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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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If the stock does keep rising it will surely be in stutter steps right? I assume many people are still a little fearful and would use small jumps as a good time to reduce exposure.

I assume that is just the environmental impacts. How much money have we spent in defense spending and wars over the years to keep oil stable? Iraq 2 alone is 3 or 4 trillion. Arguably every single war in the middle east had it's roots in oil concerns.
World War II was fought over oil. Specifically, Imperial Japan's obsession with getting oil. And Nazi Germany overextended itself by invading Russia because it was looking for oil. Since then, a very large number of oil wars have been fought.

I can make hyperbolic claims too. 9/11 was caused by our dependence on oil. We would not have bothered to interfere in regional polticis by supporting Iraq, and then needed to defend our oil ally the Saudis from Iraq which precipitated the desire in Bin Laden's head to attack the US for daring to place infidels on holy land etc.

I think that's pretty definitely proven, actually. US support for Saudi Arabia is batshit insane geopolitically, and appears to be *solely* about maintaining oil supplies. Eliminate oil demand, the Saudi kleptocracy will collapse pretty much overnight. US support for the Saudi kleptocracy is the big cause of resentment in the Middle East and that drives people to join freedom fighting / terrorist groups.

Hey, this is kinda fun.

It can definitely be the same thing. Group think/herd mentality, greed, basing future performance on past performance...
 
If one considers the last couple of months a FUD peak, then the negative correlation to the May Tesla sales numbers indicate:

1) Tesla buyers to not read/listen to the FUD sources
2) Tesla buyers do not believe the FUD sources
3) Tesla sales would be much higher without the FUD

or some combination. If 1) and/or 2), the FUD is ineffective. If 3), it’s effective, but not as effective as they wish.

Edit: and I guess 3) is unknowable since we are production capped
 
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Schwab raised margin requirements to 75 percent for my Tesla position today.

That's a load of crap.
Yeah, they did that to me last week. Luckily I suspected something was coming and deposited my safe deposit BRK shares into my account preemptively, so I'm fine. (I use margin, *from stocks uncorrelated to TSLA*, to sell puts. If I get assigned I will sell those stocks to clear the margin loan.)
 
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What is the standard usually? 75% is really freaken high. I thought 25% is the usual? I don't know, never looked into margins.
30% is normal. Tesla usually runs at 40%. Volatile stocks generally run higher. I've seen 70% on another volatile stock recently, though it's back down to 60% now.

Brokers have discretion to bring it up to 100%, however.
 
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Reactions: Icer
I don't understand why people like margin so much. Margin is drug. There are two things hurt retail investors the most: Wall Street manipulation and margin. Unfortunately SEC doesn't care.

William O'Neil (a very smart guy) talked about when to use margin, when to avoid it. I suggest everyone read it. Don't argue with O'Neil, just follow his advice.
I'm cheap, I don't want to buy his book. When did he think you *should* use it?
 
Gotta love this line: “
The Chevrolet Bolt is "the real Model 3," for a lot less money, Appleton said. "The average price of Model 3 last year was $57,000, you can buy a Bolt for $37,000, and the Bolt is every bit desirable a vehicle as the Tesla."
InsideEV May US sales:
Tesla Model 3: 13,950
Chevy Bolt: 1,396

Yep.
 
Okay, had my dad do some research on this Beijing deal.

1. As of 2019, all EVs in Beijing will be part of the lottery system in getting a plate, while in 2018 any EVs will receive a plate. The lottery system is it's own entity and does not compete within the ICE lottery system, which means the odds of getting a plate is greater.
OK, makes sense

2. EV plates only last for the duration of the car's life cycle..which is determined by the government. I can't find any data for Beijing but in Shanghai, the life of an EV is 8 years vs 10 years for ICE. This means after 8 years of owning the EV, it will need to be crushed (maybe reconditioned?). ICE gets the benefit of transferring their plate to a new car while EV owners will need to get a new plate.

Whaaaaat. This is crazy. Think maybe the 8-year-old EVs will be sold out of Shanghai and registered in rural areas which have no plate restrictions? I can guarantee nobody is going to be crushing 8-year-old Teslas.

3. EV owners can drive on Beijing road ANYTIME of the week vs ICE owners who can only drive every other day
That's attractive.

4. Any EVs produced by an off brand, cheap brand, or brands that lack good quality control company will not qualify for plates ever.

5. Once the owner has an EV plate, they will no longer qualify for any ICE plates and will be barred from the ICE plate lottery system.
Forever, or just until their car is declared to be too old and the plate is revoked? (What the hell is up with that anyway?)

So the Tesla deal in Beijing is this.

3 years leased 0% interest free for LRs
A plate is included for the duration of the lease at no charge (according to Tesla is worth 20k yuan/year).

My dad's hunch is that Tesla made a local deal with the DMV and purchased a bunch of corporate plates for this advertisement. The plate and the car are still considered Tesla's since it's a lease.
Makes sense.

He also commented that barely anyone lease in China, but the ease of getting the ability to drive anytime of the week and not having to be in a lottery system for an EV plate is probably worth it. Also the life of the EV and its plate as mandated by the government is 8 years..so another thing to think about since owning an EV long term is probably not as economical as first thought.

Plates are extremely expensive to purchase 2nd hand in Beijing and not ideal since the seller of the plate is fully responsible for any car accidents the driver ends up committing in the court of law.

Thanks for the info.
 
OT: neroden, what do you think of Gen IV nukes?

I am long term anti nuke. Never liked it,

But I am persuaded by
"cant meltdown"
and
"uses radioactive waste for fuel"

At that point I am out of objections,
other than a learned distrust of
people around too much money.

The tech is over my head.
Seems like Win Win
What is the catch?
Thx.
 
You must be kidding. Niedermeyer is one of the worst. Hull and Kolodny are biased. Roy is probably the only one I would call honest.
LL is not a "good kid". She's a troll who happens to be a "writer".

Matthew DeBord is honest, along with Roy.

Niedermeyer is extremely dishonest. Lopez is terrible. All of them pale in comparison to confessed securities fraudster Anton Wahlmann and "I censor any comments pointing out that I lied" Larry Fossi.
 
30% is normal. Tesla usually runs at 40%. Volatile stocks generally run higher. I've seen 70% on another volatile stock recently, though it's back down to 60% now.

Brokers have discretion to bring it up to 100%, however.
It's always been (last 3-4 years) 50% for TSLA with TD Direct (Canada). Never moved up or down for us retail guys...

Only stock and cash provide loan value, even DIM leaps (strike $80) aren't used to calculate loan value.

To secure short put, one needs cash equal to put price +50%of SP. So margin requirements grows at 50% of stock losing value. End result: 100 actions of TSLA allow me to sell one put short with strike at current SP. Of course, this is unsafe; I actually secure puts with $CAD cash sitting in parallel account, lets me avoid conversion fees.
 
Here's a paragraph from my daily charts post I just had to share with a larger audience:

Also hurting TSLA today was a Bernstein note (CNBC version here) that basically said that nobody would want to pick up Tesla and that if Tesla went out of business life would get better for the European auto makers. This is the same kind of lame fear tactics and nonsense that Adam Jonas has been selling lately, but it's good for knocking a couple points off the stock price and so they do it. Here's a free piece of advice for the Bernstein analyst. Maybe, just maybe, one of those car companies that is going to be paying Tesla billions of dollars for EV credits might find some use for a positive cash-flow EV automaker with huge demand.

Nah, let's not tell him and make him figure it out on his own.


Have you taken into consideration that perhaps when the European automakers you reference start selling their EV vehicles worldwide in 12 to 18 months and start generating their own EV credits, that they won't need to buy any from Tesla, and that revenue source will dry up?

A prudent investor considers all possible outcomes.
 
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Have you taken into consideration that perhaps when the European automakers you reference start selling their EV vehicles worldwide in 12 to 18 months and start generating their own EV credits, that they won't need to buy any from Tesla, and that revenue source will dry up?

A prudent investor considers all possible outcomes.
How are they gonna conjure up many of those 'Electric Vehicle vehicles' from nothing in 8-12 months?

You mean VW Vapor Vans?
 
OT

OT: neroden, what do you think of Gen IV nukes?
Ridiculous, dangerous fantasy material.

Most are fast neutron reactors.

The really dumb designs are the sodium-cooled and salt-cooled designs, which generate intractable strontium and cesium waste, which is *very* expensive to clean up. Look up Dounreay and the US prototypes for examples of trying to clean it up -- it costs over 10 times what it costs to clean up a normal nuclear reactor, and that's saying something! Using the waste from existing reactors is nice enough, but dealing with the strontium/cesium contaminated salts is FAR worse. Mind-bogglingly expensive.

The lead-cooled designs are terrible too, prone to even higher corrosion than the usual reactor designs. They leak.

The helium-cooled reactors (including the "very high temperature reactor") are unsustainable. We're already running out of helium, which is a nonrenewable resource generated very slowly from radioactive decay.
In addition, the graphite-moderated designs (including the "very high temperature reactor") create giant blogs of radioactive graphite, one of the more annoying types of radioactive waste to deal with.

The supercricial water cooled reactor is just like the existing reactors but more likely to blow up.
The gas-cooled fast reactor is basically like some of the older designs, but more likely to blow up.

In other words, it's all hype. They're all massively expensive generators of waste which is extremely expensive to clean up. All of them are full of toxic materials and full of rare materials which are permanently contaminated and wasted by the reactor processes.

Every one of them is basically an exceptionally dumb way to generate heat, followed by a highly inefficient thermal engine. Solar and wind, which generate electricity *directly* with no wasteful heat step, are far better in every possible way.
 
OK, makes sense



Whaaaaat. This is crazy. Think maybe the 8-year-old EVs will be sold out of Shanghai and registered in rural areas which have no plate restrictions? I can guarantee nobody is going to be crushing 8-year-old Teslas.


That's attractive.


Forever, or just until their car is declared to be too old and the plate is revoked? (What the hell is up with that anyway?)


Makes sense.



Thanks for the info.
Yes the 8 year thing seems crazy but I am wondering if it's because all of China's EV comes with *sugar* or no battery management system and the life of the cars end up being short lived. Let's see if Tesla can negotiate a longer term with data to prove their cars can last 350k miles. If so then it will be HUGE. All this talk about numbers sold/prices we completely forgot that Tesla is the only electric car company that does battery management right.
 
Have you taken into consideration that perhaps when the European automakers you reference start selling their EV vehicles worldwide in 12 to 18 months and start generating their own EV credits, that they won't need to buy any from Tesla, and that revenue source will dry up?

A prudent investor considers all possible outcomes.

Yes, PDQ, Investors close to me work spreadsheets containing the changing European emissions standards, year over year, estimate the average emissions for various European manufacturers, estimate volume of EVs to successfully sell by those manufacturers, and then derive likely shortfalls of EV credits per manufacturer per year. Hint: the numbers are enormous.

A question for you, now. Why do you address us longs as some type of country bumpkins who don't do research? Does such an image enhance your goals for the posts you place here?