Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[neroden]

Any idea when we will have REAL delivery numbers for Q2 instead of all this speculation?

First week of July

 

[neroden]

OMG. The New York Times has a new article out today that is a tour-de-force of New York Times-style reporting. It’s about why EVs are still problematic, as evidenced by the difficulties one faces if one simply wants to drive from LA to Las Vegas.

L.A. to Vegas and Back by Electric Car: 8 Hours Driving; 5 More Plugged In

The New York Times is Dylan’s Mr. Jones, and this article shows exactly why The New York Times is so ill-suited, ill-equipped, out-of-touch, and hopelessly unable to help the public understand the EV transition. It’s like the paper is still trying to make heads or tails of General Magic’s Magic Cap and Apple’s Newton while the rest of the world is living with iPhones and Androids.

Interesting to analyze in order to look at the structure of a hit piece.

It is a pretty obvious hit piece. I mean, I just drove from Toledo to Ithaca. It took longer than it should have because I kept dilly-dallying shopping and having dinner; the chargers were charging *too fast*.

Of course, he tried to do this trip in a Bolt, because in a Tesla, it would have been a triviality. Does he mention Tesla in the article? Yes, but he somehow manages to come up with a negative spin every time he mentions Tesla, cherrypicking every piece of unusual, uncommon negativity he can.

I don't give the NYT money any more. Someone should write in pointing out how easy it is to drive from LA to Vegas and back by electric car.

 

[neroden]

Update on NYT article. I've been in touch with the reporter and he's agreed to chat with me on the phone. It's a constructive opportunity to discuss what I view are the shortcomings in the article and that it does not do a good job of informing the public of the current situation with EVs. We'll see how it goes.

Thank you. Why don't you point out my experience -- he can talk to me if he likes. I just drove from Toledo to Ithaca -- a longer trip than LA to Las Vegas -- and my main problem was that the chargers charged too quickly to finish shopping, eating lunch, or eating dinner, so I was spending time plugged in when I didn't need to be.

Somehow, he cherrypicked one of the few overcrowded Superchargers in California as the ONLY example he gave of the Supercharger network, which is absurd. He can talk to me about the real Tesla roadtrip experience.

 

[TradingInvest]

My mom just said “NY Times said electric cars aren’t good”

Then me having to explain that reporter ignored Teslas and Teslas are good and I never spend that much time at superchargers because there are so many of them now and then explaining how I never even public charge because you just charge at home and you have more than enough miles for daily use and you don’t have any oil changes or mufflers and you don’t have to deal with a dealer.
Now she wants a model 3.
NY Times needs to up their EV reporting game.

The progress of EV is a major threat to oil industry, pipeline industry, legacy car industry and car dealer industry. Yearly net profit: Toyota $20B; VW $10B; Exxon Mobile $18B; GM $9B; Mercedes $7B; Saudi Aramco; Koch Industries ...... there are at least 30 large companies on the list, another 200 smaller ones. Top 5 oil companies have about 2 trillion dollars annual revenue.

These companies know what's happening regarding EV transition, they have their own research arms, usually quite competent. This is an example how good their research is https://thinkprogress.org/exxon-predicted-high-carbon-emissions-954e514b0aa9/

If the tipping point happens and people switch to EV in large numbers, car companies can say goodby to the huge profit. Oil companies' value will be permanently depressed. If they could delay the EV transition by 5~10 years, it would mean HUGE profit for themselves. I think some of the companies are spending money to prevent/delay the EV transition.

For this reason, I don't expect NY Times to up their EV reporting game. I think they know exactly what game they are playing. It's not for the clicks. They are paid big bucks to play the game.

 

[Boomer19]

Those fond of watching paint dry are sure to savor a nearly 2-hour repetitive, ponderous infomercial promoting EVTV's re-purposed batteries from wrecked Teslas (why are so many Teslas involved in accidents totaled by insurers rather than repaired?).

Jack rails against big utilities using grid-tied residential solar as peakers while advocating using the grid connection as a battery. Just cut the cord! Then both problems go away.

There are no free lunches in the production nor consumption of energy, regardless of the technology deployed. As Jack preaches near the end, the "manipulation" of energy over the last century and a half has greatly improved the quality of life and resulted in a population explosion. It's now all about exploiting regulatory lag and the incompetence of big governments' central planning.

yeah just like trading

 

[neroden]

Something I've been thinking about:

There is science to show that the maximum number of contacts that a person can manage is about 150 people (Dunbar's number)

Newer science says that this is true of most people, but some people have *vastly extended* social networks -- they are "superinfluencers" or social butterflies to use an older term, who can know 1000 people. Once one of them is a Tesla owner, knowledge spreads very very fast.

(Dunbar's number is related to not only knowing the people, but *also* knowing their relationships with each other -- this is not necessary for a superinfluencer, who knows a lot of people but does not know how they relate to each other. His research, and the followups which guessed larger numbers, were based on primate societies -- entire groups. The applications are mainly to cohesive social groups. A social butterfly will have many social groups who they interact with *separately* and will be startled if someone from one group shows up in another.)

Therefor, I suggest that, once Tesla is 1/150th of the cars on the road, the average person will know at least one Tesla owner.

In the US, there are 250m cars, so 250/150 = 1.67m

Given that the best advertisement for Tesla is "butts in the seats", I theorize this level will be Tesla "critical mass" where demand really takes off.

It'll be a bit faster than that because of the fact that social networks are scale-free networks. It'll also be geographically lumpy for the same reason.

There were about 300k Teslas on American roads at the end of 2018.

So 150k in California; the tipping point has probably passed on California already.

 

[neroden]

Yeah I gotta try to track down DeLancie.

The bit about DeLancie seems like the worst sort of cherrypicking. The Superchargers were running under half an hour for half a charge on my way back from Toledo, for a total of about 1.5 hours of charging on 8 hours of driving... not counting all the dilly-dallying...

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Thank you. Why don't you point out my experience -- he can talk to me if he likes. I just drove from Toledo to Ithaca -- a longer trip than LA to Las Vegas -- and my main problem was that the chargers charged too quickly to finish shopping, eating lunch, or eating dinner, so I was spending time plugged in when I didn't need to be.

Somehow, he cherrypicked one of the few overcrowded Superchargers in California as the ONLY example he gave of the Supercharger network, which is absurd. He can talk to me about the real Tesla roadtrip experience.

Yup, just got back from Orlando (about 450 mile). Total breeze of a trip. Getting ready to head to Roanoke, Va. in a week or so. Not worried in the least. People just don't get it until they've lived it.

Dan

 

[neroden]

FWIW, the driving back from Toledo was appalling. We ended up looping miles out of our way due to unexpected road closures including freeway entrance closures. There were 30 miles of milled / not-repaved road where we really couldn't go faster than 45. The Supercharger breaks were really necessary after the miserable driving.

 

[EVNow]

Any idea when we will have REAL delivery numbers for Q2 instead of all this speculation?

July 2nd is when rest of the industry publishes monthly numbers.

Tesla seems to have released P&D on the same day as rest of the industry in the past 4 quarters - within first 3 days of the month. So, my guess is either 2nd or 3rd.

 

[Fact Checking]

Update on NYT article. I've been in touch with the reporter and he's agreed to chat with me on the phone. It's a constructive opportunity to discuss what I view are the shortcomings in the article and that it does not do a good job of informing the public of the current situation with EVs. We'll see how it goes.

Here's an article on CleanTechnica pointing out all the false statements and misinformation in the NYT article:

NYTimes Spreads Misinformation About EVs — Let's Clean Up The Mess | CleanTechnica​

 

[TradingInvest]

Newer science says that this is true of most people, but some people have *vastly extended* social networks -- they are "superinfluencers" or social butterflies to use an older term, who can know 1000 people. Once one of them is a Tesla owner, knowledge spreads very very fast.

(Dunbar's number is related to not only knowing the people, but *also* knowing their relationships with each other -- this is not necessary for a superinfluencer, who knows a lot of people but does not know how they relate to each other. His research, and the followups which guessed larger numbers, were based on primate societies -- entire groups. The applications are mainly to cohesive social groups. A social butterfly will have many social groups who they interact with *separately* and will be startled if someone from one group shows up in another.)


It'll be a bit faster than that because of the fact that social networks are scale-free networks. It'll also be geographically lumpy for the same reason.


So 150k in California; the tipping point has probably passed on California already.

We should closely watch the EV growth curve in CA. I think this is a reliable leading indicator. Other places are likely to have similar curve, but 2~3 years behind CA.

 

[TradingInvest]

They were certainly adding to the congestion at the San Diego Supercharger.

Tesloop has been generating valuable long term test data for Tesla. So I give them a pass for using the Superchargers extensively.

 

[Freder Reeve]

I like this guy's approach to trips: stopping at more superchargers for quick 10-15 minute burst charges within the peak charge-speeds up to 50% battery.

 

[RobStark]

I believe this to be true for all high end cars. Insurance companies don't repair if the repair cost is more than a certain percentage of the value. So when you have the 40% depreciation after delivery, plus whatever extra depreciation from how long it's been in service, and then the repair cost. It's much easier to totally a Tesla, Mercedes, or BMW than it is a Toyota.

The opposite is true. It is easier to total a Toyota than a Mercedes.

All cars are totaled if they exceed X% of value. Different insurance companies have different values. Labor rates at body shops are the same for Toyota or Mercedes.

The problem with Tesla is the fear of the unknown by insurance adjusters.

IF an insurance adjuster approves a repair of $10k on a car valued at $25k and it later turns out than unseen damage is an additional $15k plus then that adjuster gets dinged on his employee evaluation. Most adjusters will feel comfortable evaluating damage to an ice powertrain by inspecting it. They fear unseen damage to battery pack and power electronics, so they try to justify totaling the car. For example by writing in their report that there was extensive though subtle frame damage.

 

[1101011]

I like this guy's approach to trips: stopping at more superchargers for quick 10-15 minute burst charges within the peak charge-speeds up to 50% battery.

Tested both methods in a round trip- Cleveland - Boston - Cleveland

Running east, I stopped only when necessary skipping some chargers, and it took 13 hours.
Running west, I stopped at each charger taking shorter sips and it took 12 hours.

 

[SPadival]

Those fond of watching paint dry are sure to savor a nearly 2-hour repetitive, ponderous infomercial promoting EVTV's re-purposed batteries from wrecked Teslas (why are so many Teslas involved in accidents totaled by insurers rather than repaired?).

Jack rails against big utilities using grid-tied residential solar as peakers while advocating using the grid connection as a battery. Just cut the cord! Then both problems go away.

There are no free lunches in the production nor consumption of energy, regardless of the technology deployed. As Jack preaches near the end, the "manipulation" of energy over the last century and a half has greatly improved the quality of life and resulted in a population explosion. It's now all about exploiting regulatory lag and the incompetence of big governments' central planning.

Thanks for the tldr. . I watched only a few minutes (@1.5 speed) to get the gist.

However, if you got triggered enough to watch the whole thing, he must have got something right.

 

[bzbee]

Jack joins the fight against FUD (at 1.5 speed)

... if anyone needs a sip of wine between 'bites' of Jack; I find the following has aged well (48min at 1.0 speed ).

 

[EVNow]

We should closely watch the EV growth curve in CA. I think this is a reliable leading indicator. Other places are likely to have similar curve, but 2~3 years behind CA.

If other states start single occupant HOV programs for EVs and cash incentives, they will have similar curve.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

Faster charging can't hurt, well at least if you are not trying to get a relaxing meal in 5 minutes away from the SC. But I'm not sure it matters much from where we are today. Maybe a small net benefit.

I don't find the speed of charging a problem and I'm afraid we are falling into the hands of the FUDsters who try to make the case that EV's are not a practical solution due to the rate of charge. Perhaps this is true if you are a traveling salesman who crisscrosses the country racking up 800 mile days but I'm not even sure that is a thing anymore.​

It isn’t even true for the traveling salesman racking up hundreds of miles a day. In that case, the cost savings on fuel & maintenance dwarf the time cost of charging. This is especially so because charging time can be spent productively on administrative or scheduling aspects of the job.