Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[carterm2]

guys hit a buy button between 10:25 - 10:29

ok. done 10:30 50

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

My cash in lieu of fractional shares from the Maxwell merger finally showed up today.

 

[LN1_Casey]

My cash in lieu of fractional shares from the Maxwell merger finally showed up today.

Use it to buy more Tesla stocks?

 

[Zero CO2]

Also, even if BEVs are just as dirty as ICE, you can remove the pollution to a central source where you produce less and is easier to mitigate as opposed to inhaling toxic fumes every time you drive anywhere....less air pollution where you live. Who can deny that is worth something? Eh, I give people too much credit...

reduced local pollution it is worth a lot in addition BEVs will continue to improve in terms of overall emissions as the electric grid gets cleaner over time ... wind/solar/hydro... recycling batteries ...working with the natural world instead of against it like ICE/FF

 

[Icer]

Everyone is nervous
Only sure thing has been no sure thing

Montana Skeptic on latest teslaQ podcast said he lost a ton shorting TSLA
Advises, shorting in general,
Dont do it, go
ETFs or in the money longer term puts if you must.

OT:
Amazon Rivian?
Rivian R1T Electric Truck Makes Surprise Appearance At Amazon Event
Rivian R1T Electric Truck Makes Surprise Appearance At Amazon Event

Guessing that Bezos ego would not enough Space in the room with Elon...
*
A Space Race pun.

"Mine is Bigger"

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

It did smell fishy as I said

Not sure what is happening. The post was deleted pretty quickly yesterday.

I think there might be some more negotiation going on, hopefully there will be a new post clearing things out.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Montana Skeptic on latest teslaQ podcast said he lost a ton shorting TSLA

Cry me a river

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Use it to buy more Tesla stocks?

That’s the plan, but my 100 MXWL shares got converted to 1TSLA plus $185 from fractional shares. If it showed up yesterday, I would have bought 11 shares instead of 10.

 

[InDaClub]

This article is hilarious.

GM, FCA strike a deal with Tesla that consumers subsidize

Here’s a sample:

General Motors is hedging its bets to meet national emissions standards by turning to Tesla Inc. as insurance of sorts.

People who buy gasoline-powered cars ultimately foot the bill.

But this revelation should open consumers' eyes that every gasoline-powered car they buy subsidizes Tesla's existence, say industry observers.

Appleton said if people understood how the industry works, they'd be "embarrassed to drive a Tesla because their neighbor would say, 'When are you going to thank me for subsidizing that high-tech piece of status symbol you drive?'”

"And that’s just the beginning," said Appleton. "A $100,000 Tesla avoids $6,625 in state sales tax and last year that same car came with a $7,500 federal tax credit. In other words, Tesla buyers helped themselves to a nearly $16,000 subsidy, resulting in higher taxes and higher car prices for everyone else. Oh, and let’s not forget, Tesla owners pay no gas tax to support the roads they travel."

 

[ZachF]

rojo

 

[Tslynk67]

Looks like macros as a whole took a bit of a dive and in particular auto stocks.

A bit frustrating given the good opening.

 

[ZachF]

...verde

rojo

 

[Fact Checking]

Looks like macros as a whole took a bit of a dive and in particular auto stocks.

A bit frustrating given the good opening.

Yep, "peak auto" was recently called by Wall Street, with an 'official' contraction of auto sales expected in 2019. It's not crazy anymore to talk about the collapse of significant parts of the ICE industry.

Note that for example in the U.S. 'peak gascar' was probably in 2016 already if we subtract EV sales and correct for population growth.

That Tesla isn't a gascar company, that it shouldn't be in the automotive sector, and that TSLA's price should be in inverse correlation with auto stocks hasn't been understood by much of Wall Street yet though, but eventually it might happen, any year now!

 

[trentbridge]

This article is hilarious.

GM, FCA strike a deal with Tesla that consumers subsidize

Here’s a sample:

General Motors is hedging its bets to meet national emissions standards by turning to Tesla Inc. as insurance of sorts.

People who buy gasoline-powered cars ultimately foot the bill.

But this revelation should open consumers' eyes that every gasoline-powered car they buy subsidizes Tesla's existence, say industry observers.

Appleton said if people understood how the industry works, they'd be "embarrassed to drive a Tesla because their neighbor would say, 'When are you going to thank me for subsidizing that high-tech piece of status symbol you drive?'”

"And that’s just the beginning," said Appleton. "A $100,000 Tesla avoids $6,625 in state sales tax and last year that same car came with a $7,500 federal tax credit. In other words, Tesla buyers helped themselves to a nearly $16,000 subsidy, resulting in higher taxes and higher car prices for everyone else. Oh, and let’s not forget, Tesla owners pay no gas tax to support the roads they travel."

 

[trentbridge]

But this revelation should open consumers' eyes that every gasoline-powered car they buy subsidizes Tesla's existence, say industry observers.

Let's put this the correct way - GM would rather make gigantic profits on their gasoline vehicles like SUVs and pay Tesla for making electric vehicles than make as many electric vehicles that aren't profitable themselves...because it is good business. They sell a GMC Suburban - and make $10,000 and gladly pay Tesla $2,000 for not selling another Bolt. The GHG requirements are not a Tesla invention - they have been the law for many years and the traditional manufacturers are happy for Tesla to do the heavy lifting on reducing greenhouse gases and pay them for their own laziness.

 

[Nocturnal]

This article is hilarious.

GM, FCA strike a deal with Tesla that consumers subsidize

Here’s a sample:

General Motors is hedging its bets to meet national emissions standards by turning to Tesla Inc. as insurance of sorts.

People who buy gasoline-powered cars ultimately foot the bill.

But this revelation should open consumers' eyes that every gasoline-powered car they buy subsidizes Tesla's existence, say industry observers.

Appleton said if people understood how the industry works, they'd be "embarrassed to drive a Tesla because their neighbor would say, 'When are you going to thank me for subsidizing that high-tech piece of status symbol you drive?'”

"And that’s just the beginning," said Appleton. "A $100,000 Tesla avoids $6,625 in state sales tax and last year that same car came with a $7,500 federal tax credit. In other words, Tesla buyers helped themselves to a nearly $16,000 subsidy, resulting in higher taxes and higher car prices for everyone else. Oh, and let’s not forget, Tesla owners pay no gas tax to support the roads they travel."

What a D-bag. "I love pollution!" Of course ignoring the massive GM bailouts, fossil fuel subsides/wars, and the fact that the Big 3 owe their existence to governmental spending in the first place.

"Grandpa, why are there no more fish in the ocean or polar bears? "
"Well honey, I really wanted to stick it to the libs and make a few bucks shorting Electric car companies. "

 

[MarcusMaximus]

This article is hilarious.

GM, FCA strike a deal with Tesla that consumers subsidize

Here’s a sample:

General Motors is hedging its bets to meet national emissions standards by turning to Tesla Inc. as insurance of sorts.

People who buy gasoline-powered cars ultimately foot the bill.

But this revelation should open consumers' eyes that every gasoline-powered car they buy subsidizes Tesla's existence, say industry observers.

Appleton said if people understood how the industry works, they'd be "embarrassed to drive a Tesla because their neighbor would say, 'When are you going to thank me for subsidizing that high-tech piece of status symbol you drive?'”

"And that’s just the beginning," said Appleton. "A $100,000 Tesla avoids $6,625 in state sales tax and last year that same car came with a $7,500 federal tax credit. In other words, Tesla buyers helped themselves to a nearly $16,000 subsidy, resulting in higher taxes and higher car prices for everyone else. Oh, and let’s not forget, Tesla owners pay no gas tax to support the roads they travel."

Love it! In the article, Appleton is also quoted as saying Tesla sells every car at a loss. Grounds for a libel suit, I’d think, if Tesla cared to pursue one.

 

[Fact Checking]

But this revelation should open consumers' eyes that every gasoline-powered car they buy subsidizes Tesla's existence, say industry observers.

Actually, the claim that Tesla is subsidized is a perfect example of a Big Lie told with a straight face, because in reality it's the other way around, every gascar sale is subsidized by future generations by more than $50k of money, pain, hurt, suffering and death of vulnerable people, according to these estimates:

Fair enough, let me back up this claim I made:

"Secondly, an ICE car does around $50k damage to health and environment during its lifetime, so there's nothing 'punitive' about taxing them much higher. In fact the equal treatment of ICE cars in many other countries is a hidden subsidy."​

I'm basing this figure on the following study from 2015:

"The social cost of atmospheric release"
​

If we only try to estimate the economic effect of 3.2 million premature deaths per year which are directly related to vehicle tailpipe emissions, the study comes up with a per gallon of gasoline damage figure:

"Illustrative calculations indicate environmental damages are $330-970 billion yr−1 for current US electricity generation (~14–34¢ per kWh for coal, ~4–18¢ for gas) and $3.80 (−1.80/+2.10) per gallon of gasoline ($4.80 (−3.10/+3.50) per gallon for diesel)."

"These results suggest that total atmosphere-related environmental damages plus generation costs are much greater for coal-fired power than other types of electricity generation, and that damages associated with gasoline vehicles substantially exceed those for electric vehicles."​

From $3.80-$4.80 per gallon damages figure we can estimate average per ICE vehicle lifetime damages:

• Average mileage per year is around ~13,400 miles in the U.S.:
  • Average Annual Miles per Driver by Age Group
• Average fuel consumption per mile driven was around 25 miles per gallon in 2018:
  • U.S. vehicle fuel economy rises to record 24.7 mpg: EPA | Reuters
• Average vehicle lifespan is around 15 years in the U.S.:
  • Average Lifespan for U.S. Vehicles – Berla.co
• The rest can be derived from these figures:
  • Average life time mileage of a car is 15*13,400 = 201,000 miles
  • Average fuel consumption is 201,000/25 = 8,040 gallons of fuel
  • Average life time direct health cost of:
    • of gasoline cars: 8,040*3.80 = ~$30,500
    • of diesel cars: 8,040*4.80 = ~$38,500

But note that the figures in this 2015 study are conservative, in particular the $3.80-$4.80 per gallon of fuel health damage figure is based on a global average of health costs of:

"Climate-health calculations therefore use a Value of a Statistical Life (VSL) of $1.7 million (for 2010), which is the nominal US-based VSL of $7.5 million adjusted to account for carbonaceous aerosol exposure- and population-weighted country-specific income differences from prior analyses (UNEP 2011)."​

That's polite formulation for: "third world people are 4.4x cheaper for the ICE industry to kill."

If we correct for that factor and price the 'cost of life' in the U.S., we get 7.5/1.7*3.80 = $16.7 per gallon health damage caused by gasoline vehicles, and $21.1 for diesel vehicles, which correct the life time damage figures upwards significantly:

• average estimated life time health damage caused by gasoline cars with U.S. pricing = ~$134,000
• average life time health damage caused by diesel cars with U.S. pricing = ~$170,000

But it gets even worse for the ICE industry, the "premature deaths" related to air pollution do not include other ICE emissions related damage, such as:

• The already ongoing damage and harm from global warming, such as the 200 billion dollars Hurricane Harvey, which hurricane and rainfall was very probably amplified by global warming into a catastrophic event:
  • Global Warming Tied to Hurricane Harvey [Scientific American]
  • The direct Hurricane Harvey damages alone would wipe out all ICE industry profits for the last 2 years. ('Triple damages' and RICO punitive damages due to being part of a criminal conspiracy such as the Dieselgate criminal conspiracy would probably wipe out the ICE profits for the last 10 years, for Hurricane Harvey alone.)
• Nor does it include the economic damage caused by rising sea levels that are going to destroy, for example, a significant percentage of current Florida coastal real estate value over the next 30-50 years.
• There's ongoing damage to real estate exposed to vehicle tailpipe emissions in urban environments, with very high depreciation and maintenance costs:
  • "Studies on the effects of air pollution on limestone degradation in Great Britain"
• The 2015 study cites a global "3.2 million premature deaths per year" from pollution alone, which @ReflexFunds recently argued convincingly (with citations) is probably significantly higher in reality, and also in large part caused by ICE vehicles.

None of these costs are included in the estimates above.

That's wrong (see the citations above), and my cautious $50k figure is probably on the lower end of the real costs.

TL;DR: the real per ICE vehicle life time health and environmental damage cost could be several times $50k if we include all these external costs. Most ICE cars do health and environmental damage that are literally several times the value of the car, and even the high ICE taxes in Norway probably don't cover those damages.

 

[Maitri982]

I have translation of that item on Beijing...but these numbers seem all wrong to me. this would be like $1500 per month in USD with huge down payment of 15K..

 

[Dwdnjck]

This article is hilarious.

GM, FCA strike a deal with Tesla that consumers subsidize

Here’s a sample:

General Motors is hedging its bets to meet national emissions standards by turning to Tesla Inc. as insurance of sorts.

People who buy gasoline-powered cars ultimately foot the bill.

But this revelation should open consumers' eyes that every gasoline-powered car they buy subsidizes Tesla's existence, say industry observers.

Appleton said if people understood how the industry works, they'd be "embarrassed to drive a Tesla because their neighbor would say, 'When are you going to thank me for subsidizing that high-tech piece of status symbol you drive?'”

"And that’s just the beginning," said Appleton. "A $100,000 Tesla avoids $6,625 in state sales tax and last year that same car came with a $7,500 federal tax credit. In other words, Tesla buyers helped themselves to a nearly $16,000 subsidy, resulting in higher taxes and higher car prices for everyone else. Oh, and let’s not forget, Tesla owners pay no gas tax to support the roads they travel."

As if there are no oil subsidies.