Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[LN1_Casey]

What if I only have a manly petticoat?

Then pull up your kilt and buy more, I suppose?

 

[StealthP3D]

There's only a few things that can happen to really push the SP up at this point. 90,000 deliveries won't move it much.

I don't think the share price is that predictable. The share price of a company like Tesla is based on investor sentiment and that's a fickle thing of which delivery numbers are only a small portion of the equation. And investor sentiment can turn on a dime.

 

[3PHASE]

Elon tweeting again... there goes the stock.

 

[Mike Smith]

Tamberrino is calling for 12.8% revenue growth next year. He also never mentions GF3 in Shanghai. Unbelievable as it sounds I think he actually might not be aware of it.

 

[Sancho]

Could it be any more obvious from trading today and the Tamberrino manipulation that the call writers’ key objective is to keep the SP under 220 for the option expiry tomorrow?

Looks likely they will achieve that objective (but stranger things have happened, so not trading advice).

The next two weeks are far more interesting with the Q2 production and deliveries numbers looming. But we longs need to be patient as we wait for the big money on the sidelines to become less fearful of Tesla’s short term outlook. Hard to predict when that happens.

 

[M3Rider]

So, with MP $222.5 tomorrow, should we expect $3 up tomorrow?

 

[Unpilot]

So, with MP $222.5 tomorrow, should we expect $3 up tomorrow?

Not a bad bet.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Elon tweeting again... there goes the stock.

-- SHORTSVILLE TIMES -- BREAKING NEWS --

SEC to investigate Elon Musk for tweeting insider stonk information.

 

[Singuy]

Because most people think it is a one-time deal where Tesla is again pulling demand forward. Hard to argue that until Tesla is able to have a strong Q3.

There's only a few things that can happen to really push the SP up at this point. 90,000 deliveries won't move it much. That is within the demand pull-forward range. It would take > 100,000 to have an impact. And to make a truly significant impact, it would need to be more than 105,000. Other than that, it's going to take a strong 3rd quarter (to alleviate the pull-forward fears), or a surprise announcement that the Model Y is entering production sooner than later. Remember that Tesla's comment on the Y has been something along the lines that full production will happen late 2020. But, the 3 took a year to 1.5 years to get up to full production. I don't think there's any way the Y will take that long, but 6 to 12 months could be a reasonable guess. That would mean production could start in Oct '19 to January '20. That would be awesome.

I totally do not agree that 90k deliveries won't move the stock.

A strong cash balance will save this stock after Q2. That is all that matters. If Tesla can sustain itself for a very lengthy period of time, then it's game over for the shorts. This company needs to die and die fast, hence the 10 months before bankruptcy was a wet dream for shorts. The longer this company has, the more time it gives them to launch new products and innovate since their pace of innovation is light years ahead of legacy makers. Time is what gets more Tesla super chargers installed. Time is what give Tesla more Tesla warriors on the road convincing others to buy their cars. Time is what gives them the ability to build more and more gigafactories, increase battery production, get their solar roof marketable, and FSD accomplished.

What a strong cash balance will do is buy Tesla time, which is the short seller's kryptonite. As long as Tesla can stay cash flow positive despite not being Gaap+, it will stabilize the stock and kill the shorts.

The -700k and huge debt repayment plus a flurry of shitstorm the shorts have set up to depress the sp to prevent adequate capital raises is to prevent Tesla from gaining such time.
This is how silicon valley works. Sometimes these tech companies fake it till they make it...faking it to gain the time for them to make it. Other companies had their time run out (like Thernos). Tesla has proven tech that's already disruptive..but the crazy fantasy tech are yet to come (FSD, Solar Roof, low cost batteries).

 

[bdy0627]

So, with MP $222.5 tomorrow, should we expect $3 up tomorrow?

It's a Quad witching date, so should have an effect if the share price isn't too far away.

 

[Artful Dodger]

EV Bidnes in 3 EZ steps:

1. Buy an Gigafactory
2. Use it build another Gigafactory
3. Return the Gigafactory?

Knee How.

 

[Zaxxon]

A-friggin' men. The Drive piece by Alex Roy - The Penalty of Leadership: From Cadillac to Tesla.

 

[DragonWatch]

Am I wrong or has there been way less posts/noise about discounts being given out this quarter? no major end of quarter incentive as far as I can tell.

That has to be bullish

I have to agree with you. They would not continue my unlimited supercharging. No floor mats. We had to use our own referral code to hopefully get some hours of supercharging. No thousand bucks off like two years ago.
Probably no free coffee either for the long drive back home.
Oh well, we get new tires and use of the bathroom while we are there At least I get a new Model X fresh off the assembly line tomorrow. I was disappointed that Elon would not allow me to test drive the new one around the Fremont track. Grand-kids call me Rocket Man
Hopefully our 2Q19 X will mean something when it comes to the numbers game

 

[jerry33]

A-friggin' men. The Drive piece by Alex Roy - The Penalty of Leadership: From Cadillac to Tesla.

Since when (in my lifetime) has Cadillac ever been a leader. I thought they were only driven by pimps and undertakers.

 

[CalX]

So here is the highlight from GS research note.

GS sees 760k units by 2025. how stupid is that? Tesla could make >760k next year if China Giga is at full force.

View attachment 421311


Someone shared the the note on twitter.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D9f2vcFWsAA0_o3?format=jpg&name=large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D9f2vcFWsAEHUYY?format=jpg&name=large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D9f2vcGX4AA60tL?format=jpg&name=large

So he is forecasting a 0.50 EPS this quarter and over $4 EPS in12/2021? But it's a sell? What happened to the $1B loss per quarter and bankruptcy narrative?

 

[Singuy]

Since when (in my lifetime) has Cadillac ever been a leader. I thought they were only driven by pimps and undertakers.

Read the article, it didn't happen in your life time, unless you were born before 1915.

 

[Sancho]

I totally do not agree that 90k deliveries won't move the stock.

A strong cash balance will save this stock after Q2. That is all that matters. If Tesla can sustain itself for a very lengthy period of time, then it's game over for the shorts. This company needs to die and die fast, hence the 10 months before bankruptcy was a wet dream for shorts. The longer this company has, the more time it gives them to launch new products and innovate since their pace of innovation is light years ahead of legacy makers. Time is what gets more Tesla super chargers installed. Time is what give Tesla more Tesla warriors on the road convincing others to buy their cars. Time is what gives them the ability to build more and more gigafactories, increase battery production, get their solar roof marketable, and FSD accomplished.

What a strong cash balance will do is buy Tesla time, which is the short seller's kryptonite. As long as Tesla can stay cash flow positive despite not being Gaap+, it will stabilize the stock and kill the shorts.

The -700k and huge debt repayment plus a flurry of shitstorm the shorts have set up to depress the sp to prevent adequate capital raises is to prevent Tesla from gaining such time.
This is how silicon valley works. Sometimes these tech companies fake it till they make it...faking it to gain the time for them to make it. Other companies had their time run out (like Thernos). Tesla has proven tech that's already disruptive..but the crazy fantasy tech is yet to come (FSD, Solar Roof, low cost batteries).

It’s not “game over for the shorts” until the big money starts accumulating TSLA. Until then, there is great money to be made selling calls and manipulating the SP.

Big money needs reasonable assurances that Tesla is going to be sustainably cash flow positive. Maybe one quarter’s deliveries and cash flow will suffice, but odds are it will take multiple quarters.

 

[tander]

I totally do not agree that 90k deliveries won't move the stock....but the crazy fantasy tech is yet to come (FSD, Solar Roof, low cost batteries).

Seems like it could go either way depending on if they mention cashflow/profits. If they did 100k sales but at a big loss that probably wouldn't be good. But then again if they do 90k with cashflow+ or small profit that would be really good. You forgot to mention the submarine car, they have to make that for Mars anyway right?

 

[sixela]

This is so screwed up! The shorts can just dump a truckload of shares to drive the price down, then cover at a lower price and rake in a nice profit to finance their next attack.

On the other side, all we can do is buy and hold and cross our fingers in the hope the stock price recovers. We are at the mercy of the short sellers, where is the fairness in that?

It's a martingale. Sadly for them, it gives them a large chance of gaining a little and a small chance of losing a lot.

 

[larmor]

EV Bidnes in 3 EZ steps:

1. Buy an Gigafactory
2. Use it build another Gigafactory
3. Return the Gigafactory?

View attachment 421355

Knee How.

1. Buy money (loan)
2. Use money build a factory that makes batteries, cars, and hence prints money
3. Return original money