Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[aubreymcfato]

Tesla isn't ready to outcompete Toyota Corolla or VW Polo.

It can't make a profitable EV for $20k.

Therefore, it has to justify the price of $40k. With entry luxury sedan form factor, 0-60mph/100kph etc.

Appealing to buyers better angles and tell them to pay more to save the planet from climate catastrophe hasn't worked and will not work.

I understand that, it's not Tesla's fault atm, they just can't produce my ideal car.
I'm just sharing the mindset of a segment of potential buyers.

 

[Foghat]

It might be worth a shot.

Currently every climate change thread on TMC is overrun with climate science denial trolls which IMO makes them fairly useless but maybe the investor thread moderators can keep it from getting out of hand.

I think the best way to accelerate the transition to sustainable energy consumption and production is to win people over on better technology that improve lives, that enhances life and creates better long term economic opportunity for the community.

Tesla embodies that idea. We want to live a better world, we want better lives. But without an alternative route to that life, we are beholden to one(fossil fuel) that does.

Climate change action will accelerate if given a better alternative like Tesla and other innovative companies that offers us as another choice.

The innovation cycle has only begun on solar, energy storage, BEV vehicles, transport and energy services. The innovation cycle on fossil fuel tech is ending.

Transforming to new innovation cycle is inevitable, but needs to be allowed to happen in a neutral environment.

If we really want to see climate change action accelerate globally, we must support the natural transformation of our economy to this winning economic innovation cycle.

When this happened, reinforcing behavior takes over and optimal climate action occurs as a result.

Again, Tesla and others like them are the model for real climate action that transcend whether one believes it, denies it, or otherwise.

Improve the wallet and wellbeing, improve the climate. This is the winning approach.

That’s the universal method that gets us to the finish line regardless of belief or non belief.

 

[EinSV]

Not at all, sometimes the trolls show up but they get spanked every time and scurry back to their holes.
Climate Change / Global Warming Discussion

There is some good information in that thread (I post there occasionally myself) but I quickly scrolled through about 10 pages beginning at page 256 and roughly half the posts are debating with climate science deniers whether human caused climate change exists, etc. To me that's about as productive as discussing how to improve race relations with Ku Klux Klan members.

IMO, it's hard to get a productive conversation going with constant interruptions/background noise.

I am in favor of a climate change investor thread being set up since the pressures to end ICE to minimize the damage from catastrophic climate change are important to EV adoption. But it would be much more productive if it were actively/aggressively moderated to keep it focused on investor-related issues so it wouldn't get sidetracked with never-ending (and pointless) debates with deniers about basic climate science.

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

I understand that, it's not Tesla's fault atm, they just can't produce my ideal car.
I'm just sharing the mindset of a segment of potential buyers.

I think the Model Y will fill in the biggest void Tesla has right now - a mass market midsize SUV. There is a TON of demand for that vehicle.

 

[AZRI11]

Elon needs to found Tezzla Motors that will be releasing an all-electric Crossover and Mad Max Truck in the next 2 years.

SpaceX motors. Falcon Heavy Pickup

 

[hobbes]

- European sales figures for March/April is at least 9k already. If June is going to be anything like March (except for Norway, probably less than 3k), my estimates are 23k for Q2.

We collect the official numbers here: Tesla Europe Registration Stats We got 8581 for April/May (typo in your post I guess). So a bit less than your number. How much will be delivered in June is anybody´s guess - could be like March, but wouldn´t be surprised if it was only 2/3 of March (not based on any extra info but on volatility of sales and too optimistic estimates we including myself have often made). So I wouldn´t get too excited just yet.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Allowing Detroit to sell more gas guzzlers in the USA without penalty doesn't force them to not make EVs.

GM is being forced to make EVs for the Chinese market.

Ford and FCA must either sell EVs in Europe or pool with some automaker that is below their grams of C02/km allotment.

It’s not just overseas markets. It is now law in BC (and Quebec I believe) that by 2040 all vehicles sold must be zero emission. Will this be a continuing trend in North America? Maybe. It certainly is in Europe already. Some cities are already no go zones for anything but zero emission vehicles.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Tesla are *aiming* to do 33k in June, but that doesnt mean that they can, or will. It seems aspirational to me. I'd be amazed (and overjoyed) if they shipped 100k in Q2. I'd be very happy with 90k, and not disappointed with 85k.
I think even 85k would see a big stock pop. 100+ would be a dramatic stock pop.

 

[larmor]

Allowing Detroit to sell more gas guzzlers in the USA without penalty doesn't force them to not make EVs.

GM is being forced to make EVs for the Chinese market.

Ford and FCA must either sell EVs in Europe or pool with some automaker that is below their grams of C02/km allotment.

Unless the US auto manufacturers understand the coming paradigm shift to EV, they will only make compliance cars. Takes alot of capital to retool factories to go from traditional ICE to EV cars. Allowing sales for lower MPG cars is a defacto subsidy, as i would suppose all our wars for the sake of oil.

 

[urarthur]

We collect the official numbers here: Tesla Europe Registration Stats We got 8581 for April/May (typo in your post I guess). So a bit less than your number. How much will be delivered in June is anybody´s guess - could be like March, but wouldn´t be surprised if it was only 2/3 of March (not based on any extra info but on volatility of sales and too optimistic estimates we including myself have often made). So I wouldn´t get too excited just yet.

Thanks, I compared my figures for March/April and my source for France was incorrect, but most other countries are in line. June figures are a rough guess, but very plausible for NA/EU.

33k in NA is only 1100/day. Elon's leaked email said they already averaging 900 model 3's a day and pushing for 1000/day. That leaves 200 for S/X which shouldn't be a problem.

 

[Alphacrux]

Tesla are *aiming* to do 33k in June, but that doesnt mean that they can, or will. It seems aspirational to me. I'd be amazed (and overjoyed) if they shipped 100k in Q2. I'd be very happy with 90k, and not disappointed with 85k.
I think even 85k would see a big stock pop. 100+ would be a dramatic stock pop.

Taking Raven delivery this coming Thursday. Sorry I can only afford to buy one this quarter It would help a lot if the stock rises.

 

[Doggydogworld]

I haven't seen many estimates for Q2 deliveries above 100k, but the way I see it we're going to hit ~ 104k.

- NA 33k for April/May and let's assume 33k June. That's 66k.

33k included 2512 delivered to that point in June. The 33-36k sales goals imply 63.5-66.5k for Q2.

- European sales figures for March/April is at least 9k already. If June is going to be anything like March (except for Norway, probably less than 3k), my estimates are 23k for Q2.

They sent 5 ships to Europe this quarter vs 8 last quarter. I expect 21-22k Q2 deliveries, thanks to cars that arrived in Q1 but didn't get delivered until Q2.

- China probably >15k.

China is a wild card. They shipped a lot less cars in Q2, early sales data implies another ~10k quarter.

- S/X = 25k / quarter
- Model 3 = 800/day on average x 90 days ~ 72k. there are more working days in Q2!
Estimated total production for Q2 = 97k

They guided to much lower than 25k S/X production. Musk said they needed 1000/day Model 3 production the last 5-6 weeks of Q2 to be able to beat Q4's 91k delivery record. That implies less than 800/day earlier in the quarter, but may have just been rah-rah. It doesn't really matter, they have enough inventory even if production falls a little short.

Vehicles in transit in Q1: 10.600
Production + transit Q1 = 25k + 72k + 11k = 108k
deduct vehicles in transit for Q2 of ~ 4k = 108k - 4k = 104k

In transit is pretty meaningless for these estimates. Total inventory is a much better metric. They had 20k Model 3s and ~13.5k S/X on 3/31. Start with these numbers, add production and subtract reasonable estimates for ending inventory.

 

[TradingInvest]

Tesla are *aiming* to do 33k in June, but that doesnt mean that they can, or will. It seems aspirational to me. I'd be amazed (and overjoyed) if they shipped 100k in Q2. I'd be very happy with 90k, and not disappointed with 85k.
I think even 85k would see a big stock pop. 100+ would be a dramatic stock pop.

Why even 85k would see a big stock pop? 85k likely will lead to significant Q2 loss, also means Q3 will be tough, and yearly 360~400k would be difficult to meet. I hope we can get to at least 95k and close to GAAP breakeven.

In Q2 some Canadians get very large tax incentives, Californians can get $3750+2500, that's one of the reasons why north America is so strong. Both incentives can't last forever. If you can't make a profit under this condition, what happens when those tax incentives go away? At least that's what shorts think.

Right now I'm not sure the strong NA demand is because of awareness or tax incentives. I think there is a good chance it's because more and more people get a chance to test drive the Model 3. They want the car regardless of the tax incentives. In this case we should see huge worldwide demand quarter after quarter. We will have a better understanding after a few more quarters. Once we get more demand than supply, Tesla might be able to raise price a little bit.

On June 5th, they said already delivered 33k in north America, plus 16k either in the process or VIN assigned. At this pace, if we get ongoing order of 600 a day, we should normally reach 61k for NA Q2. The quarter end push should get it over 65k.

 

[Fred42]

They guided for free cash flow and no profit ion the Q1 earnings call. If deliveries are above low end of guidance it makes a profit more likely. They’ve driven to pricing and costs so levers of costs and cash flow are pretty complex to predict.
Profits would be great, but long term they should be selling the growth story, like Amazon has done. I prefer a marginally profitable Tesla growing 60% plus the next 5 and 10 years, then a few quarters of profit followed by bigger automakers slowly grinding Tesla down. As soon as GF3 is building car 1, I want GF4 land being cleared in western Poland. I’d prefer free cash flow in China to fund rapid in country growth and see GF3 build out complete in 2021 making a million plus cars a year and preparation for another China GF on its heels. Scaling up past 2 million cars in the next 3-4 years gets them past the scale of all but VW group, FCA, Toyota and GM. VW has an EV plan, but no scale before 2021 is likely and Toyota suddenly found a magic lantern and have been granted solid state battery technology (1st wish) and the means of production (2nd wish)and the software expertise to make it all work(3rd wish). No one else outside of China has a viable path to scale EV production before 2023 at this point. No one will be able to build 5 million EVs by 2023 except Tesla.

Toyota pulls forward electrification plan, eyes solid-state battery next year
Also I read the Clean Technica article on this.
Toyota announced acceleration of its EV plans but I've read nothing anywhere about Toyota lining up a lithium ion battery source. Is their business plan really to hope for a miracle with solid state batteries?

 

[kbM3]

I haven't seen many estimates for Q2 deliveries above 100k, but the way I see it we're going to hit ~ 104k.

- NA 33k for April/May and let's assume 33k June. That's 66k.
- European sales figures for March/April is at least 9k already. If June is going to be anything like March (except for Norway, probably less than 3k), my estimates are 23k for Q2.
- China probably >15k.

NA 66 + Europe 23 + China 15 = 104k.

I think it's plausible given the production estimates:

- S/X = 25k / quarter
- Model 3 = 800/day on average x 90 days ~ 72k. there are more working days in Q2!
Estimated total production for Q2 = 97k

Vehicles in transit in Q1: 10.600

Production + transit Q1 = 25k + 72k + 11k = 108k
deduct vehicles in transit for Q2 of ~ 4k = 108k - 4k = 104k

So deliveries should be above and beyond Q4, if and it's a big if, is that June = March delivers for Europe/China and NA = 33k.

I can only see demand taking of from here, given that Tesla is yet to open sales in 2/3 of European countries, Latin America and rest of the world.

European Sales Q2'19 Estimate
View attachment 417376

Tesla guided to higher in-transit numbers this quarter (undoing the wave), not lower.

 

[wipster]

Speaking of Prius, etc. hyundai's new all electric car just had pricing released. $30,000.

2019 Ioniq Electric | Hyundai USA


.... with a range of 124 miles. And I assume in real life it's going to be under 100 miles. I can't imagine trying to travel in this thing.

For only 14% more money, you could get double the range with the SR.

Edit: Looks like Hyundai still gets the 7.5k tax credit, so they're working with an advantage on Tesla with pricing. I really don't like that companies like volvo have sub companies like Polestar. VW has Porsche, Lambo, Bentley, etc. And each of the sub companies gets their own tax credit to burn independently.

So Tesla could create a "Nickola" sub company for a rebadged 3 and Y and the $7,500 credit would kick back in? Surely they'd quickly change the requirements, even though Tesla is still the leading American BEV manufacturer by far.

Honestly, I think the tax credit is a terrible incentive anyway because you have to owe that amount of FIT in order to take full advantage. This has been the second year in a row I've owed and paid no FIT, so if I were going to buy a 3, the credit wouldn't even apply! With the SR+ models now coming out, it makes them far more available to folks that don't owe huge amounts of FIT, so I don't think the lower amount of credit come July will significantly affect sales or at least a portion of the credit won't be left on the table.

 

[AndyH]

Toyota pulls forward electrification plan, eyes solid-state battery next year
Also I read the Clean Technica article on this.
Toyota announced acceleration of its EV plans but I've read nothing anywhere about Toyota lining up a lithium ion battery source. Is their business plan really to hope for a miracle with solid state batteries?

Toyota will apparently also partner with Panasonic. Those two-timing bastards. Pfft.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Tesla guided to higher in-transit numbers this quarter (undoing the wave), not lower.

They didn’t guide higher, so far as I saw/heard, just that they wouldn’t intentionally make only foreign cars the first part of the quarter and only domestic the latter part, so they wouldn’t just be delivering all their cars at the very end of the quarter. That implies there will be in transit cars at the end, but not any certain amount of them.

 

[Mike Smith]

Some interesting claims in the description, suggesting current high demand for the imported Model 3:

"On the last day of May, Tesla China official website released the price of China-made Molde3, which is much higher than the price expected by Chinese people. Many consumers who are ready to order Tesla's native Modle 3 are consumers. Instead, they ordered the imported version, because they only differed by 50,000 yuan, and the imported version of the order, will also give the automatic driving function, and in the hearts of Chinese consumers, the imported version may be better than the just produced Modle 3 Chinese native products."

I hadn't considered that Chinese consumers would see the American made version as higher quality.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

So Tesla could create a "Nickola" sub company for a rebadged 3 and Y and the $7,500 credit would kick back in? Surely they'd quickly change the requirements, even though Tesla is still the leading American BEV manufacturer by far.

Honestly, I think the tax credit is a terrible incentive anyway because you have to owe that amount of FIT in order to take full advantage. This has been the second year in a row I've owed and paid no FIT, so if I were going to buy a 3, the credit wouldn't even apply! With the SR+ models now coming out, it makes them far more available to folks that don't owe huge amounts of FIT, so I don't think the lower amount of credit come July will significantly affect sales or at least a portion of the credit won't be left on the table.

I just can't wrap my head around the fact that the US government is subsidizing German and Korean made EVs (qualify for $7500 rebate) at the expense of American made EVs (qualify for $3750 rebate and soon only $1875 or $0). China only has rebates for EVs made at home, the US will soon only have rebates for EVs made abroad. You can't make that up, it's schizofrenic. I thought this government was all about 'Murica First? Try Europe and Korea first. I guess tariff man didn't get the memo yet (or didn't feel like reading it).