's so comforting to know that Democrats can be short sighted and stupid as well. :/

I like how analysts are simultaneously concerned about a lack of demand and Tesla having trouble delivering to customers due to overwhelming demand.

Yes this!

to add insult to injury during this plummet over the last few months -
i haven’t had the good luck that others here have had in trying to sway people to buy ev over ice. so far for a few reasons;

1) friend from work bought an A4 over model 3 bc he lives in manhattan, street parks, and doesn’t want to wait around charging. even though we’ve opened up many new stations in the reinstate area, also i pleaded with him to compare expenses and weigh the extra minutes of charging versus about $100 more in gas cost alone per mo.
let alone maint..over life of ownership.

didn’t budge - lost.

2) still fighting
my girlfriends friend - lives and covers territory for work in greenville section of NC. also no charging at home, but the SC network looks bleak in her area within 45 min drive. she wants to do it, but it depends on the expectation of charging (im checking supercharger info and chargepoint - and she’s going to get back to me with more accurate map of her work territory. also will inquire with her apt complex

3) still fighting
i’m working on my best friends wife to allow him to purchase. i put together the relevant spreadsheet of cost comparison.
shes all about monthly payment rather than life of ownership. i’m still working on that one too.

moral of story;
the early adopters, i know dozens of people who have already purchased and who have followed tesla close enough to be considered “in the know”. certainly know more than the hack ‘journalists’ in MSM. maybe don’t know as much as many posters here. but we’re just weird, so it’s understandable. we’ve already had some people buy due to experiencing our cars. now we’re out on the fringe cases and into the next wave of customers who aren’t following closely but who’s interest is piqued.

my record so far is - unsuccessful in 1, possibly limited by charging on another, and a sticker-jaded wife on the 3rd (even though i explained that they’d basically need to buy a used car for like 10k less for their usage rate to break even over life of ownership). i’m still battling for victory on that one. and i’m betting that if they get it, shell be the one who ends up driving it most anyway

#1 I understand. Street parking is a killer, assuming he doesn't have a parking garage at work to charge in.
#2 No home charging, can't she add one?