Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[BOBTHEJOCKEY]

Overnight? Try faster and higher.
All those waiting for 150, one blink and the sale of the century is gone. Poof!
Good news, I haven't left the ship and ready for liftoff.
90K in Q2. Demand my ass.

It's all about AUTOPILOT. Autopilot is kind off worthless if you have to baby sit it all the time. It will not have to be legal to stop paying attention because people will start figuring out ways of how to override the warning system. Once you start hearing stories of people falling asleep, or having sex with ZERO accidents confidence will build rapidly. Not long after that the autopilot Tesla Taxi will EXPLODE onto the scene. The early players will make a fortune while Uber and Lyft drivers will be unemployed. When Tesla achieves autopilot it will OWN IT like Google and search, Apple and Iphones FB and social media. It's a winner take all folks. It's all about data. The company that sells the most autopilot cars will have the most data. Tesla market cap 30 Billion Aapl market cap 1000 BILLION that's a 33 BAGGER.

 

[Freder Reeve]

WTF? If I had a nearly new car that needed wheel repair, going to the dealer/manufacturer would be my first choice.

Simply google your zip code + mobile wheel repair service.
Done. (save enough money to buy more $TSLA - and let Tesla service work on REAL issues)

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

Rivian doesn't have to be better then Tesla necessarily, just close enough, but better than ICE.... Something that will be easier and easier to do as time goes on and EV tech get better and batteries get cheaper.

That's just not true. Every car Tesla makes is leaps and bounds better than anything ever made. Still, it's hard to convince the idiots of that. There will be people that will insist on an ICE F150 for the nest 40 years.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Correct, there are many wheel repair facilities as well as a good supply of used Tesla wheels of all types on ebay and on this site for sale.

Tesla SC specifically pointed me to one of their authorized repair shops for that. They did a great job, too.

 

[RFernatt]

It's not just Fiat buying credits from Tesla...

GM and Fiat Chrysler are buying Tesla's regulatory credits

GM and Fiat Chrysler are buying Tesla’s regulatory credits – TechCrunch

"Meanwhile, GM’s first and only credit purchase has been more recent and with a specific mission in mind. GM already produces an all-electric vehicle, the Chevy Bolt, and until recently was making a plug-in hybrid, the Chevy Volt. These sales would seem to be more than enough to offset sales of its vehicles with tailpipe emissions. And it has been. GM contends this is an insurance policy against future regulatory uncertainties.

“We do not need credits for compliance today, but purchasing credits is permitted under the regulations and is used as an insurance policy against future regulatory uncertainties,” a GM spokesperson said in an emailed comment.” The filing is a routine procedure that is used to protect interests in performance of contractual obligations.”

 

[xhawk101]

Is it time to call a bottom? Bets on a number? I'll say 173.

 

[Pras]

..

Is it time to call a bottom? Bets on a number? I'll say 173.

176.99

 

[Big Blue 1011]

Is it time to call a bottom? Bets on a number? I'll say 173.

Carter Worth just called the bottom on Fast Money. "Shorts should cover"

Tim Seymour pushed back but Carter wasn't having any of it. He stuck to his guns.

 

[Navin]

I bought weeklies.

 

[Steve m]

I don't have to watch videos, I do believe progress is impressive.

The problem with FSD is that anecdotes do not mean data. If a camera only approach can reconstruct 99.99% of the scenes, that is still not going to be good enough! I have faith that Tesla can aggregate all the key data to ramp up camera-object identification accuracy as much as possible giving the data and deep RL methods, but how could I possibly be confident its going to get to a certain number of .99999 digits? I work in ML and I would be insane to be so confident in the eventual accuracy of my work.

You have to assume probabilistic outcomes. If the camera based approach is only 99.99% reliable, where does that leave Tesla in terms leveraging the technology? I am more optimistic it means people will pay some more money for L2 (maybe L3) that can handle more roads.

It will NOT allow robotaxis (outside of constrained environments). Thus the financial valuation changes.

I am not saying Tesla will not achieve L4/L5 with cameras. I am saying I would give it a 10% chance. The "expected value" of valuation (say $4000/share if successful) given that would still be much higher than the current stock price, so it is a rationale bet.

But enough with the crazy talk, you crazies

I have been known to break for halucinations.

 

[kaz90]

Damodaran updates valuation (still grossly undervalues TSLA), buys shares: Musings on Markets: Tesla's Travails: Curfew for a Corporate Teenager?

 

[EinSV]

Damodaran updates valuation (still grossly undervalues TSLA), buys shares: Musings on Markets: Tesla's Travails: Curfew for a Corporate Teenager?

That is just hilarious. Even one of TSLA's longest standing bears thinks Tesla is now beaten down enough that it is a buy (barely).

Too funny.

Here are some of his past valuations for context:

Sept. 2013, SP was $170, he valued it at $67.
May 2014, SP in the 260s, he valued it at $114.
July 2015, SP in the 220s, he valued it at $123.
June/July 2016, SP in the $200s, he valued it at $151.
June 2017, SP well into the 300s, he valued it at $192.
June 2018, SP was $350, he valued it at $170-$180.

 

[CalX]

Just got a client to buy a model 3 LR, +1 for team Tesla

 

[neroden]

And for the record I do expect them to reduce costs eventually, 8-10k still seems like a large hill to climb, it just stings extra right now with struggling production numbers. If they can achieve the level of demand I believe is out there in the next few quarters then its not a near term problem.

On the topic of costs, they cut the Homelink chip recently:

(Fred link)
https://electrek.co/2019/05/31/tesla-homelink-not-standard-model-3-features-aftermarket/

It can be installed by Tesla Service for $300 if you request it.

I've been thinking about this and I think it's correct. It's a third-party chip and the licensing fee is probably high. People who park outdoors, or in shared apartment-building-style parking garages, or have manual garage doors simply don't use it.

Now, the patents on Homelink should have expired (circa 2017). So it should be possible for Tesla to create a home-brewed garage door opener implementation and implement it in much cheaper than whatever they're paying in licensing fees. They clearly have not done that yet. But in the meantime, getting out from the licensing fees may be a meaningful cost reduction, and a lot of people don't use the feature at all.

The Model Y replacement of 70 parts with 5 in the rear will probably be adopted by the Model 3.

There's gonna be a lot of this stuff.

 

[Navin]

On the topic of costs, they cut the Homelink chip recently:

(Fred link)
Tesla removes Homelink from standard Model 3 features, now a $300 aftermarket product - Electrek

It can be installed by Tesla Service for $300 if you request it.

I've been thinking about this and I think it's correct. It's a third-party chip and the licensing fee is probably high. People who park outdoors or have manual garage doors simply don't use it.

Now, the patents on Homelink should have expired (circa 2017). So it should be possible for Tesla to create a home-brewed garage door opener implementation and implement it in much cheaper than whatever they're paying in licensing fees. They clearly have not done that yet. But in the meantime, getting out from the licensing fees may be a meaningful cost reduction, and a lot of people don't use the feature at all.

The Model Y replacement of 70 parts with 5 in the rear will probably be adopted by the Model 3.

There's gonna be a lot of this stuff.

Just curious / how have you been responding to recent weakness in Tesla? Buying / selling? Any sense on when we climb out of this mess?

 

[Zero CO2]

First lesson of stock investing, which most people never learn:
-- do not attempt to find a logical or sensible reason for short-term individual stock price moves, most of the time there isn't one which you can find

SP follows a random walk ... I remember reading a book way back in grad school ... anyone?

 

[anthonyj]

How much did it cost you. I need to replace my front bumper.

I didn’t get my front replaced, but expect 1/4th or 1/2 the price of other body shops (serious).

 

[Zero CO2]

Also with all the anti-Rivian talk earlier, I hope they succeed. Need more than 1 horse pulling the EV train.

We need a few successes to get the battery costs in line ... lets see who is the runner up in AP/FSD... then there will be a bunch of contract vehicle ODMs to supply the BEVs to that winner ... sound familiar

 

[neroden]

Ev-CPO would probably be a good gauge of the status of Tesla Inventory models, so you're not region locked.

Today's EV-CPO snapshot of inventory (I am not including used cars):

-- 35 Model 3 (19 US / 16 Canada)
-- 93 Model X (14 US / 51 Canada / 23 Europe / 5 Asia-Pacific)
-- 762 Model S (484 US / 73 Canada / 163 Europe / 42 Asia-Pacific)

Only 8 of the US Model S have the "adaptive" suspension. And none of the European or Canadian Model S.

So I'm pretty darn sure the rest of those Model S are pre-Raven. Tesla may have to discount and write down those to move them; maybe $8 million impact. Interestingly, pre-Raven Xes seem to have flown off the lot.

 

[Spacemanspliff]

The Model Y replacement of 70 parts with 5 in the rear will probably be adopted by the Model 3.

There's gonna be a lot of this stuff.

Now that is something I thought of when he said that, how many parts can they effectively “redo” through the Model Y.