Every week, I read nothing but good news about the EV market and Tesla. Cities banning ICE vehicles, countries setting dates in the near future to ban ICE vehicles completely, crazy EV growth in the worlds largest car market (China), EV production issues and battery shortages for Tesla's competitors, tariff exemptions for Tesla with huge battery growth planned, best mid-luxury car, safest vehicles, AP3, growing demand, etc., etc. And yet, another down day and the SP is nowhere near 360 or even 300. What in the hell is wrong with the stock market?
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
For the general press I honestly think it has more to do with the fact that many reporters don't earn enough money to afford Tesla's offerings and or they perceive them to be for the rich.
When it comes to automotive reporters my theory is more that they are and have been for a long time in bed with the traditional automakers. They provide press cars, paid for trips to exotic locations etc etc... Why bite the hand that feeds them?
It is corrupt and manipulated.
Esme Es Mejor
Member
With the quarter coming to a close, I wanted to outline what we know, or think we know, about deliveries.
North America. Our information comes primarily from InsideEVs’ monthly estimates and Electrek’s unnamed sources. Take with however many grains of salt you deem appropriate.
InsideEVs estimates that Tesla delivered more vehicles in the first 2 months of Q2 than they did in all of Q1. Electrek’s unnamed sources say Tesla has delivered more than 49k vehicles with 6 days left, and is delivering more than 1k per day recently. That suggests a minimum of 55k North American deliveries. 1.5k deliveries per day would bump that to 58k deliveries. 2k deliveries per day (which seems unrealistic to me, but maybe) would mean 61k North American deliveries. I’ll assume 55-58k.
North America. Our information comes primarily from InsideEVs’ monthly estimates and Electrek’s unnamed sources. Take with however many grains of salt you deem appropriate.
InsideEVs estimates that Tesla delivered more vehicles in the first 2 months of Q2 than they did in all of Q1. Electrek’s unnamed sources say Tesla has delivered more than 49k vehicles with 6 days left, and is delivering more than 1k per day recently. That suggests a minimum of 55k North American deliveries. 1.5k deliveries per day would bump that to 58k deliveries. 2k deliveries per day (which seems unrealistic to me, but maybe) would mean 61k North American deliveries. I’ll assume 55-58k.
Huge loss from Q1 even though the narrative was sold to Tesla investors in 2016 that once the MOdel 3 is out, Tesla revenue will go through the roof. Elon continued to reiterated this throughout 2018, hence the "we will be profitable after q3". Q3 and Q4 were profitable and investors were reassured. Then a huge loss happened in Q1. Then Tesla raised capital, and then said the capital raised will be gone in 10 months if they don't cut spending(not exactly what he said but doesn't exactly give investor the confidence on that promise from 2016).
Tesla is a speculation stock. When the dream failed in a spectacular fashion like Q1, this stock will fall like a rock until confidence is regained. The market is not being irrational here. The evaluation given to Tesla right before the Model 3 have proved itself was pretty high.
All I have been hearing from the TSLAQ crowd is “NO DEMAND!!!!!!!!!!”. Which of course is ridiculous.
Thats not what was commonly reported, but is fairly accurately what he said. The thing was: that was obvious information any random person could have gathered with the Q1 ER and a calculator. What drove the SP down was more likely the false reporting done pretty much everywhere stating that he said they would entirely run out of money in 10 months. Figuring out that that wasn’t what he said was rather difficult.
Esme Es Mejor
Member
Europe. Europe has the most reliable data, with daily updates from Norway, Netherlands, and Spain (NoNeSp), and monthly updates from all the other countries.
In NoNeSp, deliveries of Model S has already passed Q1 deliveries, and may beat by as much as 50%. Model X deliveries haven’t passed Q1 yet, but are on pace to do so. Combined, S/X numbers look to be 30-40% higher than Q1. Still lower than the numbers we were getting in 2017-18, but a big rebound. Model 3 needs just over 3k more deliveries in 6 days to match Q1 numbers, but Tesla delivered over 3400 in the last 6 days of Q1, so it could happen. If they miss, it won’t be by much.
Elsewhere in Europe, the first 2 months of the quarter were well ahead of the first 2 months of Q1. We don’t have any solid info on June deliveries, but the surge in Norway, Netherlands, and Spain is likely happening across Europe. The arrival of Model 3 in the UK and Ireland could juice the numbers a couple thousand, but I wouldn’t expect it to make a massive difference. 20-25k total vehicles is the likely range (22,999 were delivered in Q1), and I’ll assume 23k.
In NoNeSp, deliveries of Model S has already passed Q1 deliveries, and may beat by as much as 50%. Model X deliveries haven’t passed Q1 yet, but are on pace to do so. Combined, S/X numbers look to be 30-40% higher than Q1. Still lower than the numbers we were getting in 2017-18, but a big rebound. Model 3 needs just over 3k more deliveries in 6 days to match Q1 numbers, but Tesla delivered over 3400 in the last 6 days of Q1, so it could happen. If they miss, it won’t be by much.
Elsewhere in Europe, the first 2 months of the quarter were well ahead of the first 2 months of Q1. We don’t have any solid info on June deliveries, but the surge in Norway, Netherlands, and Spain is likely happening across Europe. The arrival of Model 3 in the UK and Ireland could juice the numbers a couple thousand, but I wouldn’t expect it to make a massive difference. 20-25k total vehicles is the likely range (22,999 were delivered in Q1), and I’ll assume 23k.
I don't think large institution investors take TslaQ very seriously.
Tesla is highly capital intensive selling an early adopter product that is still niche(by definition, since 1% of all car sells end up being a Tesla). So compounding a poor macro environment, a long bull market everyone thinks it's going to end thanks to the trade war, and Tesla showing a huge loss despite promising profit from Model 3 ramp up on..you'll end up with the current SP. Tesla is not exactly a software company(yet), Their margins are pretty thin and as Q1 showed, logistical problems can tank the company. People are trading this company with caution and I don't disagree. They are just being responsible to their investors, unlike us here who invest in this company in a very nutty way.
Sad, but accurate. I remember a great deal of speculation on this thread of an upside surprise.
1Q numbers were a gut punch to weak longs.
I hope investors don’t over-bet on the “chance for a record quarter“ comments this quarter.
Please remember the “chance for a small profit” comments about 1Q.
While true that everyone should be cautious, it’s worth noting that those two comments came at very different times in the quarter. The more equivalent comments about Q1 would be “expecting a small loss” during the Model 3 SR announcement.
Doggydogworld
Active Member
Not quite. 28,425 in April+May vs. 29,900 in Q1.
Tesla delivers crazy amounts of cars the final week of the quarter, especially in California. Also, Electrek's numbers are a little inconsistent, e.g. 22k in June plus the 30.5k in April/May from their June 5th report would put them above 52k today. They also said they were at 33k on June 5 with another 10k deliveries scheduled and 6k more orders matched to VINs (i.e. car was produced and sitting on a lot, but transport not yet scheduled). That's 49k right there and they've certainly delivered some cars that weren't yet ordered or VIN-matched on the 5th.
I also find it hard to believe they'd set June bonuses based on 33k and 36k if production and order flow only supported 25-28k. Even Tesla management isn't that bad. This sounds a lot more like the traditional EOQ logistics chaos, due to "the wave". They'll scramble this week and do deals with people who want the 3750 tax credit and are willing to take a slightly different config than they ordered. I don't know if they'll make the 63-66k goal, but I still think they'll get close.
And they'll once again promise to unwind the wave next quarter. This time, they'll really mean it!
Esme Es Mejor
Member
North America and Europe should account for at least 75k deliveries, and possibly as much as 83k. If they combine for 83k, a record quarter should be in the bag. If they’re more like 75-80k, we’ll need a strong contribution from China and the rest of the world.
China. Long-term, we all know China is a huge market, but short-term it’s a black box. We have positive anecdotes and sales estimates that conflict with other sales estimates, are internally inconsistent, and have no track record or known basis. The estimates I’ve seen suggest 4-5k through the first 2 months of the quarter— this projects to 7-8k quarterly deliveries if June is flat, 10k+ if June has the normal end of quarter push. But, unless anyone has access to government or Tesla data, it all seems to be a wild guess.
Rest of world. This is normally a small enough amount that it doesn’t matter. The start of Model 3 deliveries in Australia (unless they don’t start until Q3) may juice these numbers, but— until someone gives me a reason to think RoW numbers are significantly higher than normal— I’ll continue assuming they won’t make a difference in Q2.
China. Long-term, we all know China is a huge market, but short-term it’s a black box. We have positive anecdotes and sales estimates that conflict with other sales estimates, are internally inconsistent, and have no track record or known basis. The estimates I’ve seen suggest 4-5k through the first 2 months of the quarter— this projects to 7-8k quarterly deliveries if June is flat, 10k+ if June has the normal end of quarter push. But, unless anyone has access to government or Tesla data, it all seems to be a wild guess.
Rest of world. This is normally a small enough amount that it doesn’t matter. The start of Model 3 deliveries in Australia (unless they don’t start until Q3) may juice these numbers, but— until someone gives me a reason to think RoW numbers are significantly higher than normal— I’ll continue assuming they won’t make a difference in Q2.
Sure, but that can happen without a "dealership". The "galleries" (like in Texas as I assume you know) can provide a showroom, test drives, info, etc., then help you go online to buy a car (and check inventory).
I thought Tesla had pretty much put all those court challenges behind them.
Carl Raymond
Active Member
Must be a better word than ‘niche’ there. Tesla sell cars, the best car available for $40k. Cars are not niche.
Perhaps ‘in early stages of scaling’.
The NY Times also cannot find a war that they don't like. Vietnam, Iraq etc. etc.
Also, to those on this thread busy building gigafactories in the air
Elon Musk on Twitter
That's with a huge caveat of fully automated assembly Model 3, which did not happen.
What do you mean? Elon said profit from now going forward during the Q3 conference call. His statement did not have any contingencies on some kind of fully automated assembly. He did say "besides a recession' which was the only caveat.
Got my timing wrong but S/X production was down due to Raven upgrade and JIT delivery on Model 3 which failed in Europe and China.
I believe he also said except for quarters with large, one time payments, and cited Q1 as a possible example, at the time.
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